Without looking it up, can you rank the speed of these Twins' outfielders?

[2wins87]

I will reveal the answer later, but for bonus points, can you rank all 5?

I was recently perusing some statcast defensive metrics for these guys, and their relative speeds were mostly not in the order I was expecting, and I don't think the differences are completely insignificant either.  I’m curious what others’ guesses are.

Part of what it shows is that there is more to outfield range than just speed.  The jump and route can be very important.

[Brad.dahlen]

I'll take a shot in the dark.

Wallner, Gallo, Celestino, Kepler, Larnach

 

[CRF]

My extremely uneducated guess...Gallo, Kepler, Celestino, Wallner, and Larnach.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I will reveal the answer later, but for bonus points, can you rank all 5?

I was recently perusing some statcast defensive metrics for these guys, and their relative speeds were mostly not in the order I was expecting, and I don't think the differences are completely insignificant either.  I’m curious what others’ guesses are.

Part of what it shows is that there is more to outfield range than just speed.  The jump and route can be very important.

Kepler - Gallo - Walner - Celestino - Larnach

The guys that count are the CF’s……..Taylor - Buxton - Gordon!!

Celestino & Walner can race in St Paul

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kepler - Gallo - Walner - Celestino - Larnach

The guys that count are the CF’s……..Taylor - Buxton - Gordon!!

Celestino & Walner can race in St Paul

Taylor and Buxton are both faster than all of these guys, which I don't think will surprise anyone.

I should have included Gordon actually, but--spoiler--he's right in the middle.

I think all of these guys are at least roughly average as defenders, but some of the details were surprising to me.

[Lonestar]

Wallner is a lousy OF

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Lonestar said:

Wallner is a lousy OF

So was Tony Oliva until he took a couple of thousand rounds of fielding practice.

Perhaps Wallner does not have the athleticism to become an accomplished outfielder. I don't know about that. I do know he is really fast and has a total gun for an arm. He is also a big dude who looks like he wants to do well, which means nothing. I say he should spend two hours a day six days per week taking fielding practice and see what kind of player emerges. You know who else sucked at fielding? Aaron Judge.

[Doctor Gast]

Celestino. Kepler  Gallo   Larnach Wallner.   I believe Kepler & Gallo are close

[mnfireman]

I cheated and looked it up. I was somewhat surprised.

[wabene]

Gallo, Kepler, Celestino, Wallner and Larnach

 

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Do we have to look up the answer or will you give it to us? Thanks. This was fun. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I guessed Gallo, Kep, Celestino, Wallner and Larnach, I think. I can't find my previous post with my answer. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

My guess is Larnach, Celestino, Gallo, Gordon, Kepler, Wallner

[Major League Ready]

I cheated too.  Wallner's statcast numbers certainly are not in alignment with scouting reports or the eye test.  How do we explain this difference.  Prospects Live  Could the statcast data be an error?  I would like to believe he is just faster than he looks because there would be some defensive upside with that arm if this data is accurate.

[tony&rodney]

I'm totally guessing .... Wallner, Celestino, Kepler, Gallo, Larnach. 

I based my guesses on watching these guys run out ground balls hit to an infielder, which is pretty crude. I had no idea where to place Gallo.

No matter, the first two need some work to refine their games. Unlike some, my eyes tell me that one year of intensive work could turn Wallner into a really good player. We shall see.

[2wins87]

5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Do we have to look up the answer or will you give it to us? Thanks. This was fun. 

Yeah, the order is:

1. Matt Wallner – 28.4 ft/s

2. Gilberto Celestino – 27.9 ft/s

3. Max Kepler – 27.9 ft/s

4. Joey Gallo – 27.1 ft/s

5. Trevor Larnach – 27.0 ft/s

Also Nick Gordon is right there with Celestino and Kepler at 27.8 ft/s.

None of them are slow, Gallo and Larnach are basically average for the MLB.  Gallo did use to be faster when he was a rookie, but he's declined slowly since then.  I think he's still a solid defender, especially his arm, but I do feel that his defense has been a little overrated by his gold gloves.  Honestly Kepler probably should have beat him at least once.

But yeah, Wallner was a huge surprise to me.  There wouldn't be a ton of statcast data from his stint last year, but I think it would be enough to get a decent reading for his speed.  Being above the 70th percentile in the mlb is probably a 60 grade speed, so the scouting reports that generally have him as a 40 seem really off.  Probably his acceleration isn't great so you could drop the grade half a grade, but I wonder if it's just that he doesn't look the part of a fast runner so scouts are just assuming.  It is strange.

[Danchat]

I remember reading in minor league reports that Wallner was pretty slow, so I dunno... can we get them to all line up and sprint alongside each other?

[tony&rodney]

In his brief stint with the Twins last season Wallner displayed surprising speed on routine ground ball outs and in the outfield. He also looked really raw in the field, but seemed to have a pretty fair plan at the plate. There could be something there if he can be refined. I'm not put off by Wallner's age. Not every good player needs to have a ten year career. I'll take him as a player for seven years if he can field adequately and hit for both power and average with a high OBP. Wallner still has some real potential.

[ashbury]

Sprint speed is defined on statcast as baserunning, right?  That tells us something about defensive range and/or ability I suppose, but not much.

[Doctor Gast]

On 1/28/2023 at 8:14 PM, 2wins87 said:

Yeah, the order is:

1. Matt Wallner – 28.4 ft/s

2. Gilberto Celestino – 27.9 ft/s

3. Max Kepler – 27.9 ft/s

4. Joey Gallo – 27.1 ft/s

5. Trevor Larnach – 27.0 ft/s

Also Nick Gordon is right there with Celestino and Kepler at 27.8 ft/s.

None of them are slow, Gallo and Larnach are basically average for the MLB.  Gallo did use to be faster when he was a rookie, but he's declined slowly since then.  I think he's still a solid defender, especially his arm, but I do feel that his defense has been a little overrated by his gold gloves.  Honestly Kepler probably should have beat him at least once.

But yeah, Wallner was a huge surprise to me.  There wouldn't be a ton of statcast data from his stint last year, but I think it would be enough to get a decent reading for his speed.  Being above the 70th percentile in the mlb is probably a 60 grade speed, so the scouting reports that generally have him as a 40 seem really off.  Probably his acceleration isn't great so you could drop the grade half a grade, but I wonder if it's just that he doesn't look the part of a fast runner so scouts are just assuming.  It is strange.

I was right except Wallner. Yeah this certainly doesn’t line up with his scouting report 

[tony&rodney]

My list was correct but totally blind luck, because I had no idea of where to place any of Kepler, Gallo, or Larnach.

Watching Wallner in St. Paul and then with the Twins, one could visually see his closing speed in the outfield and he really displayed his wheels on routine ground ball outs. Now, Wallner a ton of polish to become a star.

[Doctor Gast]

Wallner has a lot of surprising raw talent, speed, strong arm & power. But if he refine more his eye, softer hands & better instincts like getting a good jump, reading the ball & (later stage) know when to dive for a ball, plus more confidence. All this can come if he puts his time in & a lot of help. If he can do this he can become an All-Star RFer. Love to see it.

[gman]

Maybe Wallner's job description should read; Dh & pinch runner. With his arm, maybe relief pitcher also.

[Parfigliano]

On 1/28/2023 at 4:16 PM, Danchat said:

I remember reading in minor league reports that Wallner was pretty slow, so I dunno... can we get them to all line up and sprint alongside each other?

Hot dog race style.