"Very strong chance" Twins trade Jorge Polanco This Winter

[jorgenswest]

I am confident Polanco will be an adequate 3B with time to prepare in the spring. He had little preparation last year in a rehab. Julien may be best suited to 1B and needed there if Kirilloff isn’t ready or isn’t very good following the latest surgery. There is space for both Polanco and Julien.

Acknowledging there is space, I would absolutely trade Polanco for starting pitching.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

Because his value is high right now and he has players that can replace him at -- at least 90% of production and 10% of the cost. Same reason we should be moving Max. We have replacement players in the system that need to play and if we can get a pitcher great... if not if we can get quality minor leaguers that can contribute in the future that is also a win. Win/Win/Win... 

Mind you I like both players but we have to look at the big pitcher. 

Sorry, but I just don't see it.  Going off the belief that Julien is not the answer defensively at 2B, there is NOBODY in the minors ready to replace him.  Same with Kepler.  If there were guys at that 90% point you are talking about, we would have seen them this year.  We didn't and we don't.

You have a known player, a successful player, at a very cheap salary point.  You have a borderline WS team with a window to win.  Now is not the time to be trading these types of guys.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 11/13/2023 at 8:38 PM, Riverbrian said:

You are making him a utility/bench player... I'm not. 😉

I'm telling that it's not a thing...You have to personally make into a thing to make it a thing. You make it into a thing by creating self created absolutes like "Polanco can't play SS or 3B, other than in an emergency".

First off... Most people think that Polanco is a better 2B than Julien but Julien's defensive shortcomings are OK while Polanco's defensive shortcomings are made into absolutes. I hear ya but that logic is selective.  

2nd off... Emergencies happen every single year. When was the last time the Twins went through a season with 4 infielders staying off the disabled list. Why would anyone expect it to occur in 2024 and why would anyone shorten a 26 man roster knowing that 162 game health hasn't occurred in our memories. Especially when nobody has the ability to predict the sequence of injuries to our infield that will surely occur in 2024. 

Polanco played 15 games at 3B last year during the regular season and we still made the playoffs.

Why did he play 3B? Because Miranda was anointed the primary 3B going into the season after a real nice first year and he failed in his 2nd year and got himself sent down, Because Lewis was hurt for the first few months and then landed on the disabled list two more times after he was initially reinstated. Because Julien who didn't make the opening day 26 man roster started to hit the ball much like Miranda did in 2022 and made himself necessary and the team had to adjust to a new combination of players that made the team better.

Rocco and the front office could have easily gone with Farmer at 3B when Polanco and Julien were in the same lineup together out of necessity. They didn't because the combination of Polanco and Julien made our lineup better and they didn't because they still were not allowing Julien to hit left handers and Farmer needed to come to face the left handed emergency. Polanco started 3 games at 3B in the playoffs. We won two of them. Lewis was hurt again. Rocco could have started Farmer at 3B with everything on the line. He chose Polanco again at 3B. 

As for SS... Correa is much much much better defensively at SS this is true. Polanco was shifted to 2B because Polanco handles 2B better than he handles SS... I also believe this to be true. I want to be clear that I am not advocating that Polanco plays SS in 2024...  But... But... back in 2019... Polanco played 142 games at SS and we won 101 games so please... no absolutes. We are taking degrees... This player might be better at a position... this player might be a better hitter. We are talking degrees but a better player is a better player. 

I will never choose a lesser player for a roster because of a little crowding... I will never choose a lesser player for a roster because I'm looking for a backup who I really really hope doesn't play. I will never assume that a player on the roster will not play. I will assume that players on the 26 man roster will play and play a lot.

This team has depth... we can survive the injuries that will surely come... keep that depth and make your top end stronger. Don't give up top end for prospects.  

And don't assume that your top prospects are going to be in the ballpark of the player they are replacing.  I will take the successful known over the unknown 99% of the time.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 11/14/2023 at 3:39 PM, DJL44 said:

Quite often that player is Jorge Polanco. I don't think he's worth $10M for a half season of games and that's why I'd trade him.

He actually is worth $10m for half a season, one of the main arguments for keeping him.... but I can understand and appreciate the frustration with the injuries.

