Is the Next Joe Ryan Already in the Twins System?

[Cody Christie]

Many evaluators considered Joe Ryan a unique prospect when the Twins acquired him from the Tampa Bay Rays for Nelson Cruz. Now the organization might have a similar pitcher poised to break out.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter, Fort Myers Miracle

Developing pitching prospects is not an exact science, and teams always seek to gain an advantage by finding players that fit a typical mold. By many accounts, Joe Ryan broke nearly every mold for a starting pitcher at the onset of his professional career. He was able to be successful in the minors by throwing fastballs for the majority of his pitches. As a former water polo player, his unique arm angle gave batters a different angle, making it tough to make consistent contact. In parts of four minor league seasons, he posted 13.0 K/9 with a 0.86 WHIP. 

Even with these significant totals, few evaluators thought Ryan’s success could continue at the big-league level because he relied heavily on one pitch. Fans saw this play out in Ryan’s first call-up when he threw his fastball over 65% of the time, but his strikeout totals dropped compared to his minor league numbers. Ryan went to Driveline this winter and reinvented himself to the point where he throws fastballs less than 60% of the time. He’s also changed his pitch mix with a split-finger, a sweeper, and a slider. In the season’s first half, Ryan has been one of the team’s best-starting pitchers and has a chance to make his first All-Star appearance. 

Ryan was not a finished product when the Twins acquired him, but he seems out to prove he is more than a one-pitch starter. In the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins drafted a player similar to Ryan in that they are both college draft picks from California with a background in water polo. Minnesota drafted C.J. Culpepper in the 13th round from California Baptist University, where he finished his junior season with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 69 innings. After signing with the Twins, he made one scoreless appearance in the Florida Complex League. 

Culpepper is off to a tremendous start during his first full professional season. He has limited opponents to nine earned runs (2.55 ERA) on 26 hits in 35 1/3 innings in eight starts. His 10.4 K/9 is similar to his collegiate career, and he’s pounded the strike zone with a 41-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has yet to surrender a home run and has given up one earned run or fewer in seven-of-nine starts. It’s a tremendous start to his career, and he might be a relatively unknown prospect for fans of the organization.

Like with Ryan, opponents have a tough time making consistent contact. Batters have hit .206/.281/.214 (.495) against him with only one extra-base hit in 140 plate appearances. He is also over a year younger than the average age of the competition in the FSL, so he has faced older batters in over 41% of his at-bats. He’s pitched five innings or more in nearly half of his appearances and accrued double-digit swinging strikes in three starts. 

Culpepper is early in his professional career and has multiple development steps to take before he reaches the upper minors. Ryan has developed into a core piece for the Twins while continuing to improve after making his MLB debut. There are surface-level similarities between Culpepper and Ryan, so the Twins could follow a similar formula to help Culpepper succeed even more when climbing the organizational ladder. 

What are your early impressions of Culpepper? Can he follow a similar career path to Ryan? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Doctor Wu]

Thanks for the insight and report on Culpepper. I know next to nothing about the guy, but I'm always thankful for these reports that open my eyes and put players like that on my radar. Thank you!

[tony&rodney]

Have followed him this year and wondered whether he might get moved to Cedar Rapids in July. Good start. Nice article.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Interesting article. I hope Culpepper has the same fire in his belly that Ryan has.

[Otaknam]

It’s too early to draw comparisons for a guy so low in the minors. But thanks for the information on a prospect. 

[mikelink45]

It's nice to become informed. Because I know nothing about this pitcher. 

[Blyleven2011]

So Culpepper is a clone to Ryan  ,,,

If he's doing good at the Florida level  , a promotion should be coming soon ...

[Blyleven2011]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It's nice to become informed. Because I know nothing about this pitcher. 

Culpepper was drafted last year , along with zebby mathews and Cory Lewis  ,,, 

There has been of hype on these pitchers who have gotten off to a good start in pro ball  ....

Lewis throws a knuckleball in his arsenal  , all three will get promoted  or have been promoted to high a ball cedar rapids this year  ....

[dxpavelka]

DON'T LET HIM CUT THAT HAIR!!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Interesting article. I hope Culpepper has the same fire in his belly that Ryan has.

Agree. He’s got a long way to go but emulating Ryan’s attitude/mental make-up will carry him a long way as well.

[DocBauer]

I wasn't sure what to make of him when drafted. There just didn't see anything that jumped off the page when I read about him. A decent frame and fewer innings at a smaller school made him interesting as having a lot of growth potential. Sure looks like that is the case so far. 

Just about everyone from the 2022 draft is off to a great start in their pro career. 

[ashbury]

Roster spots are kind of a precious commodity. but if the FO is ready to move on from some 25-year old at Cedar Rapids and also have a promising young arm in the minor league complex they are ready to try at low-A Ft Myers, then Culpepper has put himself in line for a promotion with his performance this year.  As a college draftee, he's not super young, so keep moving him up if his current coach thinks he's mastered what he's at low-A to learn.

[Seth Stohs]

Day 3 draft picks are never going to look exciting that day, but the Twins have really done a nice job with them. Consider Varland, Ober, Festa, Ohl, Nowlin, etc. Even Day 2 guys aren't terribly exciting since we really know so little about them. 

I don't worry too much about guys getting promoted from Low-A to High-A. Josh Winder went right from Low-A to AA. Pierson Ohl spent all of last season in Low-A, and after 8 games this year in Cedar Rapids, he was promoted to AA already. The key is getting them innings and having pitcher development personnel on the same page across the organization so that he can work on things regardless of where he's pitching.