Carlos Aguiar Slugging His Way Into the Top Prospect Conversation

[Cody Christie]

Prospects signed on the international market can take time to develop because they are teenagers when they sign. One Twins farm hand is slugging his way into the top prospect conversation.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins signed Carlos Aguiar out of Venezuela in September 2017 when he was 16 years old. Minnesota gave him a $1 million signing bonus and sent him to the Dominican Summer League for the 2018 season. In 33 games, he hit .228/.328/.416 (.744) with five doubles, four triples, and two home runs. Aguiar posted a 30-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio while also going 6-for-11 in stolen base attempts. There were some positive signs, but also room for improvement. 

Unfortunately, there were some bumps in the road in future seasons. In 2019, Aguiar came stateside but was limited to seven games played. He went 1-for-18 (.056 BA) with one double and 11 strikeouts. His 2021 season was also limited to 29 games and 107 plate appearances. Aguiar hit .217/.280/.495 (.775) with one double, one triple, and eight home runs. Through his first three professional seasons, Aguiar had never played more than 33 games with 121 plate appearances. 

The Twins hoped Aguiar would get back on track during the 2022 season, and he showed some of the power the organization hoped he'd develop when they signed him. In 46 games, he hit .240/.289/.541 (.830) with ten doubles, two triples, and ten home runs. He continued to strike out at a high rate, with 67 strikeouts in 156 plate appearances. Even with limited action, Aguiar faced older pitchers in over 75% of his plate appearances and posted an .852 OPS against them. 

Minnesota sent Aguiar back to Fort Myers for his age-21 season, where he is slightly younger than the average age of the competition. He's closing in on a career-high in games played, and there have been other improvements to his performance. His walk rate and strikeout rate have improved compared to his career numbers. Aguiar has also shown some strong abilities on the base paths with a career-high six triples. 

Aguiar added a signature game last week, going 3-for-5 with three home runs, three runs, and five RBI. Two of his homers came in the same inning as the Mighty Mussels powered themselves to a big win. It was his second game of the year with multiple home runs and his third game with multiple extra-base hits. He ranks first in the Florida State League in triples, and he's only one home run behind tying the league leader (Jared Serna- 8 HR). 

Defensively, he's played all three outfield positions at different parts of his career. Over the last two seasons, the Twins have been playing him regularly in right field, where he has the tools to be an above-average defender. His bat will be his ticket to move up the organizational ladder, and his power-speed combination will provide value, especially if he can continue to cut back on strikeouts and increase his walk rate. 

Aguiar won't appear on the Twins' top prospect lists because of his limited track record in his first five professional seasons. However, he has stayed healthy in 2023, and his production continues to improve. The Twins may promote him to Cedar Rapids later this season, where he will continue to be young for his level. Don't be surprised if Aguiar starts making his way onto top-30 lists for Twins prospects, especially in the second half of 2023. 

What are your impressions of Aguiar so far in his professional career? Do you view him as one of the organization's top 30 prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

For more Twins Daily content on Carlos Aguiar over the years, click here. 

View full article

[jkcarew]

Same team, same birth year (2001)…

Jorel Ortega is having a better year and appears the more complete hitter and base runner at this stage (playing mostly 3B).

Not an international signing…6th round pick out of Tennessee, signed for $250K

[ashbury]

Promising.

How long until they have to make 40-man/Rule-5 decisions on him. Pretty soon, yes?

[FlyingFinn]

32 minutes ago, ashbury said:

How long until they have to make 40-man/Rule-5 decisions on him. Pretty soon, yes?

He already passed through Rule 5 this last year.

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

He already passed through Rule 5 this last year.

Okay.  But Rule 5 is the gift that keeps on giving, or at least threatens to.  At some point he'll be advanced enough that another team might be enticed, and yet not advanced enough to give our team an easy decision.  I wish the league rules (and/or Basic Agreement with the players) were a bit more relaxed where it comes to young signees.  I realize the rules are there to prevent deep teams from smothering a player's chances for too long, and also to give bottom-feeder teams some hope, but it feels out of balance to me - let the top-10 revenue teams help stock the bottom-10 revenue teams' rosters and leave my team alone.  Anyway thanks for the fact-check.

[Dman]

I am still not sold that what he is doing is sustainable up the levels and even less so at the MLB level.  HIs K rate was 43% last year and still a beefy 31% this year.  It is a Rooker\Wallner type profile which isn't horrible but he will have to find a way to K less and make more contact to make it work.

