One Month into the Jorge López for Dylan Floro Trade

[Cody Schoenmann]

One month in, this reliever swap has not worked well for either team. Yet, there is still reason for optimism.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker - USA TODAY Sports

On July 28, the Minnesota Twins traded relief pitcher Jorge López to the Miami Marlins for fellow relief pitcher Dylan Floro. This week, we passed the one-month anniversary of said trade.

Unlike the win-win Luis Arráez for Pablo López, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio trade executed between Kim Ng and Derek Falvey this prior off-season, this trade deadline swap has been anything but. 

Here are Floro and López's numbers through the first month with their respective new teams:

• López - Marlins - 9.26 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 5.63 xFIP, 11 2/3 IP, 20 hits given up, 12 earned runs, nine walks, eight strikeouts, 6.17 K/9, .442 BABIP, 58% LOB%
• Floro - Twins - 6.30 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, 10 IP, 15 hits given up, seven earned runs, five walks, eight strikeouts, 9.00 K/9, .455 BABIP, 66.7 LOB%

López's first five batters faced with the Marlins went well, giving up zero runs and zero hits through 1.2 innings pitched, but then the wheels began to fall off. Over Lopez's next 19 batters faced, he gave up eight hits and accumulated three earned runs while only striking out one batter and leaving just 55.6% on base. 

Floro's first handful of outings with the Twins went much more smoothly, giving up just three hits and zero earned runs over his first 14 batters faced. Floro's first rough outing came against the Detroit Tigers on August 10 against the Tigers, giving up four hits and two earned runs while facing seven batters over just one inning pitched. 

López and Floro rebounded nicely from their rough outings, with López going two straight outings without giving up a run and Floro going three straight outings without giving up a run. 

Then came the implosions. 

The bulk of López and Floro's inflated numbers are consequences of implosive outings, which occurred at similar times. 

López's implosion came on August 16 against the Houston Astros when he faced six batters, gave up two hits, walked three, and surrendered four earned runs. He recorded just one out.

López became erratic and struggled to keep his pitches in the strike zone, a phenomenon all too familiar to those who follow the Twins. While López's shortcomings are unfortunate, he is no longer the Twins' problem, so it feels unnecessary to harp on his performance too much. 

So, let's shift our focus to Floro. 

Floro's implosive outing came on August 22 against the Milwaukee Brewers when he faced nine batters, gave up six hits, walked zero, and surrendered five earned runs in one inning. 

Floro is an interesting case, as he is a better pitcher than statistics like ERA would suggest. 

Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, is a sabermetric that measures what a pitcher's Earned Runs Allowed (ERA) would look like over a certain period if that pitcher were to experience league-average results on balls put in play. Unsurprisingly, FIP strongly correlates to the sabermetric Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP. 

Floro's FIP currently sits at 3.07, which is 3.23 points lower than his ERA of 6.30. 

Floro is a reliever who pitches to contact, so most of the outs he generates will come from either ground outs or flyouts. Being a "pitch to contact" reliever, Floro's primary goal is to generate weak contact, which leads to shallow flyouts or weak groundouts.

Floro has done an adequate job doing that, as evidenced by his Exit Velocity (EV), or the speed of the ball coming off the bat in miles per hour, of 83.9 mph. Unfortunately, balls put into play off of Floro are finding holes and landing for hits, as evidenced by his BABIP of .455, 160 points higher than the league average of .295 for relief pitchers.

Now, the question that needs to be looked at next is whether Floro's poor numbers are a product of bad luck or Floro simply being ineffective. 

To start, the answer for Floro's implosive outing against the Brewers is bad luck, as they were able to essentially BABIP Floro into submission by hitting bloop single after bloop single, leading to an outburst of hits and runs. 

Although Floro's performance against the Brewers was uniquely unfortunate, I think similar conclusions of him being a victim of bad luck can also be made for his other outings. 

This conclusion feels rational because the same phenomenon occurred earlier this season with the Marlins. 

Over Floro's 39 2/3 innings pitched and 171 total batters faced as a reliever for the Marlins this season, Floro's had a 4.54 ERA and a 2.77 FIP. Similar to his performance with the Twins, there is a dramatic difference between Floro's ERA and FIP. 

Floro is struggling now and has all season, but reason for optimism lies within his underlying metrics and his most recent outing against the Texas Rangers this past Sunday. 

