Mariners Still Looking For Additional Infielder

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

@harmony55Just curious, what is Sam Carlson up to these days? He was a Minnesota high school prospect drafted fairly high a few years back by the Mariners, and if I remember correctly he got hurt soon in his professional career. 

Not asking for trading purposes, just curious if you know what's going on with him? 

Cory,

https://www.milb.com/player/sam-carlson-672277

Team	Date	Transaction
	January 3, 2024	RHP Sam Carlson assigned to Nashville Sounds.
	November 30, 2023	Milwaukee Brewers signed free agent RHP Sam Carlson to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
	November 6, 2023	RHP Sam Carlson elected free agency.

[harmony55]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

So Polanco wouldn't be an upgrade on Rojas when it comes to improving on the team's OPS+? Didn't you just prove our arguments that Jorge Polanco is an upgrade on Rojas as a hitter?

Jorge Polanco might have the edge in a standard-format fantasy league that counts only hitting stats to the exclusion of other contributions. The Mariners don't play in a fantasy league.

Seattle can't afford to devote another roster slot (and $11 million) to Polanco when the Mariners already have Luis Urias, Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore on the roster,

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Cory,

https://www.milb.com/player/sam-carlson-672277

Team	Date	Transaction
	January 3, 2024	RHP Sam Carlson assigned to Nashville Sounds.
	November 30, 2023	Milwaukee Brewers signed free agent RHP Sam Carlson to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
	November 6, 2023	RHP Sam Carlson elected free agency.

I had no idea he wasn't with Seattle anymore. Thanks for digging that! 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Jorge Polanco might have the edge in a standard-format fantasy league that counts only hitting stats to the exclusion of other contributions. The Mariners don't play in a fantasy league.

Seattle can't afford to devote another roster slot (and $11 million) to Polanco when the Mariners already have Luis Urias, Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore on the roster,

But your statement was that they're looking to improve their OPS+. Isn't that only a hitting stat?

How good is Rojas' defense in order to make up for 18 pts of wRC+ in the projections you quoted? (sorry, I edited this after originally posting so if you respond before hand this sentence was added)

[harmony55]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But your statement was that they're looking to improve their OPS+. Isn't that only a hitting stat?

How good is Rojas' defense in order to make up for 18 pts of wRC+ in the projections you quoted? (sorry, I edited this after originally posting so if you respond before hand this sentence was added)

The 2023 team OPS+ of 106 and 106 were offered in that context only to show that the Mariners and Twins were similarly productive last year,

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2023.shtml

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

The 2023 team OPS+ of 106 and 106 were offered in that context only to show that the Mariners and Twins were similarly productive last year,

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2023.shtml

Ok? But your statement was that the Mariners are looking to improve their OPS+. You also pointed out that Rojas is clearly their worst hitter. You provided a projection for that. Polanco has a projection in the same system and his projection is 18 pts higher than Rojas. Your argument seems to then be that Rojas' defense is so much better than Polanco's that it makes up for the 18 pts of wRC+. I question that assessment when it comes to your stance that Polanco clearly wouldn't be an upgrade to the Mariner's current infield.

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Ok? But your statement was that the Mariners are looking to improve their OPS+. You also pointed out that Rojas is clearly their worst hitter. You provided a projection for that. Polanco has a projection in the same system and his projection is 18 pts higher than Rojas. Your argument seems to then be that Rojas' defense is so much better than Polanco's that it makes up for the 18 pts of wRC+. I question that assessment when it comes to your stance that Polanco clearly wouldn't be an upgrade to the Mariner's current infield.

Over the past two seasons Jorge Polanco has posted 3.3 fWAR in 184 games while Josh Rojas has posted 3.8 fWAR in 230 games, including 1.2 fWAR in 46 games with the Mariners.

Seattle has tendered contracts to Luis Urias with a projected 2024 salary of $4.7 million and Rojas with a projected 2024 salary of $3.5 million. Dylan Moore is guaranteed $6.565 million over the next two seasons, including $3.05 million this year.

The Seattle roster does not have a slot for the $11.25 million guaranteed Polanco, who trails Rojas in fWAR over the past two seasons. The Mariners are unlikely to cut (and eat the salary of) Urias, Rojas or Moore to make room for a 30-year-old infielder who has not posted a season of 2.0 fWAR since 2021. Urias and Rojas each have one option remaining but are unlikely to be sent to the minors.

