Twins DH

[Physics Guy]

 

LeMatieu had a fine year in New York and received justified adulation from all. I'm not sure he is going to be ready to sign elsewhere unless the Yankees simply say no. Their crappy little park was designed for players like him and the NYY have the most money. both sides are being a little stubborn right now but everyone expects LeMatieu back in pinstripes. 

Nevertheless, i wholeheartedly agree that the Twins should at least be making a call and explore the possibility of a LeMatieu contract. He fills so many roles. It just seems like a real stretch for Minnesota.

Totally agree. I don't think there is a chance, but he would check a ton of boxes. As Ted Schwerzler wrote, another option that can probably be acquired relatively cheaply, if the Darvish trade is any indication, is Kris Bryant. He could play 3B, 1B and LF. He would check many of the same boxes as DJ. Again, the only other position needed would be a middle IF utility player.

[tony&rodney]

For some reason Bryant is completely unattractive in my eyes; he is so stiff. When his swing is on there is such poetry in those whistling line drives and when he seems energized he plays decent defense as well.

Too many times, however, Bryant seems out of tune. He is such a difficult player to evaluate going forward.

There is a wide swing in his future from total bust to MVP candidate that I cannot see the Twins taking a chance on his productivity going forward. Bryant does possess utility if he still has any gas left. I guess no.

Having said that, I still find it egregious that the Cubs manipulated his playing time to save a few bucks. The Twins needs to put their best team on the field and ignore a potential extra year from Kirilloff or others. The next CBA will eliminate this bogus loophole and it will be effective immediately. 

Trade options continue to exist and an attractive option to fill DH is accepting Nick Castellanos as the anchor to gaining Sonny Gray (better yet but extremely unlikely Luis Castillo) in a blockbuster with the Reds. This takes care of DH and provides some flexibility for 1B, 3B, and corner OF spots, which admittedly are  not current concerns. There must be some wild discussions amongst baseball executives.

[Shaitan]

I'd rather have 2 years of (overpriced) aging Cruz than 4 of Ozuna or LaMattheiu -- neither of whom are going to be worth their contract at the end.

[baul0010]

There's a good chance Cruz ain't worth his contact this year. I don't see why everyone wants to pretend father time isn't undefeated. We had great years with Cruz but that doesn't mean we have to keep paying him during what will mostly likely be a steep decline. I'd rather lose Cruz a year early than get stuck footing the bill a year late. If we want to contend we need to spend our money wisely. The F.O. spent the Cruz money wisely, he outplayed his contact. If Cruz wants 1 year, give it to him. Anything more and it's time to move on.

[Rosterman]

When Donaldson is at DH, who plays third? That's a BIG potential dropoff.

[DocBauer]

When Donaldson is at DH, who plays third? That's a BIG potential dropoff.

Which why the 10th and 11th man spots are so important for 2021.

 

The good news is there are so many viable options. The bad news is there are too many questions to be answered at this point. And we are stuck in a "what is best" and "what does the FO REALLY think/feel at this point. And part of that does revolve around Cruz.

 

If the FO rolls with Polanco at SS, and believes a normal ST and normal season will happen and Polanco is expected to be healthy and ready to go after a "minor" procedure on his ankle, you can find $ room for Cruz and sign a pair of quality 10th and 11th guys to flesh out the roster. And while OF depth doesn't mean those guys HAVE to play OF, let's just say Hernandez or Profar were brought on board for around $6M. There are so many really solid options floating out there that could help by bringing a decent bat and 3 position flexibility for $2-3M.

 

Example: Hernandez covers over half the field and you then sign from a list of Gyorko, Frazier, Miller and Cabrera, amongst others, for the 11th man spot. Or, you could go cheap for a return of Adrianza even. This actually the easiest and least expensive option.

 

NOW, let's say the FO interest in one of the top SS on the FA market it legitimate, it's going to cost $12-13M with Polanco moving to the 10th man role and you still need an 11th man option you feel good about. Reference the same names I've listed above. With additional needs to be addressed, you've cut in to $ enough you probably can't afford Cruz. And if do, then you have to find a quality SP on the cheap via FA or trade as well as at least ONE more solid BP piece, maybe two, on the inexpensive side.

 

You can't lose the power and production of BOTH Cruz and Rosario in a single off-season. SOMEWHERE a bat has to be added or kept. But until the FO makes some sort of decision at SS and on Cruz, projections of any sort are folly.

[DocBauer]

The problem is that Cruz, like all of us, is mortal. He's also at the age where decline comes in a hurry. The number of great hitters at age 40 is very small in the history of MLB... but the percentage of those same players who were out of baseball completely at age 42 is very high. Cruz is at the age where literally the best hitters in the history of the game stopped being good at baseball.

 

Jim Thome was a beast at age 39. At age 40, he was good. At age 41, he retired.

 

Frank Thomas was a beast at age 38, good at 39, and retired at 40.

