Over/Under: The Twins Best Bets in 2024

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are set to kick off the 2024 Major League Baseball season as favorites to win the American League Central Division. A repeat would be nice to see, but how do some of the betting lines see them getting there?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

All professional sports have now fully embraced the sportsbook culture, and placing lines on almost everything is a given at this point. Online oddsmaker Bovada routinely provides lines for individual players as well as team accolades. Looking at some of the totals handed to the Twins and their roster, evaluating what performances could be coming presents a fun exercise.

Here are a few of the more notable numbers available:

Joe Ryan Over/Under - 3.85 ERA, 175.5 K, 10.5 W
Last season Ryan posted a 4.51 ERA for Minnesota and ZiPS is projecting him to come in with a 4.01 ERA this season. His 4.13 FIP was better than the ultimate number in 2023, and ZiPS has him tabbed for a 3.89 FIP this time around. For Ryan to take a significant step forward, as the Twins are hoping he will, the ball has to stay in the yard. His 1.8 HR/9 was a career-low, but if he can turn some of the big flies into outs, then there’s a chance that Minnesota’s number two starter becomes much more of a force.

Ryan finished with 197 strikeouts and 11 wins last year despite going through a couple of tough stretches. Betting on pitcher wins is always a risky gamble, and could be more so this season if the Twins rely on what should be a great bullpen. I think the safest option here is the over on strikeouts.

Pablo Lopez Over/Under - 3.35 ERA, 203.5 K, 11.5 W
Minnesota enters the season with their ace as a top candidate to win the American League Cy Young award. If that’s going to happen, Lopez will capitalize on the entirety of this trio. His 3.66 ERA last year came with a 3.33 FIP, though ZiPS has him projected for a 3.68 mark in 2024. That number won’t get him into the top five for the end of the season award, and I think expectations are fair that he will be there.

Lopez struck out 234 batters during his first season with Minnesota. Generating that number was reflective of a career-high K/9, as well as durability that had him coming up just shy of 200 innings. He should again clear the 200 strikeout bar easily, and winning 12-15 games seems logical as well. The Twins didn’t do Lopez many favors in starts last year, and I actually like the over on his win total the most.

Byron Buxton Over/Under - 24.5 HR, 62.5 RBI
Projections and expectations for Buxton will always be tied to availability. He’s going to be back in centerfield this year, and that’s something we haven’t seen in a long time. If he can keep his knee healthy while doing so, then the Twins will have an MVP candidate patrolling the outfield. Buxton has long been more power than contact, and got too much Miguel Sano to his game last year as the designated hitter.

Working in the field should allow him to keep his mind fresh, and if he plays anything close to 120 games then he’ll blitz by his home run total. Playing through pain last year he put up 17 longballs in 85 games, and he had 28 homers in only 92 games during 2022. I wouldn’t touch the RBI total because that’s reflective of opportunity, but give me the over on homers. Buy in on Buxton’s health this season.

Max Kepler Over/Under - 20.5 HR
Last season Kepler finally quit trying to pound the ball into the ground and went back to elevating pitches. That resulted in a 121 OPS+ and the best season he has had since 2019. Now in the final year of his Twins deal, he’s playing for his future as well. Look for him to adopt a similar approach and keep the success rolling.

With 24 home runs last year, Kepler cleared the over/under tally and did so despite having a ,625 OPS 46 games into his season. If he comes out of the gate with an approach that generated his success, he should be much closer to 30 than 20. I’ll take the over here.

Royce Lewis Over/Under - 27.5 HR, 80.5 RBI
Similar to Buxton, Lewis is a tale of health. If he’s available he’s going to produce. This spring is the first in years where he hasn’t been rehabbing something, and both of his knee injuries came as something of a fluke. His swing is dialed in, and he was a catalyst for the playoff success Minnesota saw last season.

I’d expected Rocco Baldelli to put Lewis somewhere in the heart of the order, and that will give him an opportunity to produce runs with the power bat. As he dials in plate discipline a bit more, the hope would be that he is more able to take walks and force pitchers to come to him. He is a long-shot candidate to lead the sport in home runs, and while I doubt that happens, leading the team should be well within reach. 28 is a big number, so it’s with some hesitation, but I’m taking the over there too.

Minnesota Win Totals - 7.5 G Streak, 85.5 W
A year ago Minnesota won the division while never having a winning streak more than five games. Two years ago they lost 84 games while owning a winning streak of seven games. Stacking wins is the goal, but it’s really about winning the series. Betting on a streak is a crapshoot at best, and having a team remain consistent is where things shake out positively at the end of the season.

It took just 87 wins to grab the division in 2023, and it might not take many more this time around. The Twins should still be the favorite, and are very likely to repeat. I have them pegged for about 90-wins, and that’s enough wiggle room to take the over. They should be better than sitting around .500 until the All-Star Break, and being able to create some distance out of the gate will be the goal.

---

What are your favorite bets or projections for Minnesota this season? What would you put as the Over/Under of how many of the above you'll predict correctly?

