Willi Castro’s Hard-Hitting Spring Proving Not to Be a Fluke

[Cody Christie]

Willi Castro was essential to the Twins' success during the 2023 season. It was easy to peg him as a potential regression candidate this season, but his peripheral numbers might point to long-term offensive improvements.

Image courtesy of David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins’ offense stumbled out of the gate, with many vital contributors struggling to find consistency in the cold April weather. Typically, this is a trend with many teams' offensive performances in the season’s early weeks, but Minnesota’s offensive ineptitude put the team in a hole to start the year. Willi Castro was part of the problem, going 5-for-45 with two extra-base hits and a 51.1 K% in his first 16 games. His numbers were tough to swallow, especially after spring training, wherein he was hitting the ball better than he ever had in his career. 

During spring training, Castro showed positive signs of an improved offensive approach. He hit the snot out of the ball, with three of the 25 hardest-hit balls of his entire career in any Statcast-covered setting. Many spring training statistics can be taken with a grain of salt, but hitters can show signs of making better contact or having better pitch recognition. Castro laid the groundwork for being one of the team’s best hitters in 2024. 

Castro has been a catalyst for the Twins’ offensive improvements over the last three weeks. The team’s offense was among baseball’s best during their 12-game winning streak, and Castro was among the team leaders. In 17 games, he hit nearly anything close to the plate, with a 1.029 OPS and his K% dropping to 19.4%. His nine doubles during that stretch are tied for sixth among AL hitters, with Ryan Jeffers (10) being the lone Twins hitter with more two-baggers. It has been a tremendous stretch at the plate, and these numbers only tell part of his offensive resurgence.

During the 2024 season, Castro’s 45.0 Sweet Spot% ranks among baseball’s best (97th percentile). One of his most significant improvements has been against breaking pitches. His slugging percentage against breaking pitches has increased from .379 last season to .500 in 2024. He also continues to destroy fastballs, with a .446 SLG and a .339 xWOBA. His 35.0% line drive rate is nearly 10 percentage points higher than his career average, and the MLB average is 24.8%.

Castro’s development at the big-league level has been unique, because the Tigers were forced to call him up at age 22, before he had time to prove himself in the upper minors. He showed positive signs during the 2020 season, with a 153 OPS+ in 36 games. It earned him a full-time role in 2021-22, but he struggled to find offensive consistency, with a 79 OPS+. Detroit decided to move on from Castro, and the Tigers' loss is the Twins' gain. 

“At that age, there’s still upside,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told Twins Daily this spring. “So, if he’s getting stronger still and doing things like that, that wouldn’t be surprising for a guy that's only 26 years old."

Castro, now 27 years old, is earning $3.3 million through arbitration this year, and he is under control through the 2025 season. He will likely earn north of $5 million next season, which should be easy for the Twins to offer if he continues to perform at his current level. Minnesota needs more offensive consistency, and players like Castro are critical to the team’s success this season. 

Are Castro’s offensive improvements this season for real? What is his long-term role with the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Karbo]

I wondered if last season was a "career year" for Willi but it looks like he has turned a corner. He plays all over the field, switch hits, and seems quite popular. A good get for the Twins.

[4twinsJA]

Castro near perfect fit for super utility role Twins like to use, has played everywhere but 1B and C. And, he adds base stealing threat, switch hitter so don't have to sub out when facing same sided pitcher.

[saviking]

Twins found a gem. Got to hand it to them. Whole package. Versatility, fast, steals bases, hits for average and a good teammate. I wonder if he can pitch 

[Doctor Gast]

Great article, Cody. Super-utility is a very valuable asset for any team. Many use the term, super-utility very loosely but Castro is a legit one, But what really sets Castro apart is his hitting. I've been a big fan of Castro since spring training '23. Twins pay no attention to spring training performances, if it weren't for early injuries, Castro would been stuck at AAA & later option out of the Twins. But fortunate for those injuries, the Twins were forced to keep him on. Castro is for real & should have significant playing time in the utility role.

[Patzky]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Great article, Cody. Super-utility is a very valuable asset for any team. Many use the term, super-utility very loosely but Castro is a legit one, But what really sets Castro apart is his hitting. I've been a big fan of Castro since spring training '23. Twins pay no attention to spring training performances, if it weren't for early injuries, Castro would been stuck at AAA & later option out of the Twins. But fortunate for those injuries, the Twins were forced to keep him on. Castro is for real & should have significant playing time in the utility role.

We're even finding out that Castro as a full time starter and not just a utility plug is a desirable thing.

MAT had catalyst spurts like that last year.

[DJL44]

Offer him a short contract extension now.

[Riverbrian]

Castro has done a nice job for us. I'm glad he's on the roster. I certainly don't want to diminish his accomplishments this season. I'm happy he is on the roster. 

However, Lets look at his numbers in regards to how Rocco runs his roster which we should all know by now is heavily influenced by the left/right split.   

Thus Far in 2024 (Small Sample Size Alert): 

VS RH Pitchers: 93 AB's - .204 AVG .612 OPS

VS LH Pitchers: 25 AB's - .408 AVG . 1,279 OPS

78% of his AB's have been against Right Handed Pitchers.

