Twins Pursuing Rental Starting Pitching At Trade Deadline

[bean5302]

Paxton to the Red Sox.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/dodgers-trade-james-paxton-red-sox.html

[Vanimal46]

The Rangers of course are heating up so now I doubt they’re selling anyone. I would have loved getting Eovaldi or reach for the stars with Scherzer. 

[bean5302]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Not to mention, the Twins payroll constraints are entirely self imposed. A 1 year deal for $30m is well within what they should be spending anyway. And getting a potential top starter on a one year deal is damn near perfect but damn near impossible. 

Personally, I'd trade Pablo Lopez, Chris Paddack this offseason and use the farm to acquire cost controlled upper rotation arms if they're so hard up for cash. If the Twins want to be like the "Rays" or "Guardians" this is how they operate. Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris really need to work out.

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Personally, I'd trade Pablo Lopez, Chris Paddack this offseason and use the farm to acquire cost controlled upper rotation arms if they're so hard up for cash. If the Twins want to be like the "Rays" or "Guardians" this is how they operate. Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris really need to work out.

Imagine thinking Pablo should ever be on the table. Yuck

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 7/19/2024 at 7:27 AM, LambchoP said:

Both these guys should help with the playoffs push. Prefer Flaherty over Kikuchi, but both could take the rotation spot of Paddack down the stretch so we could stick him in the bullpen like last year. Of course that plan depends on the rotation staying healthy the rest of the way. Twins are one or two injuries away from starting Festa Dobnak or Boushley...

Almost no chance the Twins get Flaherty.  The Tigers can put the QO on him, meaning you have to give them something better than a high-30's draft pick next year.

[Cap'n Piranha]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Imagine thinking Pablo should ever be on the table. Yuck

I'd say it makes sense to trade Pablo in order to open up payroll space, but what would have more impact (and be available for "only" $20Mish/year) than a starting pitcher with the ceiling of Game 1 caliber Ace?

 

That said, if the Orioles wanted to trade us Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and Jackson Holliday for Pablo, I'd drive from Seattle to Minneapolis to help Pablo pack, then give him a piggyback ride to MSP.

 

Obviously that's a ridiculous example, but it serves the purpose of proving my point; any player, regardless of who they are, should always be on the block for the right offer.

[Cap'n Piranha]

29 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Not to mention, the Twins payroll constraints are entirely self imposed. A 1 year deal for $30m is well within what they should be spending anyway. And getting a potential top starter on a one year deal is damn near perfect but damn near impossible. 

I love the self-imposed comment.  Just for clarity's sake--do you expect the Pohlads to lose money on the team in any given year?  Also, since you claim to know what they should be spending, are you saying that you either A) have a better handle on the Twins' finances than the owners, or B) that the Pohlads are now deliberately underspending in order to increase profit?

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'd say it makes sense to trade Pablo in order to open up payroll space, but what would have more impact (and be available for "only" $20Mish/year) than a starting pitcher with the ceiling of Game 1 caliber Ace?

Yeah, no. Payroll space is only so valuable. It’s not more valuable than Pablo. That line of thinking is just beyond ridiculous today 

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I love the self-imposed comment.  Just for clarity's sake--do you expect the Pohlads to lose money on the team in any given year?  Also, since you claim to know what they should be spending, are you saying that you either A) have a better handle on the Twins' finances than the owners, or B) that the Pohlads are now deliberately underspending in order to increase profit?

I don't believe the Pohlads have ever lost money in any year owning the Twins, with the probable exception of 2020. I would assume in 2020 they took a bath, like many entertainment and public service businesses. 

I have no doubt the Twins made money last year with a payroll north of $150M, and would do so again this year.

Team values increase pretty much every year, and have for decades. Billionaires don't pay for businesses that lose money. That's not how they got to be billionaires. If the Twins were losing money, the franchise value wouldn't have increased from the $44M Carl paid to whatever they could sell the franchise for today. $1.5B?

Are you claiming a person smart enough to have the cash necessary to buy the Twins at $1.5B would do so expecting to lose money? 

[Cap'n Piranha]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't believe the Pohlads have ever lost money in any year owning the Twins, with the probable exception of 2020. I would assume in 2020 they took a bath, like many entertainment and public service businesses. 

I have no doubt the Twins made money last year with a payroll north of $150M, and would do so again this year.

Team values increase pretty much every year, and have for decades. Billionaires don't pay for businesses that lose money. That's not how they got to be billionaires. If the Twins were losing money, the franchise value wouldn't have increased from the $44M Carl paid to whatever they could sell the franchise for today. $1.5B?