[1985Fan]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

He has played 1 whole game at First Base, Brilliant.

I think there was a recent Twins catcher named Mauer that went to first base. At the end of his career, he was praised for his gold glove skills at 1B. I’m sure you know that Morneau was a catcher turned 1B? MLB history is full of catchers moving to first. Jeffers will have a full off-season to work on it. And it wouldn’t be full time or permanent. If it comes down to spending on SP, CF, RP, vs. 1B, I’d rather they try Jeffers platoon. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

I think there was a recent Twins catcher named Mauer that went to first base. At the end of his career, he was praised for his gold glove skills at 1B. I’m sure you know that Morneau was a catcher turned 1B? MLB history is full of catchers moving to first. Jeffers will have a full off-season to work on it. And it wouldn’t be full time or permanent. If it comes down to spending on SP, CF, RP, vs. 1B, I’d rather they try Jeffers platoon. 

Then bring back Mauer; Jeffers's is not a Maurer behind the plate so that is a poor analogy.

[specialiststeve]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Sorry, but I just don't see it.  Going off the belief that Julien is not the answer defensively at 2B, there is NOBODY in the minors ready to replace him.  Same with Kepler.  If there were guys at that 90% point you are talking about, we would have seen them this year.  We didn't and we don't.

You have a known player, a successful player, at a very cheap salary point.  You have a borderline WS team with a window to win.  Now is not the time to be trading these types of guys.

Will  have to agree to disagree. Having 2 options at 2B including Julien who improved a ton during the year and Lee who has a chance to be an all star at that position are clearly SOMEBODY!! and a good and logical choice. 

As far as Kepler again Larnach, is the CLEAR choice that we have that we have a ton invested in and will need an opportunity to play. 

Given the cost cutting we are going to have to do.. you may "want" to stay with status quo but moving forward is a reality Twins fans need to embrace... it is coming... and should be coming. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

He actually is worth $10m for half a season, one of the main arguments for keeping him.... but I can understand and appreciate the frustration with the injuries.

That would make him worth $20M for a whole season, which would make him the 3rd highest paid 2B in the league after Altuve and Semien. I like Polanco but he's not that good. The Twins upgraded on him by having Julien and Farmer share the position.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That would make him worth $20M for a whole season, which would make him the 3rd highest paid 2B in the league after Altuve and Semien. I like Polanco but he's not that good. The Twins upgraded on him by having Julien and Farmer share the position.

If he was playing full time, he would be providing 4-5 WAR per season, instead of the 1.5-3 he is providing now.  $20m is not that outrageous for that type of production...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

12 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Will  have to agree to disagree. Having 2 options at 2B including Julien who improved a ton during the year and Lee who has a chance to be an all star at that position are clearly SOMEBODY!! and a good and logical choice. 

As far as Kepler again Larnach, is the CLEAR choice that we have that we have a ton invested in and will need an opportunity to play. 

Given the cost cutting we are going to have to do.. you may "want" to stay with status quo but moving forward is a reality Twins fans need to embrace... it is coming... and should be coming. 

If the Twins believed Lee had All-Star capabilities, do you think he would still be toiling in the minors? Larnach's window is quickly closing in Minnesota... 

I am fine with giving the prospects a chance, Lee should have a chance to earn some time.  But you only need to look at Miranda to know what can happen when you anoint an unproven player.  Polanco and Kepler are inexpensive for what they provide.  There is nobody behind them pushing for their spot that is solid enough to supplant them.  The Twins window to win is now.  Mid-market teams covet these types of players, you don't trade them.

[specialiststeve]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

If the Twins believed Lee had All-Star capabilities, do you think he would still be toiling in the minors? Larnach's window is quickly closing in Minnesota... 

I am fine with giving the prospects a chance, Lee should have a chance to earn some time.  But you only need to look at Miranda to know what can happen when you anoint an unproven player.  Polanco and Kepler are inexpensive for what they provide.  There is nobody behind them pushing for their spot that is solid enough to supplant them.  The Twins window to win is now.  Mid-market teams covet these types of players, you don't trade them.

