Should the Twins Trade For This Under-the-Radar New York Mets Reliever?

[Cody Schoenmann]

He's far from a star, but could a late-blooming Mets setup man become the next bright light in the Twins bullpen?

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Since Derek Falvey took over as the Minnesota Twins' President of Baseball Operations after the 2016 MLB season, he's traded for the following MLB-caliber relievers at the Trade Deadline:

• 2017 - Gabriel Moya
• 2018 - N/A
• 2019 - Sergio Romo, Sam Dyson
• 2020 - N/A
• 2021 - John Gant (technically a reliever, but started seven of the 14 games he pitched with Minnesota)
• 2022 - Jorge López, Michael Fulmer
• 2023 - Dylan Floro

The Twins have traded for a reliever in five of Falvey's first seven seasons at the helm, taking swings on high-leverage, late-inning arms like Romo, Dyson (a horrible person, I know), Fulmer, and (most notably) López. Floro wasn't a buy, per se. Still, the team acquired the veteran righty with hopes of him blossoming into a steady arm that theoretically could have been used in mid-to-high leverage moments as the team pursued their third American League Central title in five seasons.

Although the Twins are five games behind the seemingly indomitable force that is the first-place Cleveland Guardians, they hold the second Wild Card spot, with the resurgent Boston Red Sox and regressing Kansas City Royals two games behind. They're in the thick of contention, with FanGraphs giving them an 85.6% chance of earning a playoff spot. Having found themselves in this advantageous position, the front office will likely scour the relief market over the next month, hoping to fortify the seventh-best bullpen in MLB (according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR)). New York Mets right-handed reliever Reed Garrett could be the apple of the Twins front office's eye.

Garrett, 31, was selected by the Texas Rangers in the 16th round of the 2014 MLB Draft, out of Virginia Military Institute (VMI). He spent the 2014 through 2018 seasons progressing from Low-A to Triple-A in Texas's farm system, before getting selected by the Detroit Tigers in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft. He appeared in 13 games as a reliever for Detroit, posting an uninspiring 8.22 ERA, 7.19 FIP, 59 ERA+, and 10-to-13 strikeout-to-walk-ratio over 15 1/3 innings pitched. The Tigers designated Garrett for assignment in mid-May.

Returned to the Rangers organization, Garrett spent the remainder of the 2018 season with their Triple-A affiliate before confronting a career crossroads. He signed with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) in 2019. The journeyman wouldn't make his return to the United States until 2022, when he signed a minor-league deal with the Nationals. He didn't stick there, though, and was designated for assignment by both Washington and the Orioles by the middle of 2023, when he was claimed by the Mets.

New York was no instant balm for him. However, the nomadic 31-year-old reliever finally turned things around early in the 2024 campaign. Garrett burst onto the scene this spring, carving out a 0.57 ERA, 1.94 FIP, and 2.21 xFIP while striking out 28 and walking seven over 15 2/3 innings pitched and 61 total batters faced in April. Since the start of May, the ERA is 4.56, so he's come back to Earth, but there are still encouraging things under the hood, including a strikeout rate right around 29%.

Garrett has been propelled into a prominent role, competing with fellow set-up relievers Adam Ottavino and Dedniel Núñez for high-leverage opportunities. The Mets were hot in June, posting a 16-8 record. New York's resurgence has placed them just two games out of the third and final National League Wild Card spot. However, the team's good fortunes could go for naught, as FanGraphs estimates the Mets have a mere 36% chance of earning a Wild Card spot. If New York reverts to their early season struggles, the organization could elect to part ways with expendable veteran players to net controllable prospect capital, and the invigorated Garrett is a prime trade piece.

With closer Jhoan Durán undergoing an alarming dip in four-seam fastball velocity and uncertainty surrounding when or if set-up relievers Brock Stewart and Justin Topa can return to the Twins' bullpen, the front office could be incentivized to acquire another high-leverage right-handed arm. Garrett gets to that gaudy strikeout rate in impressive fashion. He is a true five-pitch reliever, using the following pitches to generate one of the highest whiff and chase rates in MLB:

• Splitter - 24.6%
• Cutter - 24.2%
• Sweeper - 22.8%
• Four-seam fastball - 18.4%
• Sinker - 10%

The hard-tossing veteran’s repertoire aligns with the organization's preferences, making him an appealing option for a team needing a high-leverage, right-handed reliever whose services could be acquired at a price even the Twins' frugal ownership group could stomach. It'll be interesting to see whether he's available to them over the next few weeks.

