Anthony DeSclafani Will Sink(er) Swim

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins have a lot of innings to replace in 2024, and apparently, Anthony DeSclafani is part of their plan to do so. He's looking to regain his former reputation as a solid big-league starter after two injury-plagued seasons, and one important aspect of that is a careful mix of his two fastballs.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Imagine that—a Twins Daily writer is not only talking about four-seamers and sinkers, but this hurler's sinker in particular. If you haven’t already, check out Matt and Lucas’s Caretaker content on the topic.

Anthony DeSclafani's career has been all over the place, with an ERA in the 3s every other year between 2015 (when he was 25) and 2022 (when he was 32)—with years in the 6s and 7s in between. He pitched well enough to earn a four-year, $48-million contract with San Francisco ahead of the 2021 season.

Early results were solid, as he had a 3.17 ERA and 3.89 FIP in 167 innings in 2021. However, in the two years following that performance, he had a 5.16 ERA and 4.43 FIP in just 118 innings. The apparent culprit could be injury, but it’s never that simple.

Part of the struggles may be an overreliance on his sinker. DeSclafani has always thrown both a sinker and a four-seamer, but he had thrown the fastball at least 50 percent more often than the sinker until 2022--at which point he began throwing the sinker twice as often as the fastball.

Those familiar with the Giants and their pitching philosophy may already know why. Brian Bannister, the San Francisco director of pitching (fancy title, wow), could be affectionately referred to as a sinker wackadoodle. If you were labeled a sinker guy, you were throwing it early and often. DeSclafani was labeled a sinker guy.

A redesign of his pitch mix may do him good, as Lucas Seehafer laid out in his Caretakers-exclusive article, relying more on his four-seamer at the expense of the sinker. His slider pairs better with it, and has been his most-thrown pitch over the last three years, and his most effective.

Another option would be to retain both pitches and deploy them based on location, throwing fastballs high and sinkers down, or sinkers predominantly to righties and four-seamers to lefties, as he has been doing in recent years.

Another less-discussed delineation that DeSclafani could make would be based on count. Blake Newberry of Viva el Birdos recently had a great breakdown of using the sinker as a pitch to get called strikes.

Most of the time, pitches are thrown in the same direction that they break. Sliders are thrown to the glove side (as opposed to the arm side) because they are already breaking that way. So a right-handed pitcher will throw a slider that breaks away from righties or inside to lefties. It makes sense.

The sinker has armside break. A righty’s sinker will move toward a right-handed batter and away from a left-handed batter. Therefore, throwing the sinker to the pitcher’s arm side has been popular—inside to righties and outside to lefties. DeSclafani has been doing both in recent years.

Given Bannister’s pitching philosophy, he has been relying on the sinker in most fastball situations. He tends to throw in two spots—arm-side sinkers up (up and in to righties, up and outside to lefties) and glove-side sinkers down (low and outside to righties, low and inside to lefties).

Newberry’s research suggests that glove-side sinkers have actually been more effective than arm-side sinkers. Beyond that, having already relied on sinkers to both sides, DeSclafani could be able to use his sinker in a way that is gaining popularity—as a strikeout pitch.

It seems antithetical to say that. Sinkers are regaining popularity because they induce weak contact and grounders, not because they fool batters into swinging and missing. The thing is, that's not what makes a sinker a potential strikeout pitch—it's that they can fool batters into not swinging.

Think about it like this: If an armside sinker breaks to the arm side, the break may bring it outside of the strike zone, preferably in on righties (if a right-handed pitcher like DeSclafani is pitching). If the batter swings, they’ll probably at least foul it off, and if it’s breaking in, it may be a ball that they can lay off.

However, if the pitch is thrown well to the glove side, it will appear to be going out of the zone before snapping back in, hopefully catching the edge of the plate. Gloveside sinkers that catch the edge of the plate are only swung at about 40 percent of the time, giving the pitcher a shot at a free strike. More significantly, with two strikes, when the batter should be looking to make contact with anything in the zone, they still only swing at a gloveside sinker 60 to 65 percent of the time.

Utilizing a good gloveside sinker in a strikeout count, at least recently, leads to a called third strike about a third of the time. And then, if the batter does swing, they’re making contact with a painted sinker, which limits the potential damage.

Given DeSclafani’s existing ability to throw sinkers both glove- and armside, he could unlock another aspect of his game, relying more on the gloveside sinkers—pairing them with his great slider, which would also be thrown glove side, to make a hitter second-guess whether that pitch is going to break out of the zone or snap back into it. The front-door sinker is a strategy employed by Corey Kluber a decade ago in Cleveland, when Derek Falvey was in the organization, so it's not an outlandish idea.

The primary question for DeSclafani in 2024 is whether the Twins can get him back to being a reliable presence in the rotation, not whether he can start a playoff game. Introducing this sinker strategy, while reincorporating his four-seamer and continuing to rely on his slider, could pay dividends in that endeavor. There are many adjustments that the organization could make to try to revive DeSclafani's career (or at least squeeze the remaining juice out of it), and this could be one of them.

