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Posted

The Minnesota Twins have drafted all over the board since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the front office back in 2017, but Sean Johnson’s group has excelled at finding unexpected value late in the proceedings.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not exactly surprising when a  team nails a first-round pick, especially when they are in the upper half of the group. It’s also not difficult to point out the misses in the first round, as those will always stand out the most and be disheartening. What good developing teams can do, though, is generate big-league production from the late rounds.

For years, fans have dreamed of Royce Lewis being a superstar. That dream feels close to coming to fruition, and the hope is that both Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins can follow suit. Aaron Sabato, Trevor Larnach, and Keoni Cavaco were all later selections in that first round, and the sport is littered with misses on talents like that. For Minnesota, though, a handful of players set to contribute in 2024 can be seen as diamonds in the rough.

Louie Varland - 15th round, 2019
Taken from Division II Concordia St. Paul, the younger Varland blitzed the minors quicker than his elder brother, Gus. Both have since debuted at the highest level, and Louie appears to be one of the Twins' most intriguing options on the mound for the year ahead. He showed eye-popping stuff as a reliever down the stretch last season, but hasn’t fully developed or settled in as a starting option. It would be fun to see Minnesota acquire the elder Varland for the bullpen, too, but regardless, this has been an exciting career arc to observe.

Kody Funderburk - 15th round, 2018
Debuting last season after dominating on the farm, Funderburk acquitted himself nicely. It stands to reason that Rocco Baldelli will heavily rely upon him in relief for the season ahead, if that success carries over to a new year. He presents another left-handed option alongside Caleb Thielbar, and could be the reliever who makes up for the production lost with Emilio Pagan’s departure. Star Tribune beat reporter Bobby Nightengale thinks he could become a standout high-leverage type for the Twins.

David Festa - 13th round, 2021
One of the best pitching prospects in the Twins' system is Festa, who is jockeying with Marco Raya for that title. Last season, Festa finished the year throwing for Toby Gardenhire at Triple-A St. Paul, and he may be one of the first men called upon when the starting rotation needs to lean on internal depth. Festa has the makings of a strong starting option with a relatively safe floor.

Edouard Julien - 18th round, 2019
After dealing Luis Arráez for Pablo López over the offseason last year, the Twins had serious question marks behind Jorge Polanco at second base. Julien didn’t take long to emerge as an option and then show staying power, after being vaulted into the starting lineup. The former Auburn standout had to be convinced to leave school, and the Twins shelling out nearly $500,000 to a pick outside the top 10 rounds in order to make that happen was some of their best work in the draft to date. Julien looks the part of a star leadoff hitter, and while he doesn’t necessarily have superstar traits, he should be a high-caliber regular for the duration of his career.

Bailey Ober - 12th round, 2017
After starting last season at Triple A despite a strong spring, Ober worked hard and positioned himself in a spot where Minnesota couldn’t be without him. He’s now fully entrenched in the starting rotation, and another step forward could have him as the team’s second-best starter, behind López. Ober's trend arrow is still pointing up, and surpassing Joe Ryan or Chris Paddack in the pecking order would hardly be unexpected. Given that the Twins need another reliable arm or two for a postseason series, Ober has the stuff to put himself into that conversation.

Brent Headrick - 9th round, 2019
Although his major-league debut didn’t go as planned, Headrick has consistently shown strong results each time he has moved up a level. Triple A wasn’t a breeze for him in St. Paul, but the strikeout and secondary numbers remained enticing. Headrick was dominant at High-A Cedar Rapids last year, before a bit less impressive results with Double-A Wichita, but another offseason of development (while now knowing what it takes) could be huge for him. Maybe Headrick is a depth starter, or maybe he winds up being a long man out of the pen, but either way, it’s a solid outcome.

The best yet to come: Zebby Matthews (8th round, 2022), Cory Lewis (9th round, 2022), C.J. Culpepper (13th round, 2022)
It’s too soon to consider anyone from the 2023 draft class, but the 2022 group has a trio of late-round pitchers who have stood out. Matthews didn’t dominate at Cedar Rapids like he did for Fort Myers, but the stuff still presents an exciting profile. Lewis might soon find himself as the Twins' best pitching prospect, with a feel-over-power arsenal that includes one of the last knuckleballs in professional baseball. Culpepper is similar to Matthews regarding results, but there’s an opportunity to follow an Ober- or Varland-like path.

How the careers of each of these players turn out remains to be seen, but each rising to the highest level despite being available so late in their respective drafts is impressive. It isn’t Falvey and Levine pulling all of the strings, but a willingness to take chances and Johnson’s group hitting on them results in these success stories.

It's because of development like this that the Twins can also see dips in their payroll, without automatically suffering concomitant lulls in on-field success. As players on pre-arbitration contracts take significant roles and run with them, there will be a suppressed level of financial commitment needed to keep them on the roster. The more the organization can continue to churn out these players, the better for everyone involved.

Are there any other under-the-radar late-rounders in the organization you'll keep an eye on in 2024? Talk about them, and about this impressive bevy of newly polished gems, in the comments.


