Is Chris Archer Starting to Become a Liability?

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

That’s a pretty dang insightful reply. I appreciate it!

No problem! Needed a distraction from work for a bit so figured I'd look some stuff up.

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The Twins have about 50-60 pitchers currently active in the minors.  A sample size of Sands is not really a good argument for not bringing someone up.

Yeah, but they only get 40 roster spots. They're not going to cut the big leaguers and go with the rotation from Double-A until they're forced to do that. If someone else wants a call-up they need to get ahead of Sands in the pecking order. Devin Smeltzer was able to do that. Henriquez, Balazovic and Strotman have been terrible in AAA. Derek Rodriguez, Jharel Cotton and Chi Chi Gonzalez are 30 years old, they're not kids. The cupboard is mostly bare in St. Paul.

[Linus]

He doesn’t have the command necessary to be much more than he is right now. If it takes 80 pitches to get thru 4 innings you are not really a starter. Sorry Dr Ghast. He might be able to provide some length in the bullpen. They have to find someone to pitch multiple innings out of the pen. 

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Archer was a late signing (March 29th) and was not stretched out. The Twins obviously have him on a pitch (80) or inning cap (4.0). Considering fans were fawning over Ober and Ryan last year when their ERAs were right about what Archer's is today, it seems a little out of touch to decide Archer is worthless.

He's had 3 good starts in a row based on FIP. 4 of his last 6 starts have been solid enough based on ERA. I'd think he was stretched out enough at this point where he should be able to pitch normally so I'd like to see him be given the opportunity to pitch deeper.

I think the Twins just want to win games and leaving Archer in longer that 3-4 innings puts that goal in jeopardy. Of course rookie pitchers are going to be given the benefit of the doubt over a vet trying to prove there's something left in the tank after dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness. 

FIP is not Archer's friend. It's clear he fades after the 3rd or 4th inning, the Twins aren't holding him back. Also, it's June, the issue definitely isn't him not being stretched out at this point. 

[Aerodeliria]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Archer was a late signing (March 29th) and was not stretched out. The Twins obviously have him on a pitch (80) or inning cap (4.0). Considering fans were fawning over Ober and Ryan last year when their ERAs were right about what Archer's is today, it seems a little out of touch to decide Archer is worthless.

He's had 3 good starts in a row based on FIP. 4 of his last 6 starts have been solid enough based on ERA. I'd think he was stretched out enough at this point where he should be able to pitch normally so I'd like to see him be given the opportunity to pitch deeper.

Exactly. As I mentioned previously, if he's pitching well, let him pitch. If he's not take him out.

I think most of us thought that Archer's ceiling was not particularly high, but that he could give us innings, but even when he pitches well, he is never given the chance to pitch in the 5th inning (or beyond). That means he cannot get credit for a 'win,' and this must put a drag on his psychological state, so unless he is moved to the bullpen or allowed to pitch at least five when he is pitching well, he is going to be 0-10 for the season or something along those lines--and (of course) he realizes this is the case, which has to be demoralizing. Taking one for the team now and then is something pitchers are expected do, but taking one for the team every time you pitch??

[MTV]

The Twins need to get even more starters as of right now. Smeltzer is surprisingly strong so far, Bundy owns an ERA around 2 outside of 2 bad starts against the Orioles and Rays, Archer is an option only for 4-5 innings, Ryan, Gray, and Winder are out for the short term while Paddack is out until 2024. Right now the best starter option for the Twins is Chi Chi Gonzalez from Saint Paul. If the Twins wanna stay above the rest, they need to go get some cheap yet effective arms. 
 

Dallas Keuchel just got DFA’d by the White Sox and could be sought after, Dinelson Lamet has great stuff but is struggling in 2022 and could be cheaper to acquire from the Padres, or the Twins could look for 1-year options from rebuilders, like Wade Miley and Drew Smyly from Chicago, Jordan Lyles from Baltimore, or Chad Kuhl from Colorado. The Twins should be okay without some of their lower-listed top 30 Prospects.