The value of the venerable Polanco may well be with the Twins.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, harmony55 said:

Over the past two seasons Jorge Polanco has posted 3.3 fWAR in 184 games while Josh Rojas has posted 3.8 fWAR in 230 games, including 1.2 fWAR in 46 games with the Mariners.

Seattle has tendered contracts to Luis Urias with a projected 2024 salary of $4.7 million and Rojas with a projected 2024 salary of $3.5 million. Dylan Moore is guaranteed $6.565 million over the next two seasons, including $3.05 million this year.

The Seattle roster does not have a slot for the $11.25 million guaranteed Polanco, who trails Rojas in fWAR over the past two seasons. The Mariners are unlikely to cut, and eat the salary, of Urias, Rojas or Moore to make room for a 30-year-old infielder who has not posted a season of 2.0 fWAR since 2021.

The value of the venerable Polanco may well be with the Twins.

Over the past two seasons Jorge Polanco has posted 4.8 bWAR in 184 games while Josh Rojas has posted 3.7 bWAR in 230 games, including 0.8 bWAR in 46 games with the Mariners. So no matter which WAR you'd like to use Polanco is clearly the superior player. Injuries did keep his fWAR total lower, though. 

You were claiming Caballero was also a reason they would have no interest in Polanco up until he was traded a couple days ago. They couldn't trade the lesser Rojas for something else in order to improve their team by taking the clearly superior player to help them improve their chances after missing the playoffs for the 21st time in the last 22 seasons last year? Their payroll is really so they tight they couldn't take on the extra 7 mil? Dang, that's a bummer for M's fans.

But we've had enough back and forth on this topic and clearly don't see it the same way. Obviously the chances are Polanco doesn't end up in Seattle because the odds of any individual player ending up on any team is miniscule. But we'll just have to agree to disagree that Seattle wouldn't be interested in him, or be able to find room for him because of Josh Rojas.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

The Seattle roster does not have a slot for the $11.25 million guaranteed Polanco, who trails Rojas in fWAR over the past two seasons. The Mariners are unlikely to cut (and eat the salary of) Urias, Rojas or Moore to make room for a 30-year-old infielder who has not posted a season of 2.0 fWAR since 2021.

The value of the venerable Polanco may well be with the Twins.

It will be very hard for Seattle to make it through the whole season with just 3 infielders for 2 full time spots. The Twins needed Julien, Polanco, Lewis, Gordon, Miranda, Farmer, Solano and Castro to cover 2B and 3B last season. Sam Haggerty is not someone you want playing every day and the Mariners don't even have anyone else on the 40 man roster. They are quite thin on infielders after trading Caballero for Raley. One injury and they're going to be moving Ty France to cover 2B with an outfielder moving to 1B. Two injuries and they will need to add a minor leaguer to the roster.

[August J Gloop]

The Mariners are pretty desperate for quality infielders. They have no money even after ditching Ray's contract. One thought could be for the Twins to send Polo for Haniger's Salary and Bryan Woo. (Why do you keep saying him and not Gilbert or Miller? Well, cuz Woo has better swing and miss stuff and the most long term control.) That would make the move basically the Twins buying 5 controlled years of Woo and a Haniger lottery ticket for 8 Million. If Haniger is healthy, he's pretty good. If not, eh, put him on the 60 day and enjoy the talented young pitcher. 

Flip Kep (and prospects?) on to the Marlins for one (two?) of their cost controlled talents and you've essentially saved 3 Mil and upgraded the pitching considerably without deeply damaging the offensive outlook. In this scenario, you'd probably still need to sign MAT as well. 

[clone52]

On 1/9/2024 at 8:10 AM, Otaknam said:

No to trading Julien. His offensive profile, ability to get on base, and low salary make him an ideal lead off hitter. Mix in his demonstrated power and he is a keeper, not trade bait.

I don't disagree with you about this at all.  Julien is great and would be a keeper.

But, if you could trade for a Pablo Lopez type SP, I'd do it all day.  You still have Polanco to man 2B for 2 years and its possible that Brooks Lee or Austin Martin could be as good or better than Julien.

[jorgenswest]

Kyle Farmer for Anthony DeSclafini

An underwhelming trade but doesn’t it give both teams more depth for a position where their roster is thin?

