Twins Number One Starter? Bailey Ober.

[Hans Birkeland]

While many of the Twins' vaunted rotation has taken steps backward, Bailey Ober has continued to get better. Is he the team's new number one starter?

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins rotation has been a pronounced strength all season despite an underperforming offense and injured bullpen dampening its results. Sonny Gray and Pablo López were both All-Stars, while Joe Ryan very well may have been if he hadn’t pitched the Sunday before the break. Kenta Maeda has pitched incredibly well in four of five starts since returning from the IL and carries a strong track record of effectiveness. But the Twins’ best starter at the moment didn’t even start the year on the active roster. I’m referring, of course, to John Bailey Ober.

That may seem like a hot take, but Ober has been truly impressive this year, posting a 156 ERA+ (meaning 56% above average) while throwing a quality start in 11 of his 16 turns in the rotation. For what it's worth, he is the only system-developed starter pitching for the Twins right now.

He also offers a unique skillset: At 6’9” his extension at release is in the 99th percentile among MLB starters, allowing his 91-92 MPH fastball to be a legitimate weapon when paired with an effective slider and changeup that he, most days, commands quite well. He walks very few hitters and has a 93rd percentile chase rate that results in a lot of weak contact. He also has the intestinal fortitude to rebound from rough innings, such as last week in Seattle (three runs in the first) or in May against the Giants (four runs in the first). In both outings he lasted at least five innings and didn't allow any further damage, saving the bullpen and keeping the deficit at a minimum. But when he's at his best, such as his start in Baltimore, he can be dominant:

But saying Ober is the best of the bunch right now isn’t all about his individual success; it’s also about the flaws of the other starters and how they have been amplified recently. Let's go through those individually.

Sonny Gray
Gray was great in April, but let's be honest, he hasn’t been great since. In broad terms, he is not only winless since that opening month, but he has had only three quality starts (out of 14). One of them, in Baltimore, happened when he exited the game after six innings, saying he was gassed (to date the only time Gray has ever agreed with a manager’s decision to remove him). That may have been a revelatory moment, as he wasn’t allowed to go back out and have his worst inning. In every start he makes, he cruises through about four of his innings, commanding his breaking pitches and confounding hitters with his vast repertoire.

Also in every start, he completely loses his command for a brief period. Sometimes he rebounds, like in his start at Target Field against the Orioles right before the break where he allowed six hits in the second inning, and none in any other inning. Sometimes he can’t get through a lineup a third time, like against Cleveland on June 3rd, where he looked dominant through six innings. In the seventh, however, he gave up his first homer of the year, and the lead, to light-hitting Will Brennan in a game the Twins eventually lost. His home run rate is elite, and that keeps his overall numbers solid (although his walk rate is an elevated 3.6 per nine innings), but it's hard to trust a pitcher who completely loses his ability to command the ball once per game.

It stems, I believe, from his refusal to give in to hitters, something Twins starters of the past didn't do enough of. During the past few decades, Twins’ starters would be so afraid to walk guys that they would seemingly rather give hitters a cookie down the middle than a free pass, which has hurt them in the playoffs and possibly in the development of pitchers like Jose Berrios.

Gray, by contrast, is so willing to walk guys rather than let them get a home run pitch, that he has given up four bases loaded walks already this year. It’s cool to see a guy paint the corners on a 3-2 pitch with men on base, but if you’re missing your spot by an inch or two, that can lead to lots of traffic, which we’ve seen over and over from Gray. I’m not sure if he is unable to get weak in-zone contact, or if he’s just too stubborn to pitch any other way. Either way, his winless streak is looking less and less like a mirage.

Pablo López
López has been average on the surface (in terms of ERA and wins), elite one level below the surface (strikeout to walk ratio, baseball savant page), and then pretty bad when it comes to combating the approaches opposing teams roll out against him. You can dink and dunk him into submission, and when he’s at that point, he can allow hard contact. Sometimes the dinks and dunks don’t fall for hits and he looks incredible, but when they do and he gets put into high stress situations, he tends to unleash his worst pitches of the day.

That was definitely the case in Oakland on July 15th when he coughed up a six run lead against a Triple-A caliber lineup. On June 24th against Detroit, he allowed three singles and a walk before a 0-2 mistake pitch to Zach McKinstry scored two on a sharp single that decided the game (it shouldn’t have, but it did). On June 1st against the Guardians, he cruised through five, saw the offense give him a 3-1 lead, and then promptly gave up six singles after a leadoff walk to blow the game. He’s good overall, and you have to love the strikeout rate, but if offenses like the Royals, Tigers and Guardians can get under his skin, that doesn't portend well for a playoff matchup.

