Expect a Boring Trade Deadline for the Minnesota Twins

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

We have to get this back on track.

As for last off season from my memory they were using at least one 40 man spot to sign and DFA guys like Dennis Santana. Did that help? They could have waited about a week and signed Solano when the 60 was available or maybe Steer hits his way into Solano’s spot. That is at least two. Of course they don’t have Mahle that might be three but they probably add a different starter. Maybe it would have been so tight that they don’t sign Gallo. Darn.

As for next year and my hope for this year’s boring deadline I would be willing to sell Prato or Williams or Stevenson or Helman. It will be tough to find a space for them this winter. I also don’t think they lose any to rule 5 though Stevenson would be a free agent. Prato isn’t really a sell high. Including his AA his OPS is at his career average and below .800. Williams isn’t a catcher and would really need to hit to have a major league job. Stevenson has played 5 different seasons in the majors. Helman is already 27. If they want to sell any of those players for a rental reliever I am in. That would be a boring deal.

I don't think the problem with the 40 man is finding space next winter.  Some cuts are going to be necessary very soon unless other injuries open spots for the guys coming back.   Of course, that happens.

Next winter we have ....

Sonny Gray / Kenta Maeda / Tyler Mahle / Emilio Pagán / Donovan Solano / Joey Gallo / and Michael A. Taylor coming off.  Plus, José De León / Ronny Henriquez and Gilberto Celestino are candidates to be taken off the 40 man.  That's 10 spots Kepler's option might not be picked up or he is traded.  Polanco is a trade candidate as well.  I guess we could add Gordon and farmer as trade candidates as well.
 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't think the problem with the 40 man is finding space next winter.  Some cuts are going to be necessary very soon unless other injuries open spots for the guys coming back.   Of course, that happens.

Next winter we have ....

Sonny Gray / Kenta Maeda / Tyler Mahle / Emilio Pagán / Donovan Solano / Joey Gallo / and Michael A. Taylor coming off.  Plus, 
José De León / Ronny Henriquez and Gilberto Celestino are candidates to be taken off the 40 man.  That's 10 spots Kepler's option might not be picked up or he is traded.  Polanco is a trade candidate as well.  I guess we could add Gordon and farmer as trade candidates as well.
 

Ya, I'm not worried about next winter......not even a little. 

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, I'd trade any hitter in AAA right now.....they mostly seem hurt (Miranda / Austin) or AAAA quality (and, as you point out, not young). They don't appear to be willing to give Prato a shot this year, even with LF and 3B basically a black hole right now, so I'm not sure why you don't try to get something for these guys. So, yes, we agree on that for sure.

Plus, that opens space in AAA for Lee, Severino, and Kiersey (who isnt getting any younger).

If they don't find any RH bats they like at the deadline, and so far I haven't seen much to like, hopefully they turn to Prato or Chris Williams. Though looking at splits against left handing pitching, Prato would be the clear choice of the two.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If they don't find any RH bats they like at the deadline, and so far I haven't seen much to like, hopefully they turn to Prato or Chris Williams. Though looking at splits against left handing pitching, Prato would be the clear choice of the two.

Plus he plays third and LF....no idea why a team that wants to make the playoffs decided not to at least try him at 3B when Lewis went down......and play Castro and Farmer (neither of whom is hitting a lick). Sure, they might have a 40 man crunch, but are you trying to win, or trying to preserve the future (like it matters if they lose a fringe 40 man guy)?

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Plus he plays third and LF....no idea why a team that wants to make the playoffs decided not to at least try him at 3B when Lewis went down......and play Castro and Farmer (neither of whom is hitting a lick). Sure, they might have a 40 man crunch, but are you trying to win, or trying to preserve the future (like it matters if they lose a fringe 40 man guy)?

I have been on the Prato bus.  He seems like a great fit and he is hot right now.  Could he fall flat on his face if promoted?  Of course, he might not be able to make the leap but right now seems like a good time to try something.  I just don't see any great RH outfield options.  I am actually liking CJ Cron with AK going the OF.  Cron has been playing really well of late.  He could also be an option to resign.

