Maeda, Mahle, Ober - Pick 2

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Maeda is no longer a number 2 to you?

Not if he's not healthy.....and effective. He has been one, until shown otherwise, why not assume he was still one? We now have evidence he might not be. We'll see.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not if he's not healthy.....and effective. He has been one, until shown otherwise, why not assume he was still one? We now have evidence he might not be. We'll see.

I guess I agree with you - my pick two would be Mahle/Ober, although Maeda probably has the least health concerns of those three. 

I wish Maeda would have been permitted to make a couple of short late-season starts last year.

The latest example I found of a starting pitcher in their early-mid 30s coming back from a Tommy John was Jason Vargas, and Vargas did ok for a short time (half a season), but then kind of kicked around for a couple more seasons before retiring. I mean, I wish I was 30 again. 🙂. But competing against 20 somethings puts a 30 something like Maeda at a disadvantage unless his command is absolutely pinpoint. 

[TwinsDr2021]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not if he's not healthy.....and effective. He has been one, until shown otherwise, why not assume he was still one? We now have evidence he might not be. We'll see.

Lets be honest beside 8 starts in 20 and his rookie year in 16, he hasn't been a number 2.

[Vanimal46]

Nobody asked, but my expectations for Maeda are very low. Unless his command returns, he’s likely cooked. 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think, in a logical world, it'd be Mahle 4, Maeda/Ober 5 as a piggyback. 

Ober isn't built up like any of the other starters yet. Putting him in the rotation puts us right back where we were with Archer and the 4 inning starts last year. I want no part of that even if it's 4 no hit innings every time out. Ober has topped 100 innings once in his professional career. Him slicing and dicing lineups 2 innings at a time in spring training shouldn't make us forget about the fact that he's simply not someone they can just put in the rotation and let go. I don't think they'll piggyback them, but that looks the most logical to me. Maeda and Ober take 8 or 9 innings every 5th day. But just handing Ober a rotation spot doesn't seem the least bit logical to me.

With this logic, and I am not saying it is wrong, why are the Twins even bothering trying to make Ober a starter. If he isn't given a chance this year to prove he can stay healthy as a starter and it might take months to ramp up, won't they go into 24 with the same questions on him?

I would like Ober in the majors if he is one of the best 13 pitchers they have. It shouldn't be that hard to get him enough work to be close to stretched out or enough innings to be valuable. Now if the Twins don't think he is one of the best 13 send him down and use him as a backup plan, buts lets not talk about him being a future rotation piece for this team. Next year he will be 28 to start and 29 in July and if history tells us anything he will most likely be starting the down side of his career.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Nobody asked, but my expectations for Maeda are very low. Unless his command returns, he’s likely cooked. 

Agreed. Disappointing for sure.

[wsnydes]

I like this game better when I'm standing at the counter at Arby's...

But if I'm standing at the counter at a baseball game, I have to go with a 6-man rotation or piggyback Ober/Maeda as @chpettit19suggested.

[FlyingFinn]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Unless his command returns, he’s likely cooked. 

Cooked, no. But I am coming around to the thinking he needs more time to get his control back. Still think he will get there but that could be a month down the road.

[roger]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Mahle threw 80 pitches yesterday and topped out at 95. Maeda threw 75 on Sunday. They're built up to be able to go deep into games. Whether you think they'll be good enough to go deep into games without giving up runs is a different thing. They have the arm stamina to do it right now. Ober doesn't. That's my point. I don't believe Ober has cracked 50 pitches in an outing yet, but it's possible I missed one.

If they redo Maeda's contract it doesn't matter which order they put them in. But it'd be a real bad look for the org to piggyback them and not start Maeda who has millions of dollars tied into getting starts. I don't care what order they go in, but if you want to be able to get deals signed with incentives in them in the future you can't torpedo the player's ability to reach their incentives right out of the gate in a season.

And I think that's a highly debatable answer right now. Ober has looked great in short stints so far. But short starts don't help the Twins win games over the long-haul of the season. If Ober is on the opening day roster, Pagan is their most likely multi-inning reliever. Any of us want him getting a bunch of innings early because Ober can't throw more than 3 or 4 innings a start? Mahle's arm has looked completely fine, and he looked sharp to start yesterday, but lost some control as he went. Pretty normal for spring as he builds up. But not the most ideal situation. Maeda has looked rusty for sure. I think Mahle is an obvious answer for a rotation spot. The other 2 have real pluses and minuses right now.

