Pagan Doppelganger resigns with Braves for 3 years and 26 million.

[Brandon]

This guy has a similar career arc that Pagan has.  years of almost effective reliever but for this reliever he made strides 2 years ago in Detroit and last year the same ERA or within .05 of Pagan.  He got 26 million for 3 years.  If Pagan's market is anywhere near this we should look at low cost free agents and hope Canterino makes it up as the next big thing next year and that Moran finds the strike zone as well.  

Braves Sign Joe Jiménez To Three-Year Deal - MLB Trade Rumors

[clone52]

Yeah, I'd either go with a more expensive sure thing or a bunch of cheaper options.

With Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart and Funderburk, you have a good start.  You can fill one spot with a "break in case of emergency" guy like Winder, Sands, Headrick.

Between Alcala, Henriquez, Canterino, Balazovic, Moran you have several who might show up and fill a role.

I have a feeling that before too long next year, Varland will move full time to the pen and be a STUD.

Based on what I just wrote, I'd probably just go with a few minor league free agent type arms.  If a current stud fell into your lap, I'd go for that too.  Like if you decided to make a deal from depth in a trade for David Bednar, I'd say go for it.

How about Bednar and Mitch Keller for Julien, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Marco Raya?

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I don't think anyone was under the impression that Pagán was not going to be worth $6-9M APY. With the Twins's analytical approach and their (non-existent) history paying relievers, I am almost certain Pagán will not be back. Jiménez is overrated somewhat, so it's possible that Pagán's market is lower than $8.7M APY, but Funderburk is probably going to join the leverage corps, and it is probably wise to let him walk.

[mnfireman]

Jiminez will be 29 in January, Pagan will be 33 in May. Similar numbers or not, Pagan is not getting the same contract.

[nicksaviking]

Jimenez is 3.5 years younger and has strung together two good seasons of effective relief work compared to Pagan's one season. I could see Pagan getting a two year deal, but I'd be surprised if he gets three.

Atlanta does have a history of getting their current players to take below market deals, but Pagan shouldn't be able to match that deal. 

I really couldn't say if Pagan has actually figured things out, or of the law of small sample sizes just finally swung in his favor for a few months. In any case, I don't have strong feelings one way or the other about re-signing him.

 

[stringer bell]

Putting together the two years that Pagán played for the Twins, Emilio had a 3.67 ERA, 3.72 FIP and 1.149 WHIP in 132.1 innings. Those are okay numbers for a middle reliever, I suppose and would be less affected by SSS. That doesn't bring in the dreadful meltdowns at crucial times.

As mentioned above, Pagán is three and a half years older than Jiménez and only has had one effective season (2023) since the pandemic. 

[DocBauer]

Pagan had 3 straight years of mediocre to awful. Low and medium leverage most of the time or not, the tweaks the Twins helped him make worked. At least for a year. As a result, he got some higher leverage opportunities in the second half and did OK.

He made $3.5M in 2023. I'd be happy having him back for $4-4.5M in 2024, and make the assumption we're getting the same guy back. Does someone see his 2023 and decide he's worth a multi year $6+M per deal and just ignore his previous 3 seasons? If so, more power to them. The Twins won't do that and they shouldn't. 

But...and I can't believe I'm saying this...I'd like him back for somewhere in the $4 to $4.5M range.

[Brandon]

I was just looking at the 8 million then 9 million a season and thinking I wouldn't pay Pagan this much.  I do think under 5 million is what I would pay for him. so that's a big gap if the market can approach 8 million for Pagan then good for him.  It won't be here.  there are too many other options I think to pay that much.  we can always add minor league depth to compete for spots if need be.  

[ashbury]

To me the 40-man roster spot is more valuable than a million or three dollars, plus or minus.  If the price starts to be the deciding factor, at the level being discussed here, I have to ask myself again if I really want him.

Does Rocco trust him?  That's the key question for roster construction.  A guy you're paying veteran money to, should not be a guy you have to carefully pick the moments for, so as to hide him.  In 2023, first half, Rocco didn't use Pagan much in high leverage situations.  In the second half, he did - not like Duran of course, but in close games and not simply mopup.  If that's the usage in 2024, he's worth it.  If not, then not.

