Roster Crunch? Who stays, who goes?

[stringer bell]

A lot of focus has been on the position players with fairly short term injuries to Polanco, Kepler and Larnach opening the door along with the activation of Lewis. Now the flip side is presenting itself. It is possible that Polanco and Larnach will be available soon(ish) and the guys called up--Wallner (already sent down), Julien and ???? may end up in St. Paul. Donny Barrels gets occasional hits, scares the bejabbers out of me in the field and is a slow 35-year old on a one-year contract. I don't see how he is on the team if all the position players (save Gordon) are healthy. 

Thielbar and Maeda are both starting their rehabs in St. Paul. They can be there as long as a month, but I'm guessing that barring a setback Thielbar will be with the Twins by June 10th. Maeda is a square peg with only round holes available right now. Transition to BP, supplant Varland? Who knows and who knows if he'll be effective. 

I think it's anybody's guess about who is demoted/DFA'd when Thielbar and Maeda are ready and probably it will be decided by injuries. The two worst bullpen arms in May have been Jax and López and they were counted on as high leverage setup guys when the season started. Jose De León has looked good and can't be optioned. Sands has done his job, but has only worked in the lowest of leverage situations and Pagán has two memorable meltdowns mixed in with better than decent showing around them. Much like what happened to Bailey Ober and Matt Wallner, Louie Varland might be the guy to go despite being far from a problem.

[IaBeanCounter]

Kepler will not be DFAd.  The way he hits in Cleveland, I believe he has 16 homers in 50 games at Progressive Field. I suspect he will eventually end up there, either by trade (direct or indirect) or FA.

[Riverbrian]

52 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree that we can't just be cutting players at this point in the season, especially based on literally two good games for Wallner.  However, I would like to see Wallner or Larnach take Kepler's roster spot over the course of the season.  They are unlikely to just DFA Kepler so this could take until July or even the deadline.  The versatility of Lewis / Castro / Farmer and Gallo will provide plenty of options in terms of how they manage the transition of the roster in general. 

While the main guys need to be better, the others guys also need to contribute a little.  Vasquez has been horrendous lately.   His wRC+ for May is 14.  MAT is not much better at 34.  These black holes in the lineup have killed a lot of opportunities.  

Buxtons wRC+ for May is 90.  That has little value as a DH so if this continues, he needs to play CF and MAT goes to a 4th OFer and defensive replacement role.  Perhaps Julien becomes a semi-full-time DH.

Castro and Kepler have a similar amount of bats. Kepler has played every day when healthy over 29 games. Castro has never been hurt while his at bats have been scattered over 42 games.  

Comparing direct with Kepler, Castro has been better in nearly every single offensive category so far. 

I'm willing to bet that Kepler will also push Castro into a short side platoon role.  

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

A lot of focus has been on the position players with fairly short term injuries to Polanco, Kepler and Larnach opening the door along with the activation of Lewis. Now the flip side is presenting itself. It is possible that Polanco and Larnach will be available soon(ish) and the guys called up--Wallner (already sent down), Julien and ???? may end up in St. Paul. Donny Barrels gets occasional hits, scares the bejabbers out of me in the field and is a slow 35-year old on a one-year contract. I don't see how he is on the team if all the position players (save Gordon) are healthy. 

Thielbar and Maeda are both starting their rehabs in St. Paul. They can be there as long as a month, but I'm guessing that barring a setback Thielbar will be with the Twins by June 10th. Maeda is a square peg with only round holes available right now. Transition to BP, supplant Varland? Who knows and who knows if he'll be effective. 

I think it's anybody's guess about who is demoted/DFA'd when Thielbar and Maeda are ready and probably it will be decided by injuries. The two worst bullpen arms in May have been Jax and López and they were counted on as high leverage setup guys when the season started. Jose De León has looked good and can't be optioned. Sands has done his job, but has only worked in the lowest of leverage situations and Pagán has two memorable meltdowns mixed in with better than decent showing around them. Much like what happened to Bailey Ober and Matt Wallner, Louie Varland might be the guy to go despite being far from a problem.

