Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that we criminally underrate both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  They both have a solid track record of success as well above average mlb starters.  If you take average starter as a #3 starter, that puts both in the #2 to #3 range.  Which you think is better is a matter of some split (and reasonable) opinions. 

Why are they underrated?  I think it's because neither was heralded as a great prospect and we have seen the growing pains along with the good results.  We see the results but wonder about health/durability in Ober and consistency/smoke&mirrors in Ryan because we assume we can't have nice things.  We've only seen Pablo Lopez' good year.  Somehow it always seems like another team's best pitchers are sure things on the mound while ours just have a decent chance for success.  That's mostly a matter of perspective, as I'm guessing that our best seem very daunting for other teams just like theirs do for us. 

I would love it if we could pick up another good pitcher, but I definitely don't think we are in trouble going into the season with who we have.  The odds of Ober or Ryan developing into an even better pitcher are pretty solid.  Patience. . . .

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think that we criminally underrate both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  They both have a solid track record of success as well above average mlb starters.  If you take average starter as a #3 starter, that puts both in the #2 to #3 range.  Which you think is better is a matter of some split (and reasonable) opinions. 

Why are they underrated?  I think it's because neither was heralded as a great prospect and we have seen the growing pains along with the good results.  We see the results but wonder about health/durability in Ober and consistency/smoke&mirrors in Ryan because we assume we can't have nice things.  We've only seen Pablo Lopez' good year.  Somehow it always seems like another team's best pitchers are sure things on the mound while ours just have a decent chance for success.  That's mostly a matter of perspective, as I'm guessing that our best seem very daunting for other teams just like theirs do for us. 

I would love it if we could pick up another good pitcher, but I definitely don't think we are in trouble going into the season with who we have.  The odds of Ober or Ryan developing into an even better pitcher are pretty solid.  Patience. . . .

Joe Ryan has a career 102 ERA+ with a 95 ERA+ in 2023. He's 27 years old. He's a #4 starter on a good team until he puts it together for more than a couple of months.

Bailey Ober is even older at 28. He's older than Pablo Lopez. Yes, his ERA+ is markedly above average but he's also pitched fewer than 300 innings in his career over three seasons. Availability is a skill and while I think he's maybe a decent #3 if you squint a little, he won't cement himself as an above-average pitcher until he pitches 150 innings in a season or even multiple 100+ inning seasons in a row.

[nicksaviking]

I like both pitchers, and they could both be All Stars and be 1 and 2 in the Cy Young voting next year.

But I still want to improve the team. Asking for another pitcher who can be front of the rotation starter should always be the goal. Already having good pitchers doesn't stop the other teams from trying to get even more. 

But really, if these two were actually top of the rotation starters, why did the club go out of it's way to avoid starting them and then when they did start them, pull them early in the playoffs?

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I like both pitchers, and they could both be All Stars and be 1 and 2 in the Cy Young voting next year.

But I still want to improve the team. Asking for another pitcher who can be front of the rotation starter should always be the goal. Already having good pitchers doesn't stop the other teams from trying to get even more. 

But really, if these two were actually top of the rotation starters, why did the club go out of it's way to avoid starting them and then when they did start them, pull them early in the playoffs?

Ryan's Strike Out rate was up, but then his home runs increased by 50 percent, that is probably why for Ryan.

[Riverbrian]

Ryan threw a 112 pitch complete game shutout against Boston on June 22nd last year. His ERA was at 2.98 at that point. 

Over the course of his next 6 starts (32 innings total)... his ERA ballooned to 4.43. In the process of giving up 31 runs over those 32 innings... he was lit up by the Braves, Orioles and Cards. 

He made 29 starts for us. A bad 6 start stretch is the main reason his ERA is being questioned. 

Was he pitching through an injury during that time?

[mnfireman]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Ryan threw a 112 pitch complete game shutout against Boston on June 22nd last year. His ERA was at 2.98 at that point. 

Over the course of his next 6 starts (32 innings total)... his ERA ballooned to 4.43. In the process of giving up 31 runs over those 32 innings... he was lit up by the Braves, Orioles and Cards. 

He made 29 starts for us. A bad 6 start stretch is the main reason he ERA is being questioned. 

Was he pitching through an injury during that time?

Yes, he had a groin injury that he didn't tell the team about and tried to pitch through.

[Brock Beauchamp]

42 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Ryan threw a 112 pitch complete game shutout against Boston on June 22nd last year. His ERA was at 2.98 at that point. 

