How many wins?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But that's missing so much, Sconnie. Who went into 2016 as an arm you looked forward to seeing like Ober or Ryan? The Twins didn't have much hope past Berrios, who was absolutely terrible.

Never mind the defense of 2016. Holy Moses, the defense. If I recall correctly, Robbie Grossman's defense alone was worth -2 wins.

BTW, I'm happy to be proven wrong about any of that but I've looked it up in the past and I'm not going to double-check anything while I'm wrapping presents. Happy Holidays, y'all!

That was the point of the innings pitched post earlier. As much talent and upside all these youngsters have, Ober and Ryan combined for a total of 200 innings last year, and they are #2 and 3 for innings pitched on the roster. Sure they’ll pitch more, but a far cry from 150 to 200 innings each the Twins need to avoid seeing Andrew Albers again.

2023 has a ton of potential. ‘22 they’ll run out of horses in July/August

[Brock Beauchamp]

35 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

That was the point of the innings pitched post earlier. As much talent and upside all these youngsters have, Ober and Ryan combined for a total of 200 innings last year, and they are #2 and 3 for innings pitched on the roster. Sure they’ll pitch more, but a far cry from 150 to 200 innings each the Twins need to avoid seeing Andrew Albers again.

2023 has a ton of potential. ‘22 they’ll run out of horses in July/August

I don't do this... basically ever, but it's a fun thing to think about.

Gentleperson's bet?

69.5 wins. I'll take the over.

[wsnydes]

20 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't do this... basically ever, but it's a fun thing to think about.

Gentleperson's bet?

69.5 wins. I'll take the over.

 

[RonCoomersOPS]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Which is why I'm so irritated at how the front office treated this free agency season. This team is primed to bounce back in a pretty big way but relying entirely on the farm to do it is basically throwing away a season, IMO.

The Twins have never really been one to spend ridiculous amounts of money in FA, though. I would guess the plan has pretty much always been (and is currently) to work the trade market, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them go for a Montas or Castillo type once the lockout is over.

[RonCoomersOPS]

Not trying to pick nits, but it looks like the operator is incorrect on the first option. As is, it makes all the other options redundant.

[Danchat]

Even when it seems obvious, whenever I predict the Twins' record, I'm always completely off in either direction. This seems like a borderline 90 loss team to me, which is why I will predict they will win 80-89 wins... 

Wait, if the season gets abbreviated, then we might want to post our predictions as percentages. So around 52% wins.

[Prince William]

90 plus because two days into the season Oakland will panic and send the Twins their 3 starters for the top 5 Twins prospects or first year players with the last name starting with R

[wsnydes]

5 hours ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

Not trying to pick nits, but it looks like the operator is incorrect on the first option. As is, it makes all the other options redundant.

Nice catch!  Perfection was not on my side yesterday!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, wsnydes said:

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't do this... basically ever, but it's a fun thing to think about.

Gentleperson's bet?

69.5 wins. I'll take the over.

Under

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Sconnie said:

Under

Deal! You're gonna lose, sucka! ?

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, wsnydes said:

[Whitey333]

The roster, as currently constructed, is a disaster waiting to happen.  At present I can't see this team even 70 games.  I hope I'm wrong.  This is not a team even close to contending.

[gunnarthor]

12 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But that's missing so much, Sconnie. Who went into 2016 as an arm you looked forward to seeing like Ober or Ryan? The Twins didn't have much hope past Berrios, who was absolutely terrible.

Never mind the defense of 2016. Holy Moses, the defense. If I recall correctly, Robbie Grossman's defense alone was worth -2 wins.

BTW, I'm happy to be proven wrong about any of that but I've looked it up in the past and I'm not going to double-check anything while I'm wrapping presents. Happy Holidays, y'all!

Want to see something scary?

2016 pitching WAR - 3.9 (And Berrios was way more exciting to look forward to than Ober or Ryan. And Duffy-hype might have = Ryan or Ober?)

2021 pitching WAR - -0.6 (!!)

That said, there is no way the 2022 Twins will be a 100 loss team. No way. They won 73 games this year and the offense will be good. I can see ways this goes sideways and we only win 65 but that would be another total system failure but that's unlikely. This team is in that ugly 70-80 win area, where they aren't quite bad enough to get a top 5 pick but also not good enough to make the playoffs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Want to see something scary?

2016 pitching WAR - 3.9 (And Berrios was way more exciting to look forward to than Ober or Ryan. And Duffy-hype might have = Ryan or Ober?)

2021 pitching WAR - -0.6 (!!)

That said, there is no way the 2022 Twins will be a 100 loss team. No way. They won 73 games this year and the offense will be good. I can see ways this goes sideways and we only win 65 but that would be another total system failure but that's unlikely. This team is in that ugly 70-80 win area, where they aren't quite bad enough to get a top 5 pick but also not good enough to make the playoffs. 