You probably need to read up a bit on Lee... He is a TOP end prospect that many experts believe he will be a stud.. ala Lewis. He should be ready by next summer. And you are right about Larnach.. his window is closing a bit so getting him the opportunity is VERY important. 

Clearly you and I (and the front office) have a different view of what "inexpensive" is ... Polanco/Kepler = 20.5 million... Lee(or Julian)/Larnach = 1.4 mil.... Value ... opportunity... actually now is the perfect time to trade them. Like both Polanco and Kep but the smart business decision is fairly clear. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

You probably need to read up a bit on Lee... He is a TOP end prospect that many experts believe he will be a stud.. ala Lewis. He should be ready by next summer. And you are right about Larnach.. his window is closing a bit so getting him the opportunity is VERY important. 

Clearly you and I (and the front office) have a different view of what "inexpensive" is ... Polanco/Kepler = 20.5 million... Lee(or Julian)/Larnach = 1.4 mil.... Value ... opportunity... actually now is the perfect time to trade them. Like both Polanco and Kep but the smart business decision is fairly clear. 

I am very aware of the reports on Lee.  I am finding it hard to believe you expect a WS contending team like the Twins to turn a full-time 2B job over to a minor league SS that is one year removed from Rookie Ball and has 38 games in AAA where he batted .237 with an OPS of .731.  Why is this even a discussion?  He may turn out to be what you say, but he has not shown he is ready to take the reigns.

Also, for the record, Kepler and Polanco provided 4.9 WAR last year for the Twins.  The Twins are totally fine paying $4m per WAR when the going rate is much higher.  Stop looking at the dollars in a bubble and look at what they bring to the table.

As I stated earlier, I do not believe Julien is the 2B of the future.  His bat is great, but a full-time 2B he is not.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

As I stated earlier, I do not believe Julien is the 2B of the future.  His bat is great, but a full-time 2B he is not.

Julien is not going to be a utility player, or 1B, or full time DH. Fair to say, you favor dangling Julien as a player to trade. Maybe you feel he has peaked and has high value that can be combined with another player or two to bring in a strong starting pitcher. Is that close? What is true is that Falvey will need to make those calls.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Julien is not going to be a utility player, or 1B, or full time DH. Fair to say, you favor dangling Julien as a player to trade. Maybe you feel he has peaked and has high value that can be combined with another player or two to bring in a strong starting pitcher. Is that close? What is true is that Falvey will need to make those calls.

I have never said they should trade Julien, only that I don't believe his future is at 2B.  He has tremendous offense potential, but they need to find him a defensive home were they do not need to pull him out for a defensive replacement in the late innings.  Maybe 1B or OF...

[specialiststeve]

On 11/16/2023 at 1:03 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am very aware of the reports on Lee.  I am finding it hard to believe you expect a WS contending team like the Twins to turn a full-time 2B job over to a minor league SS that is one year removed from Rookie Ball and has 38 games in AAA where he batted .237 with an OPS of .731.  Why is this even a discussion?  He may turn out to be what you say, but he has not shown he is ready to take the reigns.

Also, for the record, Kepler and Polanco provided 4.9 WAR last year for the Twins.  The Twins are totally fine paying $4m per WAR when the going rate is much higher.  Stop looking at the dollars in a bubble and look at what they bring to the table.

As I stated earlier, I do not believe Julien is the 2B of the future.  His bat is great, but a full-time 2B he is not.

"WS contending team" ?  I am the eternal optimist most of the time but we are pretty far from that at this point. Winning one series was a step in the right direction but world series contenders?

Not seeing it.

Would LOVE to see it ... but we are still a ways off realistically. 

You may be right and the FO may hold onto one or both... but if they are given a decent deal for either or both expect that we will see a move.. like it or not. 

Time will tell. 

[FlyingFinn]

On 11/17/2023 at 8:39 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Maybe 1B or OF...

Julien will not be an OF as that experiment was short-lived in the minors. 1B or 2B are his positions and he improved a lot at 2B by September last year (still below average but moving in the right direction).

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

"WS contending team" ?  I am the eternal optimist most of the time but we are pretty far from that at this point. Winning one series was a step in the right direction but world series contenders?