Just checked Ober's outings this spring.  He has been in three games, pitching 1 inning and 2 innings in the first two.  He pitched 3 innings in his last start, but that was on the 14th (10 days ago).  Am guessing that he probably made an appearance in a minor league game several days ago as not throwing for 10 days would be unusual.

Also saw that Maeda came in today in relief against the Yankees.  Maybe they are setting them up with Ober being the starter and Maeda in relief?  Maybe someone who is down there knows if Ober threw in a game on the back fields, likely 5 days ago and again today.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Do you think the same things regarding being handed a starting spot aren’t essentially all the same for Maeda? I like both of them…..,don’t think Maeda getting rocked in Spring Training & walking 7 guys in 9 1/3 innings are great signals to hand him the ball every 5th day. High end velocity 89Mph - with not great control isn’t cool. BUT it’s Spring Training so maybe we need to cut him some slack?

Ober hasn’t thrown extended innings but apparently has been very effective.

Ober & Maeda are what they are & they aren’t going to morph into a traditional 6 inning, 105 pitch guy. Not before July. I think they both throw 3-4 plus innings & we piggyback them together. Ober has better stuff & would follow in mid-innings of Maeda’s starts. This fits each guy’s stamina at this point. Also, it essentially gives the Pen a rest day every 5th day. Allows for 7 man Pen.

Neither guy is going to start 32 times……(Lopez & Ryan) only a couple guys gave a chance to do that in ‘23.

 

Just saw Maeda finish up his 4th inning this afternoon v. Yankees & he looks fine. Sharp even! 92 Mph at his 60th pitch. Going to lean on the professionals and go with whatever they seem to think will work. There is no clean/clear answer - that’s why you play the games.

Good luck fellas - Go Twins!

[JD-TWINS]

35 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Nobody asked, but my expectations for Maeda are very low. Unless his command returns, he’s likely cooked. 

I’m with you………..however,………Looked OK today v. Yankees - good control - challenged Judge & Donaldson……his 60th pitch was at 92Mph. Gone out to mound to start his 5th inning of the day.

[stringer bell]

Maeda worked five innings and just over 70 pitches. He faced major league hitters and looked pretty good. I can't remember him ever throwing higher than 92 for the Twins and he hit that number a few times. Too many pitches out of the strike zone and probably too many too much over the plate. Honestly, I think there's a lot of rust to shake off, but I think he'll be fine. 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Bundy and Archer were awful, I have no idea how that's better.

As I said with Mahle's inconsistency & Maeda's lack of control puts up red flags right away which could have problems from the beginning. All of Bundy's & Archer's innings were quality & consistent until as I said they were over extended thus as I said they started to become inefficient and as I said if they were adequately supported with long relief & not over extended they could have maintain their proficiency. Bundy never had a strong arm & Archer was still recovering from a long absence & shoulder surgery. That should have been taken into account at all times, instead of them trying to bail out management's mistake of over using short relief. Bundy, Archer, Ober & Winder had to pay the consequences.

All this negativity about their production comes from all this negative hype that had blown the situation way out of proportion w/o even trying to understand the condition that existed. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

With this logic, and I am not saying it is wrong, why are the Twins even bothering trying to make Ober a starter. If he isn't given a chance this year to prove he can stay healthy as a starter and it might take months to ramp up, won't they go into 24 with the same questions on him?

I would like Ober in the majors if he is one of the best 13 pitchers they have. It shouldn't be that hard to get him enough work to be close to stretched out or enough innings to be valuable. Now if the Twins don't think he is one of the best 13 send him down and use him as a backup plan, buts lets not talk about him being a future rotation piece for this team. Next year he will be 28 to start and 29 in July and if history tells us anything he will most likely be starting the down side of his career.

I want him in the bigs, too. I think he's one of the 13 best pitchers and he's earned a spot. That spot just wouldn't be the opening day rotation for me. Ramping him up over the first 2 or 3 months is to keep his inning total manageable. They're not going to take him from 56 to 156 innings. 56 to 100 or 120ish is more plausible.

So either they can manage the number of appearances he makes, or the number of innings he pitches in those appearances. It's why I don't think the opening day rotation is the right place for him. But trying to get him to 100-120 innings pitched without any real IL stints this year keeps him on the table for the rotation in 2024. I think it's worth that gamble to try. But the first sign that he can't hold up this year would have me just putting him in the pen. A 2 inning arm out of the pen is still a useful player. 