Over the course of his next 6 starts (32 innings total)... his ERA ballooned to 4.43. In the process of giving up 31 runs over those 32 innings... he was lit up by the Braves, Orioles and Cards. 

He made 29 starts for us. A bad 6 start stretch is the main reason his ERA is being questioned. 

Was he pitching through an injury during that time?

 

12 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Yes, he had a groin injury that he didn't tell the team about and tried to pitch through.

The groin injury is certainly true and hurt him during the middle of the season but after he came back, he pitched to a 4.79 ERA in 35.2 innings. His FIP was over 4.10 as well.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think that we criminally underrate both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  They both have a solid track record of success as well above average mlb starters.  If you take average starter as a #3 starter, that puts both in the #2 to #3 range.  Which you think is better is a matter of some split (and reasonable) opinions. 

Why are they underrated?  I think it's because neither was heralded as a great prospect and we have seen the growing pains along with the good results.  We see the results but wonder about health/durability in Ober and consistency/smoke&mirrors in Ryan because we assume we can't have nice things.  We've only seen Pablo Lopez' good year.  Somehow it always seems like another team's best pitchers are sure things on the mound while ours just have a decent chance for success.  That's mostly a matter of perspective, as I'm guessing that our best seem very daunting for other teams just like theirs do for us. 

I would love it if we could pick up another good pitcher, but I definitely don't think we are in trouble going into the season with who we have.  The odds of Ober or Ryan developing into an even better pitcher are pretty solid.  Patience. . . .

While I think we probably underrate them a little, and it's likely because we watch them far more often than we watch other teams so we see their warts and people tend to have large emotional reactions to negative performances so they stick in our memories more, I think it's pretty unlikely that either develops significantly from here on out. Not impossible, but they're both going to pitch most of this season at the age of 28 so it's likely they've reached about as high as they're going to in terms of talent. Ober could increase his value by showing he can pitch 150+ innings regularly for a few years, but there's not a whole lot of guys in their late 20s who see a sudden spike in development. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I think we probably underrate them a little, and it's likely because we watch them far more often than we watch other teams so we see their warts and people tend to have large emotional reactions to negative performances so they stick in our memories more, I think it's pretty unlikely that either develops significantly from here on out. Not impossible, but they're both going to pitch most of this season at the age of 28 so it's likely they've reached about as high as they're going to in terms of talent. Ober could increase his value by showing he can pitch 150+ innings regularly for a few years, but there's not a whole lot of guys in their late 20s who see a sudden spike in development. 

I don't disagree that we aren't that likely to see a huge spike in development, but I do think that both of them have a little more left in the tank in terms of ceiling.  Both of them are still on the upward/building side of their MLB careers, so I'll gladly take the over (from last year) on both of their performances for 2024.  For Ober, it mostly has to do with health, which could easily happen.  For Ryan, people forget that prior to his injury his performance was as good as any pitcher on the staff.  Avoiding injury and being more forthright about it are also key to his success. 

A lot of tea is being spilled about replacing Sonny Gray in the rotation.  Yes.  I think he was a very good pitcher, but a few more good innings out of Ryan and Ober, combined with some solid performance from Paddack and Varland (or his replacement) can fully replace him.  Remember, the Twins' record in games Gray pitched actually wasn't nearly as good as one might expect by looking at his raw stats.  I think we got everything that we needed to/were likely to out of Sonny Gray and don't really think he will ever duplicate what he did last season either. 

[laloesch]

On 1/14/2024 at 5:53 AM, wabene said:

Pablo at 11 and Berrios at 36. Thanks for this it is interesting. Ober broke an innings barrier and seems determined to excel, very competitive. I like his chances. Ryan is harder to read, he's a different cat. I don't know what to make of the whole phantom injury thing. One time thing or is he prone to fading as the season wears on? Regardless the Twins still need one more starter. 

Ryan is prone to fading because he throws fastballs 56% of the time.  That's far too high considering he leaves them up in the zone where they can get clobbered easily.  

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I don't disagree that we aren't that likely to see a huge spike in development, but I do think that both of them have a little more left in the tank in terms of ceiling.  Both of them are still on the upward/building side of their MLB careers, so I'll gladly take the over (from last year) on both of their performances for 2024.  For Ober, it mostly has to do with health, which could easily happen.  For Ryan, people forget that prior to his injury his performance was as good as any pitcher on the staff.  Avoiding injury and being more forthright about it are also key to his success. 

