Alex Kirilloff needs to Step Up

[stringer bell]

Since he arrived on the scene for a playoff game in the COVID year, I've been a fan of Alex Kirilloff. A first round draft choice, Kirilloff was projected to be a dynamic hitter with power to all fields. He chose to wear my favorite number (19) and his middle name is my first name. Back in 2022, when writing a blog entry as the season opened, I opined that Kirilloff had the floor of Mark Grace offense and Will Clark defense and the ceiling of Will Clark offense and Mark Grace defense. I watched AK do drills before COVID hit and thought he looked very smooth as a left handed throwing first baseman. Since then, Alex has been dogged by injuries. He had two wrist procedures as well as a shoulder surgery. We've seen glimpses of a great hitter, including winning player of the week last year in July. However, there hasn't been sustained production and the Twins have used him more as a left fielder and DH than as a first baseman. 

Kirilloff had a good spring training in 2024 and came out of the gate as about the only Twin to hit the ball hard in the first couple weeks of the season. Since the hot start, Kirilloff hasn't produced much. Yes, he had a couple of homers that helped win games and a walk-off single in a game where he struck out four times. The batting average has sunk to the low .200s, and there has been minimal power. Strikeouts are up, walks are down. Soft contact is up, line drives and hard-hit balls are down. 

The longer view also isn't kind. AK will turn 27 this offseason, so he is no longer young as a baseball player. His defense is regarded as a liability in the outfield--he never was projected as better than adequate in the corner outfield--and a 38-year-old is taking about 90% of the reps at first base. Because of the perceived weaknesses as a defender, Alex is getting less than normal at-bats as a platoon player and he is strictly platooned. In the last month, he has averaged less than two and a half plate appearances per game. So far, he's only had eight plate appearances versus left handers this season. It now seems very doubtful that he is the answer as a regular player batting in the middle of the order on a daily basis. AK didn't start in a game where a right handed started last week and he's generally moved down to the bottom of the order after hitting at the top early in the season. Jose Miranda has started a couple games at first base, moving Kirilloff to either left or DH.

Many had written off Miranda and Trevor Larnach and each has reclaimed major league status with hopeful returns to the majors. It's probably too early to write off Kirilloff as well, but I believe the clock is ticking. AK has an option remaining and if Edouard Julien or Matt Wallner or Brooks Lee force their way on the major league roster, Kirilloff would be a logical choice to earn a trip to St. Paul.

There has been no word of injuries hindering Kirilloff's performance, but given his history I think there is some suspicion that he's not 100%. The club has recently gone into another deep hitting funk and getting productivity from Kirlloff as a left fielder, DH or first baseman is needed. It is truly time for Kirilloff to produce and maybe it is now or never.

[DJL44]

I think he's Randy Bush 2.0.

[chpettit19]

He looks caught in between to me. A trip to AAA to get himself back on track at some point may be the best idea. With Julien playing 1B in St Paul, I wouldn't be surprised to see that swap take place in the next few weeks if Julien can get himself locked in again. 

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

if Julien can get himself locked in again. 

Julien has looked worse for the Saints than he did for the Twins; he is lost at the plate. This will be a big week for him. Maybe he rebounds from the past. I was hoping that Julien would be sent down to Ft. Myers to work on his swing. It sure looked to me like a combination of mental approach (hesitancy) and swing trigger was off.  Also, I may be the only one but I see Julien as a second baseman only. His lateral movement is fine. He played one game at 1B for the Saints because they wanted to use Tony Kemp at 2B and others elsewhere while thinking a day at 1B would be a possible positive change. Julien doesn't have the flexibility to play a good first base. Hopefully, for Julien and the Twins, the bat returns.

Does anyone else think that Kirilloff's swing looks slower than it did last year? AK looks like he is muscled up.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He looks caught in between to me. A trip to AAA to get himself back on track at some point may be the best idea. With Julien playing 1B in St Paul, I wouldn't be surprised to see that swap take place in the next few weeks if Julien can get himself locked in again. 

He has 800 MLB at-bats with an OPS+ of 102 and he's been protected vs LHP for most of his time in the major leagues. This might be about as good as it gets for Kirilloff.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He has 800 MLB at-bats with an OPS+ of 102 and he's been protected vs LHP for most of his time in the major leagues. This might be about as good as it gets for Kirilloff.