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[LambchoP]

I think we'll have enough righties in our bullpen. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Topa...maybe Varland or Paddack. What we need is a high octane lefty. Oh, and a playoff caliber starter would really help too. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

This guy might be worth a shot if the price is a AA or below player without huge upside, but no more than that. I do think we need another LH reliever, someone better than Funderburk or Okert. I just don’t think this guy really fits the bill and there’s a big risk that he just had a hot month or two and is more like the 4.56 ERA guy he’s been lately. I wouldn’t want to give up much to see if he can go back to where he was earlier in the year. Certainly nobody on the top 30 prospect list. 
 

I know I keep saying this, but we need to be talking to the Angels about Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estevez. The Angels need OF bats in the worst way so they might be willing to take a package centered around Larnach OR Keirsey plus Schobel or something equivalent. Anderson has a reasonably priced contract for next year. Estevez is just a rental but he has been lights out this season. 

[Fatbat]

There is nothing inspiring about the rental RPs from the past 5/7 seasons. Its time to buy a highend SP for a deep playoff run. 
 

If ya want to stay cheap and throw something back in the guardians face, go get Cal Quantrill from the rockies. He can eat innings so Paddack and Varland can be bullpenned. 
 

Or spend more capital on a hometown kid, Jake Irvin is having a season with the Nationals. 
 

just don’t buy junk.

[RpR]

NO!

[4twinsJA]

Not great results in past. Does not hurt to take flier on someone if price not too high. Just can't see Twins spending the money or prospects to acquire a true difference maker.

[old nurse]

Maybe the team can trade an underperforming reliever that will blossom once he quits using his slider so much and a future depth starter to go get this Mets pitcher. A career year at this point. What could go wrong?

[bean5302]

Dude looks like Rocco. Pass. LOL

[Mortimerkenny21]

Maybe he's under the radar for a reason and going to stay there...undetected. 

[ashbury]

Jorge Lopez 2.0.  No thanks.

[Eric Blonigen]

His walk rates are pretty high, and he’s really only been good for a couple months of his career, at 31 years old. If we could get him for a low-A lottery ticket outside our top-30 prospects, then sure, why not. However, once we get Stewart and (hopefully) Topa back, I don’t know if he would even be on the roster. He would be clearly behind Duran/Stewart/Jax/Topa/Alcala. Probably behind Staumont. They aren’t likely to cut bait with Thielbar unless he REALLY starts to struggle. Is he clearly better than Funderburk, Okert, and Sands? If he’s not a significant upgrade over them, then I would rather save all trade capital (and roster spots) for a frontline starting pitcher.

[Sjoski]

Based on past performance. Falvey will do better to just sit on his hands.

 

[Eris]

I am expecting the Mets to be buyers. NY is a very unforgiving market and fans will not take kindly to selling when their team is still in the race. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

I am expecting the Mets to be buyers. NY is a very unforgiving market and fans will not take kindly to selling when their team is still in the race. 

Yes. Currently 2.5 games out of the race, and they've shown themselves to be willing to spend even when they shouldn't. 

But if they do fall out of the race, I'd rather have Ottavino. Much more of a track record. Has a 1.106 WHIP over the last three seasons. ERA is lifted by 1 run thanks to a single outing. 3.25 K/BB ratio. Free agent after the year, so not as expensive. 

[NYCTK]

The vibes are incredibly high in Queens right now. And their bullpen sucks. They're not selling from their weakness and signaling to their fans that they're quitting. Two bad weeks after the break, maybe. But Reed has been used heavily and already looks his old self again. 

 

Pass and not even worth discussing. 

[Otaknam]

Another journeyman reliever finally having a decent season is right in Falvey’s sweet spot for trade. Sarcastically, he would make the trade if the guy has a recent injury history, as has often been the case. 

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

Hard pass. A 29% K-rate since the start of May is encouraging after his hot April, but he's also walking 12.2% of hitters and has allowed 1.7 HR/9 as well. (There's also a .280 batting average allowed, but a BABIP in the .370s is to blame there.) He's only worth acquiring as the last reliever in the bullpen or as Triple-A depth (if he can even be optioned), not a 6th- or 7th-inning reliever.