Can Josh Winder Sink to Success?

[Cody Pirkl]

Josh Winder’s 2021 breakout minor league season seems like a long time ago, as the 27-year-old is still looking for his footing in the MLB. Could a new pitch be his ticket to contributing to the MLB roster in 2024?

Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, USA TODAY Sports

Josh Winder appeared to be a late-round draft success story in 2021 when he posted a sub 2.00 ERA in Double-A while striking out more than a batter per inning. Health has gotten in his way since, as has a fastball that has been crushed when he’s been healthy. Now a reliever, Winder appeared to find a way to adjust in 2023 with a new pitch. Could it make him a legitimate bullpen piece moving forward?

Winder has an excellent set of secondary pitches. His slider was his most used pitch, holding hitters to a sub-.200 average and sub .300 slugging percentage. His changeup was more than adequate for holding down left-handed hitters. A mid-90s fastball should be plenty to make him an adequate reliever, if not a dominant one. Unfortunately, that fastball just hasn’t gotten it done. 

In his two seasons of MLB action, Winder’s fastball has allowed 11 of the 14 homers he’s allowed in his career. The pitch had significant red flags in 2022 before getting hit even harder in 2023. Last season, Winder’s heater allowed an average exit velocity of 95.7 mph. Shohei Ohtani had an average exit velocity of 94.4 in 2023.

 

Finally, in August, Winder and the Twins made a change. Instead of chasing whiffs with a four-seam up in the zone, they opted for less damaging contact. Winder added a sinker and threw it 5.5% of the time in August and 12.5% of the time in September. In an admittedly small sample, it worked.

 

It’s probably safe to assume that Winder will continue to hone his new fastball headed into 2024. The shape makes it a liability, no matter how hard he throws his four-seam. It’s time to try something new, even if it comes at the cost of a few whiffs.

Health has likely sapped Winder’s hopes of carving out a rotation spot at this point and leaning on a sinker may limit his upside in the bullpen as his strikeouts likely decrease. Still, the Twins won’t rely on Winder to develop into a high-leverage reliever with Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran in the fold.

Instead, a successful spring could earn Winder a middle relief role, where the Twins came up short plenty of times early on in the 2023 season. Replacing his four-seam fastball with even an average sinker should result in more consistency, and his pitch sequencing will be interesting to watch. His four-seam only had a 6.5% whiff rate, and it’s possible a sinker wouldn’t have much of a drop-off in whiffs, if any. 

The book still needs to be written on Josh Winder, and while he may not wind up in the rotation as we once hoped, he still has the opportunity to be a valuable pitcher for the Twins moving forward. He has an option remaining, making him flexible for how the Twins cycle the roster. Despite being 27 years old, he won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2026. The Twins have every reason to give Winder a chance to succeed in 2024, and the early results on his sinker say he could be a surprise contributor.

Is Josh Winder’s new fastball worth being excited about? Could he find himself pitching in the middle innings in 2024? Let us know below!

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[Fatbat]

He is entering his prime and controllable so he could be a great asset to the Twins over the next 4+ years. He is obviously talented and coachable. Health and confidence can go a long way to making him a weapon in the ‘24 bullpen. 

[Karbo]

Maybe he needs to go to Driveline to work on the shape of his fastball. If they are going to use him in middle relief, as long as he gets outs, are the K's that important?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Maybe he needs to go to Driveline to work on the shape of his fastball. If they are going to use him in middle relief, as long as he gets outs, are the K's that important?

Getting outs is the idea! If he can continue to develop the sinker/fastball with less solid barrel contact, fantastic.

35% sinker - 40% slider - 15% changeup - 10% 4-seam sounds like a potentially nice mix for him. Hope he can get it under control & stay on the field with health as well.

[DJL44]

He is the worst pitcher on the team at holding runners so singles and walks have the potential to turn into doubles with a runner in scoring position.

[jmlease1]

31 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Getting outs is the idea! If he can continue to develop the sinker/fastball with less solid barrel contact, fantastic.

35% sinker - 40% slider - 15% changeup - 10% 4-seam sounds like a potentially nice mix for him. Hope he can get it under control & stay on the field with health as well.