[Mike Sixel]

50 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

As I said with Mahle's inconsistency & Maeda's lack of control puts up red flags right away which could have problems from the beginning. All of Bundy's & Archer's innings were quality & consistent until as I said they were over extended thus as I said they started to become inefficient and as I said if they were adequately supported with long relief & not over extended they could have maintain their proficiency. Bundy never had a strong arm & Archer was still recovering from a long absence & shoulder surgery. That should have been taken into account at all times, instead of them trying to bail out management's mistake of over using short relief. Bundy, Archer, Ober & Winder had to pay the consequences.

All this negativity about their production comes from all this negative hype that had blown the situation way out of proportion w/o even trying to understand the condition that existed. 

blown out of proportion? They were not even close to good last year. I don't know how that's debatable? I must be reading wrong, or I'm distracted? 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I like this game better when I'm standing at the counter at Arby's...

But if I'm standing at the counter at a baseball game, I have to go with a 6-man rotation or piggyback Ober/Maeda as @chpettit19suggested.

Mozzarella sticks and a smokehouse brisket. Unless they have the orange creme shake, in which case I choose that over the sticks. Gotta go with the limited-time offer. 

[IndianaTwin]

Honest question -- lots of folks suggesting the piggyback option. Are there any examples of teams doing this for a prolonged time (even 5+ times through the rotation)?

 

[South Dakota Tom]

Regarding the OP, I think it is clearly Maeda and Mahle over Ober to start the season.  Ober, along with Headrick, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Winder (not sure across the board), Balazovic, maybe Festa, Canterino, Paddock, Raya later in the year.  Any or all of those will probably be needed during the season.

My thinking with Maeda is slightly different, however, and that was before he pitched today in relief.  As we have all RH starting pitching, I think it is vital to change up styles.  Maeda clearly throws a different style than the others - a little less heat, a little more junk, more off-speed.  I think everyone likes 95 mph heat and a slider, but you can't throw that every day in a 3- or 4-game series and expect good results.  Always felt that having at least one junkballer in the rotation throws the other team off.  Same strategy applies to the usage of relievers - why bring in a clone of the starter (or even the last reliever that a certain portion of the lineup faced last time through) if you can change them up?

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I want him in the bigs, too. I think he's one of the 13 best pitchers and he's earned a spot. That spot just wouldn't be the opening day rotation for me. Ramping him up over the first 2 or 3 months is to keep his inning total manageable. They're not going to take him from 56 to 156 innings. 56 to 100 or 120ish is more plausible.

So either they can manage the number of appearances he makes, or the number of innings he pitches in those appearances. It's why I don't think the opening day rotation is the right place for him. But trying to get him to 100-120 innings pitched without any real IL stints this year keeps him on the table for the rotation in 2024. I think it's worth that gamble to try. But the first sign that he can't hold up this year would have me just putting him in the pen. A 2 inning arm out of the pen is still a useful player. 

You are correct. Maeda is way more built up than Ober - he threw 70+ pitches today.  

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

blown out of proportion? They were not even close to good last year. I don't know how that's debatable? I must be reading wrong, or I'm distracted? 

We suffered consequences from a terrible BP right away which effected the rotation with early injuries to Ober later Winder with Ryan & Gray also some IL visits towards the end of the season Archer landed there, Bundy & Archer had more problems with inefficiencies from  being  over stretched.

Bundy before he was being over extended

Rk Gcar Gtm Date Tm   Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA                                                                   1 162 4 Apr 11 MIN   SEA W,4-0 GS-5 W(1-0) 99 5.0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0.00                                                                   2 163 10 Apr 18 MIN @ BOS W,8-3 GS-6 W(2-0) 6 5.1 5 1 1 0 6 0 0 0.87                                                                   3 164 15 Apr 23 MIN   CHW W,9-2 GS-5 W(3-0) 4 5.0 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 0.59

Archer before he was over extended

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA
1	219	5	Apr 12	MIN		LAD	L,2-7	GS-4		99	4.0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0.00
2	220	11	Apr 19	MIN	@	KCR	L,3-4	GS-5		6	4.1	4	2	2	3	5	1	0	2.16
3	221	16	Apr 24	MIN		CHW	W,6-4	GS-3		4	3.0	3	2	2	3	2	1	0	3.18
4	222	21	Apr 30	MIN	@	TBR	W,9-1	GS-4		5	4.0	2	1	1	3	4	1	0	2.93

What I've been saying is that (even with short to practically no ST) Bundy & Archer pitched quality & consistent innings. With a full ST, I'm not seeing much consistency from Mahle or Maeda. So if you're expecting Maeda, Mahle or Ober to carry the full rotation load (while neglecting long relief again), the results could be very well be worse.