It might be. He's also played a lot of that time injured. I'm not making a statement one way or the other on how good he'll be, but he looks like he's caught in between on his swings. He's had some very nice stretches when healthy in the past and now the league may be making adjustments to him and he needs to adjust back. 800 at bats is by no means a career defining amount. Especially when you're in and out of the lineup with injuries. He still has a very large spectrum of possible outcomes.

This may be as good as it gets for Wallner and Julien. Lewis may cool off. Jeffers has been all over in terms of production. That's the story of inexperienced MLB hitters. We don't know what any of them really are until their first struggles with MLB adjustments and then we see if they can figure it out from there. Still don't know what Miranda will end up as either. I'm not banking on or writing off any of them. I have more faith in some than others, but I'm not sold one way or the other on any of them (outside Lewis, I've been saying he's a star forever). This is why they have options. Sometimes they need to go back down and see if they can get right. That'd be my move with Kirilloff. If Keirsey were healthy and still performing, or Severino wasn't so terrible most of this year I'd make the switch now. But there's really nobody else down there I'd call up to do it now so I'd wait a couple more weeks.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Julien has looked worse for the Saints than he did for the Twins; he is lost at the plate. This will be a big week for him. Maybe he rebounds from the past. I was hoping that Julien would be sent down to Ft. Myers to work on his swing. It sure looked to me like a combination of mental approach (hesitancy) and swing trigger was off.  Also, I may be the only one but I see Julien as a second baseman only. His lateral movement is fine. He played one game at 1B for the Saints because they wanted to use Tony Kemp at 2B and others elsewhere while thinking a day at 1B would be a possible positive change. Julien doesn't have the flexibility to play a good first base. Hopefully, for Julien and the Twins, the bat returns.

Does anyone else think that Kirilloff's swing looks slower than it did last year? AK looks like he is muscled up.

I think Julien's problem is similar to what Larnach went through for yours, the league knows he can't hit breaking balls. Larnach seemed to struggle more with recognition while Julien's problem seems to be more of a swing problem. The league is not nice to guys when they find a major weakness. I don't like it if a guy has to go all the way down the org chart to fix his swing. If Julien can't fix himself in AAA he's probably not a piece the team needs to worry about. The real test is fixing himself without leaving the majors. Adjusting to adjustments is the name of the game. But he has options so going to AAA to fix things makes sense now.

I don't know what Kirilloff's swing speeds were last year, but they're not bad this year. 56th percentile isn't out of this world, but it's not the end of the world. He does have a pretty low "fast swing rate" even though he has an above average bat speed number. To me that's a sign he's either getting off really good swings or really bad ones, which is why I think he's caught in between. When he hits it he hits it well, though. His avg exit velo is 80th percentile so he's hitting the ball hard. The chases and swings and misses seem to be the biggest problems. Along with his launch angles (I know some people are going to hate that). 

[FlyingFinn]

I also thought Kirilloff was supposed to be a great defensive first baseman. The Twins really were planning for him to take over 1B. Signing Santana was probably a sign that they have changed their mind on that. The organizational draft backup was Sabato. He has been mostly terrible in the minors though he is doing okay in repeating AA this year, in a very small sample size due to injury. The Twins are a big mystery as to who will play 1B, even in 2025.

[Mike Sixel]

I literally have no idea what to think at this point. Other than I'd put Julien at first, and lee (or other) at second next year and see what happens.....if AK doesn't take off this year.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

The Twins are a big mystery as to who will play 1B, even in 2025.

Miranda has the job right now. He'll still be around next year.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Miranda has the job right now. He'll still be around next year.

I think it will be a Miranda/Julien rotation (with Julien at 2B some too).....unless Julien has forgotten how to hit, which I doubt.

[Vanimal46]

IIRC his last wrist surgery was quite severe in order to save his baseball career. Maybe all of those procedures sapped his power and swing speed? 

[In My La Z boy]

I wouldn't have thought Rooker would be a better pro either? Maybe he wouldn't have if we'd have kept him, and Alex was in Oakland? I am beginning to sour on our hitting development and on our player analysis. We are consistently inconsistent at the plate swinging at bad pitches and taking called 3rd strikes far too often as a team. 

[bean5302]

Kirilloff hasn't played injured. He's played "hurt" like every other baseball player has done, and it's no coincidence he performed essentially the same regardless of the type of injury; whether it's a wrist or a shoulder or whatever else. Basically a little below league average at the plate.

