Twins Trade Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa to Yankees for Sanchez, Urshela

[Otto von Ballpark]

4 hours ago, Platoon said:

Does having picked up two Yankees who are familiar with NY improve our chances when we meet them in this years ALCS? Maybe all this is, is an attempt to overcome the "jinx"?

Previous attempts involved Ruben Sierra, Carl Pavano, and Phil Hughes.

Edit to add: and John Ryan Murphy.

[jud6312]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Some of the biggest punchers in boxing have skinny arms. Being muscle bound doesn't necessarily translate to explosive power.

With that short porch in right at Yankee Stadium II, he very well could.

 

[KirbyDome89]

15 hours ago, Danchat said:

How do you move Garver for IKF, just to ship him to New York in a salary dump? And send Rortvedt?! We have no depth at catcher with only Jeffers and one of the worst defensive catchers in Sanchez. And I don't even like Sanchez's bat, I don't think he's the hitter he once was - I can't stand Sano at times, but I'd take him 100 times out of 100 over Sanchez.

Two years of affordable control of Urshela is nice, I guess? I just don't know if he has what it takes to get back to his 2019-20 levels, and I'd rather play Miranda at 3B. And now we don't have a SS! And our catching depth is completely gone, as there's nobody close to the major league level who's any good. How on earth do you move Garver and Rortvedt for peanuts?

I don't know what this team is doing. I hate this trade. Maybe they're going to sign Story - and I'll like that - but there is no way it should have required blowing up the catcher position and trading Donaldson. And also barely upgrading the pitching staff, which was the primary reason why the 2021 season went horribly wrong... I just don't get any of this.

This is where I'm at. Story can be had for money, which they had plenty of prior to dumping Donaldson's salary. The Twins are now worse at C and 3B in addition to a hole at SS. If Story, or another big move happens, the NY swap will certainly be spun as the Twins "needing," to clear space, but the $40M+ gap between current day and payroll the previous season says otherwise.  

[bean5302]

This is what accidental tanking looks like.

[terrydactyls]

There is a rumor now that Correa would consider a one-year mega deal.  Why not throw $40M at him for 2022?  See if he bites and then worry about SS next year.  Maybe Palacios or Lewis prove they can play SS and then you can focus on pitching.  Sign Pineda now and trade for Castillo or Montas.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand the obsession with Pineda coming back. He's a 4 at best at this point. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I collected the current 2022 Fangraphs projections for the players we've acquired and/or sent away the past few days. Because of all the variables, I don't know quite what to make of it yet, but here it is:

Player	PA or IP	fWAR	Salary
Donaldson	581	3.5	$21
Kiner-Falefa	546	2.1	~$4.9
Rortvedt	326	1.5	$0.7
Urshela	539	2.0	$6.55
Sanchez	384	1.2	~$7.9
Gray	160	2.4	$10.7
Garver	497	2.6	$3.1

FWIW, Trevor Story currently projects for 644 PA and 4.5 WAR, at an estimated salary of $21-25 mil.

 

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The Twins are now worse at C and 3B in addition to a hole at SS.

I don't think Urshela is going to be worse than Donaldson the next 2 years. He's either an adequate stopgap at SS (better than moving Polanco back) or he's an average 3B. Donaldson's days as a plus defender at 3B are over. If they acquire a shortstop then Luis Arraez is still not a starter in this infield and Jose Miranda is waiting for playing time. 

They're worse at C mainly because they now have no depth at all. Garver isn't that much better than Sanchez. They can find  a catch-and-throw guy for depth at catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think Urshela is going to be worse than Donaldson the next 2 years. He's either an adequate stopgap at SS (better than moving Polanco back) or he's an average 3B. Donaldson's days as a plus defender at 3B are over. If they acquire a shortstop then Luis Arraez is still not a starter in this infield and Jose Miranda is waiting for playing time. 

They're worse at C mainly because they now have no depth at all. Garver isn't that much better than Sanchez. They can find  a catch-and-throw guy for depth at catcher.

Garver is much better than Sanchez the last few years. Not even close, when you take into account D and O. Like, twice as good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Garver is much better than Sanchez the last few years. Not even close, when you take into account D and O. Like, twice as good.

Garver is better per inning but when you take into account playing time the gap narrows. Sanchez has played 88 games more than Garver over the last 3 years. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Garver is better per inning but when you take into account playing time the gap narrows. Sanchez has played 88 games more than Garver over the last 3 years. 

That's 30 games a year.......Want to bet who puts up more WAR the next year? 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think at this stage of his career Donaldson has an expectation of full-on contention and I don't think he'd be very content on a team that's taking a step back and looking to the future. 