 

When the fall comes, it comes in a hurry. I'm moderately comfortable with Cruz signing for his age 41 season but have absolutely no faith in guaranteeing his age 42 season.

 

My line in the sand would be a generous offer for 2021 with an option and generous buyout (say $3m) for 2022. Give him a nice incentive to stick around without risking $15m on a 42 year old hitter.

I can't agree with this more!

 

My hunch/belief is the short 2020 season works in Cruz's favor, leaving more tread on the tire, as it were. I have a strong belief he bas one more really good season left in him. After that, should any sort of 2nd yr option be involved, it would be of the belief he would be at least decent-good while no longer being what he has been.

 

I prefer a 1yr deal. But agreed a nice buyout 2nd yr option with lower salary wouldn't be killer. If he performed well enough to earn the 2nd yr being picked up, it would be a decent risk. At that point, we're talking a 1yr deal. As the old saying goes, is there such a thing as a bad 1yr deal?

[DocBauer]

So looking at the trade simulator, Sano has a Negative trade value so trading him is probably not going to get you what you think it will and also probably means many of us (including me) value him more highly than most of the baseball world.

Agree and disagree. And while I don't believe he belongs directly as a discussion point in this particular OP, he was brought up and I couldn't resist commenting. For the record, I also believe in him and still value him pretty highly at this point.

 

NOT meaning to hijack this thread in any way, but again, his name was brought up.

 

1] Despite frustration with his career thus far, he won't be 28 until May 11th of this new year.

 

2] Despite a late start to 2019 due to a freak and poorly addressed injury, from new conditioning and continued maturity..some of which may be attributed to Cruz's influence...he had the best season of his career with a .923 OPS.

 

3] His career OPS is .829 at this point!

 

4] He not only embraced his move to 1B to make room for Donaldson, he made a video encouraging him to sign on. While we all saw flaws in basic things such as covering 1B instead of going for a ball he shouldn't have, or trying to flatten teammates chasing foul pop-up, (3B instincts and trying too hard), he generally played a good to great 1B.

 

5] 2020 saw vast abnormalities all across baseball with hitters. Can we at least give the maturing Sano a full and "normal" 2021 season before we make any sort of final determination concerning his value?

 

Maybe he will never be the #4 hitter we dreamed about and will settle in, instead, as a very dangerous #5-6 hitter who is streaky but highly productive while playing a quality 1B and also DH. But again, can we just give him 2021 before we chastise or give up on him?

[The Wise One]

 

I'd rather have 2 years of (overpriced) aging Cruz than 4 of Ozuna or LaMattheiu -- neither of whom are going to be worth their contract at the end.

How many longer contracts have been worth it at the end?

[Shaitan]

 

How many longer contracts have been worth it at the end?

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.

 

I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.

 

I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.

[The Wise One]

 

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.

 

I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.

 

I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.

That Cruz provided what he has in every free agent contract is an outlier in the world of baseball . I haven't looked at the last few years contracts to see how much it has improved

[DocBauer]

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.

 

I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.

 

I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.

To some degree the market is shifting. We've seen it the last few years as franchises get a little bit smarter and smarter and look at data. Some scream collusion, but I see FO's just recognizing cost vs production and pulling up the reigns and just saying "whoa".

 

Of course, there will always be certain teams in certain markets that are willing to live with $ value losses in last years of contracts vs gain the early years. Not everyone can afford to do that. Few in fact.

 

Of course, everything from arbitration, service time, etc, is going to change in the next CB.

 

But for NOW, as far as the Twins are concerned, the dilemma is what Cruz is worth post 2020 amidst a covid situation and 2021 speculation.

 

Brock broke things down very succinctly in an earlier post, as Gleeman and John have also done previously. But Cruz is is in that unique and rare category. You can accept a super strong first 30 days in 2020 and a not so great last 30 days plus age and say no way. Of course, he was also the only hitter to produce in the embarrassing playoff loss.

 

Repeating myself yet again, 2020 was a "mixed up" year for a lot of guys. I want to use a word beginning with "F" because that's how crazy it was. I believe Cruz HAS ONE MORE good season in him. Based on history and reality, he may have an decent to good 2nd season available. Do the Twins bank on history or Cruz?

 

One more time again, an honest 1yr deal. A buyout for a 2nd year, if necessary.

[Major League Ready]

 

That's kind of my point. Anybody who is under 35 is asking for deals that will end up being a bigger burden. If they give Cruz a 2 year deal and he's below league avg that year, they only eat salary and a roster spot for half a year or so. And even if he's Jose Offerman at that point, he's still a useful piece on the bench for a late inning BB or HR. Or, if they're not in contention, they trade him to a contender for a bag of balls.

 

I wouldn't sign any player to more than 2 years just to DH.

 

I think the Twins will overpay what Cruz is worth on year 2, but they also significantly underpaid the past 2 years. That's how the market works.