The sample size on Kirilloff is pretty big at this point, and we have seen sustained production from him, just not sustained, unsustainable production. Last year was an outlier where Kirilloff enjoyed a BABIP 35 points higher than his career efforts.

Kirilloff has mediocre power. He doesn't take walks. He's basically Nomar Mazara, who was out of baseball at age 27. The difference is the Twins didn't put it together as quickly as the Rangers did so the Twins are the White Sox in this scenario.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree with your premise. Larnach and Miranda appear to be passing Kirilloff in the hierarchy this season. There will very soon be no room left in the Inn for him. Frankly, I think he would already be in AAA if there was someone there with a strong case for promotion who wasn't injured. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff hasn't played injured. He's played "hurt" like every other baseball player has done, and it's no coincidence he performed essentially the same regardless of the type of injury; whether it's a wrist or a shoulder or whatever else. Basically a little below league average at the plate.

The sample size on Kirilloff is pretty big at this point, and we have seen sustained production from him, just not sustained, unsustainable production. Last year was an outlier where Kirilloff enjoyed a BABIP 35 points higher than his career efforts.

Kirilloff has mediocre power. He doesn't take walks. He's basically Nomar Mazara, who was out of baseball at age 27.

Harsh comp, but pretty accurate. A lot of folks thought Mazara was only one step from stardom in Texas and it just never came. Instead he regressed, much like Kirilloff is doing this year. Kirilloff's power is a conundrum. He seems to hit more deep or warning track fly ball outs to left center than any LH hitter I've ever seen. Yet he rarely hits a hard line drive to that same area and not much hard contact to right or right center. Is that launch angle thing, is he selling out for power, or is that just his "normal" stroke? Whatever it is, what he is doing is not working and is unlikely to work in the future.  

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Harsh comp, but pretty accurate. A lot of folks thought Mazara was only one step from stardom in Texas and it just never came. Instead he regressed, much like Kirilloff is doing this year. Kirilloff's power is a conundrum. He seems to hit more deep or warning track fly ball outs to left center than any LH hitter I've ever seen. Yet he rarely hits a hard line drive to that same area and not much hard contact to right or right center. Is that launch angle thing, is he selling out for power, or is that just his "normal" stroke? Whatever it is, what he is doing is not working and is unlikely to work in the future.  

Yup. Kirilloff (LHB) and Mazara (LHB) line up pretty well. Career numbers:
.256/.315/.414 OPS .719, .158 ISO, 7.3% BB, 22.0% K, wOBA .313
.249/.311/.414 OPS .715, .165 ISO, 7.0% BB, 24.1% K, wOBA .313
One is Kirilloff, one is Mazara.

Neither is/was a good outfielder, but Mazara was at least close to league average where Kirilloff has been a black hole, though he could probably get better with consistent playing time. Combining the non-terrible defense with his added playing time, that's why Mazara owns a career 2.1 fWAR and Kirilloff owns a career 0.2.

 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with your premise. Larnach and Miranda appear to be passing Kirilloff in the hierarchy this season. There will very soon be no room left in the Inn for him. Frankly, I think he would already be in AAA if there was someone there with a strong case for promotion who wasn't injured. 

The story of inexperienced MLB hitters. And why they have options. Miranda and Larnach were guys most around here had no desire for the Twins to rely on coming into this season. Now they're hitting somewhere between 1 and 5 in the order most games. It's why guys with options, and overall depth, are so nice. It takes the vast majority of players some ups and downs between the majors and minors to get things dialed in. Cutting guys loose early because you've decided who they are as a player generally isn't a solid strategy (trading them is different).

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff hasn't played injured. He's played "hurt" like every other baseball player has done, and it's no coincidence he performed essentially the same regardless of the type of injury; whether it's a wrist or a shoulder or whatever else. Basically a little below league average at the plate.

The sample size on Kirilloff is pretty big at this point, and we have seen sustained production from him, just not sustained, unsustainable production. Last year was an outlier where Kirilloff enjoyed a BABIP 35 points higher than his career efforts.

Kirilloff has mediocre power. He doesn't take walks. He's basically Nomar Mazara, who was out of baseball at age 27. The difference is the Twins didn't put it together as quickly as the Rangers did so the Twins are the White Sox in this scenario.

If having to have your wrist bone broken and shaved down because of the pain it causes doesn't count as injured, I don't know what does.

[bean5302]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

If having to have your wrist bone broken and shaved down because of the pain it causes doesn't count as injured, I don't know what does.