On a more subjective note, I think this brashness and ego are better fits in a place like New York than with the culture Rocco's trying to build here.

 Idk why we need to imply he'd be a malcontent to justify the move. 

What is this culture? 

[LastOnePicked]

47 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

This is what accidental tanking looks like.

Agreed. I still cannot get over that this FO just made a trade that makes the team worse in short and long term. They paid a heavy cost to the Yankees to take the contract of an elite 3B slugger. Even gave them a promising prospect to boot.

Some people have commented that this is the kind of move the Rays make. I have never seen the Rays pay another team  to take on their best players.

If they're contending in 2022, they could certainly have used Donaldson. If they're rebuilding in 2022, they needed to see what they had in Kiner-Falefa and Rortvedt. This move is the worst of both possible approaches.

Please, please let one of two things be true:

1) I'm wrong, and there's some goofy magic, luck or plan I can't see.

2) This year will be the end of the Falvey/Levine era. They've done enough damage.

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, LastOnePicked said:

 

Please, please let one of two things be true:

1) I'm wrong, and there's some goofy magic, luck or plan I can't see.

2) This year will be the end of the Falvey/Levine era. They've done enough damage.

Well, moves are happening quickly here.  If we make no other trades or signings than I too would scratch my head at this.  It'll be curious to see how Donaldson and Garver perform the next two years, but people should at least consider the idea that we may have gotten out a year early on these guys rather than late.

There is significant value in hitting on that timing, if you can hit on it.

[LastOnePicked]

6 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think this brashness and ego are better fits in a place like New York than with the culture Rocco's trying to build here.

If Rocco can't build an inclusive and strong enough clubhouse culture to accommodate primetime players with ego, brashness and fire, he shouldn't be an MLB manager. Period.

I can't even imagine accepting this as an excuse for this trade. To me, it means that a culture of mushy mediocrity is all we're building here. Yuck.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

Well, moves are happening quickly here.  If we make no other trades or signings than I too would scratch my head at this.  It'll be curious to see how Donaldson and Garver perform the next two years, but people should at least consider the idea that we may have gotten out a year early on these guys rather than late.

There is significant value in hitting on that timing, if you can hit on it.

Only if you get something in return.....which, they did get two pretty lowly rated prospects too? They also took on Sanchez....

[KirbyDome89]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand the obsession with Pineda coming back. He's a 4 at best at this point. 

The current rotation, or lack thereof for that matter. 

I'll take him, but it's not a move to be celebrated. It's a bare minimum type signing. I think a lot of posters (not lumping you in here) overestimate how many innings a lot of these prospects will be able to throw in the majors this season.

If it's Pineda vs. ownership pocketing more $$ and running out an even more washed vet and/or AAAA filler I'll take the former. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

The current rotation, or lack thereof for that matter. 

I'll take him, but it's not a move to be celebrated. It's a bare minimum type signing. I think a lot of posters (not lumping you in here) overestimate how many innings a lot of these prospects will be able to throw in the majors this season.

If it's Pineda vs. ownership pocketing more $$ and running out an even more washed vet and/or AAAA filler I'll take the former. 

I count 4 starters right now....leaving the last spot for them to cycle thru, plus injuries. Unless they are getting a GOOD SP, I don't understand adding one. They HAVE TO cycle thru these guys to see who looks legit in the Show.

Yes, they will need a lot of them...but they have like 5 to test. Plus, Pineda isn't exactly Iron Mike. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I count 4 starters right now....leaving the last spot for them to cycle thru, plus injuries. Unless they are getting a GOOD SP, I don't understand adding one. They HAVE TO cycle thru these guys to see who looks legit in the Show.

Yes, they will need a lot of them...but they have like 5 to test. Plus, Pineda isn't exactly Iron Mike. 

No doubt, but I think Pineda's injury certainty plays into that need. Bundy threw 90 innings last year, and is far from a lock to make it through the year, be it injury or effectiveness. Ryan and Ober are going to be on their own pitch counts too. Gray is the only current starter they can unleash on Day 1 and not have to babysit. 

[TheLeviathan]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Only if you get something in return.....which, they did get two pretty lowly rated prospects too? They also took on Sanchez....

I don't think Urshela or Sanchez are low rated or garbage or anything like that.  In two of the last three seasons Urshela had an OPS+ over 130.  He was also an above average defender. Sanchez, while being a poor defender, has at times been an elite hitter.  

And they freed themselves of a problematic contract for a guy I'd bet is an albatross soon.  That sort of contract flexibility has a lot of value in baseball right now.

