How Good Can Carlos Correa Be in 2023?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins shocked the world when they landed Carlos Correa following the lockout before the 2022 Major League Baseball season. After multiple twists and turns this offseason, they did it again, this time locking him up for at least the next six years. How good could he be for this team in 2023?

Image courtesy of Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News / USA TODAY NETWORK

Last year, Carlos Correa found himself in Twins camp following a lengthy lockout and an odd free agency process. He was thrust into action while only getting a handful of game at-bats. Despite the challenges, he parlayed it into a successful first year in Minnesota.

Across 136 games, held back only by an unfortunate hit by pitch and a bout with Covid, Correa posted an .834 OPS, which translated to a 140 OPS+. He blasted 22 homers in his first year calling Target Field home, and while the defensive metrics were slightly down on him, he played a solid shortstop.

However, if you watched the Twins consistently last year, you know there were stretches where it seemed Correa got lost. What if a complete spring training and traditional lead-up to the season unlocks a new level?

The reality is that Correa could be embarking on a path that leads him to the Hall of Fame. His career trajectory is already impressive, and continued production for the Twins will have him in the conversation when he hangs up his cleats. Still in the prime of his career at just 28 years old, this should be another high-producing season for the superstar shortstop.

Correa’s 140 OPS+ last year trailed only his 155 OPS+ during 2017 when he was named to his first All-Star team. Last season was odd in that offense was down due to MLB again tampering with the baseball. We don’t yet know how this season’s ball will play, and we don’t know to what extent it will be manipulated on a per-game basis. What we can look into is Correa’s production as a whole.

Through his first 24 games last season, Correa owned just a .693 OPS. It’s unsurprising that a player would start slow, even less so when playing in a cold-temperature state like Minnesota. His next 47 games culminated in an impressive .876 OPS and saw the former Houston Astros post nearly a .400 on-base percentage. 

Correa hit the skids from the end of July into early September, though. While teammates were dropping like flies, he remained in the lineup but had little protection. He hit just three homers in his next 36 games and owned an ugly .695 OPS with just seven total extra-base hits.

During the final month, over a span of 29 games, Correa did everything he could to produce for the Twins. Correa posted an impressive 1.032 OPS while batting a whopping .370. He had 15 extra-base hits, of which seven left the yard, and he was arguably the best hitter in baseball during that time.

Baseball is a sport of streaks, and while you will have cold streaks, Correa keeping his trends pointing up could go a long way in 2023. ZiPS and Steamer projections have him slated for slightly diminished OPS marks with two additional home runs. However, ZiPS sees the fWAR tally coming in at 5.9 after being 4.4 last season, which certainly accounts for enhanced defensive production.

For a guy who has twice topped a .900 OPS in his career, it’s not unthinkable to believe he could do so again this season. The projection systems seem a bit light regarding how offense may change this year, and Correa has more comfort going for him in 2023. He likes hitting in Target Field, and knowing it’s his home for the long haul could bring on an excellent show this summer.

How high do you expect Correa’s stock to rise this season, and where is a reasonable expectation for his offensive production to check in at?

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[Doctor Gast]

I expect Correa to be healthy, ready to take on the shift ban challenge, prove to teams that they missed out, show the Twins by example what it looks like to be a winner and to feel even more at home at Target Field. Add all things up, he'll have a great season both offensively & defensively.

[Dman]

I just want to see a bit more consistency.  He was pretty brutal to start the season last year certainly not a difference maker and by the time he got hot it didn't matter.  I am hoping the swing changes help him produce at a higher level as he is a very important part of this team and we are going to need to lean on his bat at times.  He has proven he can do it in the past and he seems really focused this year.  I like the odds that he becomes the alpha this team needs.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that Correa is happy, healthy, and comfortable coming into the year, which is already a switch from last year after signing a disappointing (length) contract at the last minute and having a short spring training to get his head, bat, and glove right.  As a competitive athlete, he also probably would like to show the world (or at least NY and SF) that they made a big mistake by not signing him.  All of those things point to a player who is likely to have a very good season, barring injuries.  The Correa at the end of last season would be nice, but I would happily take the one from  May and June.  