Joe Ryan
Ryan has been legitimately good overall, but as the summer has heated up, so has his opponents’ home run rate. He has given up thirteen home runs in his last seven starts, and although we would all like to believe it was due to tipping pitches, making the change to wearing sleeves during his starts hasn’t helped much. Opponents are hitting .354 off of his sweeper/slider with four home runs, so it looks as though only one of his Driveline-sourced pitches has been worth the hype (his split-change has still been effective).

Unlike Gray and López, it seems as though working through trouble is a strength of Ryan’s, as he is the only one of the three to post an OBP under .300 with runners on (Gray at .342, Lopez at .324), which definitely passes the eye test. But he has yet to come up with a way to punish hitters who are looking to ambush him, particularly his fastball early in counts. He has a great strikeout to walk rate, amazing pitch values and a shutout against Boston, but his ERA since the end of May is 5.65 and opponents are slugging .493 against him in that time period. It's a thin slice, but he just hasn’t been that good since May outside of that shutout. Teams have adjusted to him and he needs to adjust back.

Meanwhile Ober simply has not had a bad start, and that has proven more and more valuable to a team that isn’t getting as many top-notch pitching performances as it did in April and May. It is fair to wonder if the team has an innings limit placed on Ober, as he has never pitched more than 109 innings in a season at either the college or professional level. Injuries have played a part in that, with nagging soft tissue injuries the main culprit, so it may be logical to find extra days of rest for him. Hopefully, the team isn’t considering a shutdown at a specific innings threshold, ala Stephen Strasburg in 2012.

If Ober pitches the rest of the year, he would be in line for about thirteen more starts. He is averaging nearly six innings per start, so even if you round that down to five and a half innings on average going forward, he is on pace for over 70 additional innings to the 112 he has already pitched between the majors and minors this year. It will be an interesting story to watch, as he offers the best combination of deception, command and ability to pitch through adversity of any of the Twins starting five. Perhaps a six man rotation featuring Dallas Keuchel could spread those innings out a bit.

Let's hope Ober is available in October, since he may give the team their best chance of winning game one of a playoff series.

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[Karbo]

Ryan just needs to work on his secondary pitches. Teams know he's around the zone and just wait on his fastball. It wouldn't hurt him to start some guys out with an off speed pitch, or throw one outside a few inches to start a guy out. Lopez needs to thro the change up more, as in past years was considered one of the best in the league. Gray needs to listen to his catchers more on pitch selection IMO.

[Beast]

It’s indisputable that he’s the most consistent.  You’ll never see the 8 inning shutout with 12 Ks like you’ll get with Ryan and Lopez, but you’ll also never see the 4 1/3 with 7 runs that you also get from them..  

[IndianaTwin]

 

I'm not concerned about identifying a "No. 1" starter. I've been saying all season that they have five guys who can pitch or have pitched "like a No. 1" for an extended period of time. That's better than having a clear 1-2-3-4-5. 

[Schmoeman5]

Only nit picking but he had 1 shaky start that could have been too much to recover from. Fortunately he only gave up 3 runs after hitters went 7-9  in the Seattle start. But was helped by some ? baserunning.  But he did shut them down after that. I said at the all-star break when they sent possibly their 3&4 starters to that game. But yes Ober has done very well. I'm sure they're watching his innings but there's been no mention of a possible shutdown yet. I hope it doesn't come to that.

[David Maro]

Because he had to start the season in St.Paul he has come up with attitude to prove he belongs. I like that in every player who comes to Majors. Playing with a edge makes you a better player. At this time he gives the team a good chance to win. And if Maeda can keep pitching well maybe the other 3 will step up and pitch better.

[Kenny Powers]

What I love about Ober is he just flat our produces.  His career numbers from his time in the minors:

20 wins.  5 losses.  232 innings.  285 Ks.  2.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  That's some pretty good numbers.  And even doing that, he was never really a ranked prospect outside of being #25 in the pipeline for 2021.  He just does it under the radar.

 

What concerns me about Ober is he's never thrown more than 108 innings in a season...ever.  He's at 94.7 now....I'm hopeful, but it might be stretch to count him him to eat innings for the second half.

 

[DocBauer]

I've been on his bandwagon since he came up in 2021, with changes in his delivery, to avoid injuries. And I was 100% happy with the way they limited his IP. And in 2022 he was excellent at the start of year and at the end. Such a shame he got hurt through the mid third. Lower abdominal I jury I believe. Never heard for sure, but a possible hernia?

Regardless, he's been excellent this year. The Twins #1? I don't know that I'm ready to say that at this point, no matter how good he's been. Ryan has been just as good, except for that Baltimore game before the break Ugh! And Lopez has been way better than some of the "obvious" numbers, as reported in the OP. I don't feel like Gray is the #1 right now, though he's also been good. I feel like you can count on 5 solid to really good IP every time out. And I'm OK with that.

