Rumor: Cardinals Facing Outfield Logjam Leading Up to Trade Deadline

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cardinals recently announced they will be sellers at the deadline and it appears they have a looming outfield logjam that may interest the Minnesota Twins.

It takes only a cursory glance to see that the Twins badly need a right-handed corner outfielder to take some of the burden from left-handers Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner... am I forgetting anyone? It's a long list.

At the corner spots and utility positions, the Cardinals have a slew of players: Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and even more on top of that.

Unfortunately for the Twins, many of those players hit from the left side of the plate but Tyler O'Neill bats right-handed and Dylan Carlson is a switch-hitter.

It feels like there's an easy match between the Twins and Cardinals and I haven't even mentioned Paul Goldschmidt.

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[CRF]

I'd love to have Walker, but there's no chance the Cards trade him. O'Neill, Donovan, and Carlson are interesting possibilities. The Cards have won 5 in a row and might be on the verge of turning it around. It remains to be seen how much dealing Mozy is willing to do. They still could conceivably have a chance to make a run in the NL central. It bears very close watching for sure. 

[stringer bell]

Carlson is a switch hitter with better splits vs. LH pitching. He’s under team control for three more years. He’s center field capable and was a first round draft choice. He won’t come cheap, but would be an excellent get for this year and beyond. 

[Jocko87]

19 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Carlson is a switch hitter with better splits vs. LH pitching. He’s under team control for three more years. He’s center field capable and was a first round draft choice. He won’t come cheap, but would be an excellent get for this year and beyond. 

It would be awfully expensive.  O'Neill has been terrible but could be had for a comparable song.  He's also the player type that can get white hot for a stretch.  I'd want to see that he actually came back healthy though. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Much rather have Carlson. I think the jury is still very out on whether ONeill can hit at the MLB level. Carlson is the better player. The issue is that Carlson costs us something like Canterino and Wallner, or Canterino, Woods-Richardson, and another mid-level guy since the Cardinals want pitching, not more OFs.  Maybe we get O'Neill for just one of the better AAA pitchers (Varland or SWR) and a mid-level prospect if its SWR. Not sure I'm willing to pay the price for Carlson, don't want O'Neill enough to pay what he costs.  

Bottom line, is I would make the deal for Carlson if we only have to give up one of Canterino, Varland, or SWR plus a prospect other than Wallner, maybe Larnach. I'm not sure that gets it done so I probably don't make the deal.  

[nicksaviking]

The Cardinals have said Walker is unavailable.

As to the other names, I just don't see much point in getting more hitters who's peak potential is that of an average hitter. This team's problem is not having middle of the order bats, they need top tier, .850+ OPS, well rounded hitters.

And I don't think this team is able to get any of those, and even if they could, my guess is still that ownership will not give them a chance to mess up another big time trade.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

left-handers Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner... am I forgetting anyone?

They seem to like to deploy Nick Gordon in LF, and he'll be back eventually.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

They seem to like to deploy Nick Gordon in LF, and he'll be back eventually.

Yeah, thought about mentioning him but didn't feel like looking up his return schedule (hadn't heard anything in a long time).

[IndianaTwin]

It’s an easy match, except for the whole part of them wanting something of value in return.

And they particularly want MLB-ready pitching. So no, not really an easy match. 

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Much rather have Carlson. I think the jury is still very out on whether ONeill can hit at the MLB level.

1300 ML at bats over 6 years at a .776 OPS including a full season at .912.  He's on a pension track already.  At the prices for each I'd give O'Neill a swing.  

[dxpavelka]

If I had a nickel for every easy match I've seen over the last 50 years that DIDN'T lead to a trade......

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

1300 ML at bats over 6 years at a .776 OPS including a full season at .912.  He's on a pension track already.  At the prices for each I'd give O'Neill a swing.  

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/cardinals-trade-rumors-dylan-carlson-tyler-oneill.html

Then there’s this.  I lived in Cardinals country for most of O’Neills time there and they do really like him. If they are more keen to trade Carlson I’d be curious what it would cost.  

[IndianaTwin]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If I had a nickel for every easy match I've seen over the last 50 years that DIDN'T lead to a trade......

You’d have a lot of nickels.

[weitz41]

I think I prefer Carlson. I read somewhere that he was likely their 4th outfielder which may reduce the cost a smidge. The problem is what the Cards want in return. Pitching...Using BTV the easiest match is Varland and Festa. I have a hard time believing Carlson would be that much of an upgrade to part with that much pitching.

Also, Edman has spent time in the OF and could be someone they may consider moving.

Willi Castro is basically giving us the same output OPS wise as either, with more WAR. 