A guy you have to hide, might as well be a rookie making rookie money.

Of course, I want better than that for my roster, period.  A bullpen full of guys you have to hide isn't a useful bullpen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

56 minutes ago, ashbury said:

To me the 40-man roster spot is more valuable than a million or three dollars, plus or minus.  If the price starts to be the deciding factor, at the level being discussed here, I have to ask myself again if I really want him.

Does Rocco trust him?  That's the key question for roster construction.  A guy you're paying veteran money to, should not be a guy you have to carefully pick the moments for, so as to hide him.  In 2023, first half, Rocco didn't use Pagan much in high leverage situations.  In the second half, he did - not like Duran of course, but in close games and not simply mopup.  If that's the usage in 2024, he's worth it.  If not, then not.

A guy you have to hide, might as well be a rookie making rookie money.

Of course, I want better than that for my roster, period.  A bullpen full of guys you have to hide isn't a useful bullpen.

Agreed, also to add, need to use the low leverage innings to develop middle relievers and middle relief innings to develop late inning relievers. At 33, there isn’t much ceiling left… better to give those innings to pitchers with a higher ceiling

[tony&rodney]

Good luck to Emilio Pagan. He finished his Twins career with a solid year.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, clone52 said:

How about Bednar and Mitch Keller for Julien, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Marco Raya?

I'm not sure how you came up with this trade and put this combination together. Did the thought of Pagan leaving or the contract for Jimenez spark the thoughts of adding pitching? Bednar has three years left and Keller two years left of salary control. Decent. Both are excellent pitchers that would help any team. Julien was essentially the player that got the Twins going this year. Maybe he has peaked. Emmanuel Rodriguez is right there with (in talent) Walker Jenkins, but prospects can always fail. I like the idea of thinking about pitching but I'm going to ask that Pittsburgh throw in Skenes if Erod goes the other way. The Pirates are looking for a second baseman, but trading those two would lengthen their rebuild as well. Who knows though? Don't see a match with this trade. I do like how bold it is, but too bold for me.

[Doctor Wu]

15 hours ago, clone52 said:

Yeah, I'd either go with a more expensive sure thing or a bunch of cheaper options.

With Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart and Funderburk, you have a good start.  You can fill one spot with a "break in case of emergency" guy like Winder, Sands, Headrick.

Between Alcala, Henriquez, Canterino, Balazovic, Moran you have several who might show up and fill a role.

I have a feeling that before too long next year, Varland will move full time to the pen and be a STUD.

Based on what I just wrote, I'd probably just go with a few minor league free agent type arms.  If a current stud fell into your lap, I'd go for that too.  Like if you decided to make a deal from depth in a trade for David Bednar, I'd say go for it.

How about Bednar and Mitch Keller for Julien, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Marco Raya?

Bednar and Keller would both be good additions, but that's MUCH TOO HIGH a price to pay for them. 

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Good luck to Emilio Pagan. He finished his Twins career with a solid year.

Are we so sure that he won't be back next year? 

[TopGunn#22]

That's too rich for Pagan.  Currently, the highest priced relief pitchers on the Twins roster are Pagan and Theilbar.  Caleb will be 37 next year and usually has about 3 I.L. stints in the course of a season.

If it were up to me, I'd look to trade Theilbar before his production completely goes off a cliff.  I'd go with Funderburk, Stewart and Moran at a fraction of the cost to keep Theilbar/Pagan.  Add to that, the potential move of Varland to the pen and the potential electric stuff of Matt Canterino and I don't see the Twins throwing big dollars at any relief pitchers.

More likely, I see them looking to add a couple SP allowing for the Varland move to the BP.  One via trade and a lower priced SP like Eduardo Rodriguez (who looks to cost about $5 million less per year than Sonny Gray).  A move to the pen for Varland in no way ends the chance he wouldn't ever be a SP again.  But if Moran can throw strikes more consistently, Funderburk just does what he did this year and Canterino stays healthy the bullpen reinforcements have arrived.  

