Jorge Polanco's Return Sparks Twins' Playoff Hopes

[Cody Schoenmann]

As we reach the home stretch of the 2023 MLB regular season, the Twins are in a two-team race for the AL Central division title with the Cleveland Guardians. Luckily, one of their best veteran players is coming into form at the right time. Is this veteran player's resurgence symbolic of things to come for the playoff-hopeful Twins?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker - USA TODAY Sports

Coined "The Twins' Mr. Clutch" in an article by the Pioneer Press's Betsy Helfand in 2021, infielder Jorge Polanco has long been a fixture in modern Minnesota Twins lore. 

Whether it be hitting for the cycle at Citizens Bank Park in 2019, skipping a throw to then-Twins second-baseman Luis Arráez during the 2020 postseason, or simply existing as a reliable day-to-day player, Polanco has been a part of every recent Twins moment in perpetuity. 

The 2023 season began without Polanco on the diamond as he was forced to miss the Twins' first 19 games while recovering from right knee soreness. 

Luckily, Polanco returned on April 21 and played 23 games with the Twins, hitting .284/.327/.484 (.811) with 27 hits, seven doubles, four home runs, and a 122 wRC+ in 101 plate appearances. 

Unfortunately, Polanco was forced to return to the 10-day IL with a strained hamstring on May 18. Polanco returned from the IL on June 1, and played in seven games while hitting just .120/.154/.320 (.474) with a 20 wRC+ and was instantly put back on the 10-day IL on June 8 with the same injury. 

Polanco appeared to be suffering from a chronic hamstring injury, and many began to wonder if Polanco's tenure with the Twins was nearing a disparagingly anti-climactic injury-fueled conclusion. 

Polanco took over a month and a half off and returned to the Twins, this time with a new position after transitioning from second base to third base to open up more playing opportunities at second base for the thriving rookie Edouard Julien.

Here are Polanco's numbers since returning from the 10-day IL on July 28, split into two time duration brackets:

• July 28-August 10: .182/.321/.318 (.639), 53 plate appearances (PA), eight hits, three doubles, one home run, 28.3% K%, .136 Isolated Power (ISO), .250 BABIP, 85 wRC+
• August 11-September 3: .310/.420/.549 (.969), 88 PA, 22 hits, two doubles, five home runs, 23.9% K%, .239 ISO, .362 BABIP, 166 wRC+

Polanco started slow out the gate following his return from the 10-day IL on July 28 but quickly turned things around beginning August 11, hitting for a .969 OPS and 166 wRC+ over the next 22 days, including a massive three-run home run against the second-place Cleveland Guardians last Monday. 

Polanco followed up his massive three-run home run last Monday against the Guardians with a clutch lead-padding two-run home run against the Texas Rangers this past Friday.

Polanco appears to have gotten his groove back, and it is happening at the most opportune time, as the mood surrounding a first-place team with a five-game lead couldn't be much worse.

On Thursday, the second-place Cleveland Guardians claimed Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, and Lucas Giolito off of waivers from the Los Angeles Angels, leading to panic about whether the Twins will be able to maintain their lead over the Guardians and win the AL Central.

While much of what happens with the Guardians going forward will be out of the Twins' hands, as they face them only three more times this season, what the Twins can do is make sure they perform well the rest of the season against teams that currently own losing records such as the Mets, White Sox, Angels, Athletics, and the Rockies. 

If the Twins want to make the playoffs, they must win at least four out of five of the upcoming series against the previously mentioned teams, if not all. 

While more remarkable collapses have happened, the Twins still own a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, and reinforcements are coming. 

Adding a healthy Alex Kirilloff, 100.1 mph throwing relief pitcher Louie Varland, and a potentially healthy Brock Stewart, Chris Paddack, and Jorge Alcala to an offense that ranks fifth in fWAR since the All-Star break and includes steady veterans  inspiring young players should create a great sense of optimism. 

Unfortunately, that is not the case.

Those who follow the Twins are panicking, and reasonably so. Admittedly, so am I. As Minnesota sports fans, we are all too familiar with the phenomenon of having the rug pulled out from underneath us. 