A lot of tea is being spilled about replacing Sonny Gray in the rotation.  Yes.  I think he was a very good pitcher, but a few more good innings out of Ryan and Ober, combined with some solid performance from Paddack and Varland (or his replacement) can fully replace him.  Remember, the Twins' record in games Gray pitched actually wasn't nearly as good as one might expect by looking at his raw stats.  I think we got everything that we needed to/were likely to out of Sonny Gray and don't really think he will ever duplicate what he did last season either. 

I'll say I certainly hope you're right even if that's not how I'd bet. I will point out that Ryan had a drop in production the 2nd half of 2022 as well. I don't put as much on the injury as others do. 14 starts with 2.99 ERA in 75.1 innings during the first half of 2022 followed by 13 starts with a 4.14 ERA in 71.2 innings in the second half. They're both certainly talented guys and I'm glad to have them on the Twins. But I don't see much room for growth beyond Ober being able to sustain his strength longer into the year. I'm ok with the idea that 1 of them is likely able to fill the #3 spot in a playoff rotation in 2024 (I don't care about 1-5 rankings for pitchers, I care about how much I trust them to start a playoff game), but I think there's a real need to add someone above them if you really want to give yourself a good shot in the playoffs.

I agree Sonny Gray is very unlikely to ever have another season like he did in 2023, and I think that contract is going to look pretty bad in a couple years as it escalates. I also agree they can have a similarly successful rotation by improving in the aggregate. But I'm less confident in the internal pieces being able to do that as you seem to be. Which is all good. Front offices disagree on players and rosters all the time so it's pretty normal for us internet GMs to disagree as well. But I am happy to have the pieces we currently have. Even if I think they're likely a step below where we need them to be to truly take a step forward as a contender.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think that we criminally underrate both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.  They both have a solid track record of success as well above average mlb starters.  If you take average starter as a #3 starter, that puts both in the #2 to #3 range.  Which you think is better is a matter of some split (and reasonable) opinions. 

Why are they underrated?  I think it's because neither was heralded as a great prospect and we have seen the growing pains along with the good results.  We see the results but wonder about health/durability in Ober and consistency/smoke&mirrors in Ryan because we assume we can't have nice things.  We've only seen Pablo Lopez' good year.  Somehow it always seems like another team's best pitchers are sure things on the mound while ours just have a decent chance for success.  That's mostly a matter of perspective, as I'm guessing that our best seem very daunting for other teams just like theirs do for us. 

I would love it if we could pick up another good pitcher, but I definitely don't think we are in trouble going into the season with who we have.  The odds of Ober or Ryan developing into an even better pitcher are pretty solid.  Patience. . . .

"criminally"? 🤔 okayyyyy. 

Anyhow.  I believe Ober is the underrated one.  I like Ryan's potential a lot, but he's got to cut back on the number of fastballs thrown in each start otherwise he's going to continue to get clobbered. He has a tendency to throw up in the strike zone and teams figured this out as the season moved along and he got dinged a lot for it.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 minutes ago, laloesch said:

He has a tendency to throw up in the strike zone.

Yuck.  That really is awful!  I hope they make him clean it up.  Sorry.  I digress.

I put more blame on the injury Ryan had last season than you do, and that's OK.  I just think he never really found his rhythm again after that.  I would also like to see some more innings out of Ober.  I think they are both better than we give them credit for being. 

[laloesch]

Just now, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Yuck.  That really is awful!  I hope they make him clean it up.  Sorry.  I digress.

I put more blame on the injury Ryan had last season than you do, and that's OK.  I just think he never really found his rhythm again after that.  I would also like to see some more innings out of Ober.  I think they are both better than we give them credit for being. 

There's no doubt the injury contributed to his issues, but his tendency to throw too many fastballs was also a factor.  To be honest it's something that can be fixed.  I like both pitchers and think they will be big contributors in this upcoming season along with Paddack and certainly Lopez.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Joe Ryan has a career 102 ERA+ with a 95 ERA+ in 2023. He's 27 years old. He's a #4 starter on a good team until he puts it together for more than a couple of months.

Bailey Ober is even older at 28. He's older than Pablo Lopez. Yes, his ERA+ is markedly above average but he's also pitched fewer than 300 innings in his career over three seasons. Availability is a skill and while I think he's maybe a decent #3 if you squint a little, he won't cement himself as an above-average pitcher until he pitches 150 innings in a season or even multiple 100+ inning seasons in a row.

There are certainly better pitchers in the league than Ober and Ryan, but I think they are written off too often.  I think we are undervaluing them as pitchers. 

For example:  Who would you get more excited about?