[clone52]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not sure how you came up with this trade and put this combination together. Did the thought of Pagan leaving or the contract for Jimenez spark the thoughts of adding pitching? Bednar has three years left and Keller two years left of salary control. Decent. Both are excellent pitchers that would help any team. Julien was essentially the player that got the Twins going this year. Maybe he has peaked. Emmanuel Rodriguez is right there with (in talent) Walker Jenkins, but prospects can always fail. I like the idea of thinking about pitching but I'm going to ask that Pittsburgh throw in Skenes if Erod goes the other way. The Pirates are looking for a second baseman, but trading those two would lengthen their rebuild as well. Who knows though? Don't see a match with this trade. I do like how bold it is, but too bold for me.

Oh, I don't know that they need Bender, but I'd rather see them get a top end guy, or some minor league free agents, than spend millions on some fringe guy.

Keller is a guy I want them to pursue.  I think he has the potential to take off like Pablo Lopez.

The trade was pure speculation using that Baseball Trade Values just to ballpark it.  I don't want to trade Julien, but I could totally see them going that route like they did with Arraez.  They have depth that could replace him, and there are some people that worry about his defense (he'll improve so I'm not worried about that).  They could start the year with Polanco at 2B and also have Lee, Martin and Severino as possible replacements.

This would all be dependent on Pittsburgh deciding that their window is not the next 2 years.  If they aren't idiots, they'd realize that trading Bednar for prospects makes sense.  RPs are always risky to drop off a cliff.  If they are idiots, they won't realize they should extend Keller.

Keller only might go something like this.  Severino, Festa, Canterino.

[tony&rodney]

33 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Oh, I don't know that they need Bender, but I'd rather see them get a top end guy, or some minor league free agents, than spend millions on some fringe guy.

Keller is a guy I want them to pursue.  I think he has the potential to take off like Pablo Lopez.

The trade was pure speculation using that Baseball Trade Values just to ballpark it.  I don't want to trade Julien, but I could totally see them going that route like they did with Arraez.  They have depth that could replace him, and there are some people that worry about his defense (he'll improve so I'm not worried about that).  They could start the year with Polanco at 2B and also have Lee, Martin and Severino as possible replacements.

This would all be dependent on Pittsburgh deciding that their window is not the next 2 years.  If they aren't idiots, they'd realize that trading Bednar for prospects makes sense.  RPs are always risky to drop off a cliff.  If they are idiots, they won't realize they should extend Keller.

Keller only might go something like this.  Severino, Festa, Canterino.

This is a good explanation. Just a couple of points worth considering. BTV? it is interesting, but does anyone really believe that Griffin Jax, who we like, is a close match for Juan Soto?  There are dozens of examples of insane trades possible using the numbers from that site. Emmanuel Rodriguez may be among the top ten prospects in baseball and yet his value is more than 50 points less than many other equal prospects and similar to Griffin Jax. 

Again, I like the idea of thinking who can be acquired and Keller (from Cedar Rapids, Iowa) would be a strong addition to any team.

The other piece of any trade is to think like a fan of both teams in hopes of finding a transaction that fills needs for each of the squads. Bednar may be a possible idea if the Twins send back a starting pitcher or add a good prospect to Polanco.

Some people hate the idea of suggested trades but others of us like playing around for fun. It's just a goofy guessing game by all of us and about the same as the national "experts" who make money writing up their ideas. We are not GMs or PBOs, just fans. We have to keep the ideas moving.

[AceWrigley]

This is a little off topic but since Eddie Julien's name came up here, who would you rather have as your full time first baseman, Julien or Alex Kirilloff?

[clone52]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is a good explanation. Just a couple of points worth considering. BTV? it is interesting, but does anyone really believe that Griffin Jax, who we like, is a close match for Juan Soto?  There are dozens of examples of insane trades possible using the numbers from that site. Emmanuel Rodriguez may be among the top ten prospects in baseball and yet his value is more than 50 points less than many other equal prospects and similar to Griffin Jax. 

Again, I like the idea of thinking who can be acquired and Keller (from Cedar Rapids, Iowa) would be a strong addition to any team.

