Colóme: What Happened?

[cHawk]

One of the most massive disappointments of 2021 has been Alex Colome. A proven veteran who’s been a consistently good pitcher for years, brought in by the Twins hoping to add some stability to that BP.

Instead Colome took a job as the team chef, and he served up some of the best tasting meatballs you’ll ever try. They were so tasty that they were spread all over the AL for other teams to try, and it didn’t disappoint.

I wonder why he took this route…

On a more serious note though, Colome has been a total disaster. Wanna see evidence? Well here, take a look:

The results of 2021 compared to other years for Colóme speak for themselves. There’s no reason to analyze them, if it could be said it has been. Instead, let’s take a look at specifically the kind of pitcher Colóme is. Specifically, the kind of pitcher he is in 2021 in comparison to the kind of pitcher he was in 2020.

So let’s take a look:

The first thing that pops out to me is that, in 2020 and 2021, he only has two pitches. But he’s had mostly two pitches throughout the last five years. He has had a changeup a couple of years, but he threw it less then 5% of the time (fourth number = %). If you ignore the changeup, he’s mostly been the same over the last five years:

A cutter that averages about 90 MPH that he throws 65-70% of the time

A 4-Seamer that averages about 94 MPH that he throws about 30% of the time.

The thing that sticks out to me most about those statistics is in 2021, he threw his 4-Seamer more than in previous years.

Let’s look at another piece:

 
If you look at his cutter, the Inches of Drop has hung around 26-27 vertically, and horizontally it’s been all over the place. But in 2020, it was about 4 (which is quite a bit higher than any other year of his career).

Yet the results (his stats) are absolutely awful this year.

I know there’s probably more to look at here but when I look at his pitch arsenal I don’t see why it would lead to such a dramatic dropoff.

On an unrelated note, why do I want to eat Italian food all of a sudden…

[Brock Beauchamp]

Those Baseball Savant rankings. ?

[Vanimal46]

He’s been a punching bag all year, for good reason. There was no one who contributed more to the rough start in April than him. He has stabilized in recent months, but he’s not producing for the money we paid him for. The underlying stats show he’s getting by on smoke and mirrors and he will certainly be bought out this winter. 

In the past I was a big proponent of signing established relievers for big money in free agency. I’ve since done a 180 and think it doesn’t matter what their track record was. Relievers are the kings of SSS and who knows when they’ll be great or suck. I certainly don’t. 

[Rosterman]

I think his work speaks for itself. That he got the win the other nite (instead of Ober) is something that should not happen if the closer is a closer. The Twins couldn't trade him (but they could trade Robles). Even if they put him on the waiver wire, no one would probably claim him, so they could just pay him a pro-rated part of the major league minimum.

 

[stockdogg]

I still have this eerie feeling he will be our closer again in April.  I hope not.  Just cut him now and move on. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, stockdogg said:

I still have this eerie feeling he will be our closer again in April.

There’s a zero percent chance of that happening. 

[tony&rodney]

Colome is an example of a common fate for pitchers. The other night he threw three fantastic pitches to Alex Verdugo, who is an excellent hitter. Nearly every other pitch Colome threw was erratic and/or ineffective. Sadly, declining pitchers struggle to recover their touch and command and  some of these guys wind up playing in the amateur adult leagues because they still enjoy baseball and/or their wives want them to get out of the house after they have gone through months of sitting around wondering what to do now that their MLB days are over. Steve Carlton tried to hang on and even spent some time with the Twins. The velocity was still there but the ability to repeat pitches and the loss of command and control will drive a pitcher out of the league. Martin Perez is an example of a pitcher who manages to be effective just enough to hang around. Mike Marshall (recently deceased) won a Cy Young award and was still really good but no longer among the best and was the crankiest guy in baseball when he was let loose. The loss of elite command and control is often the simplest explanation for the demise of a pitcher's career. Alex Colome is a perfect example. For years Colome has enticed batters to put the ball in play with soft contact because of great movement and location and now his sequences of pitching effectively have become elusive. Alex is trying his best to find the magic again and we don't need to castigate his efforts. The Falvines of baseball will decide when a pitcher has reached the end. Baldelli merely decides when to use or pull the pitcher and decide if there is enough there to get through an inning.

[Major League Ready]

We are surprised that a relief pitcher has lost effectiveness? 

[Vanimal46]

27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We are surprised that a relief pitcher has lost effectiveness? 

In the case of Colomé, who relies on the cutter to induce weak contact, not so much. It wouldn’t surprise me if he found his groove in a future season either…

The role is simply too fickle to project effectiveness. This year we’ve seen Aroldis Chapman look vulnerable because he’s lost a tick on his fastball. We’ve seen Kenley Jansen look vulnerable in 2019, only to bounce back this year with a sub 3 ERA. The Rays attempt to solve it by cycling through 20 relievers until they find a couple that stick. 

With bullpens becoming more important each year, I’ve got to imagine folks in front offices are building programs to solve this market inefficiency. If someone like you and me built a case study and came up with a conclusion, we would be offered a job with all 30 teams. 

[4twinsJA]

It seems to be a pattern with Twins FO, picking up a aging pitcher hoping to squeeze one more good year out of him. 

[Danchat]

Great work, cHawk. This does help explain what was going wrong... I didn't realize he only threw two pitches, so his margin for error was always thin. I'm somewhat shocked at how he's had such a great track record before this.

[gunnarthor]

This has been a heck of a disaster for the Twins so this isn't surprising. Still, I wonder how much of certain vets struggles are because of issues that Shoemaker identified rather than then the player turning into a pumpkin.