[Danchat]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He is 3rd on the team in innings and has an ERA of 4.19 (The exact same as Ober last year and just above Ryan, without of the upside of course) so I think liability is a bit harsh, but I think they way the Twins have handle his starts is up for much discussion, but that could said just about all the starters. They seem to have a plan if the pitcher is decent but not bad or good.

BBref has him at -0.1 WAR, so if not a liability, he's a replacement level player that is forcing the bullpen to throw a minimum of 5 innings whenever he toes the rubber.

But yes, right now there aren't any clearly better alternatives... 

[awmonahan]

I get that he isn't doing well, but it looks like we are triaging innings at the moment. Liability or not, he is somewhat competitive at the MLB level, and that is all we can ask for with four starters out right now. 

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, MTV said:

The Twins need to get even more starters as of right now. Smeltzer is surprisingly strong so far, Bundy owns an ERA around 2 outside of 2 bad starts against the Orioles and Rays, Archer is an option only for 4-5 innings, Ryan, Gray, and Winder are out for the short term while Paddack is out until 2024. Right now the best starter option for the Twins is Chi Chi Gonzalez from Saint Paul. If the Twins wanna stay above the rest, they need to go get some cheap yet effective arms. 
 

Dallas Keuchel just got DFA’d by the White Sox and could be sought after, Dinelson Lamet has great stuff but is struggling in 2022 and could be cheaper to acquire from the Padres, or the Twins could look for 1-year options from rebuilders, like Wade Miley and Drew Smyly from Chicago, Jordan Lyles from Baltimore, or Chad Kuhl from Colorado. The Twins should be okay without some of their lower-listed top 30 Prospects.

Replacing a guy with a 4.19 ERA with a 7.88 ERA guy does not seem like a good move.  How about we get Ryan / Gray and Winder back in the next couple weeks and go with Gray / Ryan / Ober / Winder / Smeltzer and Bundy if one of them are out? 

[TopGunn#22]

First off, I agree with everyone who says Smeltzer belongs in the rotation.  He certainly does until he makes 3 consecutive starts that are bad enough to remove him from the rotation.  His last start, with 7 shutout innings and 79 pitches Rocco should have just left him in.

I also agree with those who are saying Archer has NOT been bad.  He's been about what I hoped for.  I see him thriving in a long relief role where he gives you 2-3 innings in the 5th/6th or 6th/7th inning.  Keep him just long enough to be effective but not long enough to get in deep trouble.  There is value in that kind of role.  He's a veteran.  If it means staying on a Big League roster, he will adapt to something other than starting.

But this gets us back to the points Nick made in another post:  The staff as a whole has some serious gaps.  Starters generally don't go long enough and there are only a couple of "reliable" bullpen arms.  Right now, Theilbar and Duffey aren't cutting it.  Each should be packaged in a trade to reinforce the pitching staff.  Teams dealing pitching always need SOME kind of pitching coming back, primarily because nobody has an endless supply of arms.  Duffey and Theilbar would have enough value to help close a deal.

So that brings us back to the need to trade for some more reliable arms.  I want the Twins to continue to explore Frankie Montas possibilities.  If someone like A.J. Puk could be included, so much the better.  This is where Theilbar could come in handy.  Puk and Theilbar swap teams leaving both teams with a LH bullpen option.  I see Luis Castillo was REALLY good in his last start against the Giants.  I still like Lopez from the Orioles.  Maybe a deal could be made for Lopez and Means.  

I'd like the F.O. to remain engaged in some of these possibilities, sooner rather than later.  But most teams will wait until the trade deadline to maximize leverage.  The Twins just need to get Ryan and Winder back (and Gray !) and "maintain" until the deadline approaches.  But there is no doubt, the status quo won't be successful.  A deal (or deals plural) need to be made.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, MTV said:

Wade Miley  from Chicago

I was one who wanted the Twins to pick up Miley off waivers during the offseason. He's only pitched 3 games for Chicago and he's back on the injured list. They have plenty of injured pitchers.

