Game Thread: Twins @ Cleveland 9/16/22, 6:10pm CDT

[bighat]

With the lifeboat labeled “Royals” floating away beyond the horizon, the Twins find themselves adrift at sea with two options: sink or swim. Sitting four games out of 1st place with just 19 games left to play, Minnesota opens a make-or-break 5 game set against the division-leading Guardians tonight in Cleveland.  

The Guardians made a huge statement by sweeping the Twins in Minneapolis last weekend, and Minnesota would very much like to return the favor. In reality, the Twins almost must win at least 4 out of these next 5 games to have any realistic chance at making the postseason. Anything less will leave the team in serious trouble, and it goes without saying that if the Twins lose ground over the weekend, the season is essentially over. 

And with the season on the line, the Twins turn to…..Bailey Ober? Woah, he’s back! The 6’9” right hander (1-2, 4.01 ERA)  will be making his first start in over 3 months tonight. It’s a curious choice for such a big game, but Twins management must be feeling good about his rehab efforts. We’ve seen Ober pitch well in the past, and Cleveland hasn’t seen him this year so that might be to his advantage. Either way, it’s very “on brand” of the 2022 Minnesota Twins to have Ober out there shaking off 3 months worth of rust in the biggest game of the season. Nobody who's been on this season-long ride should shocked at the decision. 

Cleveland counters with Triston McKenzie (10-11, 3.05), who pitched 7 shutout innings in a victory against the Twins in Minneapolis last weekend. McKenzie hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in a start since August 2nd - a month and a half ago. The 25 year-old NYC native is having a great year and has a bright future in the league. 

Luis Arraez is back in the lineup and leading off, with Correa and Miranda hitting behind him. Nick Gordon is batting cleanup. Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez are in the lineup too. The infamous "Three C's" make up the outfield tonight: Cave, Celestino and Contreras. They will be batting 7th, 8th, and 9th, respectively. 

So what are the chances the Twins grab the bull by the horns this weekend? According to the numbers, the chances are slim. Since August 1, the Twins are 4-15 against teams that are above .500. Two of their best offensive players (Buxton, Polanco) remain on the IL. Emilio Pagan is still on the roster and will definitely pitch in this series. But this is baseball. Every team has a chance to beat any other team in the league on any given day. The Twins are shaking the dice, and until the first pitch is thrown tonight, Twins fans everywhere can find a way to believe they’ll roll boxcars.

Odds: Cleveland -154, Twins +130

Weather: 75 and sunny at gametime

Picks to click: Mark Contreras leads the team with an average 96.1 MPH exit velocity when playing against RHP on the road. Jose Miranda leads the team with a .393 wOBA in the same conditions. 

Lineups: 

1. Luis Arraez (L) DH

2. Carlos Correa (R) SS

3. Jose Miranda (R) 1B

4. Nick Gordon (L) 2B

5. Gio Urshela (R) 3B

6. Gary Sanchez (R) C

7. Jake Cave (L) LF

8. Gilberto Celestino (R) CF

9. Mark Contreras (L) RF
P. Ober (R)

 

1. Steven Kwan (L) LF

2. Amed Rosario (R) SS

3. Jose Ramirez (S) 3B

4. Josh Naylor (L) 1B

5. Oscar Gonzalez (R) RF

6. Andres Gimenez (L) 2B

7. Will Benson (L) DH

8. Luke Maile (R) C

9. Myles Straw (R) CF
P. McKenzie (R)

[stringer bell]

Contreras for Garlick I guess. Wow, the injuries don’t stop. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Contreras for Garlick I guess. Wow, the injuries don’t stop. 

Rumor has it young Mr Wallner isn't playing for St Paul tonight and it may be for a reason involving this Cleveland series

[msukirbycarew]

"We can win this....we can win this.....""   Praying we fight, scrap  and win.  I just want to participate in a pennant race  for the last few weeks.   I am not ready to focus on the Vikings.  I am scared at the improvement McKenzie has shown and the unknown of Ober coming back after so long.  

[CRF]

Garlick can't get up in the morning and brush his teeth without pulling something. As worthless as Kepler's been, I'd sure as hell rather have him in RF instead of Contreras. Kep usually hits well in that park. Is he that hurt? He's not on the Il unless I missed it. In any event...we need to find some magic and win 4 of 5 over there. I think this is our last chance. 