Are you claiming a person smart enough to have the cash necessary to buy the Twins at $1.5B would do so expecting to lose money? 

Very nice.  None of it answers my question.  Do you expect the Pohlads to lose money on the Twins in any given year?

I think a person who bought the Twins for $1.5B would expect to make money (unless they're Steve Cohen, and just want it for vanity purposes).  As someone smart enough to have accumulated $1.5B in transferable assets, I further am sure that individual would understand that in order to turn a profit, there would have to be a SELF-IMPOSED salary cap; since the MLBPA adamantly refuses to accept one, every team's spending limits are, by definition, self-imposed.

Accordingly, I ask again; do you expect the owners of the Twins, whether it be the Pohlads or some hypothetical other individual/group, to lose money by supporting a payroll beyond what the annual revenues of the team can support?

[Cap'n Piranha]

27 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yeah, no. Payroll space is only so valuable. It’s not more valuable than Pablo. That line of thinking is just beyond ridiculous today 

You missed my point.  My exact point was that the best thing the Twins could do with payroll space is sign a player like Pablo Lopez; therefore trading him for payroll space is inherently illogical.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Very nice.  None of it answers my question.  Do you expect the Pohlads to lose money on the Twins in any given year?

I think a person who bought the Twins for $1.5B would expect to make money (unless they're Steve Cohen, and just want it for vanity purposes).  As someone smart enough to have accumulated $1.5B in transferable assets, I further am sure that individual would understand that in order to turn a profit, there would have to be a SELF-IMPOSED salary cap; since the MLBPA adamantly refuses to accept one, every team's spending limits are, by definition, self-imposed.

Accordingly, I ask again; do you expect the owners of the Twins, whether it be the Pohlads or some hypothetical other individual/group, to lose money by supporting a payroll beyond what the annual revenues of the team can support?

No. And i answered your question.

Now answer mine: Do you believe the Twins lost money last year?

Or would this year, with a similar payroll?

[Cap'n Piranha]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

No. And i answered your question.

Now answer mine: Do you believe the Twins lost money last year?

Or would this year, with a similar payroll?

You did answer a question, it just wasn't mine.  You stated that you believe the Pohlads have never lost money, 2020 excepted (I'd argue possibly in 2021 as well, when in-person attendance was curtailed, at the least to begin the year).  That in no way answers whether you think they should lose money.  I understand you don't believe they have.  Do you think they should?

Having 0 access to any of the Twin's finances, I can't say for certainty whether they lost money last year.  I'm inclined to believe they did not, given the owners.  That said, I'm not sure why it is some scarlet letter for an owner of a thing to want to make money on it.

I think with a similar payroll this year, the Twins would lose money, since their revenues are down $15Mish on the broadcast TV side.  Their in-person attendance is also down about 1k a game, which at this point is probably somewhere around another $2.5M.  So to more thoroughly answer your question, I don't think that after running a $150M payroll, along with perhaps another $100M-$150M on all-other expenses (on-field staff, front office, operating Target Field, travel, draft bonuses, international signings just to name a few), the Twins still had profits in excess of $17.5M in 2023.

Next year, when the Twins might very well only get $10M to $15M in TV money?  I absolutely believe a $150M payroll would lose money.  A $120M payroll might as well.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

You did answer a question, it just wasn't mine.  You stated that you believe the Pohlads have never lost money, 2020 excepted (I'd argue possibly in 2021 as well, when in-person attendance was curtailed, at the least to begin the year).  That in no way answers whether you think they should lose money.  I understand you don't believe they have.  Do you think they should?

Having 0 access to any of the Twin's finances, I can't say for certainty whether they lost money last year.  I'm inclined to believe they did not, given the owners.  That said, I'm not sure why it is some scarlet letter for an owner of a thing to want to make money on it.

I think with a similar payroll this year, the Twins would lose money, since their revenues are down $15Mish on the broadcast TV side.  Their in-person attendance is also down about 1k a game, which at this point is probably somewhere around another $2.5M.  So to more thoroughly answer your question, I don't think that after running a $150M payroll, along with perhaps another $100M-$150M on all-other expenses (on-field staff, front office, operating Target Field, travel, draft bonuses, international signings just to name a few), the Twins still had profits in excess of $17.5M in 2023.

Next year, when the Twins might very well only get $10M to $15M in TV money?  I absolutely believe a $150M payroll would lose money.  A $120M payroll might as well.

