How Will the Twins Align the Top of the Lineup in 2024?

[Cody Christie]

In recent years, some clubs have used players atop their batting order who don't fit the traditional archetype for those slots. What options do the Twins have in 2024?

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli isn’t afraid to shake up his lineup when it’s necessary. Some fans might get frustrated with his approach to constructing the batting order, but he alters his hitters depending on the starter for the day and other matchups. The Twins' lineup isn’t finalized for 2024, which can make analyzing it a complicated endeavor. Still, multiple options exist to fill in the top spots for the upcoming campaign.

Leadoff Spot
In 2023, the Twins utilized 13 batters in the leadoff spot, but there was a clear top option in the season’s second half. Edouard Julien started 55 games at the top of the lineup, with no other Twins players making more than 28 starts in that position. As the leadoff hitter, Julien hit .250/.379/.424 (.803) with 10 doubles and eight home runs. It seems likely for Julien to continue to be used in the leadoff spot against right-handed starters, especially with his patient approach at the plate. However, the team might turn to other options when a lefty starts. 

Carlos Correa (28 starts), Donovan Solano (25), Max Kepler (17), and Byron Buxton (13) rounded out the top five players in games spent in the leadoff spot last season. Solano is a free agent, and there are rumors the Twins are attempting to trade veterans like Kepler, so neither player may fit into the leadoff discussion for next year. Correa and Buxton are strong options against left-handed pitchers, especially if both can put last season’s injury concerns behind them. Austin Martin is a dark-horse candidate for the leadoff spot, especially in the season’s second half. Last season, Martin posted a .382 OBP against righties, while also being a threat on the bases. Julien and Martin seem like perfect leadoff hitters, depending on the starting pitching matchup. 

Second
Minnesota’s second slot in the order was straightforward last season, with two players each starting over 40 games. Correa started the most games in the two hole, even though his offensive performance suffered as he battled with plantar fasciitis. Jorge Polanco made 40 starts batting second, where his switch-hitting ability plays well for late-inning pitching substitutions. Polanco hit .261/.356/.425, with seven doubles and six home runs in 153 at-bats behind the leadoff hitter. Correa had a .642 OPS in the two spot, his lowest of any batting order position last season. 

Like Kepler, Polanco has a chance of being traded this season, potentially leaving a hole at the top of the lineup. Baldelli might have to start trusting some younger players, like Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, in the two hole, but Correa seems likely to continue to be used in this position.

Third
The third spot in the lineup was one of the more evenly shared spots for the Twins in 2023. Six players made 12 or more starts batting there, led by Buxton (36 starts), Correa (32), Kirilloff (24), and Lewis (17). If Buxton and Kirilloff are healthy, they are the duo that should be used most regularly in the three hole, depending on the pitching matchup. Lewis made more starts in the third spot than in any other lineup position, while posting a .920 OPS with two doubles and four home runs in 64 at-bats. It will be hard for Baldelli to move Lewis down in the lineup if he continues to hit like he did during the 2023 campaign. 

If the season started today, here’s how the top of the lineup would be penciled in, but other roster changes will come before Opening Day.

Top Three Hitters Versus Right-Handed Pitchers
1. Edouard Julien
2. Jorge Polanco
3. Carlos Correa

Top Three Hitters Versus Left-Handed Pitchers
1. Carlos Correa
2. Jorge Polanco
3. Royce Lewis

How do you think the Twins will order the top of the lineup in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Brett]

So much value in having a guy like Polanco in the 2 hole. If he’s actually traded, do you see Correa and Lewis sliding up with Buxton batting 3rd?

It would be great to see Lee or Martin up towards the top of the order, but that probably wouldn’t be until later in the year.

[Cory Engelhardt]

We will see if all of these guys are still on the roster in a month. But you are right, they will have a strong lineup. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Royce is my #3 hitter no matter who is pitching.  Correa is ok at 1st vs lefthanders assuming his hitting problems last year were caused by his foot problem. Julien is good vs right handers. I like polo at #2 but I'm not sure he will be here.

[ashbury]

Building a traditional top-of-the-lineup with purely tactical advantages in mind (speed at the top, bat control #2, power in the third spot) means that 60+ percent of the time the first assumption of getting the speedster on base doesn't even happen, and then even if he does the second guy may fail 60% of the time in his role, likewise the third batter.  40% times 40% times 40% gets down below a one in ten chance that a traditional choreography pans out, in these tactical terms.

Better to just put three top offensive bats at the top and just let them accrue more plate appearances than their lesser teammates.  They'll get on base, then drive each other in, because they're good.  It's rare that a player with otherwise good batting skills is so deficient in the other aspects of scoring runs that you have to do anything drastic.

Since one of those candidates, Julien, has a strong platoon split, this means a different preferred starting lineup depending on who pitches (as the article states).  Jeffers isn't mentioned in the article, but if you believe in his bat, then he belongs high in the batting order on the days he catches, while someone else takes his place up there on his days off.  Finally, the trend is to rest players periodically, moreso than in decades past, so whoever at the top of your preferred lineup will be replaced by someone on those rest days.

All in all, I don't expect to see anything resembling a set batting order this season.  Pragmatism will be the keyword.

[mikelink45]

I like to have Julien, Lewis and Correa in the top three spots, no matter what moves are made.  

Kiriloff, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Jeffers, Wallner are all fine for 4 - 8 depending on who is left.  Miranda show fit in there, but will he be on the team?  Castro is 9 if he is starting, the second leadoff position.  

It does not matter a lot, but I like speed in the top positions.  