[chpettit19]

45 minutes ago, Dman said:

I just want to see a bit more consistency.  He was pretty brutal to start the season last year certainly not a difference maker and by the time he got hot it didn't matter.  I am hoping the swing changes help him produce at a higher level as he is a very important part of this team and we are going to need to lean on his bat at times.  He has proven he can do it in the past and he seems really focused this year.  I like the odds that he becomes the alpha this team needs.

I don't know if you read the article about him and Popkins on The Athletic, but it was fascinating. Sounds like he spent most of last year fixing swing changes he'd made over the offseason. I'm hoping him not having to do that leads to his best season yet. Come into the season already feeling good in the box and hit the ground running. Very excited to see what he can do with the stick this year.

His defense will be interesting to watch. Not being able to play as deep as he'd like will effect him, but how much? He's never been fast, but has been successful defensively because of his positioning, size, and arm. He can't take advantage of all that as well anymore so it'll be interesting to see how he looks now. Depending on how Lee and Lewis look we could maybe see the Correa to third shift happen sooner than expected. Not sure how open to that he'd be, but will be interesting to see how the rules effect him.

[tony&rodney]

Carlos Correa is a very good baseball player who can consistently produce both in the field and at the plate. I expect him to be the starting shortstop for the American League All Star Game.

[Dman]

57 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know if you read the article about him and Popkins on The Athletic, but it was fascinating. Sounds like he spent most of last year fixing swing changes he'd made over the offseason. I'm hoping him not having to do that leads to his best season yet. Come into the season already feeling good in the box and hit the ground running. Very excited to see what he can do with the stick this year.

His defense will be interesting to watch. Not being able to play as deep as he'd like will effect him, but how much? He's never been fast, but has been successful defensively because of his positioning, size, and arm. He can't take advantage of all that as well anymore so it'll be interesting to see how he looks now. Depending on how Lee and Lewis look we could maybe see the Correa to third shift happen sooner than expected. Not sure how open to that he'd be, but will be interesting to see how the rules effect him.

I did read that article in the Athletic and I am interested to see if it all carries over.  I agree with you he looks like he is gonna be "more" ready to start the year this year but I am still just cautiously optimistic as he seems to have a history of being a slow starter on offense and I remember a point mid season being very disappointed with his offensive production.  Hoping the new swing is .900 OPS ready but not ready to be a "true" believer just yet.  It is gonna take some time to shake off some of last year for me.

I also agree with your concerns on his defense but I still feel positive about him being able to play there..  I realize he doesn't have the speed to cover some extra ground other shortstops can but I still think he is so strong at fielding and throwing that he will stick there.  I never realized just how important getting set and making good strong throws is for a shortstop.  I always felt range was more important but too often even if they can get to a ball that maybe another can't if you can't set and make a strong throw it is a hit or worse error anyway. 

I am still bullish on his defense but yeah this year with the rule change could really change my opinion.  It is gonna be an interesting year where making contact is going to be more important than it has been in a while.  I really, really like Correa and I think he is key to the success of this team but the swing and rule changes really make it hard to pinpoint how that will all work out IMO.

[Bodie]

28 years old.

Just a normal career arc (the upward curve of production before normal wear and tear, and simple slowing due to age, before the inevitable falloff- not specific stats) point to him having some of his best years of his career.

He hasn't a history of injury that would knock him off that typical career arc.  I can see 2-3 years where he plays as well as anytime in his career!

[theBOMisthebomb]

9 hours ago, Dman said:

I just want to see a bit more consistency.  He was pretty brutal to start the season last year certainly not a difference maker and by the time he got hot it didn't matter.  I am hoping the swing changes help him produce at a higher level as he is a very important part of this team and we are going to need to lean on his bat at times.  He has proven he can do it in the past and he seems really focused this year.  I like the odds that he becomes the alpha this team needs.