But does it matter who is #1? As IndianaTwin stated, having 4-5 guys who are quality is what I care about. But I do like Ober getting his deserved props!

I do think Gray is signed by someone on a 3yr deal this offseason that the Twins won't match. But the 2yrs they got have been good, and the extra draft pick will be nice to have.

Ober is part of 2024 and beyond, and I love having him. I think he's clearly NOT just a solid 4 or OK 5. He's a legitimate #3 unless you have 3 others that are just so good he has to be pushed down a notch. 

Barring a trade or FA, he's part of the top 3 for next year for sure. Paddack might, hopefully, also be part of the rotation, healthy and building on the improvements he made when he joined the Twins last year. But just figuring time to get full control back, he figures as the 4th or even 5th arm initially. Right now, Varland figures in to one of those last 2 spots. And I really like Varland. Even with a trio of poor starts this year before his demotion...imagine a rookie having some speed bumps, right?...he's shown really well both last year and this year. Not mentioned in the OP, and omitted for obvious reasons, Maeda has looked almost the same as he did in 2020, and ST in 2021 before his arm got hurt. Right now, with a couple months still to go, I see him as a very possible re-sign for 2yrs that won't cost much. Like this year, that gives us 6 SP options to begin the 2024 season with depth. Not a bad thing to have.

But unlike the beginning of this year, Ober isn't a guy on the cusp. He's part of the top 3 for sure, unless something unexpected happens. He doesn't just deserve it, he's proven it.

 

[HrbieFan]

Majority of pitcher injuries are not from pitching too many injuries. They are caused by improper stretching,  improper shoulder angle and just overall wear n tare. The latter can kick in at any time. IMO, you use the arm while you can, with a little concern to the future 

[JD-TWINS]

Don’t think he should be pushed forward into the first slot in a play-off series……doesn’t seem fair to him. I can’t imagine going past a game 3 in any series without him starting a game though! He’s mentally & mechanically rock solid! Excellent control nearly every time out.

If the season ends & we’re in a battle to the wire and he’s up next due to how rest falls, I have no problem throwing him first.

Maeda with a 2.5 ERA over last 5 starts………Ober……….Gray, Ryan, Lopez is awfully good v. anyone. There are flaws with the latter 3 & am hoping they can make adjustments from here on out!!

[Hans Birkeland]

17 hours ago, Beast said:

It’s indisputable that he’s the most consistent.  You’ll never see the 8 inning shutout with 12 Ks like you’ll get with Ryan and Lopez, but you’ll also never see the 4 1/3 with 7 runs that you also get from them..  

100% There's more risk reward with the other four starters, but 6 IP 3 ER or less you can bank on with Ober, which is a nice luxury to have!

[Otaknam]

We’ll researched column. 

[JD-TWINS]

Wouldn’t it be interesting but also potentially a very good strategic move to go with Ober-Lopez-Ryan-Maeda as our 4 playoff starters. Thus Sonny Gray to the Pen. He could pitch 2 innings every other game…….he’s almost un-hittable for that length of outing. His approach would be a complete change v. whoever started! He could be devastating in innings 6-7 & we only need our Pen to cover 2 innings.

He could go 2 innings game 1, for example …….sit game 2……then an off day………ready for game 3 if needed. I know it sounds a little crazy but his ERA is 4.00 plus for last 3 months………he typically has one bad inning and is lights out in other innings. Knowing he’s going 2 innings would let him be more aggressive as needed, with his fastball.

Gotta get there first.

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/there-are-better-things-to-be-than-interesting/

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/there-are-better-things-to-be-than-interesting/

 

So now that that’s been written about, we can expect the streak to end in his next start. 🙂

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

So now that that’s been written about, we can expect the streak to end in his next start. 🙂

almost certainly

[Minny505]

Quote

"Opponents are hitting .354 off of his sweeper/slider with four home runs, so it looks as though only one of his Driveline-sourced pitches has been worth the hype (his split-change has still been effective)."

I heard Eno Sarris mention on Rates & Barrels a few weeks ago that, across MLB, the sweeper has been getting hit harder and harder every month in 2023.

His theory is that the pitch has started to be thrown this season by so many pitchers that hitters have picked it up now and are crushing it on a more frequent basis every day. It is quickly losing its effectiveness around the league and many pitchers are starting to reduce usage with some dropping the pitch altogether.

[Hans Birkeland]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/there-are-better-things-to-be-than-interesting/

 

This is awesome- I didn't realize he was that reliable.