[bighat]

Didn't put this in the game intro, but just saw it and worth noting: 

 

[ashbury]

40 minutes ago, bighat said:

Picks to click: Mark Contreras leads the team with an average 96.1 MPH exit velocity when playing against RHP on the road.

"Climb on my back, boys.  I'm carrying you tonight."

[chpettit19]

Why is Max Kepler still not on the IL? What is the point of basically wasting a roster spot for 11 days? He's started once since September 4th. Just IL him!

[tony&rodney]

Only the Twins know what is going on with Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler. If these guys cannot play this weekend there must be real problems. Also, hard to believe that the Twins are still carrying Caleb Hamilton and Jermaine Palacios but not trying to catch some luck with Matt Wallner or another guy. Finally, I sure hope that Hamilton is allowed to run if the Twins use him.

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Why is Max Kepler still not on the IL? What is the point of basically wasting a roster spot for 11 days? He's started once since September 4th. Just IL him!

Running this line-up out there in a must win game and keeping Kepler on the roster while Polanco, Larnach, Jeffers and Wallner are in St. Paul is ridiculous.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Running this line-up out there in a must win game and keeping Kepler on the roster while Polanco, Larnach, Jeffers and Wallner are in St. Paul is ridiculous.

Technically Wallner is actually in Cleveland. He is part of the taxi squad in case he needs to be added to the roster if Kepler goes on the IL.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Contreras for Garlick I guess. Wow, the injuries don’t stop. 

As much as you  guy hate B. Hamilton, he is still a  better fielder than Contreras,  and  if Hamilton had 25 at bats like contreras, would probably be just as good; put Cave in Right and Hamilton in Left.

I did dig deep and Contreras,  only had 4 errors in the Minors and they were all in Left Field so that is probably why he is in Right Field.

IF he hits the ball , he does have some pop.

[AussieG]

13 minutes ago, RpR said:

As much as you  guy hate B. Hamilton, he is far, far, far better fielder than Contreras, and Contreras and  if Hamilton had 25 at bats like contreras, would probably be just as good; put Cave in Right and Hamilton in Left.

IF he hits the ball , he does have some pop.

B Hamilton has pop?

[PDX Twin]

15 minutes ago, AussieG said:

B Hamilton has pop?

diet Coke, by the looks of him.

[stringer bell]

Missed it by this much!

[MplsFan]

Well I like that Miranda made McKenzie work in that at bat.

[mrtwinsfan]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Missed it by this much!

Not the best way to start --OUCH

[AussieG]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

1 minute ago, MplsFan said:

Well I like that Miranda made McKenzie work in that at bat.

And ran hard out of the box to get into 2nd

 

[mrtwinsfan]

Nicky Nice

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, AussieG said:

B Hamilton has pop?

NO Contreras, that long ball the other night from Billy surprised me.

Old poker face Kwan, seems to do well against the Twins on average.

[AussieG]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

NO Contreras, that long ball the other night from Billy surprised me.

Old poker face Kwan, seems to do well against the Twins on average.

Ah ok. Yep would really like to have Kwan playing for us

[mrtwinsfan]

Obers only chance is not walking batters and then running like crazy, 

[AussieG]

J Cave gold glove nominee 

[stringer bell]

Nice “D” in the bottom of the first. 

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, AussieG said:

J Cave gold glove nominee 

He’s made a lot of nice plays in his short time with the Twins this year. Keep him out of center field and he’s an asset on defense. 

[RpR]

Prediction, Cave and Contreras both homer and Miranda steals second base.

ODD, Sanchez who often hits home runs 470 plus feet, has become the hitter of singles.

[Squirrel]

Well, the Twins didn't make McKenzie work much that inning

[stringer bell]

Just now, stringer bell said:

He’s made a lot of nice plays in his short time with the Twins this year. Keep him out of center field and he’s an asset on defense. 

Offense, not so much. 

[Mortimerkenny21]

So much for McKenzie's 24 pitch 1st inning...a 6 pitch 2nd inning! Cripes!

[PDX Twin]

I'd like to think we shall Obercome, but I just don't really see it happening...