View full article

[Fatbat]

Geez. 85.5 wins. I would take the over on everyone of those betting lines. The bullpen is gonna get the top 3-4 starters at least 12 wins each. Long gone are the blown saves and the guys that Baldelli kept trotting out to fix them.  We can finally rotate the hot hand in just based on the volume of options available in the organization. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Their run differential last year pointed to more of a 94 win team, and that was without a healthy Lewis, Buxton and Correa. That over for win total is an easy one for me. All of the others seem more fair on their own

[D.C Twins]

Some tough decisions there (ie well placed lines)

I'd be most confident in:

1. OVER on Twins wins!

2. OVER on Lewis RBIs

3. OVER on Lopez wins

Ryan, Buxton, and Kepler have way to wide of a confidence interval for my betting tastes.....

[JD-TWINS]

Ryan has won 13 & 11 the past 2 years with difficulties in both years. To me, with the uptick, even mild, in run production & the long depth in the Pen, he’s back to 13 Wins at a minimum.

Lopez had to pitch in cold for first time early last year - had a new pitch to master in the Sweeper - 2 new catchers as well……….he’s going to strike out near 200 but will definitely beat his win total from last year, 11. I really expect he’s got a great chance to win 50% or more of his starts……conservatively, 15 Wins!

91 Team wins, minimum.

Don't want to jinx Lewis, nor Kepler.

Buxton plays 120 games as CF & DH while hitting a minimum of 22 HR & accruing at least 75 RBI along with his 25 doubles!!

[mnfireman]

All professional sports have now fully embraced the sportsbook culture, and placing lines on almost everything is a given at this point.

I know this statement has nothing to do with the 2024 Twins, but with this being the new normal, when does Pete Rose get in the HOF??? Otherwise major league sports should not embrace sportsbooks. It's a bad look and, as the NFL is seemingly dealing with, leads to speculation about game outcomes.

[DocBauer]

I'm not a betting person, but I can easily see a few opportunities to bet the overs here and there. 

But I fully believed the 2023 Twins were a 88-92 win team. And the 2nd half version was on pace for that.

And I understand the not replacing Gray issue. But I really like the offense and pen and still believe the rotation is pretty solid and might have some decent depth. I'd bet over the 85 wins as I think this team can also be a 88-92 win team.

And I'm not going to say "health permitting" because that applies to EVERYONE. 

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

All professional sports have now fully embraced the sportsbook culture, and placing lines on almost everything is a given at this point.

I know this statement has nothing to do with the 2024 Twins, but with this being the new normal, when does Pete Rose get in the HOF??? Otherwise major league sports should not embrace sportsbooks. It's a bad look and, as the NFL is seemingly dealing with, leads to speculation about game outcomes.

Regardless of embracing betting, Rose should be in. Nothing is more obnoxious than pretending stats didn’t happen. Bonds, Clemens, etc, all of them. Those things all happened. It’s part of the story.

[arby58]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Ryan has won 13 & 11 the past 2 years with difficulties in both years. To me, with the uptick, even mild, in run production & the long depth in the Pen, he’s back to 13 Wins at a minimum.

Lopez had to pitch in cold for first time early last year - had a new pitch to master in the Sweeper - 2 new catchers as well……….he’s going to strike out near 200 but will definitely beat his win total from last year, 11. I really expect he’s got a great chance to win 50% or more of his starts……conservatively, 15 Wins!

91 Team wins, minimum.

Don't want to jinx Lewis, nor Kepler.

Buxton plays 120 games as CF & DH while hitting a minimum of 22 HR & accruing at least 75 RBI along with his 25 doubles!!

I like a lot of these - although I'm thinking more like 88-90 wins. The one I'd take you on is still Buxton (and I'm a big fan of his).  Only 1 season with more than 92 games played makes it tough to expect 120. The big one though - he's never had more than 51 RBI - expecting a 50 percent increase is brave. So sign me up for the under on that bet in its entirety. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I like a lot of these - although I'm thinking more like 88-90 wins. The one I'd take you on is still Buxton (and I'm a big fan of his).  Only 1 season with more than 92 games played makes it tough to expect 120. The big one though - he's never had more than 51 RBI - expecting a 50 percent increase is brave. So sign me up for the under on that bet in its entirety. 

No doubt that’s the SMART BET! I’ve stated for months that the expectation for Buxton should be 30-40 games in CF and hoping for 110-120 games total. Every other entry about Buxton from me states he’s only played over 100 games ONCE! (emphasized when some here want 140 games & 30 steals in ‘24……wow!)

That said, been drinking the “I feel great” Kool Aid from Byron. Hoping for up to 50 starts in CF…..70 games at DH. 120 starts……he still rests or misses 25% of the season in that scenario.

Thinking the RBI will come from more AB’s and him hitting a little deeper in the line-up as well as being protected better with an overall better line-up……….more similar to 2019’s.

Fingers crossed!!!

