An Improving Twins Offense Could Be the Key to a Less Damaging Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

The Cleveland Guardians snagged both impact waiver relievers away from the Twins on Thursday, leaving Minnesota with no remaining external answers to its rapidly deteriorating bullpen corps.

Help might be on the way for that unit from within, via recovering or converting arms, but it's the offense's reinforcements that should make fans most confident in the Twins avoiding a bullpen-fueled disaster in September.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Over their past 16 games, the Twins have gone 9-7. In doing so, they've barely nudged their AL Central lead – from 4 ½ games on August 12th to 5 games on August 31st. 

They're not in a bad situation, but it could feel a lot safer. And one can easily argue that if not for the bullpen's lapses in August, it would feel a lot safer.

Five of the team's seven losses over the aforementioned span have seen a reliever tagged with the "L," reflecting how many games have pivoted from win (or tie) to loss on the bullpen's watch. 

We all have memories etched in our heads from recent weeks of key relief pitchers imploding on the mound, with disastrous results. From Dylan Floro's batting practice session to Griffin Jax's multiple meltdowns to Jhoan Duran's costly wild pitch this week, it's been a rough slog.

There's no question the bullpen has been lagging and running thin, causing the front office's complacency at the deadline to look even worse than it did at the time. But that's now water under the bridge. So is the missed waiver claims.

I'm not here to tell you that the bullpen hasn't been bad – only that they haven't been as bad as you might think. I'm also not here to tell you that September reinforcements are going to magically turn the bullpen around – only that it might matter less than you think.

Given how many Twins games took a turn for the worse with relief pitchers on the mound lately, you'd think their bullpen ranked near the bottom of the league for August in Win Probability Added (WPA). But they didn't; they ranked 12th-highest in the majors, or better than average. (Granted, still behind almost every true contender.)

By WPA, the bullpen had an overall neutral effect on the team's outcomes this past month. Again: that's not to say they've been good. They just haven't been flat-out sabotaging the team as some would like to believe.

The reason it SEEMS like the relievers have been blowing everything is a familiar story from the first half: slim margins being created by the offense leaving almost no margin for error.

Wednesday's game against Cleveland was a perfect example. Handed a two-run lead from Sonny Gray after seven, relievers gave up single runs in the eighth and ninth inning to tie the game, then things unraveled in the 10th. 

Should they have really ever been in the 10th, putting rookie Kody Funderburk in that unfortunate and ill-fated spot? They wouldn't have been, if not for the lineup going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position, with the top five hitters combining to go 2-for-18 in the game. 

This has fortunately been less frequent in the second half, with the offense emerging to make stretches like Tuesday and Wednesday – where they scored four runs in 19 innings – more the exception than the norm. The better news is that Minnesota's offense has a chance to become substantially better in the very near future.

I'm trying not to get myself hyped on the idea of both Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff – currently at Triple-A on rehab stints, with the potential to return as soon as next week – stepping in and immediately performing at their peak level. But ... is it that unthinkable that one or both could be somewhere close?

They're rested up after spending some time on the sidelines. They're feeling good enough that Buxton's playing center field and Kirilloff is playing back-to-backs out of the gate on rehab. When these two are healthy and on, you can make a pretty good case they are the two best hitters on the team, and it's not like we haven't seen glimpses (I'll be it unsustained glimpses) of this prowess from both at times in 2023.

Yeah, I'm intrigued by the idea of trying Chris Paddack as a reliever, or converting Louie Varland to the bullpen, or hoping Brock Stewart can come back healthy and at the same level. But those are all somewhat experimental long shots. Buxton and Kirilloff are proven commodities and cornerstone players. Their returns to the roster are likely far more imminent than the others.

And while getting them back might not directly improve the bullpen, it can definitely reduce the bullpen's negative impact by reducing its pressure to constantly perform. Even with the relievers wobbling, when the Twins score, they win – they went 10-3 in August when putting up five or more runs.

Reduced pressure on the bullpen also means reduced reliance on the high-leverage options at the back, which would potentially provide guys like Duran and Jax with some needed rest ahead of the postseason.

If you're hoping the bullpen can be saved from within, then you should keep an eye on the reinforcements making their way back from injury. Just maybe not the ones you're thinking of.

View full article

[Patzky]

There have been very few 'laughers' but to channel Tito Francona plenty of 'cryers'. 