Happ has looked good in St. Louis but Robles and Berrios have struggled a bit in Boston and Toronto so I'm not sure there is something to it or not but I hope someone smarter than me is looking into it. This is, by far, the worst Twins pitching staff I've ever watched. If it's b/c every pitcher we've tried sucks, fine, bad luck, move on, get better pitchers. But is it b/c the Twins have failed to identify something and that is the reason they are relying on bad pitchers? That would be a problem.

[TheLeviathan]

The rest of the league didn't seem eager to sign him either, something in their scouting/analytics was telling them to steer clear.  I guess we should have too.

[tony&rodney]

Colome has had his bad stretches, for sure. I don't think he is done as an effective relief pitcher though, just maybe no longer a closer. Because he is not a strikeout pitcher the 10th inning this year with a runner on 2B is a terrible place for him. Does everyone else think Colome is toast?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

Colome has had his bad stretches, for sure. I don't think he is done as an effective relief pitcher though, just maybe no longer a closer. Because he is not a strikeout pitcher the 10th inning this year with a runner on 2B is a terrible place for him. Does everyone else think Colome is toast?

Honestly, I don't care. He may be a successful reliever again next year and good for him. He simply needs to go somewhere else.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Honestly, I don't care. He may be a successful reliever again next year and good for him. He simply needs to go somewhere else.

Why, if he can be effective? I lobbied excessively last winter for Liam Hendriks because I wanted a power closer, I still want a power closer.  I really want an effective bullpen. Colome's troubles, Alcala's home run issues, and Duffey's poor location have been very frustrating and if all can be replaced with superior options I'm all in for that. i do think those three are better options than the Edgar Garcia type. It becomes a question of what/who is available. I guess you may have lost all trust in Colome.

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Colome has had his bad stretches, for sure. I don't think he is done as an effective relief pitcher though, just maybe no longer a closer. Because he is not a strikeout pitcher the 10th inning this year with a runner on 2B is a terrible place for him. Does everyone else think Colome is toast?

I would split my bet the Front Office is going to strongly annoy many here when the -- lets see what we got -- crew rolls into spring training. ?

[Brock Beauchamp]

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Why, if he can be effective? I lobbied excessively last winter for Liam Hendriks because I wanted a power closer, I still want a power closer.  I really want an effective bullpen. Colome's troubles, Alcala's home run issues, and Duffey's poor location have been very frustrating and if all can be replaced with superior options I'm all in for that. i do think those three are better options than the Edgar Garcia type. It becomes a question of what/who is available. I guess you may have lost all trust in Colome.

Because even if Colome is successful next season, there are a dozen other guys who can be equally effective for the same price. Go get one of those guys without the baggage. 

[jorgenswest]

His xFIPs have been very stable.

2019: 4.61 

2020: 4.26

2021: 4.50

I don’t think he has changed. They should have done better last winter. They need to do better this winter.

[a-wan]

Colome returning to the mean has to be one of the loudest thuds to register in a long time.

[Dodecahedron]

My take on Colome...

1. I was immediately skeptical when the Twins signed him.  If he were good, I felt he would not have been on the market at that time and at that price.  It seemed very fishy.  Still, I decided to be positive.
2. After his terrible start, I looked deeper.  He has been moved around a lot, and at strange times.  If he were good, someone would have held onto him longer.
3. The Twins seem to have a fundamental lack of understanding about pitchers and how to use them.  Assuming Colome had a lot of homes because of his performance and not because of his attitude (a big assumption), the Twins aren't the right team to crack that nut or even mask his problems so they can get good performances out of him.

The Twins need a lot of help when it comes not just to finding arms, but finding people who know what to do with them.  Colome isn't good, we all know that now, but another team could have probably gotten something better than what the Twins got.

[cHawk]

6 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

My take on Colome...

1. I was immediately skeptical when the Twins signed him.  If he were good, I felt he would not have been on the market at that time and at that price.  It seemed very fishy.  Still, I decided to be positive.
2. After his terrible start, I looked deeper.  He has been moved around a lot, and at strange times.  If he were good, someone would have held onto him longer.
3. The Twins seem to have a fundamental lack of understanding about pitchers and how to use them.  Assuming Colome had a lot of homes because of his performance and not because of his attitude (a big assumption), the Twins aren't the right team to crack that nut or even mask his problems so they can get good performances out of him.

The Twins need a lot of help when it comes not just to finding arms, but finding people who know what to do with them.  Colome isn't good, we all know that now, but another team could have probably gotten something better than what the Twins got.

Maybe, but if he wasn’t good, he probably wouldn’t have been consistently effective for five years prior.

[Dodecahedron]

19 hours ago, cHawk said:

Maybe, but if he wasn’t good, he probably wouldn’t have been consistently effective for five years prior.

I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.  Either he is not a good guy to be around or better teams were able to mask his problems.  He was passed around like a hot potato in his prime years and if he were any good, he would not have been available at this time and at this price.  By the time the Twins picked him up, every team had the opportunity to look at him and none were interested.

 

[cHawk]

22 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.  Either he is not a good guy to be around or better teams were able to mask his problems.  He was passed around like a hot potato in his prime years and if he were any good, he would not have been available at this time and at this price.  By the time the Twins picked him up, every team had the opportunity to look at him and none were interested.

 

Ah, I see. My apologies.

[Battle ur tail off]

This is why you try guys like this out before you sign them. 

 

Watching him pitch the first few times he had a chance this season it was obvious everything he threw was flat out of his hand, he didn't have much movement or velocity on his pitches. Everything was hanging and hanging right over the middle. 

It reminds me of when we traded for Delmon Young back in the day. After 2 games of watching him, it was plain to see this guy was going to get himself out a TON because he swung at anything and everything. Watch with your eyes Twinkies, the evidence is right there for you to see.