X-Factors: Cleaning Up the Twins' Defense

[Cody Christie]

Strong defense has been a core component of the Twins franchise since the team moved to Minnesota. There were holes in last year’s defense, which must be resolved for the 2024 campaign.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

During the 2023 season, the Twins had three Gold Glove finalists, including two players, Pablo Lopez and Carlos Correa, who are still on the roster. Other players on the roster also rank well on the ball's defensive side, but some clear holes can be addressed with some strategic changes. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of how the Twins can clean up their defense. 

Catcher
Christian Vazquez was one of the American League’s best defensive catchers last season, ranking in the 79th percentile in Fielding Run Value. He also ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in Blocks Above Average and Framing. As he ages, the Twins must track his usage to see if he continues to be effective behind the plate. Ryan Jeffers saw a dip in his defensive numbers last season, so he has a chance to help the Twins clean up their defense. His Blocks Above Average, Caught Steal Above Average, and Framing ranked in the 25th percentile or lower. It was the first season he was below average in framing after previously being known for that skill earlier in his career.
Best Defensive Option: Vazquez

First Base
The Twins rotated through multiple options at first base last season, including Joey Gallo and Alex Kirilloff. Minnesota hoped Kirilloff would be an average defensive first baseman, but he posted a -6 Fielding Run Value in 2023. This winter, the Twins added Carlos Santana to the first base mix. Santana is coming off a season where he was a Gold Glove finalist at first base with an Outs Above Average ranking in the 77th percentile. Other players, including Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien, might also fit into the team’s first base plans. Neither of those players projects to be above average at first base, so Santana is the team’s lone hope to improve at the position in his age-37 season. 
Best Defensive Option: Santana

Second Base
Minnesota traded away Jorge Polanco, the team’s long-time second baseman, and Julien is expected to begin the year as the team’s regular starter at second. Polanco averaged a -8 OAA over the last two seasons, but Julien has also struggled at second. His numbers improved in the second half of the year after he put in more work with the big-league staff. He had a -2 OAA in the middle of August and ended the season with a 0 OAA. Brooks Lee, one of the team’s top prospects, should be big-league-ready by midseason and would be a strong option at second with his experience as a shortstop. 
Best Defensive Option: Lee

Third Base
Royce Lewis is the incumbent at the hot corner and was learning third base last season after playing shortstop for most of his professional career. By the season's end, he moved from a negative OAA in August to a positive OAA. With an entire offseason, Lewis will be even better at the hot corner in 2024. Miranda struggled at the start of last season (-6 OAA) which impacted the team’s overall performance at the position. The Twins no longer view Miranda as a regular third base option, which should help the defense improve. If Lewis misses time, Kyle Farmer and Lee are other third-base options.
Best Defensive Option: Lewis

Shortstop
Carlos Correa was a Gold Glove finalist last season, but he posted a negative total according to SABR’s Defensive Index. He has been considered a strong defensive player throughout his career, including winning a Platinum Glove during the 2021 season. He hopes to return to his previous form if he fully recovers from the plantar fasciitis injury that plagued him throughout the 2023 season. During the playoffs, Correa made multiple strong defensive plays, including throwing out a runner at home, picking off a runner at second base, and making a challenging play in the hole (see below). The Twins have multiple shortstop options behind Correa on the depth chart, including Lewis, Farmer, and Lee.  
Best Defensive Option: Correa

 

Left Field
Willi Castro finished fourth among AL left fielders in SDI last season and had a positive OAA at second base, third base, and shortstop. Matt Wallner is expected to be the team’s regular left fielder, which is a downgrade defensively, even though he has a powerful arm (100th percentile). Left field is the position most likely to see a decline in 2024. One intriguing option is to move a younger player with a solid defensive skill set to the position. Austin Martin is close to being big-league-ready and can play multiple defensive positions. If the Twins want left field to improve, turning the position over to Martin helps improve the defense, but he’d be a downgrade offensively compared to Wallner.  
Best Defensive Option: Martin

Center Field
At TwinsFest, Byron Buxton declared to fans, “I’m back,” when asked about a return to center field. The Twins are optimistic about Buxton being in the center field mix, but even the most optimistic outlook would have him starting around half the team’s game in center. Castro and Martin will shift to center if Buxton misses significant time. Last season, the Twins got tremendous defense from Michael A. Tayor, including an OAA that ranked in the 95th percentile. He is still on the free agent market, so resigning him could help the team improve their overall defense depth at all three outfield positions. 
Best Defensive Option: Buxton

Right Field
Kepler has been one of the AL’s strong defensive right fielders throughout his career. Last season, his OAA ranked in the 86th percentile even though he had some injuries in the first half. It was a down year for Kepler defensively, even though he ranked well in multiple areas. In baseball terms, he is starting to get older, but there is a strong possibility for his defensive numbers to return to his pre-2023 levels. Minnesota will likely also use other players in right field, including Wallner and Castro. 
Best Defensive Option: Kepler

What defensive area has the most room for improvement in 2024? Can the Twins clean up the club’s defense in other ways? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Karbo]

The Twins are rumored to be interested in Kiki Hernandez, who is a pretty good outfielder. Don't know if these rumors are true, but he would be a defensive upgrade in the OF.