I'm not saying that Bundy or Archer results weren't very disappointing, they were. I'm saying that if we ignore those conditions that caused those results. This year results would be worse.

 

 

[MABB1959]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not trying to underestimate those performers. I think Correa is one of those performers. But I don't think his desire is to maximize the Twins wins in April (which I don't think Ober being in the rotation even does, by the way) at the expense of wins in June, or maximize their wins in 2023 at the expense of their wins in 2024-2030.

Taking all these other factors into account (incentives, minor league options, effect on rest of players by having player A start instead of player B, etc.) when making a decision about opening day roster isn't going against a "purity of heart" test of any kind. There are legitimate reasons why Ober shouldn't be handed a spot in a 5 man rotation that aren't some devious business strategy. Him not being able to top 50 pitches is a legitimate baseball reason to not have him in an opening day rotation.

That has nothing to do with ego (I'd argue there's very few people on the planet who's ego doesn't play a role in almost every decision they make even if it's subconscious) or anything like that. There's no reason to expect Bailey Ober to top 100 innings by much this year. Definitely can't expect him to top 120. Over 32 starts that'd be less than 4 innings a start. That is a legitimate baseball reason to not have him in your opening day rotation. I don't get why we should ignore that because he's dominated 6 innings in 3 spring training games.

Aren't April wins just as valuable as July/August?

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We suffered consequences from a terrible BP right away which effected the rotation with early injuries to Ober later Winder with Ryan & Gray also some IL visits towards the end of the season Archer landed there, Bundy & Archer had more problems with inefficiencies from  being  over stretched.

Bundy before he was being over extended

Rk Gcar Gtm Date Tm   Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA                                                                   1 162 4 Apr 11 MIN   SEA W,4-0 GS-5 W(1-0) 99 5.0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0.00                                                                   2 163 10 Apr 18 MIN @ BOS W,8-3 GS-6 W(2-0) 6 5.1 5 1 1 0 6 0 0 0.87                                                                   3 164 15 Apr 23 MIN   CHW W,9-2 GS-5 W(3-0) 4 5.0 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 0.59

Archer before he was over extended

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA
1	219	5	Apr 12	MIN		LAD	L,2-7	GS-4		99	4.0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0.00
2	220	11	Apr 19	MIN	@	KCR	L,3-4	GS-5		6	4.1	4	2	2	3	5	1	0	2.16
3	221	16	Apr 24	MIN		CHW	W,6-4	GS-3		4	3.0	3	2	2	3	2	1	0	3.18
4	222	21	Apr 30	MIN	@	TBR	W,9-1	GS-4		5	4.0	2	1	1	3	4	1	0	2.93

What I've been saying is that (even with short to practically no ST) Bundy & Archer pitched quality & consistent innings. With a full ST, I'm not seeing much consistency from Mahle or Maeda. So if you're expecting Maeda, Mahle or Ober to carry the full rotation load (while neglecting long relief again), the results could be very well be worse.

I'm not saying that Bundy or Archer results weren't very disappointing, they were. I'm saying that if we ignore those conditions that caused those results. This year results would be worse.

 

 

Over extended? Bundy pitched into the 7th inning 1 time last year. Your data set of "before he was over extended" was 3 starts. If having to start 3 games, with extra rest between the first 2, is "over extending" him he shouldn't have been in the rotation to start. Because the next 2 starts after his first 3 went 6 earned in 6 and 9 earned in 3.2. So 5 starts into his season he already had 2 blowup games. That doesn't match my definition of "quality" or "consistent."

As for "over extending" Archer, he made it into the 6th inning 0 times last year. Not once did he go more than 5 innings. He only made it into the 5th 10 times in 25 starts. If 4 innings a start is "over extending" him he wasn't a "quality" or "consistent" starter. I don't even know how you can try to argue that. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Aren't April wins just as valuable as July/August?

I'm not going to argue that with you. Multiple instances of teams below .500 through the first 3, and even 4, months of the season were provided to you yesterday. Yes, every game counts as 1 game in the standings. But that's not even what my point was.