Now, what they do with that flexibility....we'll see.  

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No doubt, but I think Pineda's injury certainty plays into that need. Bundy threw 90 innings last year, and is far from a lock to make it through the year, be it injury or effectiveness. Ryan and Ober are going to be on their own pitch counts too. Gray is the only current starter they can unleash on Day 1 and not have to babysit. 

Good point on Bundy. No idea why I counted him as a starter. If he gets more than 6 starts, I'll be surprised.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't think Urshela or Sanchez are low rated or garbage or anything like that.  In two of the last three seasons Urshela had an OPS+ over 130.  He was also an above average defender. Sanchez, while being a poor defender, has at times been an elite hitter.  

And they freed themselves of a problematic contract for a guy I'd bet is an albatross soon.  That sort of contract flexibility has a lot of value in baseball right now.

Now, what they do with that flexibility....we'll see.  

Did you know Zips projected Sanchez for less WAR than Rortverdt? Yikes. 

I'll give you 2 years of Urshela (or two, I guess).....

[TheLeviathan]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Did you know Zips projected Sanchez for less WAR than Rortverdt? Yikes. 

I'll give you 2 years of Urshela (or two, I guess).....

If everyone was what they were projected to be or were the previous year then we wouldn't have to play the games,   Or our recent 100M investment into Buxton is complete nonsense.  You gotta take swings at upside.  I see the upside here, even if we might disagree greatly about the odds of hitting that upside.

I have no doubt this could backfire spectacularly, but I do appreciate that they are shaking up a bad team.  

[KirbyDome89]

7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't think Urshela or Sanchez are low rated or garbage or anything like that.  In two of the last three seasons Urshela had an OPS+ over 130.  He was also an above average defender. Sanchez, while being a poor defender, has at times been an elite hitter.  

And they freed themselves of a problematic contract for a guy I'd bet is an albatross soon.  That sort of contract flexibility has a lot of value in baseball right now.

Now, what they do with that flexibility....we'll see.  

Sanchez's road splits were pretty bad offensively last year to match his atrocious D. He's an obvious downgrade. They don't really lose defensively at 3B, but Donaldson has been basically an automatic 125 OPS+ or better since becoming a regular. That's absolute peak Urshela and he has to find his way there again. 

You're right, if they absolutely max out all the $$ this year then there's value in the swap. If payroll is slashed and I have to listen to "they've got X amount for down the road..." then yeah. 

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't think Urshela or Sanchez are low rated or garbage or anything like that.  In two of the last three seasons Urshela had an OPS+ over 130.  He was also an above average defender.

 

One of the past three years at Third base he was above average , his 43 gave season. WOW, the one year he played over one hundred games , his range was WAY below league average, just what the Twins need.

 

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Sanchez's road splits were pretty bad offensively last year to match his atrocious D. He's an obvious downgrade. They don't really lose defensively at 3B, but Donaldson has been basically an automatic 125 OPS+ or better since becoming a regular. That's absolute peak Urshela and he has to find his way there again. 

You're right, if they absolutely max out all the $$ this year then there's value in the swap. If payroll is slashed and I have to listen to "they've got X amount for down the road..." then yeah. 

Except Donaldson is 35.  When the wall hits, it's going to hit pretty hard.  Especially for a player like Donaldson who has so much value wrapped up in defense.  I readily admit, a big reason I'm leaning positive on this trade is that I think we're wisely getting out early on a guy that is going to look like a 25M albatross.

Where I hesitate is seeing how that money gets used.  

[TheLeviathan]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

One of the past three years at Third base he was above average , his 43 gave season. WOW, the one year he played over one hundred games , his range was WAY below league average, just what the Twins need.

 

You have demonstrated no capacity or willingness to have a nuanced discussion of statistics.  These posts are disingenuous, you have no interest in actually analyzing any of this data.  Only cherry-picking.  I'm not interested in that kind of windmill chasing.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

One of the past three years at Third base he was above average , his 43 gave season. WOW, the one year he played over one hundred games , his range was WAY below league average, just what the Twins need.

 

The three defensive rating systems disagree about his ability......I'd look at all three to figure it out. One says good, one says average, one says bad. That's kind of amazing, really.

[RpR]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

You have demonstrated no capacity or willingness to have a nuanced discussion of statistics.  You should basically just stop using them until you change that course of action.  These posts are disingenuous, you have no interest in actually analyzing any of this data.  Only cherry-picking.  I'm not interested in that kind of windmill chasing.

No I showed your statement was bollocks and you do not like it, que sera, sera.