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[weneedneshek]

Really hoping he can regain his form. My main qualm with these bottom of the barrel acquisitions is we always give them far too much rope if they aren't performing.

If SWR or Varland are doing well in AAA and we end up getting the 2023 Desclafani, they better not hesitate.

[KBJ1]

I like the idea of a sinker coming back in on the glove side of the plate to both ledtys and rightys.

[tony&rodney]

DeSclafani along with Topa and Santana were Falvey's big moves this offseason to push the Twins deep into the playoffs, so hopefully AD and the others find their best selves.

[DJL44]

Good article

[Oldgoat_MN]

If the the Twins can help DeSclafani return to his 2021 self he is going to surprise and delight all of us.

Best case scenarios. Gotta love 'em.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Desclafani has some things to work on but he knows it.   Im hoping one of the pitches click.  I think you have a 4 ERA player with out a swing and miss pitch.  I think you have a #2 pitcher if he can find that strike out pitch.  

“I’m trying to dial in a swing-and-miss pitch,” DeSclafani said. “I think that’s something I’m in desperate need of.”

In that regard, he’s toying with two new offerings that he has workshopped this offseason: a new sweeper that won’t replace his cutter but aim to act as more of a swing-and-miss pitch, and a split changeup with more depth to replace his traditional changeup, which got a paltry 15% whiff rate last season.

It’s been a mixed bag so far, with the quality of those pitches worse in camp than they had been during his offseason development, DeSclafani said.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This is not a starting pitcher that should be in the rotation of a world series contending team.  Are we back to the days of Rich Hill?  

[Trov]

I have little faith in Desclafani as a guy we can count on in this rotation.  Specifically, outside of his contract year, he has never been much better than end of rotation guy. He did have okay year in 2019 as well.  I do not care how much of changing his pitch mix he does.  He has never been a great pitcher and he is at an age where really you just want to try and get innings out of him. My guess he breaks camp as the 5th guy, but hopefully with other health and performance he gets the DFA before too long.  Maybe he has a good year and we would take it, but I am not counting on it at all. 

[Bamboo Bat]

Why in the world would you complain about that pitching line? Rich Hill when he came back from a known injury threw some good baseball (albeit short starts) for the Twins in 2020. 

28 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is not a starting pitcher that should be in the rotation of a world series contending team.  Are we back to the days of Rich Hill?  

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

41 minutes ago, Bamboo Bat said:

Why in the world would you complain about that pitching line? Rich Hill when he came back from a known injury threw some good baseball (albeit short starts) for the Twins in 2020. 

 

You are right... Rich Hill is probably the one flier that worked.  How about this:

Dylan Bundy
Aaron Sanchez
JA Happ
Matt Shoemaker
Andrew Albers
Throw in Lance Lynn as well (though he sucked more because he didn't care or try). 

Teams that try to win do not throw innings at these types of guys.

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Desclafani has some things to work on but he knows it.   Im hoping one of the pitches click.  I think you have a 4 ERA player with out a swing and miss pitch.  I think you have a #2 pitcher if he can find that strike out pitch.  

“I’m trying to dial in a swing-and-miss pitch,” DeSclafani said. “I think that’s something I’m in desperate need of.”

In that regard, he’s toying with two new offerings that he has workshopped this offseason: a new sweeper that won’t replace his cutter but aim to act as more of a swing-and-miss pitch, and a split changeup with more depth to replace his traditional changeup, which got a paltry 15% whiff rate last season.

It’s been a mixed bag so far, with the quality of those pitches worse in camp than they had been during his offseason development, DeSclafani said.

Thats not the kind of optimism that I want in a SP.  the guy seems lost on what to throw on a 2 strike count. Yikes.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

14 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Thats not the kind of optimism that I want in a SP.  the guy seems lost on what to throw on a 2 strike count. Yikes.

 

He's not lost his stuff just isn't quite good enough or deceptive enough to be a strikeout machine.  He becomes a much more effective pitcher if he can limit the amount of balls put in play and remove some variability of babip.  He is a solid #3 or #4 pitcher if healthy with potential of #2 type results.   For $4 million its worth the risk.  

[wabene]

This past year was the first time I noticed a sinker used in this way. It was sometimes masterfully done by Sonny Gray. Loved watching batters stand there as the ball came back over the plate. There were times when Sonny was just painting it. Doesn't Ober also use a two seamer this way, albeit less often? 

[Linus]

17 hours ago, wabene said:

This past year was the first time I noticed a sinker used in this way. It was sometimes masterfully done by Sonny Gray. Loved watching batters stand there as the ball came back over the plate. There were times when Sonny was just painting it. Doesn't Ober also use a two seamer this way, albeit less often? 

Yes he does. Of course the master was Greg Maddux. He had so much run on the two seamer that it fooled everyone including the umpires.