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I like a lot of these - although I'm thinking more like 88-90 wins. The one I'd take you on is still Buxton (and I'm a big fan of his).  Only 1 season with more than 92 games played makes it tough to expect 120. The big one though - he's never had more than 51 RBI - expecting a 50 percent increase is brave. So sign me up for the under on that bet in its entirety. 

…….also, btw…..I said 75 RBI but the bet is for 62.5 for Buxton. If he plays a healthy 110 games he gets 63 RBI - right?

[Parfigliano]

Over on team wins and Lewis RBI.

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, mnfireman said:

All professional sports have now fully embraced the sportsbook culture, and placing lines on almost everything is a given at this point.

I know this statement has nothing to do with the 2024 Twins, but with this being the new normal, when does Pete Rose get in the HOF??? Otherwise major league sports should not embrace sportsbooks. It's a bad look and, as the NFL is seemingly dealing with, leads to speculation about game outcomes.

Totally agree, Keeping Rose out of the HOF at this point in time is just sheer .... ugh, a lot of words apply, but the point is; lift this ridiculous ban and let the guy in the hall before he leaves this planet. He was a helluva player. Okay, I'm drifting from the topic of this article too, so all I will add it that I expect the Twins to exceed those win projections, and as for players, Lewis, will blow away the projections!

[John Belinski]

I think over in wins if Rocco learns to handle pitchers better.  It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Rocco would have been manager when Jack Morris was pitching game in World Series and was going to refuse to come out of game, but Rocco would probably have pulled him in the 6th inning.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Totally agree, Keeping Rose out of the HOF at this point in time is just sheer .... ugh, a lot of words apply, but the point is; lift this ridiculous ban and let the guy in the hall before he leaves this planet. He was a helluva player. Okay, I'm drifting from the topic of this article too, so all I will add it that I expect the Twins to exceed those win projections, and as for players, Lewis, will blow away the projections!

Rose bet on MLB, and an investigation found he bet on at least 50 Reds games in 1987, at a minimum of $10,000 per day, according to Bleacher Report. I know keeping jerks out of the HOF would be an impossible task, but when you so blatantly flout the rules of the game, there are consequences. Fine with me if it also keeps Beltran out of the HOF.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, John Belinski said:

I think over in wins if Rocco learns to handle pitchers better.  It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Rocco would have been manager when Jack Morris was pitching game in World Series and was going to refuse to come out of game, but Rocco would probably have pulled him in the 6th inning.

Once again, the Twins were in the top 3-5 in all of MLB for IP from their starters. And Rocco was still the manager last season. When he has good arms in the rotation, he lets them pitch until it is the right time to remove them. He does not have a quick hook. You can't have a quick hook and have your rotation at the top of the ML leader board in IP.

When he has guys like Shoemaker and Archer in his rotation that are only good for 3-4 innings, 5 if you're lucky enough for them to have a good day, then Rocco has a quicker hook. Wouldn't any manager?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I will be the whipping boy...

I will take the under on Twins wins.

Assuming no moves of consequence are made, the SP will be demonstrably worse than last year.  I am not buying the youth movement, 40% of the rotation is a complete unknown.
Everyone is banking on bounce back years from their big names.  Correa and Buxton specifically (you can include Vasquez here as well).  History does not favor Buxton.
Expecting Jeffers and Kepler (2nd half) to repeat what they did last year is a huge ask.
Lewis, Wallner, and Julien give reason for optimism, but they all lack a body of work to feel real strongly they will maintain or improve.  Jose Miranda anyone?
As I have said many times, if the Twins brass felt ANY of the AAA players were ready, they would not be trading for back-end SP or backup OF.

The only real known is the disaster that is the AL Central.  This team smells of a .500 team that would be demonstrably worse in either other division.

All of that being said, nothing would make me happier than to be wrong about this and see Twins win 93 games...

[Joe A. Preusser]

Joe Ryan - UNDER

Pablo Lopez - OVER

Byron Buxton - OVER

Max Kepler - OVER

Joyce Lewis - OVER

Twins Wins - EASY OVER

[sampleSizeOfOne]

On 3/4/2024 at 8:25 AM, arby58 said:

Rose bet on MLB, and an investigation found he bet on at least 50 Reds games in 1987, at a minimum of $10,000 per day, according to Bleacher Report. I know keeping jerks out of the HOF would be an impossible task, but when you so blatantly flout the rules of the game, there are consequences. Fine with me if it also keeps Beltran out of the HOF.

Part of me wants to ask if he always bet on the Reds in those 50 games.

 

'Cause if he did, at least it isn't a conflict of interest (or at least you have to look harder... did he sacrifice other games to win those 50...) 

 

I feel i could gain some wisdom from the opening scene of Miller's Crossing. Question of Character...

[sampleSizeOfOne]

And i'm confused what under means for a pitcher means when era, wins and k's are listed.

He'll win fewer, strike out less, and have a lower era?

Welcome to the world of 2023 Sonny Grey, eh?