In his outing against the Rangers, Floro walked leadoff hitter Mitch Garver but was then able to get Travis Jankowski to strikeout on a high and outside fastball, Adolis Garcia to strikeout on a breaking ball down and away, and Jonah Heim to groundout to shortstop Carlos Correa, ending the top of the 13th inning. 

The Twins were then able to capitalize, winning on a walk-off walk manufactured by centerfielder Michael A. Taylor. 

Although a small sample, Floro's outing was encouraging and could be a sign of things to come.

Floro becoming even a semi-reliable relief pitcher that can complement the front of the bullpen in Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, and the potentially returning soon Brock Stewart would be an encouraging development for a team that has had back-end of the bullpen struggles all season. 

One month in, the López for Floro trade hasn't worked well for either team. But there is reason to believe Floro's performance could turn around rather quickly.

What do you think of the López for Floro trade? Do you think Floro can turn things around? Comment below. 

 

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[Kenny Powers]

[CRF]

Can I choose not to want either one?

[Patzky]

So we traded unexpectedly volatile for predictably volatile..

[PatPfund]

The trade is fine as addition by subtraction. The Twins close the book on a trade that didn’t work, got an arm, and have a lower pain threshold if they need to release that arm. Which would have happened if we’d gotten waiver RPs. And like likely still will if a lot of arms return soon from IL  (3-4 pending).

[Hubie29]

Both are throw away pitchers. However I remember when Lopez was lights out for Baltimore a couple years ago. Don't know what happened to him. 

[Road trip]

57 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Both are throw away pitchers. However I remember when Lopez was lights out for Baltimore a couple years ago. Don't know what happened to him. 

Indeed.  The same could be said for Floro back in the day.  He had a nice stretch with the Dodgers on their World Series runs a few years ago, getting meaningful innings on teams that had a wealth of quality pitching options.

Time moves on.  Could be the problem is a mental block (likely for Lopez, given his family tragedy), or that the arm is simply cooked (possibly Floro's story).  It's unlikely that either will ever be a high-leverage reliever again, and even "back of the bullpen" may be too much to expect. I suspect both players will get a chance to be on someone's roster next spring though.  

[Cody Schoenmann]

35 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Indeed.  The same could be said for Floro back in the day.  He had a nice stretch with the Dodgers on their World Series runs a few years ago, getting meaningful innings on teams that had a wealth of quality pitching options.

Time moves on.  Could be the problem is a mental block (likely for Lopez, given his family tragedy), or that the arm is simply cooked (possibly Floro's story).  It's unlikely that either will ever be a high-leverage reliever again, and even "back of the bullpen" may be too much to expect. I suspect both players will get a chance to be on someone's roster next spring though.  

My best guess with López is that he is non-tendered and then accepts a minor league offer with an invitation to spring training from a non-contending team like the Royals or Pirates. When it comes to Floro, I think there is a chance he gets a Major League offer, potentially even from the Twins, depending on how well he pitches down the stretch. If he continues to pitch poorly, I could see him signing a minor league deal as well. 

[Muppet]

So he has only given up runs in 2 of 11 outings for the Twins. Not bad. He could be the closer. 

[Shaitan]

What is Floro's contract status? If he's arb eligible he's gone at the end of the year anyway, so a bounceback doesn't help the Twins any.

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

What is Floro's contract status? If he's arb eligible he's gone at the end of the year anyway, so a bounceback doesn't help the Twins any.

Floro is a UFA after this season. 

[rickyriolo]

DFA Floro .We need to add someone else to his 40 man spot

[DocBauer]

Floro has had a career of mostly solid to good. His peripherals say he's been unlucky this season. Since these things tend to end even out, he's due for some better, or more consistent results. And the numbers listed in the OP are clearly better than those of Lopez. So it's at least some addition by subtraction. So I'd pick Floro, if forced to, as a "win" between the two.

Of course, he could also just be cooked.

[tony&rodney]

Floro needs luck, that is for sure. The trade allowed Jorge Lopez a chance to be close to family. He has had some stress. Pitchers live on a fine line. If they lose their edge (command and control), they often lose their jobs. Tough business. Both J. Lopez and Floro are still working hard but struggling to get the results. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Muppet said:

So he has only given up runs in 2 of 11 outings for the Twins. Not bad. He could be the closer. 

This is an interesting metric.  For the year:
Floro - given up runs in 13 of his 53 outings
Duran - 17 times in 50 outings
Jax - 15 times in 59 outings
Pagan - 14 times in 56 outings

Obviously this is a cursory stat.  Leverage situations matter.  Not to mention that Duran typically gives up runs 1 at a time.  Floro gives them up typically in bunches.  But perception is also part of this discussion...

