The Twins Have a Rotation; They Still Need a Playoff Ace

[old nurse]

Without Seager and Garcia Texas might not have been in the WS. It is more than just pitching.  

Sonny Gray had a bad game against Houston. It takes more than 2 pitcher. When the Mets had the 4 aces, the did not win. It will always be a team game in the bigger picture.  

If Paddack, Ober and Ryan are not capable of being pitchers that rise up for the playoffs, the 5th pitcher does not matter. 

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

There is no question that the staff, as it is presently arrayed is enough to win the division (and maybe not enough that we lose the division) but it is one #1 or #2 SP short to seriously challenge in the playoffs. 

If Varland and Canterino, with the addition of Topa and Staumont as well as the firepower the Twins already have are all in our bullpen THAT is a pen that could be very effective in the regular AND post season.

But the question remains, who will be that #2?  Let's play make believe that Joe Ryan is more "1st half of the season Joe" than "2nd half of the season Joe" for the entire 2024 season.  In my opinion, the Twins STILL NEED one more top shelf arm to be able to go toe to toe with the Orioles (who now have Burnes), the Astros (who are still the Astros and now have Hader), the Rangers (who are the defending World Series Champions) and maybe the Yankees if all their pitchers not named Cole are finally healthy for an entire season (Rodan, Cortes, Stroman etc...).  

The easy answer with a $47 million dollar windfall from Balley is to sign Montgomery or Snell.  The fact that the Twins have never done such a thing and that they probably won't leads to the next question.  Do they wait until the trade deadline and try to deal for a good SP on a losing team (when everyone else who's contending will probably be in the same position)?  Or do they make a trade within the next couple of days to address this NOW.

I prefer the proactive approach.  Why wait when waiting means you will need to out bid ALL the other potential contenders and limit your benefit from this SP to 35% of the season?  I can hope they will make a fairly quick, proactive move.  But I'm not holding my breath.  

 

Montgomery would be a dream come true…….probably still need to move DeSclafani & Kepler to make it happen. That’s $14M to contribute to the payroll add with a FA. I’ve been a big proponent to keep Kepler through the year but to get Montgomery, some changes may need to be made.

Snell has more Cy Young’s than complete games. Not durable at all! He wants 10 years & $270M. He’s nuts!!

Clevinger, to me is an affordable & effective guy for 2 years.

Even signing Ryu along with DeSclafani & Varland & Festa could cover #4/#5 slots. Paddack as a big weapon out of the Pen OR flip him with Varland? Seems Varland could handle most innings & Paddack’s experience plays well out of the Pen. Protect his arm this way as well.

Canterino - Stewart - Varland/Paddack (1 of them) - Topa - Jax - Thielbar - Funderburk - Duran …………Alcala, Winder, etc. for depth.

Being “set” in Spring Training seems a better of the two options v. waiting til the deadline to get stabilized.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Canterino,  is your arm in the minors that could flash if healthy.  I would say the odds are slim.  He seemed to gel well with Paddack.   I think Varland is a better reliever than starting pitcher,  but right now we need him to fill in the depth role for the starters and compete with Desclafani.  

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Starting pitching is certainly one way to do it. Another is a dominant bullpen, which they are taking a stab at. The 15 Royals were game over with a lead in the 5th. With the extra days off in the playoffs the bullpen guys can go every game where the starter has to perform for several innings at once and you still need to pitch the other games.

Duran, Jax, Stewart, Theilbar, one of the new guys and playoff Varland can cover a lot of postseason innings. Ryan, Ober and Paddack do have the ability to get 4-5 postseason innings even if they aren't the 8 inning horses.

That is a pretty good take. Duran is the only sure dominant pitcher in the current bullpen though. Perhaps the Twins and Astros can find an exchange. Bryan Abreu is really good. Would Houston send him for Kepler?

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

That is a pretty good take. Duran is the only sure dominant pitcher in the current bullpen though. Perhaps the Twins and Astros can find an exchange. Bryan Abreu is really good. Would Houston send him for Kepler?

I doubt they trade Abreu. I also think you are shorting both Jax and Stewart, if you truly think no one else in the bullpen is dominant after Duran. Just my opinion.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

I doubt they trade Abreu. I also think you are shorting both Jax and Stewart, if you truly think no one else in the bullpen is dominant after Duran. Just my opinion.

You are probably right about Houston holding onto Abreu. I like both Jax and Stewart but they are not in the same class as Abreu. I was reacting to the idea of making the bullpen more dominant with a slim suggestion, that's all.

[Cory Engelhardt]

46 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You are probably right about Houston holding onto Abreu. I like both Jax and Stewart but they are not in the same class as Abreu. I was reacting to the idea of making the bullpen more dominant with a slim suggestion, that's all.