I'm not sure where the narrative of 'Correa didn't get hot in 2022 until the Twins were out of it' started. Here's what my research says happened. If you have evidence to the contrary, please enlighten me. 

I believe it's reasonable that the Twins were still in the divisional race through the final game against Cleveland on September 19. The Guardians won 11-4 that day to move 7 games ahead of the Twins in the standings, effectively ending the Twins season. Correa went 2 for 3, ending the day with a .285 average and .829 OPS. His season ending line was a .291 average and .834 OPS. In the 15 remaining games after September 19, Correa had 1 HR, 4 doubles, and 6 RBI - not exactly padding those stats during garbage time as suggested. FYI, the Twins started that 5 game Cleveland series on September 16 behind Cleveland in the standings by 4 games, so I'm not sure how you could have counted the Twins out of the race before then.  

[Dman]

15 minutes ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

I'm not sure where the narrative of 'Correa didn't get hot in 2022 until the Twins were out of it' started. Here's what my research says happened. If you have evidence to the contrary, please enlighten me. 

I believe it's reasonable that the Twins were still in the divisional race through the final game against Cleveland on September 19. The Guardians won 11-4 that day to move 7 games ahead of the Twins in the standings, effectively ending the Twins season. Correa went 2 for 3, ending the day with a .285 average and .829 OPS. His season ending line was a .291 average and .834 OPS. In the 15 remaining games after September 19, Correa had 1 HR, 4 doubles, and 6 RBI - not exactly padding those stats during garbage time as suggested. FYI, the Twins started that 5 game Cleveland series on September 16 behind Cleveland in the standings by 4 games, so I'm not sure how you could have counted the Twins out of the race before then.  

I probably mis-stated my position but in April he had a 600 OPS in July he had another 600 OPS. He had a good May but out for a while and the overall numbers still were not good by May.  He had an all star June though 1.000 OPS only to sink back down in July to a 600 OPS.   So one elite month and a shortened good month and two bad months left a sour taste for me. 

I mean I think in July there was talk that Nick Gordon might have a better bat or certainly was getting too close to Correa's level of production at the time.  Correa righted the ship in August even better in September and very good in the few October games to lift his overall numbers well above most players on the Twins team.  Still he was in trouble at the end of July.  Not the production you would want for a 30M per year player IMO.

I just feel that if he wasn't grounding into double plays and being a near automatic out those first couple of months maybe we win a few more early games. July was an important month to gain ground and he was bad that month as well. Still with all the injuries maybe all was lost no matter what.  Just saying by the time Correa's bat really came around the team was already decimated by injuries it was too late to make the difference it could have made early in the season.

I think at the end of July there was talk he might need to stay with Twins another year because the number weren't that great offensively or defensively for a guy who wanted 30M per year.  Kudos to Correa as he rode those late numbers to dispel any issues with the bat but it was far from easy sailing IMO.  And yes in the end it came too little to late as the Twins didn't even make the playoffs.

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, Dman said:

I probably mis-stated my position but in April he had a 600 OPS in July he had another 600 OPS. He had a good May but out for a while and the overall numbers still were not good by May.  He had an all star June though 1.000 OPS only to sink back down in July to a 600 OPS.   So one elite month and a shortened good month and two bad months left a sour taste for me. 

I mean I think in July there was talk that Nick Gordon might have a better bat or certainly was getting too close to Correa's level of production at the time.  Correa righted the ship in August even better in September and very good in the few October games to lift his overall numbers well above most players on the Twins team.  Still he was in trouble at the end of July.  Not the production you would want for a 30M per year player IMO.

I just feel that if he wasn't grounding into double plays and being a near automatic out those first couple of months maybe we win a few more early games. July was an important month to gain ground and he was bad that month as well. Still with all the injuries maybe all was lost no matter what.  Just saying by the time Correa's bat really came around the team was already decimated by injuries it was too late to make the difference it could have made early in the season.

