Matt Wallner Is Obliterating Baseballs

[bean5302]

Wallner's K rate was 31.5% last year. The K rate will come down. He's only had 403 PA at the MLB level, still really like a rookie.

Aaron Judge was mentioned in this article. His first full season? 30.7%, then 30.5%, then 31.5%. It wasn't until Judge's age 28 season that his K rate dropped below 30%.

Wallner has solid plate coverage and he's not weak against any major pitch types with 80 grade raw power. He will figure it out, and he'll keep improving.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

That's just not even close to true. There's plenty of HR hitters with good K rates. 

Juan Soto, Anthony Santander, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, et al.

I get what you're saying, and they shouldn't try to change Wallner as a hitter but rather refine his skillset. But there are plenty of big power guys with good contact. 

Listing 4 of the maybe top 6 HR efficiency guys in the GAME. Is Matt Wallner that? Do we expect that of Matt Wallner?……Freddie Freeman - Carlos Santana - Ryan Jeffers - etc., I get it…….

12 guys out of maybe 150-200 guys considered to be significant HR threats……..8–10% to me, that’s not “plenty of HR hitters”, they are big time outliers. Not talking about guys that might hit 20 HR in a good year……Wallner has 35 HR power with enough PA’s. HR “threats” are guys that could hit 30 in a season, IMO.

Wallner has struck out at near or around 40% rate……..saying he’s be better at under 20%, again to me, is a fantasy baseball thought - he’s not that guy. He won’t be that guy at 32 or 36 either.

[LA Vikes Fan]

59 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

17 Ks in 33 PAs prior to demotion = 51.5% 

19Ks in 51 PAs after promotion = 37.2%

Thanks. 

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner's K rate was 31.5% last year. The K rate will come down. He's only had 403 PA at the MLB level, still really like a rookie.

Aaron Judge was mentioned in this article. His first full season? 30.7%, then 30.5%, then 31.5%. It wasn't until Judge's age 28 season that his K rate dropped below 30%.

Wallner has solid plate coverage and he's not weak against any major pitch types with 80 grade raw power. He will figure it out, and he'll keep improving.

Let's be serious. Judge struck out at a rate 5% lower than Wallner in the minors. Using him as a comp, expecting Matt to drop his K rate from 37% down to 27% is ignoring reality. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner's K rate was 31.5% last year. The K rate will come down. He's only had 403 PA at the MLB level, still really like a rookie.

Aaron Judge was mentioned in this article. His first full season? 30.7%, then 30.5%, then 31.5%. It wasn't until Judge's age 28 season that his K rate dropped below 30%.

Wallner has solid plate coverage and he's not weak against any major pitch types with 80 grade raw power. He will figure it out, and he'll keep improving.

Completely agree…..hitters mature……they start to understand what certain pitchers are trying to do……..I just think 20% K rate is an unattainable number for Wallner, while maintaining 30 HR power over a season. I think 30% is a great goal - if he gets below that he’s a Superstar……he may be that at 35%?

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Listing 4 of the maybe top 6 HR efficiency guys in the GAME. Is Matt Wallner that? Do we expect that of Matt Wallner?……Freddie Freeman - Carlos Santana - Ryan Jeffers - etc., I get it…….

12 guys out of maybe 150-200 guys considered to be significant HR threats……..8–10% to me, that’s not “plenty of HR hitters”, they are big time outliers. Not talking about guys that might hit 20 HR in a good year……Wallner has 35 HR power with enough PA’s. HR “threats” are guys that could hit 30 in a season, IMO.

Wallner has struck out at near or around 40% rate……..saying he’s be better at under 20%, again to me, is a fantasy baseball thought - he’s not that guy. He won’t be that guy at 32 or 36 either.

It's a heck of a lot closer to "plenty" than "none". And if it's 10% of hitters its not an outlier. It's just that Matt isn't good enough. Which is fine. He's fine. He's worthy of being a Major Leaguer in a platoon situation. But let's not pretend he's anything not way closer to being Joey Gallo with bad defense than an actual elite hitter. He's not Gallo because I expect 33% K instead of 40% but that frustration we have will resurface when his luck starts turning again. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

To be completely honest, he will almost certainly never be an everyday player for an entire season on a good team. His skillset is limited and he can be a good contributor on a good team in smaller capacity. I really hope the Twins don't think he's the every day RF in 2025. 

He put up over two war in half a year last year. What do you base this on?

[NYCTK]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

He put up over two war in half a year last year. What do you base this on?

His inability to hit LHP, a 37% K rate, and mediocre defense...

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

29 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

And this is why I was in favor of the Twins going for it this season. This is not a great outfield. With both of them they'd grade out as a bad defensively and slow, even if Buxton remains healthy like this season. The Twins have an exciting infield obviously but that OF is very much held together with duct tape. 