That being said he is still a very interesting prospect. He is young enough to find the patience he will need to succeed and he has a really good power stroke and runs fairly well.  Just needs to keep improving and moving up levels and maybe something clicks that moves him from good to great.

I don't see him needing to be protected this year as the aggressive style with a less than 10% walk rate at the minors lowest level isn't likely to translate well at the big league level.  There are things to dream on and warts in his numbers gonna have to wait and see.

[DocBauer]

Full confession, despite following the entire system with great detail, I often lose track of the Twins international signings once the ink dries. They are 16-19yo and spend at least one season in the DSL, if not two, before they reach the FCL, the former GCL. At that point, I begin to read about them here at TD, and occasionally elsewhere, and memory starts to click in. But even then, draft choices have  writeups before and after the draft and are much easier to gather information on and refresh or better commit to memory.

So I tend to forget, at times, about prospects like Aguiar. He absolutely is performing at a pretty solid level for Ft Myers this season, and offering optimism at his age 21 year. And in regard to time in the system, and other similar age prospects, 21yo is not old for low A. Further, international signings are not only adjusting to whatever level they are at, like any prospect, but they have been adjusting the last year, or two, to a different country, language, culture, etc. So sometimes they might need a little more time to figure stuff out. No excuses, it's just that every young prospect is different than every other prospect, but international kids have different adjustments to also make.

Aguiar is nothing close to a finished prospect, and I have zero information as to the injuries he's had previously, but being healthy now and getting all these games played leads to a logical reason as to why we're now seeing some quality results. Will he be ready for a promotion at some point this season? Hmmm...maybe. But I doubt he does anything this season to make him a rule 5 loss risk. I'd just like to see him continue doing what he's doing now, and let things play out. But he has looked encouraging so far in 2023.

[roger]

I wish they would do something about the Rule 5 for International kids signed when they are 16-17.  But I also wish some Twin would come up with a big late inning hit.  Oh well.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Okay.  But Rule 5 is the gift that keeps on giving, or at least threatens to.  At some point he'll be advanced enough that another team might be enticed, and yet not advanced enough to give our team an easy decision.  I wish the league rules (and/or Basic Agreement with the players) were a bit more relaxed where it comes to young signees.  I realize the rules are there to prevent deep teams from smothering a player's chances for too long, and also to give bottom-feeder teams some hope, but it feels out of balance to me - let the top-10 revenue teams help stock the bottom-10 revenue teams' rosters and leave my team alone.  Anyway thanks for the fact-check.

I think after 6 minor league seasons they can be free agents if not on the roster.

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, old nurse said:

I think after 6 minor league seasons they can be free agents if not on the roster.

I don't remember the exact details and it may vary with how old the player was when the first contract was signed, but yes, there is that too.

[Aerodeliria]

6 hours ago, roger said:

I wish they would do something about the Rule 5 for International kids signed when they are 16-17.  But I also wish some Twin would come up with a big late inning hit.  Oh well.

Your wish was granted today!

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, roger said:

I wish they would do something about the Rule 5 for International kids signed when they are 16-17.  But I also wish some Twin would come up with a big late inning hit.  Oh well.

There's a reasonable argument that the clock maybe shouldn't start ticking on them for Rule 5 service time until they hit 18 or something. Because it can be pretty tough on the roster spots to protect a guy in A-ball who is still 2-3 years away, but is already pushing his service time because he was signed internationally at 16. Especially when they haven't played full-season pro ball for their first 2-3 seasons.

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

There's a reasonable argument that the clock maybe shouldn't start ticking on them for Rule 5 service time until they hit 18 or something. Because it can be pretty tough on the roster spots to protect a guy in A-ball who is still 2-3 years away, but is already pushing his service time because he was signed internationally at 16. Especially when they haven't played full-season pro ball for their first 2-3 seasons.

I don't get this argument, back in the threads about a new labor agreement most everybody was backing the players, this rule would totally not be in the players best interest to change, teams are already manipulating the players and there time. For example Ober, Wallner, Ryan, Varland, Julien all got late starts and thus will probably lose out on getting more than one big contract (if event that), Compared to guys like Buxton and Correa who got an early start.

As for this guy he is in low A at age 22, to me that isn't much of a prospect unless he gets to at least AA this year. Otherwise he is just another mid 20's guy taking up a 40 man spot.

[AceWrigley]

49 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

As for this guy he is in low A at age 22, to me that isn't much of a prospect unless he gets to at least AA this year. Otherwise he is just another mid 20's guy taking up a 40 man spot.