[clone52]

On 1/9/2024 at 10:26 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Let's be real guys, Julien alone doesn't get you Kirby or Gilbert. He should get us Woo or Miller plus a A or AA prospect ranked 20-30 in the Mariners system, or Hancock plus two prospects.  If Polanco is the bait, getting Woo, Miller, or even Hancock is Polanco plus a real prospect (10-25 in the Twins system), plus an A ball guy minimum. Kirby or Gilbert requires Julien plus a top 10 prospect like Lee.    

i would trade Polanco plus Festa or Raya (plus someone else not in the top 20) for Woo or Miller. Don't want to trade Julien given his OBP and his years of control. Gilbert and Kirby are waaaay out of our price range unless we are willing to trade Lewis or both Julien and Lee or someone like Lee plus a lower level prospect. I'm not willing to do that. 

Are you sure?  Would we have thought Arraez alone would net Pablo Lopez?

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Kyle Farmer for Anthony DeSclafini

An underwhelming trade but doesn’t it give both teams more depth for a position where their roster is thin?

Nah, I want nothing to do with DeSclafini. IF they are trading Farmer, I'd want a prospect back instead, even if it is a B or C level guy.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Kyle Farmer for Anthony DeSclafini

An underwhelming trade but doesn’t it give both teams more depth for a position where their roster is thin?

Farmer is a good player, underrated because he is a utility guy for the Twins. DeSclafani cost $12M and hasn't been good in three years. Think Dobnak. The Mariners wanted to dump Ray and saw haniger and DeSclafaini plus money as a worthwhile deal for the future. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Farmer is a good player, underrated because he is a utility guy for the Twins. DeSclafani cost $12M and hasn't been good in three years. Think Dobnak. The Mariners wanted to dump Ray and saw haniger and DeSclafaini plus money as a worthwhile deal for the future. 

Yeah I wouldn't be shocked to see DeSclalfini retire after 2024. He's had so many arm issues over the years. Wish him well.

[harmony55]

21 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Kyle Farmer for Anthony DeSclafini

An underwhelming trade but doesn’t it give both teams more depth for a position where their roster is thin?

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns a value of a negative $1.2 million for one year of Kyle Farmer with a projected 2024 salary of $6.6 million and assigns a value of a negative $1.1 million for one year of Anthony DeSclafani with a guaranteed salary of $12 million.

The Mariners probably need DeSclafani as rotation depth more than the M's need Farmer as infield depth.

Some Seattle podcasters remain high on Jorge Polanco as a Mariner trade target. Diverse opinions are always welcome,😁

The podcasts have also mentioned Donovan Solano or Willi Castro as potential Seattle acquisitions.

San Francisco third baseman J.D, Davis remains another possibility, especially if the Giants manage to sign Matt Chapman. Davis has a career OPS+ of 113 while Polanco, who is 10 weeks younger, has a career OPS+ of 111. Davis is projected with a 2024 salary of $6.8 million in his final year of team control while Polanco is guaranteed $10.5 million in 2024 and a $750,000 buyout of a $12 million team option for 2025.

Baseball Trade Values assigns Davis a surplus value of $7.4 million and Polanco a surplus value of $9.4 million.

Neither Davis nor Polanco has a good defensive reputation. Last year Davis received conflicting scores in 915.2 innings at third base with five Outs Above Average (OAA) and four Fielding Runs Prevented (RAA), but a negative 11 Defensive Runs Saved and a 0.8 UZR/150.

The Mariners and Giants are frequent trade partners and the M's might prefer the lower cost of Davis over Polanco.

Or neither.

[LA Vikes Fan]

21 hours ago, clone52 said:

Are you sure?  Would we have thought Arraez alone would net Pablo Lopez?

Arraez was an established MLB high average high OPS hitter when he was traded. Julien is at best the 2019 Arraez, an intriguing guy who might just be a high average high OPS guy but who is at least a year from proving that to be the case. You also have to add in two things. First,  pitching is worth more than hitting on the trade market because of scarcity, especially starting pitching.  Second, Julien hit great even Arraez like in June and July, he didn't hit much at all in August or September. Which guy will he be in 2024 forward? I'd bet he's the June and July guy but I sure wouldn't trade for him at a price based on that assumption. 

A guy like Julien is very intriguing and worth an equally intriguing pitcher like Miller, Woo, or Hancock. He isn't yet worth a solid, established starting pitcher like Gilbert or Logan. He just isn't. 

[August J Gloop]

23 hours ago, clone52 said:

Are you sure?  Would we have thought Arraez alone would net Pablo Lopez?