[Parfigliano]

Did Vazquez steal a strike or is the umpire bad at his job?

[Doctor Gast]

Great job, Cody. In the past, the Twins were very defense-orientated. But under this FO, the defense hasn't been taken as seriously. But I give them credit that post-Cave at CF, post-Polanco at SS & lately addition of Vazquez has tremendously improved our position at the most premium positions. Without an FA off-season, now being in better shape, working on his hitting, being familiar with the team & pitchers. Vazquez should be much better offensively with his valuable defense, he should be still our primary catcher but I doubt that will happen.

I'm excited about what Martin can add to the team by being in the OF. 1B isn't a premium position.

[JD-TWINS]

NO, hopefully to Hernández, already detailed in another post specific to him. Negative offensively!!!

Wallner is in LF - I understand this is a defensive metrics post but Martin may not make the 26 man roster.

Castro, due to Buxton’s “best case” 50% in the grass ……is a close 2nd in CF.

Lee won’t be on the 26 man so IMO, Julien is the guy at 2B, since he’s a real option.

Santana is obviously the best choice for defense but realistically, Kirilloff is there 65-70% of the time 

[FlyingFinn]

Last year, the defense that I was most disappointed in was Kirilloff's. I had thought he was a good 1B defensively. Hope he's improved there.

If the Twins no longer consider Miranda a third baseman, he's about out of positions. That's new news to me.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lee won’t be on the 26 man so IMO, Julien is the guy at 2B, since he’s a real option.

Farmer is & he's a better 2Bman

[Eris]

“Strong fielding has been a core component of the Minnesota Twins franchise since the franchise formerly known as the Washington Senators arrived in the Twin Cities.”

Historically this may have been true.  Certainly when Tom Kelly was manager.  It has been quite awhile since the Twins Way was expected from players who rose through the system.  Seems that in recent years we are more interested in bombas than solid defense.  

 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Did Vazquez steal a strike or is the umpire bad at his job?

For the millionth time, an umpire cannot see the glove. It is fair to say that it is possible that an umpire may be affected by where the catcher holds the ball after it is caught. That is correctly called bad umpiring, plain and simple.

[tony&rodney]

It is interesting that Brooks Lee is noted as the second base guy. I'm just wondering who has seen Lee play second base. I have never seen him play there. Nearly every scout projects Lee as a third base player.

[stringer bell]

To me, defense is definitely important. That said, it is far more important in some positions than others. The up-the-middle guys are really important, the corner guys not so much. It would be great to have Brooks Robinson, Mark Grace, Alex Gordon and Roberto Clemente types to man the corners, but a couple lesser fielders at the corners isn’t a season killer. 

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Farmer is & he's a better 2Bman

Do you believe Farmer will start at second base this year? Or should? 

Is it possible that the coaches choose the starting lineup based on who are the best players in their system for each specific position or is there another criteria that I have never heard of yet?

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you believe Farmer will start at second base this year? Or should? 

Is it possible that the coaches choose the starting lineup based on who are the best players in their system for each specific position or is there another criteria that I have never heard of yet?

What Dr. Gast says makes sense; Farmer is a Good Second Baseman, Julien is a Not Good Second Baseman.

If Julien needs more practice then send him back to St.Paul, it is a long way from getting better to being good.

Last season players were pulled not for their bat but because a good defense man was needed, and Julien is not the latter.

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you believe Farmer will start at second base this year? Or should? 

Is it possible that the coaches choose the starting lineup based on who are the best players in their system for each specific position or is there another criteria that I have never heard of yet?

Farmer will platoon Julien.

[stringer bell]

17 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Last year, the defense that I was most disappointed in was Kirilloff's. I had thought he was a good 1B defensively. Hope he's improved there.

If the Twins no longer consider Miranda a third baseman, he's about out of positions. That's new news to me.

Miranda is third in the "projection line" at third base. Lewis is there now. If Lewis weren't there, the projected long-term regular would be Lee. It's not so much that Miranda isn't a third baseman any more as much as there are guys of his age that are ahead of him

Santana is going to the principal first baseman. There's a snippet in today's BBRef quoting Rocco as saying it won't be a true platoon between Kirilloff and Santana. Reading a bit between the lines, Santana will probably be at first if both are in the lineup and he will get a lot of starts against right handed pitching. This would mean a healthy Kirilloff will be the DH against right handers quite frequently. Santana will likely pinch hit for AK often against left handed relievers, but I doubt the reverse will happen much at all. So, if all are healthy, figure Santana for 100-120 starts at first base. 