The other piece of any trade is to think like a fan of both teams in hopes of finding a transaction that fills needs for each of the squads. Bednar may be a possible idea if the Twins send back a starting pitcher or add a good prospect to Polanco.

Some people hate the idea of suggested trades but others of us like playing around for fun. It's just a goofy guessing game by all of us and about the same as the national "experts" who make money writing up their ideas. We are not GMs or PBOs, just fans. We have to keep the ideas moving.

Its not perfect, but it gets you in the ballpark.  The thing with Soto is that he has 1 year left and he's a free agent.  If a team wants him, they want him to sign him longer term, so he'd be worth more than BTV gives him credit for.

Now if Juan Soto came out and said he was retiring at the end of the 2024 season, a Jax for Soto trade might make sense.  Jax has a lot of value.  Super cheap for the next 4 years.  If he were a free agent this year, he'd be getting 8-10M per year at least.  

If Emmanuel Rodriguez truly is a top 10 prospect, then yeah, the Pirates trade doesn't make sense.  Rodriguez (or Lee or Jenkins) would probably be enough to get both Bednar and Keller on their own.  I'm assuming he's still in the 50-100 range and I think thats the kind of deal it would take to get those 2.  I personally don't see Rodriguez as having having more value than Lee or Jenkins, though.

Another route you could go is Matt Wallner as the top guy in a trade.  Something like Wallner, Festa and couple others might get that trade done.

All of this all depends on the teams evaluation too.  29 teams might think Prospect X is a fringe top 100 guy and 1 team think he's a top 10 prospect and sure thing.

I'm curious if you have some trade ideas, for Keller or for the pair.  I love the speculation.

 

[clone52]

3 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

This is a little off topic but since Eddie Julien's name came up here, who would you rather have as your full time first baseman, Julien or Alex Kirilloff?

If healthy, I like the idea of a Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis infield of the future.  That is with a healthy Kiriloff of course.  To start the year I'd imagine its going to be Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis.

First base always seems like something you could fill easier than some other positions if you had to trade someone away.  They've got some options available if they had to fill it (Miranda bounce back, Brooks Lee position change, Yunior Severino).  Also, if Buxton's knee's are too much for CF, could he give 1B a try?  Might be less impact on his knees.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, clone52 said:

 

I'm curious if you have some trade ideas, for Keller or for the pair.  I love the speculation.

Not for Keller because it seems quite unlikely that Pittsburgh would trade any pitcher. They were 22nd in runs scored for their offense but have some young guys. Likewise the Pirates pitchers are 22nd (from best) in giving up runs. So they need to improve. I also am greedy and want someone that is possibly better. There are a couple of things I look for: 1) WHIP 2) BAA 3) BB:K 4) years and 5) availability. Of course, we do not know who exactly is available. We can guess that Seattle and Miami are a couple of teams worth calling.

Alas, we are off topic here because this thread is about whether Pagan will get a good contract and perhaps some speculation whether the Twins would pay a reliever. To those questions I'm guessing Pagan gets a decent deal and the Twins do not spend for big for a relief pitcher.

[AceWrigley]

6 hours ago, clone52 said:

If healthy, I like the idea of a Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis infield of the future.  That is with a healthy Kiriloff of course.  To start the year I'd imagine its going to be Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis.

First base always seems like something you could fill easier than some other positions if you had to trade someone away.  They've got some options available if they had to fill it (Miranda bounce back, Brooks Lee position change, Yunior Severino).  Also, if Buxton's knee's are too much for CF, could he give 1B a try?  Might be less impact on his knees.

I was thinking Lewis-3B, Correa-SS, Lee-2B. Then where does Eddie Julien play? Will Alex Kirilloff be healthy enough to be considered a full time firstbaseman? I'd almost rather have Julien at 1B.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I was all excited to read about a player named "Pagan Doppelganger"

 

Oh well.

[Major League Ready]

If they are willing to spend significant money in the BP, I prefer they get a LHer. 

[Jham]

Personally, I think Pagan has worth that goes beyond pitching. He's shown incredible resilience and willingness to compete. I think he's a great influence for a young pen. You can't always control results. That's magnified in a relief role. His mentality is sound and even keeled. I'd love to have him back.