[Harrison Greeley III]

Thing I thought but didn't actually want to post yesterday:

Like the opposite of a slump immediately following a nice Fangraphs article, this existence of this thread probably means good things for Archer's start tomorrow. 

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think the Twins just want to win games and leaving Archer in longer that 3-4 innings puts that goal in jeopardy. Of course rookie pitchers are going to be given the benefit of the doubt over a vet trying to prove there's something left in the tank after dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness. 

FIP is not Archer's friend. It's clear he fades after the 3rd or 4th inning, the Twins aren't holding him back. Also, it's June, the issue definitely isn't him not being stretched out at this point. 

FIP isn't his friend huh? Well, if you're going to take your stance negatively on Archer in an post where the subject is wondering if he's becoming a liability based on FIP, here are Archer's last 3 starts

• 5/28 - FIP = 2.64
• 5/23 - FIP = 3.39
• 5/16 - FIP = 3.64

Archer has pitched 34 innings this year across 9 starts. Archer has been limited due to the fact he missed most of Spring Training as he wasn't signed until the 29th. Of the 9 starts, 5 have been at 4.50 ERA or lower and 4 have been FIP 3.64 or lower. Lance Lynn missed most of Spring Training a couple years ago when the Twins signed him and he looked pretty good once he was able to stretch out and get into a rhythm. 

I'm not a huge Archer fan. I didn't expect he had anything left in the tank when the Twins signed him, but he's allowed more than 2 earned runs only twice in 9 games started, but this post feels a lot more like frustration than facts.

[KirbyDome89]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

FIP isn't his friend huh? Well, if you're going to take your stance negatively on Archer in an post where the subject is wondering if he's becoming a liability based on FIP, here are Archer's last 3 starts

• 5/28 - FIP = 2.64
• 5/23 - FIP = 3.39
• 5/16 - FIP = 3.64

Archer has pitched 34 innings this year across 9 starts. Archer has been limited due to the fact he missed most of Spring Training as he wasn't signed until the 29th. Of the 9 starts, 5 have been at 4.50 ERA or lower and 4 have been FIP 3.64 or lower. Lance Lynn missed most of Spring Training a couple years ago when the Twins signed him and he looked pretty good once he was able to stretch out and get into a rhythm. 

I'm not a huge Archer fan. I didn't expect he had anything left in the tank when the Twins signed him, but he's allowed more than 2 earned runs only twice in 9 games started, but this post feels a lot more like frustration than facts.

Yet entering today he had a FIP still north of 5.00. You can pick a game here or there, I'm sure today will be one of them, but the overall underlying numbers don't paint the picture of a guy that's being held back by his own team. 

Yikes at that Lance Lynn comp. If you told me that's what the Twins were getting I'd have have said run away. 

Because the Twins want to win those games. Do they need to leave him in the get absolutely blown up before we'll admit that Archer has worn down quickly and often found himself in trouble? Has the bullpen also not bailed him out at times? 

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yet entering today he had a FIP still north of 5.00. You can pick a game here or there, I'm sure today will be one of them, but the overall underlying numbers don't paint the picture of a guy that's being held back by his own team. 

Yikes at that Lance Lynn comp. If you told me that's what the Twins were getting I'd have have said run away. 

Because the Twins want to win those games. Do they need to leave him in the get absolutely blown up before we'll admit that Archer has worn down quickly and often found himself in trouble? Has the bullpen also not bailed him out at times? 

Desperation is a stinky cologne...

[PopRiveter]

I mean- you’re going to pull him just 57 pitches into a start when he’s cruised through 5 innings? 
I don’t see him as a liability at all, but I think the team is managing his usage as if he is a liability.

 I don’t understand the plan and I don’t think I like it. At least I sure didn’t like it yesterday.

[KirbyDome89]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Desperation is a stinky cologne...

How could I not be when trying to match such wit.