Career (Large Sample Size Alert): 

VS RH Pitchers: 1053 AB's - .238 AVG .688 OPS

VS LH Pitchers: 430 AB's - .277 AVG .724 OPS

71% of his career AB's have been against Right Handed Pitchers. 

He is below league average against Right Handers but is deployed every day against them due to necessity caused by injury. 

Again... He's done a nice job for us in his every day role with the club but he has been below league average against Right Handers thus far this year and throughout his career.

This is the price you pay when you commit roster spots to short side platoon specialists. Injuries are always going to change everything. We spent 3 roster spots on the short side to the tune of 13.35 Million Dollars in 2024.

Injuries happen and they become the guys who have to face right handers and they struggle at doing that. Our injuries thus far this year have been to Right Handed hitters... when left handed hitters get hurt and they will... the situation becomes worse.  

Again... I don't have a problem with Castro on the roster. I'm a fan but the reality needs to be pointed out.   

[LambchoP]

I think he's about everything you can ask for in a super utility guy. Fun as heck to watch too. I really hope he can stay healthy and keep hitting. It's also nice to have a guy on this team that can actually steal some bases too. Other than Castro I don't think anyone will have more than ten SB. Definitely not Mr Glass Byron Buxton lol...

[DJL44]

34 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

He has been below league average against Right Handers thus far this year and throughout his career.

Which is probably fine because his glove is enough to make up for it. He's a very good utility player.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Which is probably fine because his glove is enough to make up for it. He's a very good utility player.

And I'll ad that his speed is plus on a team that overall isn't plus speed.  

With the rule changes... speed has becomes a bigger factor than recent years past. 

And I'll also ad that he is young and therefore has the potential to get better against Right Handed Pitchers as opposed to Santana, Margot and Farmer. 

I like Castro... He's a good baseball player. He's welcome on the team but the reality of his splits needs to be pointed out when you have a manager/front office that utilizes splits to it's fullest capacity.

Teams face right handers at a 3 out of 4 ratio.  

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Teams face right handers at a 3 out of 4 ratio.  

And half the players will hit below league average against them. Castro is definitely playable vs RHP.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

And half the players will hit below league average against them. Castro is definitely playable vs RHP.

Like I said... I'm good with Castro. Castro can play premium defensive positions like SS and CF and that alone justifies his roster spot... His defense isn't lost on me along with he is fast and he is youngish and therefore a decent candidate for improvement. 

With the understanding... while I'm good with Castro.

Below average is replaceable.

Below average is not where you stop and say... we got our guy... once they get that inevitable full time playing time due to inevitable injury... those positive splits that give them a roster spot are no longer a positive. 

I don't want to think this way. Rocco and the front office leave me no choice but to think this way. It's how they operate. 

 

[RpR]

53 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

With the understanding... while I'm good with Castro.

Below average is replaceable.

 

 

Replace with what, poor performing rookies or poor performing veterans?

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Replace with what, poor performing rookies or poor performing veterans?

 

[The Mad King]

I was among the nay sayers all off season. But every day he gives me an atoadaso ("I told you so" for those who don't speak TPB). I'm now convinced his bat is real. Still not sold on his defense except for his versatility. But he's looking like a legit super utility guy.

[Major League Ready]

On 5/8/2024 at 9:20 AM, Riverbrian said:

Castro has done a nice job for us. I'm glad he's on the roster. I certainly don't want to diminish his accomplishments this season. I'm happy he is on the roster. 

However, Lets look at his numbers in regards to how Rocco runs his roster which we should all know by now is heavily influenced by the left/right split.   

Thus Far in 2024 (Small Sample Size Alert): 

VS RH Pitchers: 93 AB's - .204 AVG .612 OPS

VS LH Pitchers: 25 AB's - .408 AVG . 1,279 OPS

78% of his AB's have been against Right Handed Pitchers.

Career (Large Sample Size Alert): 

VS RH Pitchers: 1053 AB's - .238 AVG .688 OPS

VS LH Pitchers: 430 AB's - .277 AVG .724 OPS

71% of his career AB's have been against Right Handed Pitchers. 

He is below league average against Right Handers but is deployed every day against them due to necessity caused by injury. 

Again... He's done a nice job for us in his every day role with the club but he has been below league average against Right Handers thus far this year and throughout his career.

This is the price you pay when you commit roster spots to short side platoon specialists. Injuries are always going to change everything. We spent 3 roster spots on the short side to the tune of 13.35 Million Dollars in 2024.

Injuries happen and they become the guys who have to face right handers and they struggle at doing that. Our injuries thus far this year have been to Right Handed hitters... when left handed hitters get hurt and they will... the situation becomes worse.  

Again... I don't have a problem with Castro on the roster. I'm a fan but the reality needs to be pointed out.   

You are right.  he has been a little below average against RHP this year.  You are also right in that it's a SSS.  He has been above average against RHP since joining the Twins and has been above average overall with a 113 wRC+ with the Twins.  I think we would all agree his performance and career numbers were not great before joining the Twins.  I am more inclined to be concerned with what he has done with the Twins.  Shouldn't we also consider that offense in the context of a guy that can fill-in quite well as SS and CF and run the bases very well?  Since last year he has 3.9 WAR which is 3rd on the team.  Only Kepler who most people wanted to get rid of, and Julien who gets his share of hate have posted more WAR since the beginning of last season.