[Muppet]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is an interesting metric.  For the year:
Floro - given up runs in 13 of his 53 outings
Duran - 17 times in 50 outings
Jax - 15 times in 59 outings
Pagan - 14 times in 56 outings

Obviously this is a cursory stat.  Leverage situations matter.  Not to mention that Duran typically gives up runs 1 at a time.  Floro gives them up typically in bunches.  But perception is also part of this discussion...

Interesting indeed. I would conclude (falsely in floro’s case) that giving up multiple runs in an inning would be indicative of a mop up position. It would seem that in a high leverage position one run would be often as bad as several runs as it would often be the run that ends in a blown save. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Seems like a wash to me.  Gave up a struggling pitcher, got a struggling pitcher.  Neither are useless, but neither are going to help their clubs much.  It was worth a try, but not much came of it.  Going forward I have a small amount more hope for Floro, but I could definitely be wrong. . . .

[Shaitan]

4 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Floro is a UFA after this season. 

So Floro is essentially Logan Forsythe as a Twin.

I hope he can be a fair 6th inning pitcher for the next month, then he's just Twins trivia...

I can't imagine he'll make a post-season roster if they make it there.

[Cody Schoenmann]

39 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

So Floro is essentially Logan Forsythe as a Twin.

I hope he can be a fair 6th inning pitcher for the next month, then he's just Twins trivia...

I can't imagine he'll make a post-season roster if they make it there.

Comparing Floro to Forsythe is a great comparison lol. The only difference is that the Twins are in contention this year unlike 2018. 

[Karbo]

14 hours ago, Road trip said:

Indeed.  The same could be said for Floro back in the day.  He had a nice stretch with the Dodgers on their World Series runs a few years ago, getting meaningful innings on teams that had a wealth of quality pitching options.

Time moves on.  Could be the problem is a mental block (likely for Lopez, given his family tragedy), or that the arm is simply cooked (possibly Floro's story).  It's unlikely that either will ever be a high-leverage reliever again, and even "back of the bullpen" may be too much to expect. I suspect both players will get a chance to be on someone's roster next spring though.  

I think a pitch to contact type was probably getting a lot of benefit from the shift.

[Doctor Wu]

I still don't know what to make of Floro, and not even sure if we would want him in the bullpen come playoff time (if in fact we have some healthy arms to replace him), but I'm totally puzzled how Lopez could do even worse in Miami, I really thought he would flourish with that team, but sadly it hasn't happened. 

[insagt1]

looking at that list of Twins relievers (at the moment) its hard to believe Pagan has been the most effective. The others have really pitched poorly (forget the stats) when it matters. Jax gives up runs at the worst time. Duran the same. When put in stress spots giving up just one run makes the difference. Floro probably won't be with the team after this season. Has he done OK? Sometimes.

Right now, Twins need their pen to start shutting down the opponents, not blowing leads late on  a nightly basis. Floro probably isn't the answer to the bullpen's woes. But, this is crunch time so a nice run of games now, when it counts most, could change the narrative.

[gman]

Twins could simply have released Lopez. They could simply release Floro now. My assumption is they don't think they have someone better than Floro waiting in the wings. They got something for Lopez which is better than nothing, maybe not the super reliever anyone wanted but you weren't ever going to get that for Lopez anyway. I would take any of Stuart, Paddock, Alcala or Varland over Floro when the time comes. They have a month to try to get the bullpen in as decent a shape as possible and good luck with that.

[Jocko87]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/orioles-claim-jorge-lopez-from-marlins.html

Wow, Baltimore is going to fix him aren't they? 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/orioles-claim-jorge-lopez-from-marlins.html

Wow, Baltimore is going to fix him aren't they? 

Well, Baltimore seems to find ways to utilize and revitalize their pitchers pretty darn well, Of course, we've all seen how good Cano has been this year, but they also picked up Shintaro Fujinami from Oakland before the trade deadline. Looked like an odd deal; Fujinami had been rocked in the Oakland pen and had an ERA of about 10.00 at one point. Yes, that bad. But the Orioles saw something in him and Fujinami has turned into a good bullpen piece, sometimes pitching more than an inning. His ERA is now down to about 7.50 on the season, but all of a sudden he looks like a key piece in their pen. Hey, maybe they can work some magic with Lopez again. At least he'll be familiar with the organization.