Best Bets for the 2023 Minnesota Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

By now, sports are synonymous with betting. Teams have partnerships with gambling outlets, and the money flowing from the outlets is beyond substantial. Certain feats are tied to individuals and teams each season, with the Twins having more than a few of intrigue this year. Looking at who should surpass expectations has always been fun.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

From a baseline perspective, the win total is a point of contention each year. While not predictive of standings in the vein that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA attempts, over/under win totals attempt to place a value on a team's overall ability. This season Bovada has the Minnesota Twins checking in at 83.5 wins while giving them equal odds (+150) to finish either first or second in the AL Central.

Ending with the win total, here are some thoughts on Twins over/under lines being offered for the 2023 season:

Byron Buxton HR Total - 27.5
Despite his speed, Byron Buxton’s best swing has always looked like it would produce more of a power hitter than someone that needed to steal bases. We have seen that play out in recent seasons, and despite playing just 92 games last year, he blasted 28 home runs. On a per-game basis, Buxton’s power is in line with Mike Trout and some of the best sluggers across all of baseball.

Minnesota would probably like to see Buck reign it in a bit more at the plate, leaning into a higher level of discipline. He will still run into his fair share of long balls, which comes down to the number of games he can remain healthy for. Hoping that this is the season for the fluky injuries to stop; Buxton playing anything north of 100 games should allow him to cruise by his home run total. It’s a risk betting on his health, but give me the over here.

Carlos Correa Batting Average - .280
Batting average is not the indication of results that it was once viewed as, but there is still plenty of value to be placed on it. Last season the Twins star shortstop hit .291 across 136 games. That included a significant slump during the middle of the season. He is a .279 career hitter and has hit over .280 just twice in his eight-year career.

I don’t think I’d touch this line, but I could certainly see an argument for the over. With the lack of a shift, Correa could see a few more hits fall, and he gets the benefit of a normal Spring Training where he can settle into his new home. Overall, I think Correa’s slash line trends more towards on-base and slugging, so while his OPS should rise, the batting average may fall. Give me the under on this one.

Pablo Lopez/Joe Ryan Wins - 10.5
Pitcher wins have very little value in and of themselves, but they will forever remain a tracked statistic. Last year, Rocco Baldelli was hamstrung with regard to how deep his starters could go in a game. That shouldn’t be the case, given the depth he has this year, and that should benefit the pitching staff as a whole. Joe Ryan led the club with 13 wins last year and shows up in this space for 2023.

Lopez was reason enough to trade Luis Arraez, and he is coming off a 10-win season of his own. In the Minnesota rotation, both players should be expected to have plenty of offensive backing, and a better bullpen should protect their leads. Eleven wins is a substantial number, but a good Minnesota team should have a couple of double-digit winners. I’m not sure these are the exact two, but I think at least one should get there. I’ll take the over on Lopez and let it be.

Minnesota Twins Wins - 83.5
Looking at the division, I think it’s fair to suggest that Minnesota is right there at the top. Cleveland didn’t do much to get better this offseason, and while they are the reigning champs, it may have been more to do with taking advantage of a situation. Chicago still strikes me as the roster to look out for, and while Pedro Grifol is better in charge than Tony La Russa, that may not be enough to vault them up.

Even if the Twins can’t grab the AL Central title again, and I wouldn’t bet against that, they should surpass 84 wins. This looks like a group that can fly past 90 and even a disastrous finish, as the walking wounded saw them win 78 last season. The pitching depth is there, and while the lineup looks different, this team is constructed to compete. I’m taking the over.

What are your favorite bets or over/under tallies for the 2023 Twins?

View full article

[miracleb]

The problem with these projections is that they (and the rest of us) need to try to factor in if the player will remain "healthy" the entire year.  If PECOTA "knew" that Buxton would be playing 150 games this year, his HR total WOULD be higher.  "Hope for the best....plan for the worst."

[Joey Self]

I keep in mind the adage that "horse sense is what keeps horses from betting on people." 

Why anyone would take any of these bets even up at this time of year is beyond my capability of understanding. 

JcS

[dxpavelka]

I'll take the over on wins, but barely.  They've helped their depth but haven't really done much to improve.

[rwilfong86]

If Lopez gets run support, I'm going over on the 10.5 wins.

[ziggy]

I bet the over in Las Vegas last month with the line at 78 1/2. I also bet them to win the central at plus 290, so almost 3 to 1. Buxton at 33 to 1 to win the league MVP.  Moral of my post is to shop around if you're going to place a bet. 

I would take to over on Lopez, Ryan and Buxton. Pass on Correa to answer the question.