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Plus he plays third and LF....no idea why a team that wants to make the playoffs decided not to at least try him at 3B when Lewis went down......and play Castro and Farmer (neither of whom is hitting a lick). Sure, they might have a 40 man crunch, but are you trying to win, or trying to preserve the future (like it matters if they lose a fringe 40 man guy)?

I'd be more than happy to take a scissors to the 40-man to make my cuts should the front office find it too hard to stomach.

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I have been on the Prato bus.  He seems like a great fit and he is hot right now.  Could he fall flat on his face if promoted?  Of course, he might not be able to make the leap but right now seems like a good time to try something.  I just don't see any great RH outfield options.  I am actually liking CJ Cron with AK going the OF.  Cron has been playing really well of late.  He could also be an option to resign.

i fully acknowledge he might not be good, but we know what Farmer and Castro are, and that's very good backups / utility guys, not every day 3B. 

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I have been on the Prato bus.  He seems like a great fit and he is hot right now.  Could he fall flat on his face if promoted?  Of course, he might not be able to make the leap but right now seems like a good time to try something.  I just don't see any great RH outfield options.  I am actually liking CJ Cron with AK going the OF.  Cron has been playing really well of late.  He could also be an option to resign.

Yeah, I don't know why they don't try. Seven of the nine pre-arb batters the Twins have used this year have an OPS over .800. Miranda has unexpectedly been the one to struggle and Larnach is merely at .715. Except for Jeffers, they've all been shuttled back and forth from St. Paul regularly, so it's not like the promotions and demotions are doing any kind of psychological damage. I don't understand why going back to that well until it dries up isn't their first choice.. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I don't know why they don't try. Seven of the nine pre-arb batters the Twins have used this year have an OPS over .800. Miranda has unexpectedly been the one to struggle and Larnach is merely at .715. Except for Jeffers, they've all been shuttled back and forth from St. Paul regularly, so it's not like the promotions and demotions are doing any kind of psychological damage. I don't understand why going back to that well until it dries up isn't their first choice.. 

We all know the young guys have done well but illustrating as you have here really drives the point home.  The less experienced guys have carried the load while the veterans have mostly underperformed.  I am a big supporter because there is absolutely no doubt that sustained success for teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue is driven by developing talent.  

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We all know the young guys have done well but illustrating as you have here really drives the point home.  The less experienced guys have carried the load while the veterans have mostly underperformed.  I am a big supporter because there is absolutely no doubt that sustained success for teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue is driven by developing talent.  

It’s how they, and most clubs build sustainable winning teams since this game began. Even the top 1/3 teams.

I think the actual production gap between average vets, and unproven young players is almost entirely a mental construct built on fear of the unknown.

[DocBauer]

Trying to address the OP as much as possible, but having to make a couple additional comments just because:

1] Just CRAZY to look at the Gray trade, in retrospect, as being bad UNLESS he or the Twins win SOMETHING in the playoffs is just silly, and not an honest perspective. The same with the trades for Lopez and Mahle last year as well. Gray was good last year, and has been good this year. I don't think anyone expected J Lopez to maintain what he did the first half of 2022, but even with regression, he was talented and controllable. He was a 2 1/2yr controllable end of the pen addition that could make a difference. Who saw him just falling apart? Mahle was a solid SP with better results outside of Cincinnati and was under 30. And he looked good again to begin this year. Who predicted TJ surgery? Did these moves blow up? Absolutely.  But these moves were made by a team having a good season and looking playoff bound. And AFTER the trades, the season collapsed, mostly due to injury.

If you actually KNEW this was going to happen, please share your next Power Ball numbers because I want to play.

BACK TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED OP:

2] The more I examine the move of J Lopez for Dylan Floro, the more I like it. I honestly hope the best for Lopez, his family, and his career. But the Twins moved an unusable arm...with potential still...for an experienced arm with a really solid, and experienced history of being a very solid 7-8th inning reliever. His ERA is higher than his career numbers, but so is his BABIP. Every other stat you look at says he's still the same solid, dependable arm he's been. And as I stated elsewhere, he might not be the reliever the Twins need the most, he's a reliever they need. Good, smart move that cost nothing off the roster, that didn't need to move on.