Players play with injuries that require offseason surgery to address all the time. Players play hurt all the time. Aches and pains are normal. Kirk Gibson won Game 1 of the 1988 World Series when he couldn't even jog.

When Kirilloff was in too much pain to play, the Twins didn't say, hey just use one arm, dude, you don't need a trip to the IL. They put Kirilloff on the IL. The Twins didn't ask Kirilloff to get back out there directly from the surgical recovery room, either.

The manipulation of context in your post is total BS.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Players play with injuries that require offseason surgery to address all the time. Players play hurt all the time. Aches and pains are normal. Kirk Gibson won Game 1 of the 1988 World Series when he couldn't even jog.

When Kirilloff was in too much pain to play, the Twins didn't say, hey just use one arm, dude, you don't need a trip to the IL. They put Kirilloff on the IL. The Twins didn't ask Kirilloff to get back out there directly from the surgical recovery room, either.

The manipulation of context in your post is total BS.

Except it didn't require "offseason surgery" it required in-season surgery. You're the one manipulating context. Alex Kirilloff played his last game in 2022 on August 1st and had surgery on August 16th. He played up until they decided they needed to literally shave his wrist bone down to fix the pain. It wasn't an acute injury that required surgery, it was a chronic injury that required surgery. Surgery that he had more or less immediately while in the middle of the season.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The story of inexperienced MLB hitters. And why they have options. Miranda and Larnach were guys most around here had no desire for the Twins to rely on coming into this season. Now they're hitting somewhere between 1 and 5 in the order most games. It's why guys with options, and overall depth, are so nice. It takes the vast majority of players some ups and downs between the majors and minors to get things dialed in. Cutting guys loose early because you've decided who they are as a player generally isn't a solid strategy (trading them is different).

Agreed there. My view is to option Kirilloff to AAA to try to fix his issues, not cut him, unless he has value in a trade. I think he has very little trade value right now, certainly not as a trade centerpiece. The only two in AAA who look like they might deserve a shot in MLB are Martin and Helman. Helman could help by playing 2B but really would be a replacement for Farmer unless we make Castro the every day LF and Helman the every day 2B. Martin gives us another RH OF where Margot has done very well lately - .429/.500.714 (.1,214) over the last 7 games (14 ABs), .346/.433/538 (. 973) over the last 15 (26 ABs). His last 30 games (67 ABs) might be the better comp - .269/.319/.358 (.677). The latter is kind of who he's been over his career.  He's really helped the last couple of weeks but is clearly at RH platoon player, not an everyday player.

So, the only answer I really see other than trotting Alex out there and hoping things improve would be to send Kirilloff to AAA to play 1B every day with Julien at 2B, and calling up Helman to play 2B on a regular basis with Farmer there a couple of days a week against LH pitching. Castro plays some OF when Buxton or Kepler sit, since he's a better RH hitter than LH, and around the diamond on other days to give guys breathers. Margot and Larnach are the LF platoon. Might not be a bad idea: Helman is 28, broke through in 2022 and 2023, and has continued to hit. If he's ever going to get a shot, pretty soon may be the only time.  

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

 

So, the only answer I really see other than trotting Alex out there and hoping things improve would be to send Kirilloff to AAA to play 1B every day with Julien at 2B, and calling up Helman to play 2B on a regular basis with Farmer there a couple of days a week against LH pitching. Castro plays some OF when Buxton or Kepler sit, since he's a better RH hitter than LH, and around the diamond on other days to give guys breathers. Margot and Larnach are the LF platoon. Might not be a bad idea: Helman is 28, broke through in 2022 and 2023, and has continued to hit. If he's ever going to get a shot, pretty soon may be the only time.  

I don't see how Helman's merits fit in with Kirilloff at all. Without Kirilloff, the Twins have Santana/Miranda at first base and DH and Larnach in left field. Willi Castro is a better player than Helman and shouldn't be moved aside so that he can play second base. It is much more likely that either Wallner or Julien are recalled than Helman comes up. As you noted, he is older, in fact older than both Julien and Wallner. I would suspect that if Julien isn't recalled to be a (mostly) regular second baseman, it would be Lee.

I've said before that I don't really trust AAA numbers and whether Helman is hitting or not, his best path to the big leagues is as a utility player, not taking over as a regular.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

IIRC his last wrist surgery was quite severe in order to save his baseball career. Maybe all of those procedures sapped his power and swing speed? 