[cHawk]

Byron Buxton Home Run Total - 27.5

Couldn't agree more with Ted that Buxton's availability throughout the season will determine whether or not he eclipses this mark. As stated in the article, Buxton (barely) surpassed 27.5 long balls in only 92 games in 2022. Logic would indicate that he should accomplish this again, provided he plays at least the same number of games; however, this is no certainty. Through the span of his 8-year career, he has played in approximately 49% of his team's games. Over the course of a 162 game season, that's approximately 79 games.

There's no obvious trend in the graph above, so it's most reasonable to take and predict the average (49%, i.e. 79 games in 2023). cHawk's pick: Under

Carlos Correa Batting Average - .280

Through the course of his career, Correa has a career .279 batting average. He has only eclipsed the .280 mark twice in 8 years. Based on these statistics, concur with Ted; it's clearly more logical to predict that he will not clear the mark of .280. cHawk's pick: Under

Joe Ryan Wins - 10.5

In Ryan's 27 starts last season, he successfully completed five innings in 19 of them (70% of the time). In the previously described instances, he amassed 13 wins; in summary, he recorded a win in 48% of his starts. This appears to be his floor in 2023. So long as Ryan amasses a minimum of approximately 25 starts, he will eclipse the mark. cHawk's pick: Over

Pablo Lopez Wins - 10.5

Lopez, unlike Ryan, has never amassed 11 wins in a season. In 2022, he successfully completed five innings in 25 of his 32 starts. It may surprise some that in those 25 starts, he totaled 10 non-decisions alongside 10 wins; i.e. he had a non-decision in 31% of his starts. This could very possibly be a product of Miami's less-than-stellar lineup, which totaled the sixth lowest wRC+ of any team in the league. The lineup which Lopez will be equipped with in 2023 should be much better than that Marlin's lineup, therefore Lopez's win total should increase from 2022, where he amassed 10 wins. cHawk's pick: Over

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Joey Self said:

I keep in mind the adage that "horse sense is what keeps horses from betting on people." 

Why anyone would take any of these bets even up at this time of year is beyond my capability of understanding. 

This is my philosophy as well, so I don't bet on sports. But I'll still take a position on these lines:

Buxton: over

Correa: pass (meaning my guess is right about where the line stands)

Lopez/Ryan: over on both

Team wins: over

[Peter]

I took twins over 84.5 wins as well division title at +185. They were +250 before-seeing this drop money is on twins to win division. With additions they made I really think both wagers win. Rocco is in contract year and I think he comes through with division title. 

[bighat]

15 hours ago, Joey Self said:

I keep in mind the adage that "horse sense is what keeps horses from betting on people." 

Why anyone would take any of these bets even up at this time of year is beyond my capability of understanding. 

JcS

That's why they call it gambling! There's a huge thrill associated with betting on sports, First off, the possibility of winning is much higher than buying a powerball ticket or even a scratch off. Secondly, you get to feel really, really smart when you win a sports bet. Lottery tickets and scratch-offs are pure luck, but picking a sports winner makes the gambler feel like they've got some special skills. And some gamblers do! 

The rest of us are just shark bait. And we know it. But it's fun to swim with the sharks from time to time. 

[darin617]

On 3/11/2023 at 9:04 AM, miracleb said:

The problem with these projections is that they (and the rest of us) need to try to factor in if the player will remain "healthy" the entire year.  If PECOTA "knew" that Buxton would be playing 150 games this year, his HR total WOULD be higher.  "Hope for the best....plan for the worst."

Or just look at his history and then you would know 150 games is almost impossible unless he accepts being a DH for well over half of the time.

[JD-TWINS]

Over, over, over…..

88 wins minimum

Lopez - 13 wins…….Ryan - 15 wins (starting against lesser competition)

Whether CC hits .272 or .289 doesn’t matter, those totals are maybe a 5 hit difference over the summer.

If Buxton gets 110 games in the batters box he’ll get 30 HR’s. Need to get him 50 games at DH, & hopefully 80 in CF.

[Joey Self]

On 3/12/2023 at 8:24 AM, bighat said:

That's why they call it gambling! There's a huge thrill associated with betting on sports, First off, the possibility of winning is much higher than buying a powerball ticket or even a scratch off. Secondly, you get to feel really, really smart when you win a sports bet. Lottery tickets and scratch-offs are pure luck, but picking a sports winner makes the gambler feel like they've got some special skills. And some gamblers do! 

The rest of us are just shark bait. And we know it. But it's fun to swim with the sharks from time to time. 

I heard a long time ago that if someone bets you that the Jack of Clubs will jump out of the deck of cards in their hand and squirt cider in your ear, don't take the bet unless you want to have an ear full of cider.  

I get the notion of the thrill, of being smarter than everyone else, etc.  But the props in this opening note are totally a guess at this point.  

JcS