3] If I had a working crystal ball that said Thielbar and Stewart are going to be just fine, I think an arguement COULD be made that the pen is OK. Especially after adding the solid Floro. But I'm just going to play the "hope" game. Despite still "finding" himself, I really like the young Moran. He's just SO GOOD when the control is at least somewhat there. Long term, I think Funderburk has a chance to be good. And despite some inconsistency, I've seen enough of Headrick to think he's got a shot to be a really good pen arm. And forget St Paul, I'd have had him up the last month to see if he could to develop a vital role for this year and next. I think the FO blew an opportunity there, even though I like his future.

Bullpen wise, I'd be looking for a LH arm right now to protect myself in case Thielbar has any further issues. And I remain surprised he is back this soon. I would have babied him another week or so for the long term. I'd look at a LH arm to compliment Thielbar and Moran. And then I'd look at another RH arm that I could feel comfortable with along with Jax, Floro, and hopefully Stewart. It's just too late in the season to trust in prospects at this point.

I believe it is incorrect to state the Twins dislike rentals and prefer controllable arms. They have done that in the rotation, but Romo, Dyson, and Fulmer indicate that isn't a reality. They WILL do so if they think they get the right arm, but there is no definitive proof that is where they look.

I'm OK if the snag someone on a deal that makes sense that has control. But the nice thing about a rental is they generally cost little to get, and can be re-signed if they are a good fit. Think about Romo a couple years ago. 

4] I'm on record that I DON'T like trading one of our young LH OF because I DON'T feel they have had the opportunity to prove themselves. Gallo hasn't worked out. Period. Nice try FO, and I mean that sincerely! I love that Max has found some kind of magical difference since the AS break. And he's a perfectly solid ML player. But can he maintain? Is he actually part of 2024? Even as a fan, I have serious doubts. And the LAST THING I want the Twins to do is move Wallner. All he's done is rake at every single level and show, even in SSS, that he's got a potential ML bat. And let's not forget that Larnach's numbers aren't exactly BAD, and his development has been slowed by a couple of unfortunate injuries as well. But the Twins need a RH bat, OF, to help against LH pitching. I don't like moving an "asset" that is talented and stil projectible, but Larnach does seem to be the odd man out.

Any RH OF bat...obviously in my mind...means Gallo is either traded to a contending team borderline desperate for a veteran LH bat hoping for a good 2 months, or is DFA. Good luck. But it's beyond time. There is still the 26 man and 40 man to consider. But is there a rental that comes cheap, that might be a re-sign for a solid RH OF bat?  Or do the Twins dig deeper for a RH OF with control? Unfortunately, Larnach might be that guy. A LH for  RH to a team might make sense. Maybe a Windef type of arm to make the deal work. I

5] I keep thinking about past bullpen arms the Twins traded for that cost next to nothing, albeit  Lopez was different and just didn't turn out. And I keep thinking they can bring on another couple solid arms that they can potentially re-sign. But if they move a little more prospect wise, maybe ONE of their additions has control. And I'm OK with that too. 

Considering a lack of a solid, almost daily RH OF bat, I could see a sort of "swap" of LH vs RH OF bat for someone like Carlson or Thomas with an arm thrown in, OR, ....and I hate to say it...Miranda and his potential thrown in if said RH bat was young enough and still had upside.

The last thing I want is for the Twins to decimate the system to add when their biggest problem is veteran players not producing and young players already showing they are ready to contribute and improve! But 2 more smart additions to the pen and a RH bat SHOULD be available to add without doing so. 

Up to the FO to show what they can do. NOT asking for magic, just some SMART moves that make sense. 

