To Trade, or Not To Trade Max Kepler: That Is the Question

[Fatbat]

Seems very simple to me, plan on keeping him and if he is having a good season and we are looking like WS contenders, ride it out thru the playoffs and extend him a QO. He will likely turn it down and sign a 3-4 year contract for 50+M. We get the best chance at having a quality RF in ‘24 and an additional draft pick in ‘25. Everyone wins in this scenario.

If by chance something goes sideways, we trade him at the deadline in august for a prospect or he simply walks. Small chance of the worst case scenario happening. 
 

Extending Kep doesn’t make much sense, we have cheaper options in ‘25/26 and he will be wanting a big payday.  

[JoeCool]

Trade Kepler and sign a FA to a short term deal. I don’t think he will replicate his second half last year and we can get a lot for him right now.  
 

Adam Duvall and/or Nick Senzel would be great adds to help bring some pop against lefties.  Walner, Gordon, Castro, and Kiriloff can do some damage against the righties.  I also do love the idea of moving Royce Lewis to the outfield.  He has the speed that upgrades the defense.  It also helps remove some of the middle infield logjams and maybe opens up a slot for Austin Martin if any of the outfielders get injured.  

[Fatbat]

52 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I completely gave up on Kepler and Gallo last June. 

I would have released both last June for nothing. I said it then, I felt it strongly to my core and I still stand by it today regardless of the Kepler turnaround for a couple of months. . 

I will not act like Kepler is all of a sudden valuable. After 2.5 years of sub par play... I would have released him in June and given his job to anyone. It would be hypocritical of me to say... gotta have him now... when I would have let him go and paid him to not play. 

Except that Kep is play ‘24 for a big payday. Big motivation will likely provide big results. 

[Finlander]

Fatbat's got it right.

Funny, when discussing player values it's all about the bat. The fact that Kepler is a great defender has to be considered. The defense contributed to the effectiveness of the pitching staff, and by extension to the entire team. 

Of the higher salaried players supposedly on the trade block, I would prioritize trading Vasquez and Polanco above Kepler. We didn't know what we'd get out of Jeffers after 2022, so Vasquez was brought in for push and protection as a starting-capable catcher. Mission accomplished - Jeffers was pushed into great improvement. The Vasquez salary is worthy of a (mostly) full time starter, but we're probably handing the keys over to Jeffers. Vasquez could start for any number of other teams. So he's gone. We can find an inexpensive backup.

There is more depth at Polanco's position than at Kepler's, and Jorge hasn't really ever been considered an elite defender. He has versatility and is a switch hitter. So is Castro. So I'd move Polanco before Kepler.

I'd keep Kepler and reassess near the trade deadline. If he's doing well and we're contending, he's a good investment, and should be worth doing a QO. If he is slumping a bit, we market him as a second half player to trading partners and get what we can. By this time the young OF hierarchy should be sorted out and a suitable replacement identified.

All of this isn't meant to say don't trade Kepler. If there is a ridiculous offer that helps the Twins greatly, then why not? But I'd be looking to move Vasquez and Polanco first if I could. Losing Kepler's defense during a playoff push would not be trivial.

[RpR]

10 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Lewis in CF changes our OF depth a lot (or LF if Buxton has a miracle recovery). That has been discussed in numerous other threads so I won't dive any deeper.

Lewis is not going to center field.

[nicksaviking]

I just struggle to understand why people think the last two months from a 30-year-old OF are more indicative of his future play than the rest of his prior eight years. This was a lotto ticket situation the Twins pulled out of their butt; cash it in before it’s worth nothing.

We’re talking about getting pitching or prospects back (get pitching) PLUS $10M in additional free agent funds. Odds are that a Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins in addition to whatever equity you get back in the trade is almost certainly going to yield better results short term and long term. If the team can get value from him now, I’d move him even if the payroll was $200M.

Though full disclosure: my sentimentality level in pro sports is at an all time low, I only care about a championship. Long time players currently have zero pull on my heartstrings. Ship them in, ship them out. I know that’s pretty cold. I didn’t used to feel that way and understand that others do.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I just struggle to understand why people think the last two months from a 30-year-old OF are more indicative of his future play than the rest of his prior eight years. This was a lotto ticket situation the Twins pulled out of their butt; cash it in before it’s worth nothing.

We’re talking about getting pitching or prospects back (get pitching) PLUS $10M in additional free agent funds. Odds are that a Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins in addition to whatever equity you get back in the trade is almost certainly going to yield better results short term and long term. If the team can get value from him now, I’d move him even if the payroll was $200M.

Though full disclosure: my sentimentality level in pro sports is at an all time low, I only care about a championship. Long time players currently have zero pull on my heartstrings. Ship them in, ship them out. I know that’s pretty cold. I didn’t used to feel that way and understand that the others do.