Varland has made 6 starts and only twice went less than 6 innings, which is way better percentage than Gray. Not sure how the Twins justify sending him down. Way different scenario than Wallner. He doesn't need any more minor league innings

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Castro and Kepler have a similar amount of bats. Kepler has played every day when healthy over 29 games. Castro has never been hurt while his at bats have been scattered over 42 games.  

Comparing direct with Kepler, Castro has been better in nearly every single offensive category so far. 

I'm willing to bet that Kepler will also push Castro into a short side platoon role.  

Good point.  I did not think about comparing to Kepler directly.  I think Castro is the new Gordon.  He is even more versatile because he has a better arm and therefore can play 3rd.  Pretty decent base steeler as well.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Good point.  I did not think about comparing to Kepler directly.  I think Castro is the new Gordon.  He is even more versatile because he has a better arm and therefore can play 3rd.  Pretty decent base steeler as well.

I have no idea what Castro will be in the future nor will I even try to predict but the numbers say what they say and I like the rewarding of better numbers. 

I'm sure you know by now that I have an aversion to putting people in boxes like that. Assigned roles, utility man no matter if he hits better than others who apparently can't or don't play multiple positions.

It's almost like the multiple positional guy is being punished for being multiple positional while the guy who can only play one position gets locked in and yet plays more?

Castro can play multiple positions... Perfect... I like those types of players but why doesn't being able to play multiple positions mean that they can compete for playing time against the 3B, SS, 2B, LF, CF and RF. 

Multiple positions should produce more paths to more playing time but utility is viewed as occasional utilization here and there. 

Why does Kepler get utilized like he is Aaron Judge? His numbers are not good enough for that type of utilization. Taylor isn't good enough for Judge type utilization. Gallo isn't good enough for Judge type utilization?

And if the Twins start utilizing players commensurate with their performance... all of a sudden we are are not as crowded in the left handed corner aisle of the department store. 

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

How about moving Buxton to LF? Yes, still injury concerns but fewer chances assumedly means less risk.  Castro (60%) and Taylor (40%) play CF. Gallo plays RF/1B 80% of the time, same for Kirilloff (at 1B unless Gallo has a leg issue), and Kepler plays RF the days Gallo or Kirilloff sit or DH. Also opens up a spot for Julien to stay, play 2B 2-3 days a week while Polanco sits or DHs. I don't know if that really solves the problem but helps. 

[Riverbrian]

With Polanco up and Julien sent down. 

The offense is healthy. 

Larnach is still on the IL but he is probably sent to St. Paul when he clears. 

Gordon of course is down but Lewis has taken his roster spot. 

This is it... We are healthy.

These are the chosen ones. 

 

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

With Polanco up and Julien sent down. 

The offense is healthy. 

Larnach is still on the IL but he is probably sent to St. Paul when he clears. 

Gordon of course is down but Lewis has taken his roster spot. 

This is it... We are healthy.

These are the chosen ones. 

 

Agreed.....on the position player side of the ledger. Maeda and Thielbar are days away from returning to the pitching staff. Assuming that Maeda would not supplant a starting pitcher, two hurlers will have to go. De León and Sands have both handled their roles well, but haven't pitched in much high-leverage, Stewart has been the find of the season. Pagán has pitched well except for two meltdowns and Moran has righted the ship after a mediocre at best April. Pitching culprits in May were Jax and López although Jax has put together three consecutive scoreless outings. 

Sands can be optioned, De León would have to be DFA'd and could be lost to the organization if the Twins tried to send him down. Barring injury, I would expect that the Twins will option Sands, but making a place for Maeda might be a very tough call.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I would expect that the Twins will option Sands, but making a place for Maeda might be a very tough call.

