Is Ryan Jeffers for Real?

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason the Minnesota Twins needed to shore up their catching position. With a free agent departure, and lack of production from the role in general, it was a clear need. They accomplished that goal by adding veteran Christian Vazquez, but Ryan Jeffers has held his own as well.

 

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

When the Minnesota Twins signed Christian Vazquez as a free agent this offseason, it was under the premise that he would garner the bulk of the starts behind the plate. So far that has been the case for manager Rocco Baldelli. The unexpected outcome has been an extremely productive Ryan Jeffers, and he’s arguably off to the best start of his career.

Gary Sanchez provided the Twins with 1.3 fWAR a season ago, but it still came with rather empty offensive production, and defense that left plenty to be desired. Jeffers managed to play in just 67 games due to a thumb injury, but he still only posted a 0.9 fWAR and remained a question mark behind the plate. Just to get through the season, Minnesota needed to turn to the likes of Sandy Leon, Caleb Hamilton, and Jose Godoy.

Drafted as a bat-first player that may not stay behind the dish (if you asked the draft 'experts' at that time), Jeffers flew through the system after revamping his receiving style. Working to be a solid pitch framer and better game-caller, he got his first chance behind Mitch Garver. The bat flashed at times, but Jeffers never truly showed the defensive acumen to make a team comfortable.

Fast-forward to today, and Jeffers has a 0.4 fWAR through his first 12 games. Working as more of a rotational backup for Vazquez, Jeffers is tracking towards a 2.2 fWAR across an entire season. That would more than double his career high, and be among the better marks for a tandem catcher across baseball.

The sample size we’re dealing with is admittedly small given the Twins have played just 29 games and Jeffers has drawn starts in less than half. That said, there are some key factors at play which outline why he is having such a solid year.

First, his process at the plate has returned. Not only is he hitting for a solid average (.270), but his on-base percentage (.357) is back to where it was during his debut season. There is a good deal of luck involved as Jeffers has an unsustainable .409 BABIP and also owns a .203 xBA, but there are a couple of things going in his favor. Chasing less than he ever has at just 23.4%, and whiffing only 10.6% of the time, it appears he has honed in on the zone.

For Jeffers to keep regression at bay, he’ll need to work on quality of contact. Unfortunately this season he has only generated hard hit contact 17.4% of the time, a truly dismal number. He’s also currently toting the lowest average exit velocity of his career, just north of 86 mph. What that may indicate is a process that is working but lacks execution.

It seems that Jeffers has a solid command of the strike zone right now, but he isn’t effectively attacking the pitches he should be looking to do damage on. Being able to marry both of those aspects together is something that can keep him rolling in 2023.

What’s maybe most impressive is that his defense has improved a notch. His framing runs, which could be a calling card, are slightly down, but he’s on pace to surpass his career high in defensive runs saved. There is also how exceptionally well he has combated the new rule changes. With baserunners more active than ever, the Twins needed substantially better than a guy who caught just 18% of base stealers last season.

For his career, Jeffers has not been a great catch-and-throw guy. Some of that is on Minnesota pitchers failing to hold runners on, but a guy owning a career 19.5% caught stealing rate isn’t good either. In 2023, not only has Jeffers yet to allow a passed ball, but he’s also thrown out five-of-twelve base stealers. His 42% ranks at the upper tier across MLB, and it was just a game ago that he led the league.

Becoming more well-rounded is something that Jeffers needed. He couldn’t afford to lack offensively while failing to excel behind the plate. He has taken his defensive game to new heights, and although the numbers are fine on the surface from the bat, more can be done to make sure it stays that way.

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[umterp23]

I like the new approach by Jeffers to stay more compact, reduce extra moving parts in his swing.  He has slimmed down a bit, has improved in all aspects of his game.  Limiting him to back up duty in long term won't allow him to get into a true hitting rhythm, so we take what we can get.

Sure looks like we severely overpaid for Vasquez.  Not impressed with what he has brought to the table

With all being said, our tandem isn't a weak link at the moment

[mickster]

7 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

I like the new approach by Jeffers to stay more compact, reduce extra moving parts in his swing.  He has slimmed down a bit, has improved in all aspects of his game.  Limiting him to back up duty in long term won't allow him to get into a true hitting rhythm, so we take what we can get.

Sure looks like we severely overpaid for Vasquez.  Not impressed with what he has brought to the table

With all being said, our tandem isn't a weak link at the moment

Overpaid?  Not sure, as this tandem is an upgrade over last year.   I am inclined to think some of the pitching improvements need to be credited to Vasquez as well.     We are getting what we paid for, just hoping for a little moew.

[stringer bell]

48 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It seems to me that the team has been somewhat protecting Jeffers by mostly aligning him with LH pitchers thereby improving his hitting stats.  That is kind of unfair to Vasquez and they did the same thing TO Jeffers when we had Mitch Garner as they gave him most of the LH matchups.

On the defensive end, I won't call Jeffers the real deal until I see him throw out some more runners.  He started well in this area this season but recently his throws have been off target and late.  That said, I'm sure some of it is due to the pitchers not holding runners close.  It will be interesting at season's end to compare Vasquez's and Jeffer's percentages of throwing out runners.

The Twins haven't faced many lefties at all. Jeffers does have good splits against left handers so starting him often against lefties makes sense. 

Jeffers has made a few bad plays, including the "wild pitch" charged to Stewart, but he's been a better offensive player than Vazquez. His throwing looks improved overall, but it's probably too soon to make a judgment. 

[Craig Arko]

Maybe he’s a CGI added in by Bally.

[rusty boots]

This dude stinks its been 12 games #chill out

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It seems to me that the team has been somewhat protecting Jeffers by mostly aligning him with LH pitchers thereby improving his hitting stats.  That is kind of unfair to Vasquez and they did the same thing TO Jeffers when we had Mitch Garner as they gave him most of the LH matchups.

Yes and no. 

71 PA vs RHP, 10 PA vs LHP - Vazquez

29 PA vs RHP, 18 PA vs LHP - Jeffers

Vazquez has borne the brunt more against righties, but as Stringer said, they just haven't faced that many lefties in all.  Jeffers has faced more RHP than LHP, just not quite as extreme.

But Vazquez hasn't done well against either handed pitcher (OPS .610 and .400 respectively), while Jeffers has exhibited good results so far against righties (OPS .918 and .600).

Jeffers has capitalized.  Vazquez has not.

These are all small numbers to analyze, though.

[Linus]

He is an acceptable back up catcher. That’s it.  He can’t throw and his blocking ability is nil. The other night Nelson threw a low and away fastball and Jeffers didn’t even get leather on it. The fact that when he does get on base he is a horrible base runner doesn’t help. 

[Nine of twelve]

10 hours ago, Linus said:

The other night Nelson threw a low and away fastball

?

[Major League Ready]

He put in the work to change his swing and his throwing.  So far so good and we will just have to see if those changes sustain better performance.  I am not going to assume a player can't get better and stay that way.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

?

Mandela? 

[wabene]

19 hours ago, rusty boots said:

This dude stinks its been 12 games #chill out

That might be his strategy to distract opponents in the box, yo. 

[Blyleven2011]

If he is standing , breathing , talking and walking , he is real ....

Not an alien ...

I'll go read tge post now 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

?

I meant Stewart. Had Brock Nelson on my mind instead of Brock Stewart.