[Fatbat]

Substitute Arraez for Polanco please

[saviking]

We all know the MO has been to change the lineup every fricken day. Jow I wish we could have an honest discussion about who slots in were. But I think it's a waste of time . 

[Otwins]

I think this article shows that Polanco holds a lot of value to the Twins. May bat second no matter who is pitching. Not sure they are going to be willing to trade that value without getting the same in return. After reading this I think he is less likely to be traded.

[jmlease1]

A lot of it depends on how much the Twins try to stack their lineups against pitching matchups, but if I were going to go pitcher-independent, it would probably look something like this (assuming it's the roster we have right now):

1. Julien
2. Polanco
3. Correa
4. Kirilloff
5. Buxton
6. Wallner
7. Lewis
8. Kepler
9. Jeffers

Dang, that's potentially a really brutal lineup to have to face. Seems harsh to slot Lewis in at 7, but Correa is the best fit to hit 3rd and if we keep our lefties split up then it's either 5th, 7th, or 9th. Do I have too much faith in Kirilloff as a hitter? Maybe, but I like his upside a lot. If he's healthy, he hits. Feel free to bump Wallner or Kepler up higher if you don't believe in Kirilloff.

If Martin makes the roster, he could fit in nicely up top against lefties. His skill set is quite good for leadoff, IMHO.

[UK Twin]

I would keep Correa at 3 and Lewis as clean up hitter throughout the season (health/form permitting). I have a lot faith in Correa having a much stronger year hitting and definitely want runners on base for Lewis.  Julien obviously leads off against righties. As for lefties, I would go Farmer as lead off. I really hope we don't trade him as he's a very versatile player and he rakes against LHP's. I'm going to assume Polanco gets traded because I simply think he will. Number 2 slot goes to Buxton, health permitting. 

I know Rocco likes to mix things up but I would try and keep the top 4 as settled as possible. 

So for RHP's my line up would look something like:

1. Julien DH/2B
2. Buxton CF/DH
3. Correa SS
4. Lewis 3B
5. Kepler RF
6. Kirilloff (1B)
7. Jeffers C
8. Wallner LF
9. Castro/Farmer 2B/CF (Obviously not CF if Farmer)

LHP's

1. Farmer 2B
2. Buxton CF/DH
3. Correa SS
4. Lewis 3B
5. Jeffers C
6. Miranda 1B
7. Julien DH (If Buxton is DH then Martin in CF)
8. Castro LF
9. Kepler RF

[Riverbrian]

I am 100% opposed to set lineups and I am 95% opposed to slotting so it's almost a set lineup. 

A hitter can be moved from the leadoff spot to the 7th to the 3rd spot to the 9th spot over the span of 4 game and it should not cause psychological issues nor should it cause a change in approach because approach because the approach should be to make hard contact.   

If a manager does not move his lineup around based on hot/cold or pitching matchups... then the manager is ignoring data that suggests that he should and he would be ignoring data just for consistency sake and what does consistency get you in regards to batting order.    

You want your best hitters at the moment at the top of the lineup. 

Does it make sense to leave a player in the leadoff spot in the midst of 2 for 25 slump? He can move down in the order and move back up when he starts breaking out of the slump.

Does it make sense to leave a batter in the 8th spot for consistency if your 8th hitter has hit 4 home runs in his last 6 games. He can move up in the order and then move back if he cools down. 

Does it make sense to leave a guy in the leadoff spot when he struggles against sliders and Jacob Degrom is on the mound. 

Does it make sense to leave a guy in the 8th spot when he kills the off-speed pitch when Sandy Alcantara is the starter. 

Players produce that type of matchup data... I'm sure the Twins track it. If the lineup doesn't adjust to matchups... the data is being ignored in the name of consistency. What does consistency get you?  

If you move hitters around in the order... that becomes the new norm... the new consistency. 

 

   

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

A lot of it depends on how much the Twins try to stack their lineups against pitching matchups, but if I were going to go pitcher-independent, it would probably look something like this (assuming it's the roster we have right now):

1. Julien
2. Polanco
3. Correa
4. Kirilloff
5. Buxton
6. Wallner
7. Lewis
8. Kepler
9. Jeffers

Dang, that's potentially a really brutal lineup to have to face. Seems harsh to slot Lewis in at 7, but Correa is the best fit to hit 3rd and if we keep our lefties split up then it's either 5th, 7th, or 9th. Do I have too much faith in Kirilloff as a hitter? Maybe, but I like his upside a lot. If he's healthy, he hits. Feel free to bump Wallner or Kepler up higher if you don't believe in Kirilloff.

If Martin makes the roster, he could fit in nicely up top against lefties. His skill set is quite good for leadoff, IMHO.

interesting, but there's no way Kirilloff can hit in the #4 hole based on past performance. I understand wanting a left-handed hitter there to break up the right-handed hitters and to avoid a slew of LH hitters in the 5-8 spots. The problem is that none of the LH hitters are good enough to hit #4 other than the second half 2023 Kepler and who knows if that's ever coming again. Also, you cannot have Lewis hit 7. The difference between each spot in the order is 15 to 18 plate appearances a season (150 game base). The difference between #3 and #7 spots in the order is 60 to 90 plate appearances a season. You can't give those to Kirilloff over Lewis. Has to be the other way around. 

Here's a thought about what I would do (he says throwing it out there and waiting for the probably justified criticism)

Julien

Polanco

Lewis

Buxton

Correa

Kirilloff/Miranda

Kepler

Jeffers

Wallner