Pitcher A:  27 year old pitched 144 innings at 125 ERA+

Pitcher B: 26 year old pitched 190 innnings at 108 ERA+

Pitcher C: 27 year old pitched 177 innings at 97 ERA+

Pitcher D: 27 year old pitched 161 innings at 95 ERA+

The obvious standout here is Pitcher A, but we would love to trade for pitcher B.  Pitcher C and Pitcher D seem like the same guy to me if it's all about what have you done lately (like last year), but I think most would prefer we had Pitcher C on the team over Pitcher D

Pitcher A is Bailey Ober.  Pitcher B is Logan Gilbert. Pitcher C is Dylan Cease.  Pitcher D is Joe Ryan.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'll say I certainly hope you're right even if that's not how I'd bet.

I'm a retired band director.  That makes me a bit of an optimist!  You have to be if you're going to listen to little Johnny attempt to play the oboe!

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm a retired band director.  That makes me a bit of an optimist!  You have to be if you're going to listen to little Johnny attempt to play the oboe!

I feel like I used to be one of the main optimists around here but this offseason I've been a bit of a downer. I blame Falvey for telling us they're cutting payroll and upsetting me before the offseason really even began! But I do hope all you optimists are right, and I'm very much looking forward to the season!

[tony&rodney]

Bailey Ober is a large human and tall pitchers often develop more slowly. Last season Ober was pretty good and it often seemed like he could throw all day. There are still questions about whether Ober can repeat his success of last season for a full year and beyond. Reasonable. I'm thinking Ober has a great shot at settling in as a really good #3 pitcher for several years.

Ryan is a different type of pitcher. He needs to have his control working for him. I do think he can be a really good #4 pitcher a decent run and have confidence in him.

Both pitchers are good but were a bit rundown by the end of last year. I'm expecting more durability this year.

[FilthyMogwai]

I see them as young potential All-Stars on the rise -- Ryan more so than Ober. So maybe I'm over-rating them.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm a retired band director.  That makes me a bit of an optimist!  You have to be if you're going to listen to little Johnny attempt to play the oboe!

Or my older sister learn to play the clarinet - SQUEAK!  Extra credit if you were a junior high school band director.  😀

[Muppet]

Going on memory, and not taking the time to look up all of the different performances, I'd say that Ryan has some growing up to do. He seems to be subject to pressure. If he is facing a well known or ace pitcher, he gets shaky and doesn't do well... which is fine when you usually play the Tigers, Royals, Guardians, White Sox, etc... but doesn't bode well for upper tier teams. Maybe all the attention around Ryan screwing up the second half majorly by playing hurt and losing big will help him get smart. 

My concern with Ober last year was that while he had great numbers, he wasn't really proven. Most of his MLB games came against AAAA teams. In 2023, he was great. If he continues to stay healthy (or rather uninjured... hate the term 'healthy') I'd be more than happy to have him as a 2,3,4, or 5 starter. 

Either way, despite losing what'shisname, I think their pitching looks spectacular going into 2024. But then again, I still have PTSD from watching Colon, Hughes, Slowey, Nolasco, Milone, et al. I've seen some of the worst pitching in my life come from this team. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Or my older sister learn to play the clarinet - SQUEAK!  Extra credit if you were a junior high school band director.  😀

 No.  I’m not able to take the kind of punishment that goes with junior high kids!   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't do the 1,2,3,4,5 thing when labelling starters. These two can get people out so I'll let others slap numbers on them.  

I like them both and I am really glad that they wear a Twins uniform. If people are under-rating them... they should stop doing that.   

The average MLB pitcher in 2023 tossed a 4.26 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. 

Ober has 292 innings with a career ERA of 3.63 with a 1.10 WHIP

Ryan has thrown 335 career innings with a ERA of 4.05 and a 1.10 WHIP. 

They both pitch for the minimum compensation. 

 

 

 

Well above mean, but mean gets weighted low due to the very long tail of quad A fodder, no?

at 100 innings pitched, 117 pitchers hit the FG leader board, by FIP, Ryan was 60, WHIP 35th, ERA 77, so consensus of the 3, would 57th

ober FIP 47th, WHIP #7, ERA #22, consensus 25th out of 117.

i admit, I vastly under-valued Ober. Ryan fell in right at median, where I expected both to come in. Both are very valuable, in terms of pitching really well at rookie contracts.

 

[FilthyMogwai]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I like both pitchers, and they could both be All Stars and be 1 and 2 in the Cy Young voting next year.

But I still want to improve the team. Asking for another pitcher who can be front of the rotation starter should always be the goal. Already having good pitchers doesn't stop the other teams from trying to get even more. 