If he's relieving, he can probably drop that 4-seam % down to 2%, if not 0%. The slider is good enough to compete, but too many players can handle his fastball and he needs to have something else cooking to get anyone to chase the slider. The 4-seamer pretty much needs to go away; we've got 2 years of MLB data on it and it's it's not just hittable, it's the pitch to crush. Even the velocity isn't that good; he's only 60% percentile and he throws the sinker about as hard as the 4-seam. 

I think he'll get a chance at a middle relief role and if the sinker does work for him he could be a great option as a 1-2 inning middle reliever. But he's got to find a fastball that doesn't get crushed, because the 4-seamer is trash, even at 95mph. Sinker-slider, with the changeup to keep lefties honest and confuse the occasional righty sounds like a much better mix than what he'd been working with.

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

If he's relieving, he can probably drop that 4-seam % down to 2%, if not 0%. The slider is good enough to compete, but too many players can handle his fastball and he needs to have something else cooking to get anyone to chase the slider. The 4-seamer pretty much needs to go away; we've got 2 years of MLB data on it and it's it's not just hittable, it's the pitch to crush. Even the velocity isn't that good; he's only 60% percentile and he throws the sinker about as hard as the 4-seam. 

I think he'll get a chance at a middle relief role and if the sinker does work for him he could be a great option as a 1-2 inning middle reliever. But he's got to find a fastball that doesn't get crushed, because the 4-seamer is trash, even at 95mph. Sinker-slider, with the changeup to keep lefties honest and confuse the occasional righty sounds like a much better mix than what he'd been working with.

IMO, the 4-seam is a show pitch up or out of zone up or in & off the plate to hitters on either side. Basically, it’s a controllable pitch to change eye levels to make his sinker/slider combination to be more effective. 15% of a controllable pitch at 94-95 just off the plate can be of value.

[roger]

Wasn't able to watch Twins on tv two years ago and saw most of his starts at Wichita on MiLB tv.  Man, he was so good.

Would be exciting to see this young, well not that young anymore, man become a vital part of the Twins pen.  As you said, it doesn't have to be a late inning guy.  Could be valuable as a guy who comes in mid-game and throws 2 or 3 solid innings.  Do that every three or four days and he will be earning his $770k by helping the Twins win.

[gman]

The Twins will no doubt need extra relief arms at some times this season, so having guys come in for outs even if not strikeouts is extremely important. Having guys available for outs in innings 4-7 every day is important to a winning season. We seen enough of games getting blown out in those innings. If Winder comes in in inning 5 and gets out in whatever manner I'll take it. Wouldn't be the first pitcher who remade themselves and produced a long career.

[Brandon]

I don’t see why he doesn’t just learn the Screwball nobody seems to throw that pitch anymore, and add a good euphus pitch every hundred pitches or so to help keep batters honest.  Is his brush back pitch any good?   I guess if his career is on the line he could learn the scuffball pitch.  

[High heat]

He has a similar stuff and mix as Griffin Jax.  Would be amazing if he could develop into Jax 2.0

[1985Fan]

If he changes his pitch mix to feature the sinker, he should compete for SP spot. IF he is healthy. Carlos Silva gave the Twins a couple of good seasons in the rotation. I think one season he was #1 starter. Not that those were great rotations. No reason, other than health, that a sinker heavy Winder couldn’t be a #5 guy or depth at St. Paul. 

[Cody Pirkl]

14 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

If he changes his pitch mix to feature the sinker, he should compete for SP spot. IF he is healthy. Carlos Silva gave the Twins a couple of good seasons in the rotation. I think one season he was #1 starter. Not that those were great rotations. No reason, other than health, that a sinker heavy Winder couldn’t be a #5 guy or depth at St. Paul. 

I think his days as a starter are over mostly due to injury unfortunately. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Winder strikes me as a guy without a lot of trade value that could be a throw in on a larger package for a good starter.  Unfortunately, he also seems like a guy who could develop into a terrific relief arm for somebody else if we do that.  That would be kind of painful.  Let's hope he figures it out this spring. 

[saviking]

On 1/7/2024 at 8:49 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Getting outs is the idea! If he can continue to develop the sinker/fastball with less solid barrel contact, fantastic.

35% sinker - 40% slider - 15% changeup - 10% 4-seam sounds like a potentially nice mix for him. Hope he can get it under control & stay on the field with health as well.

10%  So he uses his fastball as a chang-up. I like it!