Can Josh Winder Sink to Success?

Josh Winder appeared to be a late-round draft success story in 2021 when he posted a sub 2.00 ERA in Double-A while striking out more than a batter per inning. Health has gotten in his way since, as has a fastball that has been crushed when he’s been healthy. Now a reliever, Winder appeared to find a way to adjust in 2023 with a new pitch. Could it make him a legitimate bullpen piece moving forward?

Winder has an excellent set of secondary pitches. His slider was his most used pitch, holding hitters to a sub-.200 average and sub .300 slugging percentage. His changeup was more than adequate for holding down left-handed hitters. A mid-90s fastball should be plenty to make him an adequate reliever, if not a dominant one. Unfortunately, that fastball just hasn’t gotten it done. 

In his two seasons of MLB action, Winder’s fastball has allowed 11 of the 14 homers he’s allowed in his career. The pitch had significant red flags in 2022 before getting hit even harder in 2023. Last season, Winder’s heater allowed an average exit velocity of 95.7 mph. Shohei Ohtani had an average exit velocity of 94.4 in 2023.

Finally, in August, Winder and the Twins made a change. Instead of chasing whiffs with a four-seam up in the zone, they opted for less damaging contact. Winder added a sinker and threw it 5.5% of the time in August and 12.5% of the time in September. In an admittedly small sample, it worked.

It’s probably safe to assume that Winder will continue to hone his new fastball headed into 2024. The shape makes it a liability, no matter how hard he throws his four-seam. It’s time to try something new, even if it comes at the cost of a few whiffs.

Health has likely sapped Winder’s hopes of carving out a rotation spot at this point and leaning on a sinker may limit his upside in the bullpen as his strikeouts likely decrease. Still, the Twins won’t rely on Winder to develop into a high-leverage reliever with Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran in the fold.

Instead, a successful spring could earn Winder a middle relief role, where the Twins came up short plenty of times early on in the 2023 season. Replacing his four-seam fastball with even an average sinker should result in more consistency, and his pitch sequencing will be interesting to watch. His four-seam only had a 6.5% whiff rate, and it’s possible a sinker wouldn’t have much of a drop-off in whiffs, if any. 

The book still needs to be written on Josh Winder, and while he may not wind up in the rotation as we once hoped, he still has the opportunity to be a valuable pitcher for the Twins moving forward. He has an option remaining, making him flexible for how the Twins cycle the roster. Despite being 27 years old, he won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2026. The Twins have every reason to give Winder a chance to succeed in 2024, and the early results on his sinker say he could be a surprise contributor.

Is Josh Winder’s new fastball worth being excited about? Could he find himself pitching in the middle innings in 2024? Let us know below!