I don't know what to expect from Kepler either but I do know that we are thin in the OF.  If we trade Vazquez as is now rumored and Polanco we are down to $102M,  Would clearing $10M for Kepler make a difference.  I guess like always it comes down to the return.  I would not be on Kepler if a good return was available.    I am hoping Polanco and Kepler go to Seattle for one of their young pitchers.  

[Fezig]

Auf weidersehen, Max. 

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Except that Kep is play ‘24 for a big payday. Big motivation will likely provide big results. 

I've often heard such things said. Contract year motivation and such. 

There are plenty of examples of players who turn into pumpkins after signing that big contract. Although... without researching it... I believe you will probably find Aaron Nola type down years stacked next to Sonny Gray up years. I know it is a narrative that has existed for quite some time. Yet... I'm not sure that I can dive into those waters. 

If true... the whole idea of it pisses me off. The suggestion that a player doesn't care, is not focused or holds back his specialness until that special year so he can put it all together when needed for that big contract. I really don't want to think of baseball players with a talent spigot that THEY can turn on at will. If that's the case... I wouldn't want a player who couldn't trouble himself to turn on the spigot for 2.5 years like Kepler did. I'm more inclined to believe that baseball is hard. Those pitchers are good... even the bad pitchers can chuck that baseball and for 2.5 years Kepler wasn't good enough. 

 

[Linus]

I have no idea what to do here. I know that I wouldn’t extend him nor would I give him the QO. That means he’s a short term asset that would be good to cash in. It’s hard to know what to expect from him in 2024 but generally I would put more emphasis on the 2.5 years he was not good with the bat over the last half season. So all of the above means he should be moved. BUT we don’t have enough outfield depth to move him without bringing someone back in via trade or free agency which kind of brings us full circle. I suppose it would be worth it if we could bring in a younger right handed hitting outfielder but seems like really threading the needle. 

[roger]

20 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Lewis in CF changes our OF depth a lot (or LF if Buxton has a miracle recovery). That has been discussed in numerous other threads so I won't dive any deeper.

It may have been discussed here, but the Twins and his agent have said he is staying at third.

[roger]

Was thrilled to see the above comment about the shift and other factors getting into his head.  The result was he was not the hitter he could be.  It was a mental thing.  With last year’s changes, it took the first half of the season to retrain his brain and become the hitter he was capable of.  
 

Another fact I have not seen mentioned was a comment from him when he signed his current contract.  Don’t recall the exact comment but it was along the lines of being shocked at how much he was being paid to play a game.  I believe it was also indicated he would play for less.  So don’t discount his signing an extension for a lot less than the numbers being thrown around above.

[SockNet]

Kep spent 2.5 years terrible at the plate. He had to be scoldedmid-year to start preparing like a big leaguer to start performing in 2023. I think that's a pretty good indication of his work ethic. Prime for regression. Value high. Trade him, now.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't know what to expect from Kepler either but I do know that we are thin in the OF.  If we trade Vazquez as is now rumored and Polanco we are down to $102M,  Would clearing $10M for Kepler make a difference.  I guess like always it comes down to the return.  I would not be on Kepler if a good return was available.    I am hoping Polanco and Kepler go to Seattle for one of their young pitchers.  

Yeah, there are guys in AAA the team could plug in, but that's not the MO, and it's fine with me as I know how unappetizing that is to most folks. But the offensive side of the roster is pretty much already locked up. The last spot on the bench, the Larnach/Gordon/Miranda spot is basically the only available seat at the table, so unless another player (Kepler, Polanco, etc) are removed from the equation, there's not much room to improve the offense. I think combining the savings of Kepler with the remaining free agent money will easily get you back a better player than Kepler. And really, I only like three free agents. Turner and Hoskins, who would bump Kirilloff back to the OF, or Lourdes Gurriel. All of whom have a long track record of being an above average hitter.

[SteveLV]

Me, I am thinking the opposite direction, at least for exploration.

I would approach Kepler and his agent with a 2 year extension offer, something like 2/!12.5M.

If he takes it, RF is locked up for the future.  If he declines, explore the trade market for him.

This FO has shown the propensity to trade established players in their last year when the FO determines they will not offer the QO at the end of the year.  Kepler--unless he absolutely mashes in 20240--does not justify the QO.

[TopGunn#22]

The name of the game is to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.  Max has been one of my favorite Twins players since he came up, but he has also been very frustrating with his offense.  The Twins are in a classic "sell high" situation.  Kepler, Polanco and even possibly Vasquez are going to be dealt this off season to reduce the payroll minus a TV deal that ownership is projecting a $55 million dollar revenue loss. 