[wabene]

Man I hope that's ∆∆∆ not correct Stringer. Here is hoping AK just smacks around rightys so bad that Carlos has a hard time getting in the lineup against them. 

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, wabene said:

Man I hope that's ∆∆∆ not correct Stringer. Here is hoping AK just smacks around rightys so bad that Carlos has a hard time getting in the lineup against them. 

I don't like it, but every indication is that Santana just won't be a right handed platoon bat. In many respects, the ball is in Kirilloff's court. If he continues to hit right handed pitching like he did last year, he'll get in there against them. If he can add hitting lefties acceptably, he won't be pinch hit for as often. If he fields better (IMHO he is certainly capable), he'll get more time at first base and won't be pulled for a defensive replacement. I'm a big fan, but I do think it's time for him to step up in areas where he was deficient last year. If we get the 2023 of Kirilloff, he's a platoon DH and won't get to 400 plate appearances.

[wabene]

9 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don't like it, but every indication is that Santana just won't be a right handed platoon bat. In many respects, the ball is in Kirilloff's court. If he continues to hit right handed pitching like he did last year, he'll get in there against them. If he can add hitting lefties acceptably, he won't be pinch hit for as often. If he fields better (IMHO he is certainly capable), he'll get more time at first base and won't be pulled for a defensive replacement. I'm a big fan, but I do think it's time for him to step up in areas where he was deficient last year. If we get the 2023 of Kirilloff, he's a platoon DH and won't get to 400 plate appearances.

I agree Kirilloff has the upside to take this and run with it. I'll be rooting for him. This is no knock on Santana. Donnie Barrels contributed last year and you could say the Twins got quite a bit out of him. Santana has more to offer and with proper handling the Twins may just get him a mini resurgence. That being said, Kirilloff is a prime prospect and him finally putting it together can be huge for the squad. 

[Linus]

My hope is that position the young infielders in a way that maximizes their defensive ceilings for the long run. If Lee is going to be the best third baseman then let’s get him there and get Royce to second or vice versa. 

[stringer bell]

On 2/19/2024 at 8:02 AM, Cody Christie said:

Strong defense has been a core component of the Twins franchise since the team moved to Minnesota. There were holes in last year’s defense, which must be resolved for the 2024 campaign.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

During the 2023 season, the Twins had three Gold Glove finalists, including two players, Pablo Lopez and Carlos Correa, who are still on the roster. Other players on the roster also rank well on the ball's defensive side, but some clear holes can be addressed with some strategic changes. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of how the Twins can clean up their defense.

First Base
The Twins rotated through multiple options at first base last season, including Joey Gallo and Alex Kirilloff. Minnesota hoped Kirilloff would be an average defensive first baseman, but he posted a -6 Fielding Run Value in 2023. This winter, the Twins added Carlos Santana to the first base mix. Santana is coming off a season where he was a Gold Glove finalist at first base with an Outs Above Average ranking in the 77th percentile. Other players, including Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien, might also fit into the team’s first base plans. Neither of those players projects to be above average at first base, so Santana is the team’s lone hope to improve at the position in his age-37 season. 
Best Defensive Option: Santana

What defensive area has the most room for improvement in 2024? Can the Twins clean up the club’s defense in other ways? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

I'd take issue with the quote on first base. While Kirilloff graded poorly last year, he is young and has all the skills necessary to be a better than average fielder. I would assume his numbers are much better this year. Perhaps Santana is the best hope for improvement, but a healthy Kirilloff with more reps could provide plenty of improvement. 

[Riverbrian]

I had absolutely no issues with the 2023 defense and I'm really not sure where clean up is required. 

Defense is run prevention. 

The Twins tied for the third in MLB in run prevention. 

4.07 Runs Allowed per game. The Brewers led the way with 3.99

I understand that fans would normally give pitchers the credit for good run prevention numbers but if the Twins finished tied for third in MLB... even if you give all the credit to the pitchers... how bad could the defense be if they finished third in runs allowed? 

Are we saying that we would have been first in run allowed if only the defense was cleaned up?  

 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/25/2024 at 4:16 PM, tony&rodney said:

It is interesting that Brooks Lee is noted as the second base guy. I'm just wondering who has seen Lee play second base. I have never seen him play there. Nearly every scout projects Lee as a third base player.

Bravo!! ……Completely agree.

IMO, Lee isn’t around much for a few months and if hitting in St Paul he’ll come over and spell CC & Lewis & DH some for the 2nd half.

Julien & Farmer have 2B covered. Lee may need to jump in with an injury to someone, that’s it in ‘24.

In ‘25, assuming Lee has proved himself, Lewis is in LF or 1B or both with 25 games at 3B to rest Lee……Lee is full time at 3B. Kirilloff at 1B & some LF as well.