I think at the end of July there was talk he might need to stay with Twins another year because the number weren't that great offensively or defensively for a guy who wanted 30M per year.  Kudos to Correa as he rode those late numbers to dispel any issues with the bat but it was far from easy sailing IMO.  And yes in the end it came too little to late as the Twins didn't even make the playoffs.

I think you're cherry-picking a little here, calling out his struggles in certain months and then using his aggregate in others to downplay his successes. Correa had a slow start, but he was great in May and June. His first half of the season the OPS was .803; the second half was .866. He had essentially 2 months where he struggled at the plate a bit and 4 months where he was good to great. Those august and september games absolutely mattered: the Twins were tied for the division lead on Sept 4th (BTW, Correa had a double and HR in a win against the ChiSox that day).

Not his fault the injuries got to be insurmountable and we were starting guys like Jake Cave and Mark Contreras in the OF and Sandy Leon was catching. He did his best to carry the team offensively when everyone else was dropping like flies.

I think Correa is going to have a very very good year. all-star quality. I expect the defensive stats to tick back up a bit (I think he's a player with a lot of pride and we know he looks at advanced stats) but I also think he's going to be damn good at the plate. I think the numbers will be pretty similar to last season, but with a bit more power behind it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he compiles an MVP caliber season. He's talented, driven, and focused. He's a really smart player who looks for flaws in his game and figures out how to eradicate them. And I think he'll want to stick it to SF & NY a little.

[terrydactyls]

On 3/16/2023 at 9:50 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I expect Correa to be healthy, ready to take on the shift ban challenge, prove to teams that they missed out, show the Twins by example what it looks like to be a winner and to feel even more at home at Target Field. Add all things up, he'll have a great season both offensively & defensively.

For one of the few times that I remember, I agree with you 100%.  Could be a huge year.

[Dman]

20 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think you're cherry-picking a little here, calling out his struggles in certain months and then using his aggregate in others to downplay his successes. Correa had a slow start, but he was great in May and June. His first half of the season the OPS was .803; the second half was .866. He had essentially 2 months where he struggled at the plate a bit and 4 months where he was good to great. Those august and september games absolutely mattered: the Twins were tied for the division lead on Sept 4th (BTW, Correa had a double and HR in a win against the ChiSox that day).

Not his fault the injuries got to be insurmountable and we were starting guys like Jake Cave and Mark Contreras in the OF and Sandy Leon was catching. He did his best to carry the team offensively when everyone else was dropping like flies.

I think Correa is going to have a very very good year. all-star quality. I expect the defensive stats to tick back up a bit (I think he's a player with a lot of pride and we know he looks at advanced stats) but I also think he's going to be damn good at the plate. I think the numbers will be pretty similar to last season, but with a bit more power behind it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he compiles an MVP caliber season. He's talented, driven, and focused. He's a really smart player who looks for flaws in his game and figures out how to eradicate them. And I think he'll want to stick it to SF & NY a little.

I am banking on him being all star caliber and have stated such myself. Still there is uncertainty with swing changes and rule changes IMO.

Not gonna lie, Yes I did cherry pick to a degree but it was more to show the general feeling at the time that a lot of people on this board were feeling around the end of July. He wasn't helping as much as we thought he would through the end of July and I was talking about the early numbers as my initial statement was he didn't help help as much as hoped through the end of July. He had 2 bad months one and a half good months. Baseball reference shows his end of July OPS at .783 and it would go all the way down to .764 August 12th.  I get that isn't horrible or anything but for a 30M dollar player I think most of us were expecting more the first 4 months of the season.

I also generally don't trust September numbers all that much as teams that are out of it aren't always playing their best players or have traded away some of their best players and we play more games in our division which is weaker than most so numbers can get inflated IMO.  I get that a hit is hit no matter the competition but like I said I have a tougher time trusting those numbers as carry overs.

He really turned things up a notch after August 12th and had a really good year overall.  I am only stating things were not looking all that great at the end of July last year.  I hope his swing change is for real as I stated above we need him to carry this team from the start as he and Buxton are likely the heart and soul of this team. We need them both to perform to get to the next level.