The frustrating part of the TV revenue projections are that the Twins aren't going to be $55 million in the hole.  They will get a large chunk of that back for 2024.  This is what makes our ownership annoying at times.

RH hitters like Adam Duval and Nick Senzel can be added to the roster pretty cheaply.  Trading Kepler at the height of his value (at least since 2020) with Max only being a Twin for one more season and a rotation that needs some re-stocking is smart baseball.  It's time to cash in the chips on Kepler and Polanco, and maybe even Vasquez if Miami or Seattle really have interest in him.

As fans, we had no idea Solano, Taylor or Gallo were on the Twins radar at this point last year.  There are guys on the roster now or out there the Twins can use to replace Max, Polanco or even Vasquez.  Fill the rotation holes.  Get a RH bat or two to balance the LH bats.  Since RpR will surely downvote this but not bother to comment, I welcome reactions to my thoughts from everybody else.   

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, there are guys in AAA the team could plug in, but that's not the MO, and it's fine with me as I know how unappetizing that is to most folks. But the offensive side of the roster is pretty much already locked up. The last spot on the bench, the Larnach/Gordon/Miranda spot is basically the only available seat at the table, so unless another player (Kepler, Polanco, etc) are removed from the equation, there's not much room to improve the offense. I think combining the savings of Kepler with the remaining free agent money will easily get you back a better player than Kepler. And really, I only like three free agents. Turner and Hoskins, who would bump Kirilloff back to the OF, or Lourdes Gurriel. All of whom have a long track record of being an above average hitter.

The Hoskins move fits nicely.  As you point out it makes Kirilloff available for the OF.  I remain hopeful they can piece this together.

[tony&rodney]

De ja vu on the Max Kepler conversations .... not that this is a bad thing. We have all been here before.

The entire range of options have been laid out and commented on in a reasonable enough fashion. I'm guessing all of these ideas have been floated within the roundtable led by Falvey as well, both last offseason and in the present. 

Kepler may have had a couple of down seasons before his resurgence in the last half season, but I would caution anyone against making judgments on his character or work ethic. Athletes do not come with light switches or dimmers. The path of preparation is not similar for any two people and the adjustments needed on a constant basis diverge along many avenues. Suffice it to say that if anyone could just follow the formula, everyone would do it and superstars would abound. There are more than a few stars who were good but nothing extraordinary as high school athletes and exceptional fellows who stood out once upon a time only to crash and burn. 

The Twins spent much bigger than guessed last year and the turnabout has presented challenges of where to adjust in order to field a similarly strong team in 2024. Performances, as best shown by Kepler's 2023 season, are not static and the current roster is fully capable of making forward strides next season with minimal help from outside. Due to the financial situation and past practice I have a difficult time envisioning the Twins signing a Snell/Montgomery/Yamamoto. The demand for pitching may have pushed Giolito, Severino, and even Wacha beyond the Twins pockets. I wonder if a 3/$49 million contract for Lourdes Gurriel Jr is enough and/or possible to help the offense? I wonder if Miami can be a source (Cabrera)? I wonder what combination of players might interest the Mariners?

I'm fine with any combination of trades that makes the Twins a better team next year and beyond. Last year I naively proposed sending Arraez and three other to Miami for Pablo Lopez, which only tells me that I do not know the value of the players. While I have looked over BTV, I would suggest they are even further off than many ideas on Twins Daily. 

Kepler looks good in rightfield and unless a team comes forward I;m looking forward to Max at his very best in 2024. Who knows, perhaps he has finally found his peace and is ready to be a star.

[Fatbat]

@Riverbrian I still can’t figure out why Kep had 2.5 down years and now looks solid again.  Something had to have clicked in his adjustments at the plate. Whatever that is, if it translates to a consistent’24, people will say it was contract year performance. 

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@Riverbrian I still can’t figure out why Kep had 2.5 down years and now looks solid again.  Something had to have clicked in his adjustments at the plate. Whatever that is, if it translates to a consistent’24, people will say it was contract year performance. 

Me neither.

I will say this: Kepler had to get nuclear after the all-star break to fix it. 

The power was similar pre to post all star break but balls not going over the fence started finding green.  BABIP went from .213 to .351 Pre All Star Break to Post 

2023 Pre All Star Break:

AB's - 203

BA - .207

OPS - .688

HR's - 12 HR's 

2023 Post All Star Break: 

AB's - 235

BA - .306

OPS - .926

HR's - 12

 

 

 

 

[Fatbat]

15 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Me neither.

I will say this: Kepler had to get nuclear after the all-star break to fix it. 