I think all that plus the shoulder problem last season drained his strength & stamina. Because of that Kiriloff should have been limited to 1B/ DH for a good portion of the season & go on from there. But Santana screwed up all that. IMO Kiriloff has a sore arm that's not serious but affects his swing. It could be a minor mechanical problem, but I'd think he'd solve it by now. IDK what it is but management needs to know what it is & should have been dealt with a while ago. I'm sure Kiriloff is doing everything in his power to try to correct this problem.

[stringer bell]

Alex Kirilloff is listed on the Saints roster this evening. I don't see that someone has been recalled, but apparently the Twins are using AK's last option now. It is fair, but I don't know if it is the right move. 

[Jocko87]

17 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Alex Kirilloff is listed on the Saints roster this evening. I don't see that someone has been recalled, but apparently the Twins are using AK's last option now. It is fair, but I don't know if it is the right move. 

Their transaction log lists him as optioned today as well.  No corresponding move yet.  I would assume it has to be Wallner which will make for some interesting lineups (and game threading).

Was going to pop in and ask if anyone has a good corelation between the dead ball this year and who it effects the most.  To me, I think that might be part of the problem.  Yes, he's lost now, but he wasn't early in the year.  His specialty is the fly ball the other way that carries a surprising amount.  It might play into the try to pull the ball adjustments and then he's lost in the mix.  

[darwin22]

On 6/11/2024 at 8:54 AM, DJL44 said:

I think he's Randy Bush 2.0.

Randy Bush was a MUCH better player than Kirilloff has ever demonstrated.  Just my opinion.

[SwainZag]

8 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Randy Bush was a MUCH better player than Kirilloff has ever demonstrated.  Just my opinion.

Ages 23-26 in the majors

Bush: .238/.311/.416 OPS+ 96

AK: .248/.309/.412  OPS+ 101

Bush had his better years at the plate later in his career, but age wise at the plate they aren't too far apart.

[bean5302]

On 6/11/2024 at 4:22 PM, chpettit19 said:

Except it didn't require "offseason surgery" it required in-season surgery. You're the one manipulating context. Alex Kirilloff played his last game in 2022 on August 1st and had surgery on August 16th. He played up until they decided they needed to literally shave his wrist bone down to fix the pain. It wasn't an acute injury that required surgery, it was a chronic injury that required surgery. Surgery that he had more or less immediately while in the middle of the season.

Offseason, midseason, beginning of season. It doesn't matter. Same exact argument. When Kirilloff wasn't able to swing the bat effectively, he got put on the IL, he didn't get pushed to struggle through injury like top players because Kirilloff provided no on the field value. 

Kirilloff has been essentially the same hitter every season with supposed different injuries (barring his unsustainable BABIP 2023). It's not a coincidence. Just like it's not a coincidence every time he puts on a Saints uniform he's not hurt anymore and he hits well, only to be "hurt" by putting on a Twins' uniform. Let's be realistic here. Kirilloff's biggest injury has been MLB pitching.

Kirilloff is now in the minors because he earned another demotion after his bat still didn't play after 900 plate appearances in MLB. He's arb2 and out of options next year. Guess who gets non-tendered in November, just like his older version clone, Nomar Mazara did?

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Offseason, midseason, beginning of season. It doesn't matter. Same exact argument. When Kirilloff wasn't able to swing the bat effectively, he got put on the IL, he didn't get pushed to struggle through injury like top players because Kirilloff provided no on the field value. 

Kirilloff has been essentially the same hitter every season with supposed different injuries (barring his unsustainable BABIP 2023). It's not a coincidence. Just like it's not a coincidence every time he puts on a Saints uniform he's not hurt anymore and he hits well, only to be "hurt" by putting on a Twins' uniform. Let's be realistic here. Kirilloff's biggest injury has been MLB pitching.

Kirilloff is now in the minors because he earned another demotion after his bat still didn't play after 900 plate appearances in MLB. He's arb2 and out of options next year. Guess who gets non-tendered in November, just like his older version clone, Nomar Mazara did?

The season is just over 40% over. By the end of 2024 Kirilloff might have made himself an important part of the Twins' future or he might have played his way to a non-tender. 

So far, the pedigree and the projection have far exceeded the performance. There is still a spot wide open for him to seize in 2025, but if he doesn't perform and soon, he'll probably be in another organization.