I don't think the Pohlads should lose money. 

But I don't think it's even worth considering. 

 

 

[ashbury]

28 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

As someone smart enough to have accumulated $1.5B in transferable assets, I further am sure...

Congratulations.  Most of us here have accumulated far less.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I love the self-imposed comment.  Just for clarity's sake--do you expect the Pohlads to lose money on the team in any given year?  Also, since you claim to know what they should be spending, are you saying that you either A) have a better handle on the Twins' finances than the owners, or B) that the Pohlads are now deliberately underspending in order to increase profit?

I was on board with the Pohlads losing money until this year's analysis was released projecting the Twins having made $19MM in operating income last year. It made sense to be cautious to cut payroll down to where they did, but not to keep it here if the team was in contention and had needs for the playoffs.

The Pohlads also chose to stick with Diamond Sports and Dave St. Peter despite the president and CEO missing goal after goal these past few years. The Pohlads chose incompetence so asking the fans to bail them out feels disingenuous. 

[DJL44]

MLB made $378M per team last year and 48% of the revenue is pooled which gives the Twins $182M in revenue without selling a single ticket or hot dog.

[DJL44]

Eflin to the Orioles. That is a great trade for the birds.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Another one down. Eflin to Baltimore for 3 prospects.  Getting more and more to look like Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, or bust. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-zach-eflin-from-rays.html

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Congratulations.  Most of us here have accumulated far less.

Yes, not my most elegant turn of phrase, haha!

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think the Pohlads should lose money. 

But I don't think it's even worth considering. 

 

 

So you are therefore in support of self-imposed payroll limitations for the Twins.  Whether they set appropriate ones or not is a debate for a different time and place.  But we are in agreement that there is a point at which fans can not be upset that the Twins stopped spending on payroll, and that point is the level at which the team becomes unprofitable.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Another one down. Eflin to Baltimore for 3 prospects.  Getting more and more to look like Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, or bust. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-zach-eflin-from-rays.html

In this trade, for a Minnesota angle, one of the prospects is Mac Horvath. He was a 2nd round pick in 2023 out of the university of Carolina, but he grew up and played baseball through high school in Austin, MN. Hopefully he gets a shot at some point

[tony&rodney]

The focus on payroll and the owners is pointless. We know that the New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston, and maybe a few more have access to more money via their market. MLB has a different reality than the NFL, NBA, and NHL. The Twins have more than enough money allocated for their team. Falvey has the team he wanted. A reasonable trade can happen but it is entirely possible that Falvey has little interest in putting a deal together. We will see soon enough.

[USAFChief]

Lots of rumors over at MLBTradeRumors.com

 

Just not any involving the Twins. 

[cmoss84]

On 7/26/2024 at 2:20 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Another one down. Eflin to Baltimore for 3 prospects.  Getting more and more to look like Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, or bust. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/orioles-to-acquire-zach-eflin-from-rays.html

Jake. Irvin.

Not a rental. But would be amazing.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Lots of rumors over at MLBTradeRumors.com

 

Just not any involving the Twins. 

Evergreen post. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Evergreen post. 

This is how this front office has always worked. They never give off smoke signals for anything. It’s annoying for those of us who hit f5 often during the day, but it’s fine 

[strumdatjag]

On 7/26/2024 at 1:03 PM, bean5302 said:

Paxton to the Red Sox.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/dodgers-trade-james-paxton-red-sox.html

One less lefty available.  The Twins need effective left-handed pitching.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

One less lefty available.  The Twins need effective left-handed pitching.  

Is Paxton still effective though? That’s a lot of walks this year with diminished velocity

[FargoFanMan]

I’d be willing to put a prospect package together to get Blake snell. To get him and have the giants cover a vast majority of his salary it may take a couple higher end prospects but I don’t really like kikuchi or any of the rest of the rentals. Based on some of these other trades teams are making am I in the ballpark on sending them Andrew Morris to acquire him. Then sending them Luke Keaschall and CJ Culpepper in order for the Giants to send 12-13M with Snell to cover his salary next year if he exercises his option? If he doesn’t they’re sending cash which the twins “seem” to need and it just goes in the pot for next year to cover some of the pay raises. This gets the twins a top of the rotation arm. Covers his 15M next year if he exercises his option to where we’re only paying a few million. Uses some prospects that don’t really have a spot come next year. Not indispensable prospects but “fair” value for a top arm. Also you get some money from the giants. Might be a creative way to get him. Takes prospects but you gotta trade value to get value.