Martin (and Larnach tbh) is another in a long list of examples why you shouldn't instinctively be afraid to trade Top 100 prospects...

I'm not sure I agree with this, Larnach is actually pretty athletic and not a bad OF.  Wallner lumbers a bit but has a strong arm, should be a solid RF. Martin has the athletic ability to be a superior OF. I think he just needs the reps out there. And that's without counting Castro who's actually a pretty good OF and has some real speed. He's an OF/UTL next year - Lee is going to take over at 2B. Actually our worst defensive OF is Margot and he won't be with the team next year. None of those guys is as good as Kepler, but all are better than Margot, and Larnach, Castro, and Wallner all hit better than Kepler. I think our OF defense will be as good next year as it is this year IF Buxton stays healthy and could be better if Martin improves and/or we get a glove first 4th OF. 

I do agree that trading Larnach might have been a good thing if there was a market. He and Wallner have pretty redundant skillsets and Wallner looks like he has a higher hitting upside. We got Martin after the top 100 luster had worn off so trading him wasn't a great option. He's worth more to us than to anyone else. Good thing SWR is working out. That trade for Berrios is actually looking pretty even or maybe even in the Twins favor. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, NYCTK said:

His inability to hit LHP, a 37% K rate, and mediocre defense...

 

So, he's better than almost every LF last year, and you don't think he's a regular on any team? We have no idea if he can hit LH. They don't let him try. 

[DFlow]

Honestly I think the K rate is overblown. It's coming down a bit and you accept the good at the bad with Wallner/Buxton. These two already force the pitchers into uncomfortable positions and I think the at bats are fairly competitive even when they strikeout now. This was a bigger issue a year ago when the whole roster had inflated K rates, but outside of Castro the K rates are well down from a year ago. These hitters really put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers which is exciting to see and I think adding a guy like Santana really helps offset your Buxton and Wallners in the lineup with his patient approach. 

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Completely agree…..hitters mature……they start to understand what certain pitchers are trying to do……..I just think 20% K rate is an unattainable number for Wallner, while maintaining 30 HR power over a season. I think 30% is a great goal - if he gets below that he’s a Superstar……he may be that at 35%?

Oh yeah, Wallner's almost certainly never going to get down to 20%. But 28-29% can totally happen. He was at 31.5% last year, and I do think the very bad umpiring early this year messed with his head.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

His inability to hit LHP, a 37% K rate, and mediocre defense...

 

Wallner's hit LHP in the past like in 2022 when he OPS'd .911 against them in 150+ PA. I recall Julien and Kirilloff have always struggled against lefties so I don't have much hope of them turning things around, but Wallner is not going to improve while being constantly shielded from the experience.

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

and I do think the very bad umpiring early this year messed with his head.

Come on. That's loser mentality. If he was thrown so badly that a few small, bad calls made him become completely unplayable, then it goes to my point that he is not someone a good team should rely on to play every day. 

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, he's better than almost every LF last year, and you don't think he's a regular on any team? We have no idea if he can hit LH. They don't let him try. 

Regular, yes! Everyday player that you set it and forget it, no! 

He's a 400 PA player on a good team. And he'd likely hit close to 30 HRs in those PAs. 

[bean5302]

22 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm not sure I agree with this, Larnach is actually pretty athletic and not a bad OF.  Wallner lumbers a bit but has a strong arm, should be a solid RF. Martin has the athletic ability to be a superior OF. I think he just needs the reps out there. And that's without counting Castro who's actually a pretty good OF and has some real speed. He's an OF/UTL next year - Lee is going to take over at 2B. Actually our worst defensive OF is Margot and he won't be with the team next year. None of those guys is as good as Kepler, but all are better than Margot, and Larnach, Castro, and Wallner all hit better than Kepler. I think our OF defense will be as good next year as it is this year IF Buxton stays healthy and could be better if Martin improves and/or we get a glove first 4th OF. 

I do agree that trading Larnach might have been a good thing if there was a market. He and Wallner have pretty redundant skillsets and Wallner looks like he has a higher hitting upside. We got Martin after the top 100 luster had worn off so trading him wasn't a great option. He's worth more to us than to anyone else. Good thing SWR is working out. That trade for Berrios is actually looking pretty even or maybe even in the Twins favor. 

 

I don't understand how you connect Wallner and Larnach as similar except they're both lefties and typically play corner OF.

Larnach is a line drive hitter with average pop, but poor OBP. He has obvious glaring weaknesses against almost anything other than a 4 seamer, but he destroys 4 seamers. He's slow, has a weak arm, but great baseball instincts that keep him from being unplayable in the outfield.