The power was similar pre to post all star break but balls not going over the fence started finding green.  BABIP went from .213 to .351 Pre All Star Break to Post 

2023 Pre All Star Break:

AB's - 203

BA - .207

OPS - .688

HR's - 12 HR's 

2023 Post All Star Break: 

AB's - 235

BA - .306

OPS - .926

HR's - 12

 

 

 

 

and if those 2nd half numbers continue. His value skyrockets and we won’t be able to buy that in a trade or FA.

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

and if those 2nd half numbers continue. His value skyrockets and we won’t be able to buy that in a trade or FA.

If those 2nd half numbers continue. He's Cody Bellinger. 

He would be the type of player that we can't afford to lose. 

If they don't continue and go back to what made me pull my hair out for 2.5 years. 

He would be the type of player that we can't afford to roster. 

I don't have to think about it much because I made my decision on Kepler back in June.

I have removed the luxury of making a decision on Kepler today by making the decision yesterday because to quote the Eagles from 1974. He's "Alllll-Ready Gone... All Right - Nighty Night... Alllllll-Ready Gone". 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

51 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

and if those 2nd half numbers continue. His value skyrockets and we won’t be able to buy that in a trade or FA.

But we have an eight year career from Max Kepler to draw conclusions from. I think it's reasonably safe to say that the odds are much higher that he's more likely to disappoint than to excel. I mean if I was looking at this objectively and had little knowledge of Kepler, I'd have little faith that a 31-year-old finally became a star player, and I'd want little to do with him:

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Me neither.

I will say this: Kepler had to get nuclear after the all-star break to fix it. 

The power was similar pre to post all star break but balls not going over the fence started finding green.  BABIP went from .213 to .351 Pre All Star Break to Post 

2023 Pre All Star Break:

AB's - 203

BA - .207

OPS - .688

HR's - 12 HR's 

2023 Post All Star Break: 

AB's - 235

BA - .306

OPS - .926

HR's - 12

 

 

 

 

The odds that he has a babip that high ever again are very slim. 

I'd trade him. But they won't, imo, unless he is part of a deal for a SP. 

I would understand if they don't.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Me neither.

I will say this: Kepler had to get nuclear after the all-star break to fix it. 

The power was similar pre to post all star break but balls not going over the fence started finding green.  BABIP went from .213 to .351 Pre All Star Break to Post 

2023 Pre All Star Break:

AB's - 203

BA - .207

OPS - .688

HR's - 12 HR's 

2023 Post All Star Break: 

AB's - 235

BA - .306

OPS - .926

HR's - 12

 

 

 

 

Wow I hadn’t seen those babip numbers. Me think serious regression is on the way. 

[Riverbrian]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

The odds that he has a babip that high ever again are very slim. 

I'd trade him. But they won't, imo, unless he is part of a deal for a SP. 

I would understand if they don't.

Some folks look at BABIP as a luck stat.

I tend to look at it as a plate discipline stat... a swinging at better pitches and making better contact stat. 

This leads me to the assumption that higher or lower BABIP is between the ears. Hitting what the pitchers want you to hit is going to make your BABIP suffer. Punishing the pitch they didn't want to throw you will make that BABIP shine. 

His hard hit% went from 20% in May to 44.8% in August. 

What changed... No idea but the first place that I would look is in between the ears. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Some folks look at BABIP as a luck stat.

I tend to look at it as a plate discipline stat... a swinging at better pitches and making better contact stat. 

This leads me to the assumption that higher or lower BABIP is between the ears. Hitting what the pitchers want you to hit is going to make your BABIP suffer. Punishing the pitch they didn't want to throw you will make that BABIP shine. 

His hard hit% went from 20% in May to 44.8% in August. 

What changed... No idea but the first place that I would look is in between the ears. 

 

 

We'll disagree here I think. 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

What changed... No idea but the first place that I would look is in between the ears. 

 

 

Ouch. If you're able to saw him open that far, I suspect it will impact impact his game negatively.

[ashbury]

If BABIP is baseball IQ, big name players across the majors routinely get smarter and dumber and then smarter again year after year. 

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We'll disagree here I think. 

Disagreements are ok... although I'm not sure why we would disagree here. 

Subtract his Home Runs, K's and Sacrifices, the difference between a .213 Pre-All Star break BABIP and .351 Post All Star Break BABIP is about 20 more hits on this side of the wall over 20 more AB's Pre to post. 

The only thing that significantly changed in his batted ball profile is his hard hit percentage which went up pre to post and his soft hit percentage which went down pre to post.    

They coincide in the curious case of Max Kepler. He didn't bloop and seeing eye single his way to better numbers. He started hitting the ball harder. About 35 Balls Hit Hard post all star break compared to Pre.