It is sad, and the emotional recovery is tedious and painstaking, yet we stick around clutching to a fleeting glimmer of hope, wishing this time will be different.

I am not here to virtue signal or tell anyone their sense of doom is wrong, but what I will say is that while, according to FanGraphs, there is a 96.7% chance our hearts will get broken in the postseason, there is only a 5.5% chance that our hearts will get broken come to the end of the regular season.

I will take those odds. 

Polanco's resurgence is not only fantastic for the Twins and himself, but it is also symbolic of what appears to be happening to the Twins as a whole. 

It feels like the amalgamation of pieces that form the Twins are collectively coming together at the most opportune time to create a whole that finally breaks the dreaded 0-18 playoff curse, and just because the Guardians claimed two above-average relievers in Moore and López and a solid starter in Giolito shouldn't deter fans from thinking as such.

What do you make of Polanco's resurgence in August? Also, should fans still be optimistic about the Twins' playoff chances? Comment below. 

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[tony&rodney]

The Twins definitely need Polanco and Kepler to lead the team throughout September (and October).

[Karbo]

I keep reading posts that want to trade Polo. I think that would be a huge mistake. When healthy he's one of the best hitters on the team and has been for several years now. IMO he's a keeper. Julian should be moved to either 1st or OF.

[mikelink45]

They really need Lewis to lead the way and perhaps make a couple of changes by removing dead weight from the Bench/batting order.  We can set a season strikeout record, but we don't need to do that in the playoffs too.

Polanco has really stepped up to lead, hopefully Correa will too, Julien will keep hitting as will Kepler and Kiriloff will come in and provide a spark.  Overall I like the lineup (two exceptions) and the rotation. 

But the RP that you list have to come in to solidify our true weakness.  

[Patzky]

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I keep reading posts that want to trade Polo. I think that would be a huge mistake. When healthy he's one of the best hitters on the team and has been for several years now. IMO he's a keeper. Julian should be moved to either 1st or OF.

The Polanco Solano show needs to be a part of the leadoff order in 2024. No question they can set the table and sometimes clear it. Health issues are always a specter but a batting order in 24 of..

 

1b Solano/Kirilloff

2b Polanco/Julien

3b Lewis/Polanco

LF Wallner

SS Correa

DH Julien/Kirilloff/Buxton/Solano

CF Martin/Buxton/Taylor

RF Kepler/Martin

C Jeffers/Vazquez

is nothing to sneeze at.

 

I'd keep Willi Castro around and maybe even Jordan Luplow until Emmanuel Rodriguez or Brooks Lee is ready.

[Craig Arko]

I suspect the lack of optimism is in social media, not in the organization. 

[mnfireman]

Polanco started hitting about the time Julien stopped, including his 2-3 yesterday and a 4 hit game on August 16, Julien is  slashing .234/.333/.328 (.661 OPS) with 1HR & 26 K's in 22 games since August 8th.

As for the play-off push, despite their 4 straight wins after their waiver wire acquisitions, Cleveland has the same record over their last 10 games as the Twins, 6-4. Going back to the teams last 20 games, the Twins are 11-9 while Cleveland is 10-0. If you push that back to 30 games, the Twins are 17-13 while Cleveland is 13-17.

Despite the Twins continually tripping over their own feet and not being able to get out of their own way, with 25 games left and a 5 game lead, I like the Twins chances. If the Twins can go 13-12, very likely despite the team seemingly playing down to their competition, Cleveland would have to go 18-7 just to tie.

[wabene]

31 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Polanco started hitting about the time Julien stopped, including his 2-3 yesterday and a 4 hit game on August 16, Julien is  slashing .234/.333/.328 (.661 OPS) with 1HR & 26 K's in 22 games since August 8th.

As for the play-off push, despite their 4 straight wins after their waiver wire acquisitions, Cleveland has the same record over their last 10 games as the Twins, 6-4. Going back to the teams last 20 games, the Twins are 11-9 while Cleveland is 10-0. If you push that back to 30 games, the Twins are 17-13 while Cleveland is 13-17.