 

Disagree, level of pay on a previous compensation has nothing to do with what any team is willing to pay for a free agent. It's pretty simple, the best way for an agent to make more money for their client and subsequently themselves is to negotiate contracts where compensation exceeds level of production for as long as possible. 

[Shaitan]

 

Disagree, level of pay on a previous compensation has nothing to do with what any team is willing to pay for a free agent. It's pretty simple, the best way for an agent to make more money for their client and subsequently themselves is to negotiate contracts where compensation exceeds level of production for as long as possible. 

I wasn't saying the Twins should pay him more because they owe him that for the past two years.

 

I'm saying that Cruz will ask for more money based on his performance the past 2 seasons.

 

And, in response to others, I also agree and doubt Cruz has 2 years of above average performance left. But I think you have to pay that price to get the 1 above average year. And I think, weighing the pros/cons and comparing what you'll get from others, that it's the right move to overpay him for a second year even you don't believe he'll produce at that value. 

[baul0010]

I'm getting to the point I'll take any action right now!  Sign Cruz, don't sign Cruz, trade, free agent....ANYTHING!  Well, anything more than Hansel Robles.

[baul0010]

 

Agree and disagree. And while I don't believe he belongs directly as a discussion point in this particular OP, he was brought up and I couldn't resist commenting. For the record, I also believe in him and still value him pretty highly at this point.

NOT meaning to hijack this thread in any way, but again, his name was brought up.

1] Despite frustration with his career thus far, he won't be 28 until May 11th of this new year.

2] Despite a late start to 2019 due to a freak and poorly addressed injury, from new conditioning and continued maturity..some of which may be attributed to Cruz's influence...he had the best season of his career with a .923 OPS.

3] His career OPS is .829 at this point!

4] He not only embraced his move to 1B to make room for Donaldson, he made a video encouraging him to sign on. While we all saw flaws in basic things such as covering 1B instead of going for a ball he shouldn't have, or trying to flatten teammates chasing foul pop-up, (3B instincts and trying too hard), he generally played a good to great 1B.

5] 2020 saw vast abnormalities all across baseball with hitters. Can we at least give the maturing Sano a full and "normal" 2021 season before we make any sort of final determination concerning his value?

Maybe he will never be the #4 hitter we dreamed about and will settle in, instead, as a very dangerous #5-6 hitter who is streaky but highly productive while playing a quality 1B and also DH. But again, can we just give him 2021 before we chastise or give up on him?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I feel like Sano needs to settle in at DH.  Sometimes people are just a little too big or a little too clumsy to play in the field.  Lots of great hitters settled in at DH and had amazing careers.  You didn't really want to see Frank Thomas, David Ortiz, or Jim Thome in the field if you didn't have to. 

 

I would like Kirilloff to settle in at 1B.  He should improve our infield defense while also offsetting some of the HR's we'll miss from Rosario.  Hopefully if Sano can focus on hitting, he will have 1 week stikeout fits instead of 3 weekers.  You are correct.  If Cruz and Rosario's HR's are gone...we need to sign or trade for a BIG bat to help replace that production.  

 

[Dodecahedron]

Most teams will be cutting salary or staying the same this year, and possibly next year too. If Cruz is holding out for cash, he may have taken his final at bat.

 

If I were in his position at this point in time, I would probably walk away from the game. It's not going to be a fun year.

[4twinsJA]

Cruz retire or only put another 10-12 million in pocket next year. Would not be difficult decision for me, I will have hard time feeling sorry for Cruz if only gets 10M.

[amjgt]

 

Most teams will be cutting salary or staying the same this year, and possibly next year too. If Cruz is holding out for cash, he may have taken his final at bat.

 

If I were in his position at this point in time, I would probably walk away from the game. It's not going to be a fun year.

 

What's not going to be fun about this year?

[insagt1]

its jan 15th. anyone in Minnesota have additional clarity on whether they want to re-sign Cruz? Also is it out of the realm of possibility to trade Sano, given the right offer? I keep wondering if what we got from him last year is his true ceiling. The long slumps and frequent k's are not very promising. but maybe Twins fans aren't ready to give up on him just yet.

[Thegrin]

No Cruz ?

Sano

Garver

Jeffers

Donaldson

Cave

Kirilloff

Rooker

Turtle

 

Need I continue? 

[jud6312]

 

No Cruz ?

Sano

Garver

Jeffers

Donaldson

Cave

Kirilloff

Rooker

Turtle

 

Need I continue? 

 

Your list should've ended at Rooker.

[Thegrin]

but, but, but ... Turtle is hitting up a storm in the Winter League... thats got t mean something... to someone... sometime...maybe... 

[ashbury]

but, but, but ... Turtle is hitting up a storm in the Winter League... thats got t mean something... to someone... sometime...maybe... 

Pretty sure your post is tongue in cheek, but just to be overly serious, the three other regulars on his team with OPS likewise above 900 are guys with AAAA credentials at best. The league this year looks like it provides good quality opposition for a youngster on the rise to cut his teeth on in winter ball, but that's it.