Not seeing it.

Would LOVE to see it ... but we are still a ways off realistically. 

You may be right and the FO may hold onto one or both... but if they are given a decent deal for either or both expect that we will see a move.. like it or not. 

Time will tell. 

Playoff team that won a series... Not sure what your interpretation of a WS contending team is...

[Doctor Gast]

On 11/13/2023 at 9:54 AM, chpettit19 said:

Arguing that stats that compare the same thing for every player in baseball with the same criteria are biased while the human eye that can't possibly see every player in baseball, and are attached to a fan of a certain team are unbiased is a real bold claim. Our eyes do lie. All the time. Humans are nothing if not biased. Defensive stats have a long way to go still, but our eyes absolutely lie. And, if you want to get into the tall weeds on things, some of the defensive stats are based on human eyes. Eyes that watch far more games of far more teams than the typical Twins fan so the eye test is actually baked into some of those stats already. The eye test is almost never as effective as the stats, especially with the high speed cameras that are now used to produce some of the stats. Those cameras are so much better than the eye test it's not even worth discussing.

I agree that your eyes can deceive you when watching TV or don't catch everything. Many elite CF can make difficult catches look routine & many below average OF can dive for a ball that you see on the camera at the end of a play & everybody thinks that he just made a wonderful play but when you see the whole play you discovered that this guy just dived for a routine fly ball.

I agree that we have much more sophisticated methods to find more correct & precise data like range  (range factor/9 innings last year; Julien's was 3.67. The league average was 4.06) & catch probablity which I think is absolutely fantastic! But these absolute stats are rarely used. Some people prefer to use complicated stats with bias baked into them to prove their point. Let me use a simple example that I can even understand. Scouting Grades you have Hit-Power-Run-Arm-Field. One prospect example has Field 50 (yet he can play any position on the field including pitcher & plays CF, SS & catcher very well)- Arm 70- Run 60 (not taking into account that he's a catcher)- Hit 50 (college .388/.426 OBP- milb .350/ .408) & Power 40 (college slg .509- milb slg .600, OPS 1,008). Just looking at the score & everything is equal you'd think his overall score would be the mean of the combined score which would be around 55 which is a pretty good prospect but his overall scouting grade is 45 which tells you he's not that good. He was penalized in his hitting, power & overall because he was a line drive hitter, although his #s were great. Because there's a heavy bias towards HR hitters.

FOs love to serve writers a lot of their bias hype & stats & they go on X (Twitter) & serve it to everybody that follow them. And that where too many people get there info from & think it's unbias facts. X is a platform where everyone is pushing their agenda. I don't follow Twitter. I try to keep an open mine.

You say #s don't lie but #s can be manipulated, incomplete, not taken in account underlying conditions to push a certain point of view.

[DJL44]

On 11/18/2023 at 10:51 AM, specialiststeve said:

"WS contending team" ?  I am the eternal optimist most of the time but we are pretty far from that at this point. Winning one series was a step in the right direction but world series contenders?

Not seeing it.

Would LOVE to see it ... but we are still a ways off realistically. 

You may be right and the FO may hold onto one or both... but if they are given a decent deal for either or both expect that we will see a move.. like it or not. 

Time will tell. 

Last year's team was .500 in the postseason and they beat the heck out of Texas in September. They weren't that far off, one or two players away.

[stringer bell]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Last year's team was .500 in the postseason and they beat the heck out of Texas in September. They weren't that far off, one or two players away.

That one or two players could have/should have been Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Correa, in his age 28 year put up a disappointing 1.4 WAR and Buxton, in his age 29 year, had a WAR of 0.8. Expecting near peak from each due to their prime ages would have netted something like 7 WAR and made a decent lineup near elite. No team can expect all key players to be healthy, but besides the disappointments of Correa and Buxton, Lewis missed over 100 games, Kirilloff more than 70 and Polanco only played in 80 games, but if Buxton and Correa could have contributed average production for peak years, they probably get a #2 seed and maybe a trip to the World Series.