I agree ... it's going to be tough what to do. But, we will need a long reliever if we send down Sands, that will be Maeda's role ... should be. I hope they don't move either Varland or Ober to that role now that they've proven themselves. It's what to do when Thielbar is ready. De León has done well so far. Can he sustain it? That is going to be the tough call right now. So many questions and only difficult answers.

[Riverbrian]

38 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Agreed.....on the position player side of the ledger. Maeda and Thielbar are days away from returning to the pitching staff. Assuming that Maeda would not supplant a starting pitcher, two hurlers will have to go. De León and Sands have both handled their roles well, but haven't pitched in much high-leverage, Stewart has been the find of the season. Pagán has pitched well except for two meltdowns and Moran has righted the ship after a mediocre at best April. Pitching culprits in May were Jax and López although Jax has put together three consecutive scoreless outings. 

Sands can be optioned, De León would have to be DFA'd and could be lost to the organization if the Twins tried to send him down. Barring injury, I would expect that the Twins will option Sands, but making a place for Maeda might be a very tough call.

Yeah... I'd keep the starting 5 off limits although I would consider a 6 man rotation to see how Kenta Maeda measures up with the other 5. June is a good time to give an extra day of rest before the stretch run.

Roster Spots?

Sands for sure

Pitchers with options are:

Duran, Moran and Jax

Duran and Moran are not candidates in my opinion. 

So you are down to Jax optioned or Deleon DFA because Brock Stewart shouldn't be Designated we are going to need him and a Lopez DFA would be way to reactionary.  

Probably De Leon... He's been decent but... what are you gonna do? 

 

 

[stringer bell]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Yeah... I'd keep the starting 5 off limits although I would consider a 6 man rotation to see how Kenta Maeda measures up with the other 5. June is a good time to give an extra day of rest before the stretch run.

Roster Spots?

Sands for sure

Pitchers with options are:

Duran, Moran and Jax

Duran and Moran are not candidates in my opinion. 

So you are down to Jax optioned or Deleon DFA because Brock Stewart shouldn't be Designated we are going to need him and a Lopez DFA would be way to reactionary.  

Probably De Leon... He's been decent but... what are you gonna do? 

 

 

I believe Thielbar will be with the team when they travel to Tampa, and so that transaction would be Thielbar for Sands and the Twins would no longer have a long man. Maeda would come later--he probably needs to be built up quite a bit with the expectation that he will work either multiple innings or move back to the starting rotation. The club has a 30-day window before they have to reinstate the veteran Maeda.

Most likely, this situation will be "solved" by injury. A rotation injury would most likely be filled by Maeda and he could fill a bullpen injury as well, although his role might be considerably different than the reliever he replaces. 

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I believe Thielbar will be with the team when they travel to Tampa, and so that transaction would be Thielbar for Sands and the Twins would no longer have a long man. Maeda would come later--he probably needs to be built up quite a bit with the expectation that he will work either multiple innings or move back to the starting rotation. The club has a 30-day window before they have to reinstate the veteran Maeda.

Most likely, this situation will be "solved" by injury. A rotation injury would most likely be filled by Maeda and he could fill a bullpen injury as well, although his role might be considerably different than the reliever he replaces. 

De Leon can fill the long man role in the interim. 

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

De Leon can fill the long man role in the interim. 

Yes, makes sense. I guess at this time the key thing would be to get Jax and especially López right. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Yes, makes sense. I guess at this time the key thing would be to get Jax and especially López right. 

Lopez has to figure it out with the big club. 

Bullpens are so volatile.   

[Mike Sixel]

Benjamin

1:12

Thoughts on Jose Miranda & his future?

 

Keith Law

1:13

Victim of circumstance. He's a regular for someone. Twins might just not have a place for him. Would really help if he had more (any) defensive value.

[Mike Sixel]

Josh

1:16

Louie Varland & Bailey Ober — middle rotation guys? BOR?

 

Keith Law

1:17

Varland might prove me wrong. I didn't think he was a long-term starter but he looks really, really good.