Despite the Twins continually tripping over their own feet and not being able to get out of their own way, with 25 games left and a 5 game lead, I like the Twins chances. If the Twins can go 13-12, very likely despite the team seemingly playing down to their competition, Cleveland would have to go 18-7 just to tie.

Agreed, but remember a tie is a win for Cleveland unless we sweep this series. 

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins definitely need Polanco and Kepler to lead the team throughout September (and October).

Line-up ...

Definitely  need the veterans  Polanco and kepler  to lead this team ...

Rookies Lewis,  Julien and wallner  need to keep it going also ...

Correa has shown flashes but not consistently  , let's hope he can help lead too ...

Kiriloff rehabbing in st Paul and seems to be close to being added back to 28 man roster ...

Solano and MAT  have provided  good production ...

Starting Pitching ...

Where would we be if we didn't have this year's rotation  , they have mostly kept us in every game , it's been a solid season for the startèrs  ...

Bullpen  ... 

Nothing to add , the bullpen hasn't been  consistent , just keep crossing our fingers they can come through and protect a lead  ...

We need it all and we need them all right now to get hungry  for a division  crown  and the playoff series ...

It's going to be a close and suspenseful race between Cleveland or Twins  to  win this division  ...

[Obie]

2, 4, 6, 8. Following this series with Cleveland, the Twins lead will be one of those numbers.

[dxpavelka]

And next year we'll move on from Polanco & Kepler and spend the next couple of years wondering why the replacements haven't adequately replaced them.  Feels all too familiar.

 

[Doctor Wu]

A healthy and productive Polanco would be a huge benefit for a Twins playoff run. As he's showing us in recent games, he can be a difference maker. 

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, Karbo said:

I keep reading posts that want to trade Polo. I think that would be a huge mistake. When healthy he's one of the best hitters on the team and has been for several years now. IMO he's a keeper. Julian should be moved to either 1st or OF.

I think most of us are fans of Polanco, but his health and durability going forward remain a big concern. 

[Linus]

In addition to his hitting the infield defense has been much improved since his return. He and Correa sync up well on double plays. There have been several difficult dps turned that bailed out our pitchers. Plays that Julien has no chance on.   I agree that his health is a concern but in terms of overall production on both sides of the ball he is our best second baseman and it ain’t even close. 

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco is a very important impact player for the the Twins, I've always been a big fan of his. Now I hope he'll stay 100% after being phyicially abused by the Twins, his rehabing & getting used to the MLB again. Keep him at 2B

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/4/2023 at 8:54 AM, Karbo said:

I keep reading posts that want to trade Polo. I think that would be a huge mistake. When healthy he's one of the best hitters on the team and has been for several years now. IMO he's a keeper. Julian should be moved to either 1st or OF.

Julien is not better than Kirilloff - maybe on a similar level? Less of a Defender at 1B or OF.

“……..when he’s healthy…….”. Polanco has played maybe 60 games this year to date. If we keep Polanco & Kepler there’s nowhere to play Julien other than DH. Wallner is the other corner OF at this point.

Nobody that’s rebuilding wants to pay Polanco nor Kepler unless the receiving team is on the brink of a World Series appearance………difficult to trade either guy for reasonable value back. For a combined $21M in ‘24 they are a really good combined value!

How we do/they do in October will drive whether we keep them in ‘24 or we go young.

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Julien is not better than Kirilloff - maybe on a similar level? Less of a Defender at 1B or OF.

“……..when he’s healthy…….”. Polanco has played maybe 60 games this year to date. If we keep Polanco & Kepler there’s nowhere to play Julien other than DH. Wallner is the other corner OF at this point.

Nobody that’s rebuilding wants to pay Polanco nor Kepler unless the receiving team is on the brink of a World Series appearance………difficult to trade either guy for reasonable value back. For a combined $21M in ‘24 they are a really good combined value!

How we do/they do in October will drive whether we keep them in ‘24 or we go young.

So if you move Julian to 1st and put AK in left, Wallner DH, and rotate between AK, Julian and Wallner at DH? IMO they all need to be in the lineup most days along with Polo.