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Posted

It is nice to see late round picks develop, but it also raises the question on why so many higher round picks then are not developing over the late round guys?  

Posted

The Twins have definitely done well with late round picks recently. Also, Casey Legumina was an 8th rounder who's made it to the majors already. Twins used him to get Kyle Farmer.

I think you're shorting the 2022 late round picks though, I think there are four, not three to add to a future list. Andrew Cossetti is the one I'm most excited about.

Posted

Good article and great topic.  Let's cross our fingers that the Twins staff can continue to find and develop solid players in the later rounds.

Must take exception with one of your comments, however.  Including Trevor Plouffe as a first round miss along with Sabato and Cavaco isn't fair to Trevor or a truthful statement.  Plouffe had a solid big league career both with the Twins and elsewhere.  Certainly wasn't a bust as it appears the recent duo will be.

Posted
1 hour ago, Trov said:

It is nice to see late round picks develop, but it also raises the question on why so many higher round picks then are not developing over the late round guys?  

We have 4 young position players drafted in the early rounds in   Lewis / Wallner / Jeffers / Kirilloff with Lee not far off.  The article is focused on late round players but that does not mean we don't have early round players succeeding.  Canterino might also be included if he can stay healthy and Raya also looks promising.

Posted
13 minutes ago, roger said:

Good article and great topic.  Let's cross our fingers that the Twins staff can continue to find and develop solid players in the later rounds.

Must take exception with one of your comments, however.  Including Trevor Plouffe as a first round miss along with Sabato and Cavaco isn't fair to Trevor or a truthful statement.  Plouffe had a solid big league career both with the Twins and elsewhere.  Certainly wasn't a bust as it appears the recent duo will be.

While Plouffe had a reasonable big league career, I think the author was getting at the fact that he didn’t live up to the high expectations for his draft position.  Better examples might have been Niko Goodrum (2nd round) or Nick Gordon (1st round) or Levi Michael (1st round).  

Posted
20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We have 4 young position players drafted in the early rounds in   Lewis / Wallner / Jeffers / Kirilloff with Lee not far off.  The article is focused on late round players but that does not mean we don't have early round players succeeding.  Canterino might also be included if he can stay healthy and Raya also looks promising.

Maybe Larnach as well?………the reason we don’t have perfect success in the draft and the draft order is that evaluating young talent is subjective on many levels, work ethic varies greatly player to player, and the biggest reason - baseball is hard & not many guys make it from any draft class!!

Posted
45 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We have 4 young position players drafted in the early rounds in   Lewis / Wallner / Jeffers / Kirilloff with Lee not far off.  The article is focused on late round players but that does not mean we don't have early round players succeeding.  Canterino might also be included if he can stay healthy and Raya also looks promising.

Kai Rosario (sp) 2020  is also an early pick that is making his way thru also

Posted

2019 draft class is looking good! The beauty of those late rounders is beating the odds and expectations. Picking those types of guys is an art form. As always, I am amazed at the Twins FO staff that seems to be hitting on 3-6 solid MLB’rs in each draft. 

Posted
8 hours ago, roger said:

Good article and great topic.  Let's cross our fingers that the Twins staff can continue to find and develop solid players in the later rounds.

Must take exception with one of your comments, however.  Including Trevor Plouffe as a first round miss along with Sabato and Cavaco isn't fair to Trevor or a truthful statement.  Plouffe had a solid big league career both with the Twins and elsewhere.  Certainly wasn't a bust as it appears the recent duo will be.

Looks like he referred to Trevor Larnach, not Plouffe. Larnach has left a lot to desire upto this point.

Posted
15 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Looks like he referred to Trevor Larnach, not Plouffe. Larnach has left a lot to desire upto this point.

It was Plouffe when I read it.  

Posted

I was thinking that at some point this year the Twins might have as many as eight #1 picks on the field—Kirilloff, Lee, Correa and Lewis in the infield and Wallner, Buxton and Larnach in the OF. Maybe Gordon at second and Lee at shortstop would be all eight being first rounders for the Twins. 
 

To the OP, yes having later round draft choices thrive really helps a franchise. The truth is that every successful team has a mixture of home-grown high choices plus players acquired by other means or lower picks. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I was thinking that at some point this year the Twins might have as many as eight #1 picks on the field—Kirilloff, Lee, Correa and Lewis in the infield and Wallner, Buxton and Larnach in the OF. Maybe Gordon at second and Lee at shortstop would be all eight being first rounders for the Twins. 
 

To the OP, yes having later round draft choices thrive really helps a franchise. The truth is that every successful team has a mixture of home-grown high choices plus players acquired by other means or lower picks. 

And a second rounder behind the plate, good point. 

Posted

I’ll also note that, with the exception that of Julien, the late-round finds are pitchers. Maybe the Twins are good at developing and building successful pitching. They have tended to choose hitters in the early rounds and with their international signings. 

Posted

Good article except you may be a little over the top on Julien. He has very poor range in the field and is very slow on the double play turn. Horrible footwork. And the last 6 weeks of the year his K's sky-rocketed. It appears the league may have figured out that a cutter in on his hands is the way to get him out. So don't be so fast in dis-carding Polanco.

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