Is Ryan Jeffers for Real?

When the Minnesota Twins signed Christian Vazquez as a free agent this offseason, it was under the premise that he would garner the bulk of the starts behind the plate. So far that has been the case for manager Rocco Baldelli. The unexpected outcome has been an extremely productive Ryan Jeffers, and he’s arguably off to the best start of his career.

Gary Sanchez provided the Twins with 1.3 fWAR a season ago, but it still came with rather empty offensive production, and defense that left plenty to be desired. Jeffers managed to play in just 67 games due to a thumb injury, but he still only posted a 0.9 fWAR and remained a question mark behind the plate. Just to get through the season, Minnesota needed to turn to the likes of Sandy Leon, Caleb Hamilton, and Jose Godoy.

Drafted as a bat-first player that may not stay behind the dish (if you asked the draft 'experts' at that time), Jeffers flew through the system after revamping his receiving style. Working to be a solid pitch framer and better game-caller, he got his first chance behind Mitch Garver. The bat flashed at times, but Jeffers never truly showed the defensive acumen to make a team comfortable.

Fast-forward to today, and Jeffers has a 0.4 fWAR through his first 12 games. Working as more of a rotational backup for Vazquez, Jeffers is tracking towards a 2.2 fWAR across an entire season. That would more than double his career high, and be among the better marks for a tandem catcher across baseball.

The sample size we’re dealing with is admittedly small given the Twins have played just 29 games and Jeffers has drawn starts in less than half. That said, there are some key factors at play which outline why he is having such a solid year.

First, his process at the plate has returned. Not only is he hitting for a solid average (.270), but his on-base percentage (.357) is back to where it was during his debut season. There is a good deal of luck involved as Jeffers has an unsustainable .409 BABIP and also owns a .203 xBA, but there are a couple of things going in his favor. Chasing less than he ever has at just 23.4%, and whiffing only 10.6% of the time, it appears he has honed in on the zone.

For Jeffers to keep regression at bay, he’ll need to work on quality of contact. Unfortunately this season he has only generated hard hit contact 17.4% of the time, a truly dismal number. He’s also currently toting the lowest average exit velocity of his career, just north of 86 mph. What that may indicate is a process that is working but lacks execution.

It seems that Jeffers has a solid command of the strike zone right now, but he isn’t effectively attacking the pitches he should be looking to do damage on. Being able to marry both of those aspects together is something that can keep him rolling in 2023.

What’s maybe most impressive is that his defense has improved a notch. His framing runs, which could be a calling card, are slightly down, but he’s on pace to surpass his career high in defensive runs saved. There is also how exceptionally well he has combated the new rule changes. With baserunners more active than ever, the Twins needed substantially better than a guy who caught just 18% of base stealers last season.

For his career, Jeffers has not been a great catch-and-throw guy. Some of that is on Minnesota pitchers failing to hold runners on, but a guy owning a career 19.5% caught stealing rate isn’t good either. In 2023, not only has Jeffers yet to allow a passed ball, but he’s also thrown out five-of-twelve base stealers. His 42% ranks at the upper tier across MLB, and it was just a game ago that he led the league.

Becoming more well-rounded is something that Jeffers needed. He couldn’t afford to lack offensively while failing to excel behind the plate. He has taken his defensive game to new heights, and although the numbers are fine on the surface from the bat, more can be done to make sure it stays that way.