[HokieRif]

[mikelink45]

Nothing to make us feel better.  Of course if we scored in double digits every game the RP would have less pressure - is this a real expectations?

[Fatbat]

Our overall pitching is still well above average. The playoff roster will have starter quality guys in the bullpen so I’m not really worried about pitching. We seriously need to DFA Gallo and Luplow and upgrade those 2 roster spots. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Twins Bullpen Beer

[tony&rodney]

The offense has its turn now. The starting pitching has brought the team to September in a fair position. Now, it is time for C4 and the other bats to bear down, put the ball in play, and score 5 runs or more on a consistent basis. Buxton can get hot, Kirilloff took better swings tonight, and Kepler, Polanco, and the rookies can all be better.

[Karbo]

Quality starters trying to transition to relief could be a big help, but only if Rocco (and the FO) can depend on them and use them in high leverage situations. If Buxton can hit and play OF and AK stay healthy for the stretch run scoring runs should come a lot easier. This race to the finish isn't done yet, though so many feel it is.

[insagt1]

Bullpen has been awful recently. No sugar coating. They haven't done the job collectively. Meanwhile, Twins hitters continue to flail away and strike out in huge numbers. We can argue and debate till all the cows come home about k's vs GIDP's. But there is no hiding the fact that when runners are in scoring position, a k simply kills the opportunity and when Twins have more than 10 of those every game it seems, you get why they dropped 2 games against their closest rival this week.

Are they all still swinging for the fences, when a base hit would do? Why isn't the majorly slumping Jeffers trying to lay one down with runners on instead of swinging wildly at pitches way out of the zone? When is Gallo going to take a seat permanently. The only reason his stats look somewhat reasonable is what he did in the spring. Since then he has accomplished nothing (which is why sometimes the 'stats' don't tell the true story)

Are Buck and AK the key to our September offense? Buck has struggled all season when healthy (sort of) AK's career so far has been plagued with injuries. Can he recover from this one in time to have an impact? While Kepler and Polo have shown improvement, Correa has not. Can a team that yo-yo's between 2 and 6 over .500 get to the finish line in 1st?

Guess we'll be seeing soon enough.

[Fatbat]

@insagt1 if Duran doesn’t throw the ball in the dirt. Thats a K and the game was over. That was the biggest worst pitch of the season. 

[HokieRif]

45 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@insagt1 if Duran doesn’t throw the ball in the dirt. Thats a K and the game was over. That was the biggest worst pitch of the season. 

which is actually the bigger concern of mine.  He's been (based on the eye test) on a downward trajectory.  If he's going to crumble under pressure for a late august game against the team chasing us, i'm scared to think of what's going to happen in in the 9th at any point in the playoffs.

[joefish]

"SEEMS LIKE" is good enough for me. 

[Riverbrian]

It's nice that the offense has been carrying their fair share of the water lately.

Hopefully they can come back down the hill without Jill tumbling after. 

The Bullpen has the potential to be better and the potential to be worse. Bullpens have always been volatile. We should be able to shore it up a little with excess starting pitching. 

Collect as many W's as you can in September and to do that it will take a village. Starters, Pen, Offense, Defense... all of them will be needed. 

Come playoffs forget the starter/pen structure. Keep the ball in the hands who will hang zeroes.

Dig in... compete... rest in the off season. 

[insagt1]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

@insagt1 if Duran doesn’t throw the ball in the dirt. Thats a K and the game was over. That was the biggest worst pitch of the season. 

I completely agree. That just can't happen in such an important spot. Good closers know that and don't try to get that 'cute' with a runner at 3rd.

[PatPfund]

This is obviously post-OP, but after a solid 7 innings at the plate and in the field by Byron on Wednesday, and then a day off, he had to be pulled from Friday's game after two strike-out DH at bats with a sore knee. Hopefully I'm wrong, but everything I've seen since the first half of last season (including being shut down early and still not ready at the start of spring training, and frankly the Twins trying to keep him out of the OF) points to a chronic knee injury that may never let him play ball again. Or let him be anything like the Buxton we once knew. I'm now counting on nothing from him the rest of the year.

Kirilloff and a dose of Castro Chaos would be welcome additions back. So would moving Correa down to 6th in the order until he starts hitting again. His penchant for hitting DPs absolutely snuffs good work being done at the top of the order.