This is his age 21 season with a total of 154 pro games played. his career stat line reads like an Adam Brett Walker season. Definitely a player worth keeping an eye on, especially if he gets control of the whiff machine.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't get this argument, back in the threads about a new labor agreement most everybody was backing the players, this rule would totally not be in the players best interest to change, teams are already manipulating the players and there time. For example Ober, Wallner, Ryan, Varland, Julien all got late starts and thus will probably lose out on getting more than one big contract (if event that), Compared to guys like Buxton and Correa who got an early start.

As for this guy he is in low A at age 22, to me that isn't much of a prospect unless he gets to at least AA this year. Otherwise he is just another mid 20's guy taking up a 40 man spot.

Making a change on players who signed at 16 wouldn't impact any of the players you've listed, though. I think it would be a mixed bag for the players: it would reduce some of the freedom (fewer players getting minor-league free agency at age 22), but also might position younger players to have a better development track if teams aren't having to make a decision on a low-A ball guy as early. I'm literally only suggesting this be considered as an adjustment for players who sign before they are age 18.

Ober, Wallner, Ryan, Varland, and Julien all were college players, which is the biggest reason they got their later starts in pro ball. But none of them were super-high picks either (Wallner was the only 1st round pick in the bunch and he was a supplemental pick; none of the others went above round 7) whereas Buxton and Correa were two of the absolute best prospects in the country, being the 1st and 2nd overall picks in their draft. So the comp is a little out of whack: Buxton and Correa didn't just get more cracks at paydays because they started at 18. they got it because they were the absolute best talents.

[Twinsrtheworst]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Full confession, despite following the entire system with great detail, I often lose track of the Twins international signings once the ink dries. They are 16-19yo and spend at least one season in the DSL, if not two, before they reach the FCL, the former GCL. At that point, I begin to read about them here at TD, and occasionally elsewhere, and memory starts to click in. But even then, draft choices have  writeups before and after the draft and are much easier to gather information on and refresh or better commit to memory.

So I tend to forget, at times, about prospects like Aguiar. He absolutely is performing at a pretty solid level for Ft Myers this season, and offering optimism at his age 21 year. And in regard to time in the system, and other similar age prospects, 21yo is not old for low A. Further, international signings are not only adjusting to whatever level they are at, like any prospect, but they have been adjusting the last year, or two, to a different country, language, culture, etc. So sometimes they might need a little more time to figure stuff out. No excuses, it's just that every young prospect is different than every other prospect, but international kids have different adjustments to also make.

Aguiar is nothing close to a finished prospect, and I have zero information as to the injuries he's had previously, but being healthy now and getting all these games played leads to a logical reason as to why we're now seeing some quality results. Will he be ready for a promotion at some point this season? Hmmm...maybe. But I doubt he does anything this season to make him a rule 5 loss risk. I'd just like to see him continue doing what he's doing now, and let things play out. But he has looked encouraging so far in 2023.

I love reading a comment like this.  Well said @DocBauer.  Knowing him pretty well, he did and many do have a hard time adjusting to a new country and new language.  I am extremely proud of this young man.  After nagging injuries he stated to me in the spring how excited he was to actually feel healthy coming into the season.  He is a very hard working young man that may or not make it to the MLB.  But the effort and heart are there.  I too am just happy he's healthy and adjusting.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Making a change on players who signed at 16 wouldn't impact any of the players you've listed, though. I think it would be a mixed bag for the players: it would reduce some of the freedom (fewer players getting minor-league free agency at age 22), but also might position younger players to have a better development track if teams aren't having to make a decision on a low-A ball guy as early. I'm literally only suggesting this be considered as an adjustment for players who sign before they are age 18.

Ober, Wallner, Ryan, Varland, and Julien all were college players, which is the biggest reason they got their later starts in pro ball. But none of them were super-high picks either (Wallner was the only 1st round pick in the bunch and he was a supplemental pick; none of the others went above round 7) whereas Buxton and Correa were two of the absolute best prospects in the country, being the 1st and 2nd overall picks in their draft. So the comp is a little out of whack: Buxton and Correa didn't just get more cracks at paydays because they started at 18. they got it because they were the absolute best talents.

Not saying it would affect these type of players. What I was trying to say was if teams could manipulate those young players by having more years of control early  and then though the arbitration years, I believe they would. IDK, maybe that is what they are doing with them now, if they don't scream superstar they have them spend more time in the lower minors in hope other teams won't take them?