I would say that the way Texas played in the postseason, they would have been a tough out for any team, but the Twins did handle them just weeks earlier.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

That one or two players could have/should have been Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Correa, in his age 28 year put up a disappointing 1.4 WAR and Buxton, in his age 29 year, had a WAR of 0.8. Expecting near peak from each due to their prime ages would have netted something like 7 WAR and made a decent lineup near elite. No team can expect all key players to be healthy, but besides the disappointments of Correa and Buxton, Lewis missed over 100 games, Kirilloff more than 70 and Polanco only played in 80 games, but if Buxton and Correa could have contributed average production for peak years, they probably get a #2 seed and maybe a trip to the World Series.

I would say that the way Texas played in the postseason, they would have been a tough out for any team, but the Twins did handle them just weeks earlier.

Correa was great in the postseason, not sure how you could ask more from him. I agree that Buxton might have helped but they got to the playoffs without him. They needed more offense from 1B than an injured Kirilloff and more from LF than an overwhelmed Wallner.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They needed more offense from 1B than an injured Kirilloff and more from LF than an overwhelmed Wallner.

I'll agree with the first part of that statement, but Wallner was far from overwhelmed. After struggling early in the season at the plate and in the field, he got called up for good on on July 17 and slashed .237/.354/.500 with 13 HR & 37 RBI in 65 games (32/92 over 162 games) and played passable defense in LF. To make the SSS even smaller, he slashed ,284/.411/.514 from September 1 until the end of the season with 4 HR 15 RBI in 26 games (25/93 over 162 games) and the team went 17-9.

[DJL44]

53 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

I'll agree with the first part of that statement, but Wallner was far from overwhelmed. After struggling early in the season at the plate and in the field, he got called up for good on on July 17 and slashed .237/.354/.500 with 13 HR & 37 RBI in 65 games (32/92 over 162 games) and played passable defense in LF. To make the SSS even smaller, he slashed ,284/.411/.514 from September 1 until the end of the season with 4 HR 15 RBI in 26 games (25/93 over 162 games) and the team went 17-9.

And then he went 0 for 8 in the playoffs with 3 walks, 1 HBP and 5 strikeouts. How he did in September doesn't really matter when it comes to beating the Astros.

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

And then he went 0 for 8 in the playoffs with 3 walks, 1 HBP and 5 strikeouts. How he did in September doesn't really matter when it comes to beating the Astros.

There is a lot more blame to go around than just Wallner in the series loss to Houston. The team slashed .198/.308/.373; and just .150/.189/.290 if you remove Correa and Julien's stats. As I said, lots of blame to go around.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

There is a lot more blame to go around than just Wallner in the series loss to Houston. The team slashed .198/.308/.373; and just .150/.189/.290 if you remove Correa and Julien's stats. As I said, lots of blame to go around.

Right, but Wallner and Kirilloff aren't in the lineup for their defense like Taylor and Jeffers. LF and 1B need to produce offensively if the team is going to win in the playoffs.

[FlyingFinn]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

LF and 1B need to produce offensively if the team is going to win in the playoffs.

What about RF?

[RpR]

45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And then he went 0 for 8 in the playoffs with 3 walks, 1 HBP and 5 strikeouts. How he did in September doesn't really matter when it comes to beating the Astros.

If you want to spend the time, there are probably web sites that speak of "start"

who flopped, or repeatedly flopped in the post season.

I will give Wallner a break on this one.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

What about RF?

Kepler wasn't great but at least he had a couple doubles. Jose Abreu and Yordan Alvarez of Houston show what an advantage it can be to have a big bat available.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Right, but Wallner and Kirilloff aren't in the lineup for their defense like Taylor and Jeffers. LF and 1B need to produce offensively if the team is going to win in the playoffs.

The Astros exploited the massive hole Wallner has on the inner 3rd of the plate and if he can't close that hole in his swing he's going to be in trouble moving forward.

[Mike Sixel]

52 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And then he went 0 for 8 in the playoffs with 3 walks, 1 HBP and 5 strikeouts. How he did in September doesn't really matter when it comes to beating the Astros.

Tiny sample sizes are ridiculous.... Corbin Carroll was just as bad for a similar stretch in the playoffs, then single handedly brought his team to the next round. Seriously