An Improving Twins Offense Could Be the Key to a Less Damaging Bullpen

Over their past 16 games, the Twins have gone 9-7. In doing so, they've barely nudged their AL Central lead – from 4 ½ games on August 12th to 5 games on August 31st. 

They're not in a bad situation, but it could feel a lot safer. And one can easily argue that if not for the bullpen's lapses in August, it would feel a lot safer.

Five of the team's seven losses over the aforementioned span have seen a reliever tagged with the "L," reflecting how many games have pivoted from win (or tie) to loss on the bullpen's watch. 

We all have memories etched in our heads from recent weeks of key relief pitchers imploding on the mound, with disastrous results. From Dylan Floro's batting practice session to Griffin Jax's multiple meltdowns to Jhoan Duran's costly wild pitch this week, it's been a rough slog.

There's no question the bullpen has been lagging and running thin, causing the front office's complacency at the deadline to look even worse than it did at the time. But that's now water under the bridge. So is the missed waiver claims.

I'm not here to tell you that the bullpen hasn't been bad – only that they haven't been as bad as you might think. I'm also not here to tell you that September reinforcements are going to magically turn the bullpen around – only that it might matter less than you think.

Given how many Twins games took a turn for the worse with relief pitchers on the mound lately, you'd think their bullpen ranked near the bottom of the league for August in Win Probability Added (WPA). But they didn't; they ranked 12th-highest in the majors, or better than average. (Granted, still behind almost every true contender.)

By WPA, the bullpen had an overall neutral effect on the team's outcomes this past month. Again: that's not to say they've been good. They just haven't been flat-out sabotaging the team as some would like to believe.

The reason it SEEMS like the relievers have been blowing everything is a familiar story from the first half: slim margins being created by the offense leaving almost no margin for error.

Wednesday's game against Cleveland was a perfect example. Handed a two-run lead from Sonny Gray after seven, relievers gave up single runs in the eighth and ninth inning to tie the game, then things unraveled in the 10th. 

Should they have really ever been in the 10th, putting rookie Kody Funderburk in that unfortunate and ill-fated spot? They wouldn't have been, if not for the lineup going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position, with the top five hitters combining to go 2-for-18 in the game. 

This has fortunately been less frequent in the second half, with the offense emerging to make stretches like Tuesday and Wednesday – where they scored four runs in 19 innings – more the exception than the norm. The better news is that Minnesota's offense has a chance to become substantially better in the very near future.

I'm trying not to get myself hyped on the idea of both Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff – currently at Triple-A on rehab stints, with the potential to return as soon as next week – stepping in and immediately performing at their peak level. But ... is it that unthinkable that one or both could be somewhere close?

They're rested up after spending some time on the sidelines. They're feeling good enough that Buxton's playing center field and Kirilloff is playing back-to-backs out of the gate on rehab. When these two are healthy and on, you can make a pretty good case they are the two best hitters on the team, and it's not like we haven't seen glimpses (I'll be it unsustained glimpses) of this prowess from both at times in 2023.

Yeah, I'm intrigued by the idea of trying Chris Paddack as a reliever, or converting Louie Varland to the bullpen, or hoping Brock Stewart can come back healthy and at the same level. But those are all somewhat experimental long shots. Buxton and Kirilloff are proven commodities and cornerstone players. Their returns to the roster are likely far more imminent than the others.

And while getting them back might not directly improve the bullpen, it can definitely reduce the bullpen's negative impact by reducing its pressure to constantly perform. Even with the relievers wobbling, when the Twins score, they win – they went 10-3 in August when putting up five or more runs.

Reduced pressure on the bullpen also means reduced reliance on the high-leverage options at the back, which would potentially provide guys like Duran and Jax with some needed rest ahead of the postseason.

If you're hoping the bullpen can be saved from within, then you should keep an eye on the reinforcements making their way back from injury. Just maybe not the ones you're thinking of.