I pretty much agree. I don't think this team will be terrible but I have a hard time seeing even a .500 outcome. Having someone like Stroman pencilled in for 2-3 wins would go a long way toward making this roster a borderline contender, at least for a WC spot.

[gman]

I'm at plus 70 less than 80. The offense should (I hope) actually be better with Buxton & Kirilloff playing more without injuries. Plus any number of others playing healthy. Pitching I think will be a season of growth, which can only be good for the teams future. Plus a number of infielders and outfielders in the upper minors getting closer to stack the everyday lineup. Should be very interesting even if they can't make a winning record. No doubt we'll have pitching performances where we get our butts kicked, but we'll kick butt on the hitting side also.  

[joefish]

Who will they be better than?

60 wins maybe

[eal5959]

I would go with low to mid 70's.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 minutes ago, eal5959 said:

I would go with low to mid 70's.

Great first post! keep it up!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Deal! You're gonna lose, sucka! ?

I hope so!

Truthfully, I've already won, either I'm right and can gloat, or I'm wrong and the Twins are better than I expect

[Major League Ready]

On 12/22/2021 at 12:41 PM, Sconnie said:

I guess I'm the negative Nelson here. They won 73 games last year and had half a season on Maeda and Berrios. 2022 will have neither of those two at any point, and as it stands will be mostly bullpen games. It appears they'll trust the youth and the AAAA journeymen. Sure they'll score runs, but you can't expect 2 touch downs every game

They had a better record after Maeda got hurt and Berrios was traded.  They were 500 after the deadline.  Obviously, trading Berrios did not make them better.  Just saying those young guys and the BP gave us a chance.  It sure would be nice if Winder stepped right in like Ryan was able to do.

[beckmt]

I was with the 70 - 80 crowd, depends on how the young pitchers do.  There will be some lumps, but maybe a couple will step up and we are better than we thought.

[BJ positive]

95+ wins. And a trip to the World Series. I correctly predicted 87 and 91. (I predict a W S every year, however.) No need to fret and overanalyze. Baseball is about eternal optimism. Look for another worst to first. It's not a statistically huge leap. A horrible team wins 4 of 10. A great team wins 6 of 10. So much in life is beyond our control. But we can choose our attitude and outlook. Baseball affords us that, even if our outlook is ridiculously unrealistic.

[wsnydes]

8 minutes ago, BJ positive said:

95+ wins. And a trip to the World Series. I correctly predicted 87 and 91. (I predict a W S every year, however.) No need to fret and overanalyze. Baseball is about eternal optimism. Look for another worst to first. It's not a statistically huge leap. A horrible team wins 4 of 10. A great team wins 6 of 10. So much in life is beyond our control. But we can choose our attitude and outlook. Baseball affords us that, even if our outlook is ridiculously unrealistic.

I appreciate the optimism!

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, BJ positive said:

95+ wins. And a trip to the World Series. 

A TRIP to the WS? Not WINNING the WS???

 

And you call yourself an OPTIMIST?????

[wsnydes]

55 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

A TRIP to the WS? Not WINNING the WS???

 

And you call yourself an OPTIMIST?????

Its always good to temper one's expectations. ?

[joefish]

4 hours ago, wsnydes said:

Its always good to temper one's expectations. ?

When all else fails, lower your standards.

[Original_JB]

Back and forth on this one. We will see some tantalizing "look how good they can be" stretches, and some, "OMG, turn the dial" ones. The roller-coaster inconsistency of almost every player on the roster, and the lack of starting pitching has me splitting the difference on the poll question. I see 65-75 wins, max.

[Unwinder]

22 hours ago, BJ positive said:

95+ wins. And a trip to the World Series. I correctly predicted 87 and 91. (I predict a W S every year, however.) No need to fret and overanalyze. Baseball is about eternal optimism. Look for another worst to first. It's not a statistically huge leap. A horrible team wins 4 of 10. A great team wins 6 of 10. So much in life is beyond our control. But we can choose our attitude and outlook. Baseball affords us that, even if our outlook is ridiculously unrealistic.

New best poster just dropped.

[strumdatjag]

Wasn’t this the team picked to win the division last season?  Was last year an aberration???   What if Kepler bounces back, Sano plays all season like he did at the end of 2021, Kiriloff is a hitting machine, Ober and Ryan contribute????    This is a team that could be expected .500 or better.  So hope is springing eternal here.  Omicron burns out the pandemic in one big finale of infections (but reduced hospitalizations and death,) and normal baseball returns with the Twins contending like Bomba Squad 2.0.   I clicked on 80-89.   Now I just have to start believing.