But really, if these two were actually top of the rotation starters, why did the club go out of it's way to avoid starting them and then when they did start them, pull them early in the playoffs?

I didn't agree with Baldelli's decision to start Ober in Game 1 over Ryan. And I definitely didn't agree with the short leashes on both. However, I'm presuming growth. My hope is that they develop into those guys hopefully as soon as this post season. So I also agree, another playoff caliber starter is needed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

41 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

I didn't agree with Baldelli's decision to start Ober in Game 1 over Ryan. And I definitely didn't agree with the short leashes on both. However, I'm presuming growth. My hope is that they develop into those guys hopefully as soon as this post season. So I also agree, another playoff caliber starter is needed.

I disagreed with Ober game 1 too, but looking back at how good he was last year, top 25 starting pitcher, which makes him a border-line front of rotation starter. There can only be 30 of them, right? Lopez can’t start every game.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Well above mean, but mean gets weighted low due to the very long tail of quad A fodder, no?

at 100 innings pitched, 117 pitchers hit the FG leader board, by FIP, Ryan was 60, WHIP 35th, ERA 77, so consensus of the 3, would 57th

ober FIP 47th, WHIP #7, ERA #22, consensus 25th out of 117.

i admit, I vastly under-valued Ober. Ryan fell in right at median, where I expected both to come in. Both are very valuable, in terms of pitching really well at rookie contracts.

 

LOL... I wasn't thinking quadrilatically. Just wanted down and dirty just to express that the kids are alright. 

Joe Ryan... faced 672 batters last year. K's, BB;s and HR's added up to 263.

FIP removes those other 409 in play events because a ball in play is a bit of a wild card. It attempts to take as much luck out of the equation as possible. 

I still like WHIP so much better. It may not take the luck out of the equation but it does express how lucky those luck events are by the limitation of baserunners. 

But Yeah... Making the Minimum! That's huge value. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

31 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

LOL... I wasn't thinking quadrilatically. Just wanted down and dirty just to express that the kids are alright. 

Joe Ryan... faced 672 batters last year. K's, BB;s and HR's added up to 263.

FIP removes those other 409 in play events because a ball in play is a bit of a wild card. It attempts to take as much luck out of the equation as possible. 

I still like WHIP so much better. It may not take the luck out of the equation but it does express how lucky those luck events are by the limitation of baserunners. 

But Yeah... Making the Minimum! That's huge value. 

 

I like squares

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I like squares

[Riverbrian]

There is no way to prove this statement unless Joe Ryan was traded.

However... IMO... If traded... I think those who are under valuating Joe Ryan would surprised and happy with the return. 

[Jeff K]

On 1/14/2024 at 12:38 AM, Rik19753 said:

Reading comments and articles on Twins Daily, I think Twins fans currently perceive Ryan and Ober as good-but-not-great pitchers that you preferably don't want to start in playoff games. The fact that Ryan was far from great in the 2nd half and that both pitchers were underwhelming in their playoff starts seem to reinforce this idea.

While I generally agree with this perception, a recent post on Fangraphs has me thinking that we may be selling Ryan and Ober short.

Fangraphs released their 2024 fantasy baseball SP rankings, and they had Ryan and Ober as the 30th and 31st ranked SPs, respectively. Obviously, fantasy baseball rankings are different from actual rankings in that they place some value on wins and Ks, but I think you can use them as an estimate as to how players stack up relative to the rest of the league.

Some interesting takeaways from this ranking are

・Ryan and Ober are fringe 1st starters/elite 2nd starters

・More than one third of teams (12 teams to be exact) don't have any pitchers ranked as highly as Ryan or Ober

・While the loss of Gray (ranked 25th) hurts, Ryan and Ober are pretty much in the same tier

・While we dream about trade targets like Luzardo (26th), Mitch Keller (50th), Bryce Miller (51st), Bryan Woo (55th) as playoff caliber starters, even if the Twins acquire one of them the playoff rotation may be Lopez, Ryan and Ober

・Teams can make playoff runs with much worse staffs.

ARI: Gallen(7th), Kelly(59th), Pfaadt(66th)

TEX: Montgomery(41st), Eovaldi(60th), Heaney(114th)

 

This has me thinking that maybe it isn't the worst thing in the world if we don't end up trading for a top of the rotation arm.

I agree with your comments.  That said, with the infield logjam and other tradeable assets, I do feel the Twins should be able to (and should) trade for a #2 or #3 starter to supplement our starters.