Wallner is a fly ball hitter with elite power and good OBP. He's not weak against any pitches, but he doesn't excel against any, either. He's pretty fast, has a cannon arm, but poor baseball instincts which is the only thing keeping him from being an elite fielder. 

Larnach is a backup corner OF or a starter on a team with some injury issues or that is not trying to compete. Wallner is a potential All Star. They're just not similar.

[Azviking101]

4 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

in last 15 games he is still K-ing .. 19 times in 44 ab'S...  YES,the avg is very good ..but we already have enough KKings inthe lineup ..we needs guys King under 20%..then we'll have a ball team

The twins are the 9th best team in baseball at striking out this year. 
I heard that MLB.com added re-runs of some 80s seasons. You could just watch those and pretend those are real life

[arby58]

4 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

in last 15 games he is still K-ing .. 19 times in 44 ab'S...  YES,the avg is very good ..but we already have enough KKings inthe lineup ..we needs guys King under 20%..then we'll have a ball team

When you have an OPS approaching 1.000, you live with the Ks. In 1982, Reggie Jackson (the all-time leader in striking out) fanned 156 times - but also had 39 HR, 101 RBIs, a .907 OPS and finished 6th in MVP voting. Do you think anybody wished they had a Bert Campaneris-type guy in the line-up instead?

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

When you have an OPS approaching 1.000, you live with the Ks. In 1982, Reggie Jackson (the all-time leader in striking out) fanned 156 times - but also had 39 HR, 101 RBIs, a .907 OPS and finished 6th in MVP voting. Do you think anybody wished they had a Bert Campaneris-type guy in the line-up instead?

It's not that we're not happy with the results, we just understand it's not sustainable. Wallner isn't going to have a BABIP of .500 the rest of the season. I'm not gonna say he couldn't sustain a 10% HR rate though. He does have that kind power. 

[RpR]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner's hit LHP in the past like in 2022 when he OPS'd .911 against them in 150+ PA. I recall Julien and Kirilloff have always struggled against lefties so I don't have much hope of them turning things around, but Wallner is not going to improve while being constantly shielded from the experience.

No reason to believe he would improve facing them either.

[RpR]

There was a bit on a local TV sports saying Wallner had made some adjustments in his swing.

Time will tell if it is a permanent adjustment or if Joey Wallner returns.

 

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

No reason to believe he would improve facing them either.

I won't say he couldn't improve. His peripherals against lefties haven't been worlds different. But I don't have faith he'd improve enough to the point he's a good player combined with his bad defense. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, he's better than almost every LF last year, and you don't think he's a regular on any team? We have no idea if he can hit LH. They don't let him try. 

and yet he will be the full time starting out fielder next year?

I am not disagreeing with everything else you have said about him. His splits as a a major league major player (definitely small sample size) have been horrendous, and based on what the Twins have done with him it doesn't look like they are going to give him much of a chance to improve on that.

IMO there is little to no chance they go into next year with Wallner and Larnach as full time starters (which people have stated) and a small chance either one of them are penciled in as full time starter. Also IMO unless some super star prospect powers their way into a full time role, we will see continue to see platoon types in quite a few positions.

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

No reason to believe he would improve facing them either.

.911 OPS isn't good enough for you? Yeah, sounds about right from the ultimate Matt Wallner hater, LOL

[Markdumont25]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

How hard a player hits the ball is a useful stat...to a point. But all HR count for the same amount of runs. I wish they didn't ooh and ah every time over it on tv/radio.

 

This is how I feel about dunks in basketball haha

[RpR]

Just now, bean5302 said:

.911 OPS isn't good enough for you? Yeah, sounds about right from the ultimate Matt Wallner hater, LOL

A sub .100 BA earlier says you go by wishful thinking.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I won't say he couldn't improve. His peripherals against lefties haven't been worlds different. But I don't have faith he'd improve enough to the point he's a good player combined with his bad defense. 

 

I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe he's a bad outfielder. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

.911 OPS isn't good enough for you? Yeah, sounds about right from the ultimate Matt Wallner hater, LOL

Isn't that against righties this year? What does that have to do with improving against lefties? It isn't like the Twins are even letting him try.

[NYCTK]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't that against righties this year? What does that have to do with improving against lefties? It isn't like the Twins are even letting him try.

That was against LHP in the minors in 2022 or something. It's nice to see. But then you notice he had massive splits in AAA this year as well. So...I wouldn't hold my breath that he can figure it out. 

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe he's a bad outfielder. 

He's never passed the eye test for me, and he's 5 runs below average in metrics. Which, in 2/3 a season of PAs isn't the worst. But not exactly something that gets me excited.