[stringer bell]

Carlson is younger than either Wallner or Larnach. If he were added to the Twins, I have a hard time seeing playing time for both of those guys anyway. If Wallner (or Larnach) would be included as a return, would the Cards need more than Varland/SWR? Of course, from the StL side, if Carlson isn't getting playing time, why would Wallner or Larnach?

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Cardinals have said Walker is unavailable.

As to the other names, I just don't see much point in getting more hitters who's peak potential is that of an average hitter. This team's problem is not having middle of the order bats, they need top tier, .850+ OPS, well rounded hitters.

And I don't think this team is able to get any of those, and even if they could, my guess is still that ownership will not give them a chance to mess up another big time trade.

Why would the Cardinals (anyone) trade an .850 OPS guy…….potential guy……..in this case, Walker?

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Why would the Cardinals (anyone) trade an .850 OPS guy…….potential guy……..in this case, Walker?

Right, the Twins can’t trade for what they actually need.

Don’t trade just for the sake of trading.

[Seth Stohs]

In the beginning of the Cardinals' deadline dealings, they began with Genesis Cabrera's exodus to Toronto. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

In the beginning of the Cardinals' deadline dealings, they began with Genesis Cabrera's exodus to Toronto. 

Biblical in its beauty.

 

[Aerodeliria]

Go for the Nootbar Express. He hits lefties better than righties...I think because of his swing. He plays excellent defense, and most importantly, we can have Noot Bar Night at Target Field (a new candy bar invented by Pearson Candy to welcome him to the Twins.)

[twinfan]

Since they won't trade Arenado (or so they say), shoot for Carlson. Better to have a 3 years left player than a rental. I can't see them trading Nootbar but you never know.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Lou Hennessey makes a strong case for Carlson. The defensive skills he brings to the table on top of his numbers against left-handed pitchers makes him a solid option.  He is young, so he may come at a steep price. If the Cards would take Varland, SWR, or another minor league pitcher in return, this could get done.  Twins can then look to deal left handed outfield bats for a solid reliever or prospects.  

[old nurse]

Like the Twins with left handed outfielders, it is not a logjam as much as it is a pile of branches. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Everything you read says that Nootbar isn't available, Carlson may be for the right pitching package. Assuming that's right, the question is would you trade Varland AND SWR or Festa for him? That's what it will take, not Varland OR SWR. Even then we might have to add in a lower-level prospect. You might be able to keep Varland and sub in Festa or Raya. Price is going to be pretty steep, but St. Louis wants MLB ready pitching, not longer term prospects.

Tough issue because let's not forget that the Twins are losing the alleged "glut" of MLB OFs next year. Gallo will not be back. MAT will be a free agent and Kepler will be a tough choice at 10m so he may be gone. Buxton in CF? Hard to bank on that at this point. We may be down to Willi Castro, Wallner and Larnach in the OF next year. Not pretty.  At the very least, we will need a LF and we may need a CF and a LF. Carlson could fill that hole.  

I would trade for Carlson - or Lane Thomas for that matter - if we don't have to include Varland, Festa or Raya. Every other MiLB pitcher is available in my thinking, including Balazovic and Moran. Unfortunately, that probably doesn't get it done so I'm guessing Carlson and Johnson are out of my price range. 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Paul Goldschmidt or bust.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:11 PM, Jocko87 said:

1300 ML at bats over 6 years at a .776 OPS including a full season at .912.  He's on a pension track already.  At the prices for each I'd give O'Neill a swing.  

O'Neill had good years in 2018 and 2019 in limited ABs (less than 175 ABs each year), and a very good year in 2021. He has been pretty poor since then. Even if you throw out 2020 as just too weird a year to learn much (he hit .173/.261/.360 (.621) in 2020), he was pretty weak in 2022 - .228/.308.392(.700) - and even worse so far this year at .229/.308/.333 (.641). I can see the reason to think he might come back but I sure don't want to spend much capital hoping for that possibility to manifest. I'd rather have Carlson than O'Neill for the same price. 

[Jocko87]

19 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

O'Neill had good years in 2018 and 2019 in limited ABs (less than 175 ABs each year), and a very good year in 2021. He has been pretty poor since then. Even if you throw out 2020 as just too weird a year to learn much (he hit .173/.261/.360 (.621) in 2020), he was pretty weak in 2022 - .228/.308.392(.700) - and even worse so far this year at .229/.308/.333 (.641). I can see the reason to think he might come back but I sure don't want to spend much capital hoping for that possibility to manifest. I'd rather have Carlson than O'Neill for the same price. 

I don't think the price is similar but would agree that if it was Carlson would be the clear choice.  The Cards do love O'Neill but they may also be showcasing him for the deadline by benching Carlson.  Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of faith in the Twins fixing O'Neill at this point either.