Yeah, Abreu is in a class of his own the last few years, I agree for sure. Sorry if I read that wrong :)

[Craig Arko]

I suppose if the playoffs started next week, I’d find this concerning. 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I suppose if the playoffs started next week, I’d find this concerning. 

Easier to deal with it now than mid season. With the expanded playoffs, teams have to be REALLY out of contention to trade top arms then. 

Plus, comparing Twins offseason pitching trades vs in-season pitching trades……yikes.

[Mike Sixel]

People really struggle with ... No guarantee vs increased likelihood. 

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

That is a pretty good take. Duran is the only sure dominant pitcher in the current bullpen though. Perhaps the Twins and Astros can find an exchange. Bryan Abreu is really good. Would Houston send him for Kepler?

It appears they are taking this path, at least for now. Relievers being so volatile, they have about 6-7 options behind Duran to be 3-4 studs. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It appears they are taking this path, at least for now. Relievers being so volatile, they have about 6-7 options behind Duran to be 3-4 studs. 

Path? I'm not privy to whatever is going on in Falvey's mind and do not understand his actions. No matter though.

Abreu is likely worth Kepler plus Jax. Duran & Abreu would be something to lock down the back end of games. The piles of relievers the Twins are accumulating have all had decent stretches and a good year here and there. I'm not sure how comfortable the front office is with the bullpen if they are adding guys on MLB contracts still. maybe Falvey wants a full squad in St. Paul. It looks like Sands, Winder, Balazovic, and others may be in a hole come April. Who knows what is going on. Still a ton of guys out there to sign I guess.

[Cris E]

Some thoughts:

There's a substantial chance that DeSclafani is not ready on April 1 and he stays on the DL or in St Paul to open the year, and at that point he'd need to pitch his way onto the 26 man. Great if he can, but better if he can't because it means someone else is throwing well with the big club.

I am still curious to see how they clear spots on the 40 man to accommodate the new faces. Perhaps they do make a trade to shuffle the deck. It would certainly be good for guys like Gordon that are buried, but it could change where we see depth and risk. (Edit: here I am implying Nick gets traded, not that we somehow rid ourselves of enough 2B or CF depth that he becomes relevant.)

Playoffs can be won with OK starters that make no mistakes and a huge pen that can defend small leads. Examples abound, but no matter how good the pitchers look on paper they have to avoid giving up multiple runs and the offense has to put some runs on the board. Modern playoffs don't require a ten inning Jack Morris shutout, just a solid outing that keeps one of the best teams in the game mostly off the board so your guys can stay within striking distance.  These days it's high risk game of velocity and home runs, not 1968.

[Twinkies are for eating]

On 2/4/2024 at 9:53 AM, MGX said:

I'm guessing the defending champion Texas Rangers see this differently. None of the starters that made big contributions in the post-season were considered "Aces" or "playoff caliber pitchers" going into last season. They made it work with a very good position player group a bullpen that was patched together & some starters who pitched beyond expectations (primarily Eovaldi who has a career ERA of 4.10).

The idea that you can add a SP & that will make all the difference in the playoffs is short sighted. Any improvement in your position player group, bullpen or rotation is valuable. It doesn't have to be from one group.

This isn't the 60's or 70's where a starter will pitch 3 games in a series & go 8+ innings in each start. Those days are long gone & that means all three areas are of similar value in terms generating Wins. IMO a strong position player group holds the most value of the three.

 

On 2/4/2024 at 9:53 AM, MGX said:

I'm guessing the defending champion Texas Rangers see this differently. None of the starters that made big contributions in the post-season were considered "Aces" or "playoff caliber pitchers" going into last season. They made it work with a very good position player group a bullpen that was patched together & some starters who pitched beyond expectations (primarily Eovaldi who has a career ERA of 4.10).

The idea that you can add a SP & that will make all the difference in the playoffs is short sighted. Any improvement in your position player group, bullpen or rotation is valuable. It doesn't have to be from one group.

This isn't the 60's or 70's where a starter will pitch 3 games in a series & go 8+ innings in each start. Those days are long gone & that means all three areas are of similar value in terms generating Wins. IMO a strong position player group holds the most value of the three.

Times have changed I get it. Funny you bring up the Rangers. Didn’t Falvine get outbid for Eovaldi? Garver would have been a nice bat in the postseason. I think Jeffers had one hit. My point is that the Astros knew the rest of our starters after Pablo were hittable. Even Sonny, as great of a regular season as he had faded down the stretch. Top starters have dominant out pitches plural. There is no one on our staff after Pablo that is going to keep us in a game and hand it over to the bullpen with a chance to win come playoff time. Joe Ryan, maybe. If he rediscovers himself. Ober, Paddock? I think not. I’d rather have Blake Snell than any bat or position player available. You can’t tell me you wouldn’t.