My point was that the actions you take in April have an impact on the actions you can take later in the year. Actions you take in 2023 have an impact on the actions you can take in 2024. What you do now effects what you can do in the future. Doing things to maximize your precious April win total can have a negative effect on your ability to win games in July/August. The goal isn't to win the most games you can in April, it's to win the most games you can out of 162. Burning out the bullpen again by putting Ober in a rotation of either 5 or 6 guys and not having him be able to complete more than 3 or 4 innings would not be the best strategy for maximizing the Twins win total over 162 games, in my opinion.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Over extended? Bundy pitched into the 7th inning 1 time last year. Your data set of "before he was over extended" was 3 starts. If having to start 3 games, with extra rest between the first 2, is "over extending" him he shouldn't have been in the rotation to start. Because the next 2 starts after his first 3 went 6 earned in 6 and 9 earned in 3.2. So 5 starts into his season he already had 2 blowup games. That doesn't match my definition of "quality" or "consistent."

As for "over extending" Archer, he made it into the 6th inning 0 times last year. Not once did he go more than 5 innings. He only made it into the 5th 10 times in 25 starts. If 4 innings a start is "over extending" him he wasn't a "quality" or "consistent" starter. I don't even know how you can try to argue that. 

You can't say if any SP doesn't go 7 on a regular basis, that he's not over extended, each player has a profile, As I said before Bundy doesn't have the arm to pitch many 6 innings games, that's his profile and Archer, w/ practically no ST recovering from long absence and a shoulder surgery, I would not profile him as starter but as "opener" (who throws 3-5 innings) so if you are trying to make pitch over that you are over extending him.

'22 off season FO expressed that they wanted to piggy-back even before they signed Archer. That's what should have happened but it didn't. So I don't blame either of them.

As I showed before, Bundy and Archer pitched consistent quality innings before the fiasco in the BP, when they were pitching in their profile. The problem was never resolved so everything after that I don't count against them.

Let me give you an example; LaRussa has the same ideology as you. He wanted Rondon to pitch 7+ innings every game, he couldn't and got injured. Not measuring up to his standard, he let Rodon go. No one wanted him (I advocated to sign him if we dial back on his innings) until SF signed him on a show me contract. SF pitched him inside his profile where he averaged about 5 innings a game. Now many pundits deem him an ace. 

Now I disregarded Rodon's '21 season because he was pitching beyond his profile, as I'm disregarding Bundy's & Archer's innings that were pitched beyond their profiles. A side note: I'd have signed Rodon (if he'd be used correctly) before Bundy & Archer but Bundy & Archer was the hand we were dealt.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You can't say if any SP doesn't go 7 on a regular basis, that he's not over extended, each player has a profile, As I said before Bundy doesn't have the arm to pitch many 6 innings games, that's his profile and Archer, w/ practically no ST recovering from long absence and a shoulder surgery, I would not profile him as starter but as "opener" (who throws 3-5 innings) so if you are trying to make pitch over that you are over extending him.

'22 off season FO expressed that they wanted to piggy-back even before they signed Archer. That's what should have happened but it didn't. So the I don't blame either of them.

As I showed before, Bundy and Archer pitched consistent quality innings before the fiasco in the BP, when they were pitching in their profile. The problem was never resolved so everything after that I don't count against them.

Let me give you an example; LaRussa has the same ideology as you. He wanted Rondon to pitch 7+ innings every game, he couldn't and got injured. Not measuring up to his standard, he let Rodon go. No one wanted him (I advocated to sign him if we dial back on his innings) until SF signed him on a show me contract. SF pitched him inside his profile where he averaged about 5 innings a game. Now many pundits deem him an ace. 

Now I disregarded Rodon's '21 season because he was pitching beyond his profile, as I'm disregarding Bundy's & Archer's innings that were pitched beyond their profiles. A side note: I'd have signed Rodon (if he'd be used correctly) before Bundy & Archer but Bundy & Archer was the hand we were dealt.

Before what fiasco? Cuz you showed 3 Bundy starts, and 4 Archer starts. You showed the month of April. There is absolutely no credibility in your argument that any "bullpen fiasco" over extended Dylan Bundy. He didn't make it through his 4th start without falling apart. I mean you didn't even get out of the first month of the season and you've claimed they were over extended. 3 starts isn't over extending anyone. 

Carlos Rodon threw 178 innings last year. That was 32nd most in all of major league baseball. That wasn't "beyond his profile?" I'm not buying any of this. 3 starts of 5, 5.1, and 5 innings were too much for Bundy who you say "doesn't have the arm to pitch many 6 inning games," and Carlos Rodon averaging just over 5.5 innings in 2021 was too much for him, but averaging 5.75, and throwing the 32nd most innings in baseball, in 2022 was within "his profile." Yeah, not of that tracks.