[Peter]

With theilbar/steward/polanco and Lewis coming back this is same as getting players from trade at deadline-all 4 will be welcomed back and needed for last 2 months. Think larnish gets traded for bat/gallo will get released. But don’t give up future picks/prospects!!’ The next 10 years will be exciting winning baseball and not if but when another world championship comes back to Minnesota 

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This site would have ripped them to shreds for trading Miranda last year.....shreds. 

Cano was brutal here, agreed, no one thought he'd be like this. If other teams thought he'd be this good, MN could have traded him for a ton a good prospect at the deadline, not thrown him into a deal.

Good point, When the trade was made I'm sure most of us were more sad at the loss of Povich. Cano just seemed like a throw-in at the time. Ah, this crazy game of baseball!

[Doctor Wu]

The Lopez trade this week was a surprise, but I wouldn't expect much more activity from the Twins. Maybe another minor tweak or two, but certainly no major trades. But hey, go ahead and surprise me!

[Patzky]

22 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Not to mention, the big trades they made last year are almost universally disliked because they have aged poorly (despite being good moves at the time).

The big trade is always celebrated today but the big calculator always comes out next year.. and the math is seldom good. For once I agree that the biggest improvement for this team will/must come from within 

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but only because Polanco was hurt

But Polanco getting hurt is pretty much a guarantee so Julien was always pretty high on the depth chart. That's one reason they haven't moved him to a position where he won't get removed in the 8th inning for a defensive substitution. They needed him as the #2 second baseman on the depth chart because their #1 is old and fragile.

[saviking]

23 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

1) To anybody nervous about making moves this year because last year's moves did not work out the way you would have liked, there is a reason why you are posting here and not working for an MLB club.  Your trade currency is people, not robots or baseball cards.  You can't assume everything works or that you will win every move (unless you are Tampa Bay).

2) Buxton, Correa, Ober, Ryan, and Duran are probably the only untouchable names on the roster.  Everyone else could be had for the right price.  That doesn't mean those other players will be traded, but they would be in a discussions (the Twins would not turn down Gray and Kiriloff for Spencer Strider for example.)

3) Team culture plays a much larger role than is ever publicly discussed.  Moves made will impact the clubhouse and on field play.

4) I have said this elsewhere, do not downplay the return of Lewis, Polanco, Thielbar, and Stewart.  That is a huge shift in roster makeup.
 

Why not Buxton> Sentimental value?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Why not Buxton> Sentimental value?

Trading Buxton so quickly after the extension would mean they are giving up on him.  I do not believe the Twins are ready to do that yet.  Imagine the kickback on selling low on Buxton, only to have him healthy and killing it somewhere else...

Like it or not, Buxton will be a Twin for a long time

[saviking]

46 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Trading Buxton so quickly after the extension would mean they are giving up on him.  I do not believe the Twins are ready to do that yet.  Imagine the kickback on selling low on Buxton, only to have him healthy and killing it somewhere else...

Like it or not, Buxton will be a Twin for a long time

I hear ya. Dan

[joefish]

On 7/27/2023 at 6:18 AM, farmerguychris said:

Give me a right handed corner outfielder who can hit lefties and maybe another left handed pen pitcher.

 

Farmer and Kuechel?

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/27/2023 at 11:15 AM, tony&rodney said:

What does San Diego want for Hader? They have indicated that they are holding him, but there may be a package to pry him loose. What is reasonable?

So I don’t think S.D. is trading Hader nor Snell……they have 4th-5th best Staff ERA in NL. The guys (at least a couple) around Hader have to be decent. According to MLB network this afternoon, they need LH hitting.

Trade Polanco & Larnach for S.D.’s 2nd best reliever OR best reliever with at least a couple more years control. Realistically, we’re trading unproven potential with Larnach…….another guy who is a proven effective pro, who has only been able to play 30 games in ‘23 due to health. If either guy works out, it’s a win for San Diego & we get a decent relief arm in the near-term & going forward.

They get a couple bats immediate & losing one guy in the Pen shouldn’t derail any chances they have this year!

We open a roster spot by bringing the RP in and displacing a guy who is on the current staff.

That’s one deal - need a 2nd deal for another reliever & we’re good!!