Over/Under: The Twins Best Bets in 2024

All professional sports have now fully embraced the sportsbook culture, and placing lines on almost everything is a given at this point. Online oddsmaker Bovada routinely provides lines for individual players as well as team accolades. Looking at some of the totals handed to the Twins and their roster, evaluating what performances could be coming presents a fun exercise.

Here are a few of the more notable numbers available:

Joe Ryan Over/Under - 3.85 ERA, 175.5 K, 10.5 W
Last season Ryan posted a 4.51 ERA for Minnesota and ZiPS is projecting him to come in with a 4.01 ERA this season. His 4.13 FIP was better than the ultimate number in 2023, and ZiPS has him tabbed for a 3.89 FIP this time around. For Ryan to take a significant step forward, as the Twins are hoping he will, the ball has to stay in the yard. His 1.8 HR/9 was a career-low, but if he can turn some of the big flies into outs, then there’s a chance that Minnesota’s number two starter becomes much more of a force.

Ryan finished with 197 strikeouts and 11 wins last year despite going through a couple of tough stretches. Betting on pitcher wins is always a risky gamble, and could be more so this season if the Twins rely on what should be a great bullpen. I think the safest option here is the over on strikeouts.

Pablo Lopez Over/Under - 3.35 ERA, 203.5 K, 11.5 W
Minnesota enters the season with their ace as a top candidate to win the American League Cy Young award. If that’s going to happen, Lopez will capitalize on the entirety of this trio. His 3.66 ERA last year came with a 3.33 FIP, though ZiPS has him projected for a 3.68 mark in 2024. That number won’t get him into the top five for the end of the season award, and I think expectations are fair that he will be there.

Lopez struck out 234 batters during his first season with Minnesota. Generating that number was reflective of a career-high K/9, as well as durability that had him coming up just shy of 200 innings. He should again clear the 200 strikeout bar easily, and winning 12-15 games seems logical as well. The Twins didn’t do Lopez many favors in starts last year, and I actually like the over on his win total the most.

Byron Buxton Over/Under - 24.5 HR, 62.5 RBI
Projections and expectations for Buxton will always be tied to availability. He’s going to be back in centerfield this year, and that’s something we haven’t seen in a long time. If he can keep his knee healthy while doing so, then the Twins will have an MVP candidate patrolling the outfield. Buxton has long been more power than contact, and got too much Miguel Sano to his game last year as the designated hitter.

Working in the field should allow him to keep his mind fresh, and if he plays anything close to 120 games then he’ll blitz by his home run total. Playing through pain last year he put up 17 longballs in 85 games, and he had 28 homers in only 92 games during 2022. I wouldn’t touch the RBI total because that’s reflective of opportunity, but give me the over on homers. Buy in on Buxton’s health this season.

Max Kepler Over/Under - 20.5 HR
Last season Kepler finally quit trying to pound the ball into the ground and went back to elevating pitches. That resulted in a 121 OPS+ and the best season he has had since 2019. Now in the final year of his Twins deal, he’s playing for his future as well. Look for him to adopt a similar approach and keep the success rolling.

With 24 home runs last year, Kepler cleared the over/under tally and did so despite having a ,625 OPS 46 games into his season. If he comes out of the gate with an approach that generated his success, he should be much closer to 30 than 20. I’ll take the over here.

Royce Lewis Over/Under - 27.5 HR, 80.5 RBI
Similar to Buxton, Lewis is a tale of health. If he’s available he’s going to produce. This spring is the first in years where he hasn’t been rehabbing something, and both of his knee injuries came as something of a fluke. His swing is dialed in, and he was a catalyst for the playoff success Minnesota saw last season.

I’d expected Rocco Baldelli to put Lewis somewhere in the heart of the order, and that will give him an opportunity to produce runs with the power bat. As he dials in plate discipline a bit more, the hope would be that he is more able to take walks and force pitchers to come to him. He is a long-shot candidate to lead the sport in home runs, and while I doubt that happens, leading the team should be well within reach. 28 is a big number, so it’s with some hesitation, but I’m taking the over there too.

Minnesota Win Totals - 7.5 G Streak, 85.5 W
A year ago Minnesota won the division while never having a winning streak more than five games. Two years ago they lost 84 games while owning a winning streak of seven games. Stacking wins is the goal, but it’s really about winning the series. Betting on a streak is a crapshoot at best, and having a team remain consistent is where things shake out positively at the end of the season.

It took just 87 wins to grab the division in 2023, and it might not take many more this time around. The Twins should still be the favorite, and are very likely to repeat. I have them pegged for about 90-wins, and that’s enough wiggle room to take the over. They should be better than sitting around .500 until the All-Star Break, and being able to create some distance out of the gate will be the goal.

What are your favorite bets or projections for Minnesota this season? What would you put as the Over/Under of how many of the above you'll predict correctly?