Edit to add: I haven't given any "ideology." I've simply refuted your idea of overextending these pitchers. You say Archer was only good to go for 3-5 innings at a time. He never went over that range. Not 1 single time all season. Yet you say they over extended him by literally doing exactly what you say he was capable of. You can't have it both ways. Bundy you say couldn't go 6 innings and provide a sample size of him not going 6 innings at all and say it was over extending him. You can't have it both ways. They were within your "profiles" of them and still weren't good. Your point just doesn't have any factual standing.

[Doctor Gast]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Before what fiasco?

Do you have such a short memory, chpettit? Just before our '22 season we traded our only proven RP, leaving us with us with a failing Duffy & Pagan to close? Smith couldn't handle the extra innings so he was gone? W/o long relief we had to rely exclusively on unproven short relief (fortunately Duran, Jax & later Theilbar worked out) thus overtaxing them. Don't you remember all the games we lost because of it? I can't believe it! No wonder you have this idea.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

Do you have such a short memory, chpettit? Just before our '22 season we traded our only proven RP, leaving us with us with a failing Duffy & Pagan to close? Smith couldn't handle the extra innings so he was gone? W/o long relief we had to rely exclusively on unproven short relief (fortunately Duran, Jax & later Theilbar worked out) thus overtaxing them. Don't you remember all the games we lost because of it? I can't believe it!

I remember all of that. But you're trying to tie that to over extending Bundy and Archer. That's the disconnect. You're claiming the bullpen fiasco caused Bundy and Archer to both be over extended before the end of April. 

You've chosen the timeframe. It's April. The Twins bullpen threw 84.2 innings in April of 2022. That was 16th fewest in baseball. They'd had 65 appearances. That was the 2nd fewest in the entire league. Your argument doesn't follow the actual happenings of the season. That's my point.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We suffered consequences from a terrible BP right away which effected the rotation with early injuries to Ober later Winder with Ryan & Gray also some IL visits towards the end of the season Archer landed there, Bundy & Archer had more problems with inefficiencies from  being  over stretched.

Bundy before he was being over extended

Rk Gcar Gtm Date Tm   Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA                                                                   1 162 4 Apr 11 MIN   SEA W,4-0 GS-5 W(1-0) 99 5.0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0.00                                                                   2 163 10 Apr 18 MIN @ BOS W,8-3 GS-6 W(2-0) 6 5.1 5 1 1 0 6 0 0 0.87                                                                   3 164 15 Apr 23 MIN   CHW W,9-2 GS-5 W(3-0) 4 5.0 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 0.59

Archer before he was over extended

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA
1	219	5	Apr 12	MIN		LAD	L,2-7	GS-4		99	4.0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0.00
2	220	11	Apr 19	MIN	@	KCR	L,3-4	GS-5		6	4.1	4	2	2	3	5	1	0	2.16
3	221	16	Apr 24	MIN		CHW	W,6-4	GS-3		4	3.0	3	2	2	3	2	1	0	3.18
4	222	21	Apr 30	MIN	@	TBR	W,9-1	GS-4		5	4.0	2	1	1	3	4	1	0	2.93

What I've been saying is that (even with short to practically no ST) Bundy & Archer pitched quality & consistent innings. With a full ST, I'm not seeing much consistency from Mahle or Maeda. So if you're expecting Maeda, Mahle or Ober to carry the full rotation load (while neglecting long relief again), the results could be very well be worse.

I'm not saying that Bundy or Archer results weren't very disappointing, they were. I'm saying that if we ignore those conditions that caused those results. This year results would be worse.

 

 

I don't think this was any kind of mismanagement at all. This is small sample sizes with regression to the mean coming after that. Further, having starter that can give more innings will mitigate the "need" for effective long relief. Having one guy capable of throwing three innings (perhaps Sands or Hoffman) and having 2-3 capable of going two should cover an occasional short start. Having a bullpen of eight with 3-4 guys slated for the high-leverage spots can and should work. 

When he was effective, Bundy was living on a razor's edge. He didn't have enough swing and miss or ability to get soft contact. Archer could be effective (about half the time), but he was a constant strain on the bullpen. It only figured that Baldelli wouldn't or couldn't allow either of those players much rope.

[wabene]

^^^^ yes and having Bundy and Archer back to back in the rotation was an unnecessary extra strain on the pen. 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

You are correct. Maeda is way more built up than Ober - he threw 70+ pitches today.  

Yes, that is two straight outings for Maeda where he threw more than 70 pitches. If he's effective, he should be able to go 6 in his first start.