[Mike Sixel]

Dave

1:53

Happy big birthday! With Joulien sent down today because of Polanco’s place on the Twins’ depth chart, do you think his bat and on-base skills will ultimately translate from MiLB to MLB?

 

Keith Law

1:53

I think he has a long career but is only a sometime regular.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Thanks for bringing those comments in, @Mike Sixel

[Mike Sixel]

Used to do that all the time, but he's mostly behind a paywall now ...

[Rosterman]

Thielbar will be up sooner rather than later. Give Madea the full time in the minors to see if he can start. Sadly he will come up and push Varland back to St. Paul, for the moment.

Rather than release guys and eat salary, the Twins will hope that Kepler, Gallo, Madea can put up some numbers that make them tradable, for even just a low level prospect, as well as the other team eating salary. But how long can they afford them playing bad, especially if others (Correa) are underperforming. The thing is the Twins are performing well in a bad division. Any other division, they would be a team in rebuild.

Varland has at least two more starts before Madea hits even five innings at St. Paul. He sure can control the game if he throws strikes and has his rhythm on the mound.

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

19 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Thielbar will be up sooner rather than later. Give Madea the full time in the minors to see if he can start. Sadly he will come up and push Varland back to St. Paul, for the moment.

The thing is the Twins are performing well in a bad division. Any other division, they would be a team in rebuild.

Varland has at least two more starts before Madea hits even five innings at St. Paul. He sure can control the game if he throws strikes and has his rhythm on the mound.

 

 

 

I think it remains to be seen if Maeda will supplant any current starter. If they want Kenta in the rotation, there might be a turned ankle or torn fingernail for a minimum stay on the IL for someone. 
 

I don’t think any club a couple of games above .500 is ready to tear it down, even if they are in the Rays’ division. 

[msukirbycarew]

Kepler may not hit well but every game I have attended the last 5 years he has made an oustanding play on a difficult drive. He just saved a grand slam the other night. A run scord but the value the catch was huge except that we were already getting blown out.

[Vanimal46]

Encouraging news about Thielbar. Probably back with the Twins in a day or two. 

[stringer bell]

12 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Encouraging news about Thielbar. Probably back with the Twins in a day or two. 

Well, if Sands is used this weekend, I would expect Thielbar to replace him right away. Otherwise, he probably is activated when the Twins face the Rays.

[Squirrel]

 

Pretty much what Van posted but a little more info

[FlyingFinn]

55 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Well, if Sands is used this weekend, I would expect Thielbar to replace him right away. Otherwise, he probably is activated when the Twins face the Rays.

You thinking DeLeon moves to the long man role? Then, if we have a short start, do the Twins DFA him to try send him back to St. Paul if he pitches 4-5 innings and we need a new long man?

[stringer bell]

14 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

You thinking DeLeon moves to the long man role? Then, if we have a short start, do the Twins DFA him to try send him back to St. Paul if he pitches 4-5 innings and we need a new long man?

Probably today and tomorrow Sands is the long man. They can option him. De León would have to go through the DFA process and possibly would be claimed. 

[stringer bell]

Larnach will be rehabbing for the Saints in Buffalo. I don’t know if there’s currently a spot for him on the Twins’ active roster, but whichever is swinging between Trevor and Wallner is probably first in line if there’s an injury. Wallner had three more hits today, so Larnach had better hit the ground running. 

[tony&rodney]

I find myself hoping that Joey Gallo can do something positive every time he comes to the plate. He is working hard in my opinion, which I give hime credit for and admire. Baseball is a tough sport. That said, my hopefulness and optimism for Gallo sees a guy who makes a few plays in the field but is not the guy he once was with a glove. He is not close to as good at first base as Kirilloff and does not come close to Kepler as an outfielder any longer. His bat is very sad these days. Since April, Gallo is wishing and searching for the ball and it is increasingly hard to find for the big guy. I remain hopeful but a decision will be necessary if July arrives with Gallo still looking so sad. You pick who takes his spot if the futility goes on another five weeks. Can Joey turn it around in June?