And would you trade him back for Arraez? I assume that at this point anyone the Twins ask after will instantly become more valuable since the team will now think they're missing something. that these wizards are looking to improve on.

[clone52]

51 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

And would you trade him back for Arraez? I assume that at this point anyone the Twins ask after will instantly become more valuable since the team will now think they're missing something. that these wizards are looking to improve on.

No way.  I am saying at the time, people would have been skeptical.  Today, I would trade Julien straight up for Gilbert, Kirby, Keller in a heartbeat.

[clone52]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Arraez was an established MLB high average high OPS hitter when he was traded. Julien is at best the 2019 Arraez, an intriguing guy who might just be a high average high OPS guy but who is at least a year from proving that to be the case. You also have to add in two things. First,  pitching is worth more than hitting on the trade market because of scarcity, especially starting pitching.  Second, Julien hit great even Arraez like in June and July, he didn't hit much at all in August or September. Which guy will he be in 2024 forward? I'd bet he's the June and July guy but I sure wouldn't trade for him at a price based on that assumption. 

A guy like Julien is very intriguing and worth an equally intriguing pitcher like Miller, Woo, or Hancock. He isn't yet worth a solid, established starting pitcher like Gilbert or Logan. He just isn't. 

Some were implying they wouldn't trade Julien for an established pitcher.  I was disagreeing.

[MGX]

22 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

First,  pitching is worth more than hitting on the trade market because of scarcity, especially starting pitching.

I see this stated a lot on this site & it may be true. Just curious if anyone has looked at actual trades (not BTV) & found this to be true? I'm not sure either way, just curious. 

 

[Cris E]

I think the quantities might be similar, but the rate of serious injuries to pitchers is far, far higher so you need more of them.

[cmoss84]

On 1/11/2024 at 11:00 AM, clone52 said:

No way.  I am saying at the time, people would have been skeptical.  Today, I would trade Julien straight up for Gilbert, Kirby, Keller in a heartbeat.

Are you referring to Brad Keller? Because he is a FA (and one definitely worth looking into). Those other guys are going to cost WAY more than Julien. 

[Callup22]

On 1/9/2024 at 7:45 AM, DJL44 said:

Kirby and Gilbert are really good pitchers. To get one of them would require trading someone as good as Julien.

Really like Gilbert and Kirby, but not interested in what it will take to get one of them.

[clone52]

2 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Are you referring to Brad Keller? Because he is a FA (and one definitely worth looking into). Those other guys are going to cost WAY more than Julien. 

 

2 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Are you referring to Brad Keller? Because he is a FA (and one definitely worth looking into). Those other guys are going to cost WAY more than Julien. 

Mitch Keller.

[cmoss84]

56 minutes ago, clone52 said:

 

Mitch Keller.

Yes. He is who I was thinking as well. My mistake. 

[arby58]

On 1/8/2024 at 5:16 PM, DJL44 said:

Seattle actually has the young, good, cheap starting pitchers that would make a Julien trade worthwhile but I doubt Seattle will want to trade any of them.

Julien, as a rookie, had a 130 OPS+, an .839 OPS, 2.6 WAR in just 338 ABs and was 7th in rookie of the year voting. He's hit at every level of minor league ball as well - it better be more than just a 'young, good, cheap' starting pitcher to take that bat out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.

[tony&rodney]

23 hours ago, arby58 said:

Julien, as a rookie, had a 130 OPS+, an .839 OPS, 2.6 WAR in just 338 ABs and was 7th in rookie of the year voting. He's hit at every level of minor league ball as well - it better be more than just a 'young, good, cheap' starting pitcher to take that bat out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.

I might trade Julien for George Kirby, but I might not. The Twins still have Polanco and Lee has promise.

I would not trade Julien for Woo and Brash. We all value different players in our own ways. So does each organization. The answer is a few months away.

[nicksaviking]

On 1/12/2024 at 8:18 PM, arby58 said:

Julien, as a rookie, had a 130 OPS+, an .839 OPS, 2.6 WAR in just 338 ABs and was 7th in rookie of the year voting. He's hit at every level of minor league ball as well - it better be more than just a 'young, good, cheap' starting pitcher to take that bat out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.

Right, Seattle's not going to give the Twins a Sonny Gray replacement for free.

I'm not looking to deal Julien, but getting another top of the rotation arm seems more important than trying to hang on to all of the young players.