Article: Health Permitting, Pelfrey Could Deliver

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1261-Health-Permitting-Pelfrey-Could-Deliver

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I've read the article Nick. And I've given you a little bit of my heart - as you can see - because I agree with you.

[maxisagod]

Does he have any arbitration years left?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

No. He's over five years of service, so he'll be a free agent after the season.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Another awesome signing!! And no I'm not joking. I <3 Terry Ryan!!!

[RedBull34]

This is a far superior signing to the Correia signing, but that's not saying much...

[frightwig]

Pelfrey was a 1st round pick... in 2005. But his career numbers aren't much different than Correia's marks.

 

Pelfrey career: 50-54, 4.36 ERA (92 ERA+), 4.50 xFIP, 5.08 K/9, 3.19 BB/9 (4.74 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 4.88 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 in 2011).

 

Correia career: 60-65, 4.54 ERA (88 ERA+), 4.44 xFIP, 6.01 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 (4.21 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 4.68 K/9, 2.42 BB/9 in 2012).

 

They're basically the same type and quality of pitcher (even if Pelfrey's arm is in shape... and we'll see about that). I like Correia a little better because of the question about Pelfrey's health, but also because Correia's control has been a bit better and his groundball rate has been higher, lately. I think there's a fair chance that either one of these guys could be a decent back-end, pitch-to-contact, groundball, 4.50 ERA pitcher. But, I doubt the ceiling, or upside, is much higher than that for either of them, too.

[spideyo]

We actually signed a Scott Boras client, so that's something

[Shane Wahl]

A one-year deal is rarely wrong. But still 4 million? Weird. Anyway, I like adding Pelfrey sans Correia. Now I am a bit worried. Jurrjens is a good choice right now. The upside there is pretty substantial.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't mind scraping the bottom if they make one mid-level acquisition. Scraping and then going for just above the scrapings (Correia) is not good at all.

[Kwak]

"It's just a matter of who is going to emerge." Umm, I think there is a bit more to success than that. Farmers don't just buy seed and throw it on the ground to see what "is going to emerge."

[glunn]

Nick, I think that you have done a great job laying this out, and let's all hope that Pelfrey pans out . I just wish that the Twins had at least one option year in case he is really good.

[mako83]

Couldn't they have sign pelfrey before correria this feels like a make up signing. One more starter they need to get.

[shs_59]

Don't love the move...don't hate it either....

 

would sure rather have paid baker the X-tra 1-2 Million needed compared to Pelfrey to Keep Scotty Baker himself.

 

But Pelfrey has more upside than Corriea, Blacky, Duensing, Hendriks, DeVries, and Deduno . The only exceptions i'd say are Gibson and Worley for the 2013 staff.

 

Now if AAron Hicks starts off in AAA .....for a minumum 3 months i'd be a happy guy heading into 2013...with maybe 1 more Pitcher and a little competition for T-Money Plouffe at 3B.

[shs_59]

Pelfrey was once talked about as the centerpiece for the Johan Santana deal back in 2007 / 08 .

 

Instead we took Humber / Gomez/ Guerra and Mulvey.

But i remember preferring Pelfrey to at least Humber and possibly Mulvey as well. Turns out they're all basically the same pitcher with the exception of Mulvey and Guerra who look like quad A guys.

[SCBackroads]

He certainly can log the innings. Also on the bright side, the Twins don't need to add a Tommy John surgery into the contract negotiations as a benny because he's already got one. [insert rim shot] As long as the search is not over for more, I approve of this signing.

[PopRiveter]

I like this signing by itself, but in context, it is a bit of a reminder that Scot Baker wasn't re-signed. He's the one guy I wanted out of this group and he signed awfully cheap compared with the free-agent crop. He wasn't signed because someone thought they could do better. They couldn't.

[JB_Iowa]

Good article, Nick. Taken by itself, there's nothing wrong with this signing and there does seem to be some potential for upside (of course, there's also potential for downside but that's the whole point of taking a flier).

 

It appears that Ryan's approach to building a starting staff is now the same as the Twins traditional approach to building a buillpen -- just get enough options and something will work out. It has worked most of the time for the Twins BP but there have been some notable exceptions. I guess we'll see whether it works for building a starting staff.

 

I just want to see some action on the remaining $15-$25m that is available to him this offseason. Either purchase some assets that might be helpful down the road or publicly commit to carrying over that money for future use. Either the team needs to abide by its own 50+% policy or they need to publicly acknowledge that they have abandoned it. No spin on this, Mr. St. Peter.

[gunnarthor]

I guess I agree with most everyone else. It's not a bad signing and could work out but I'd like to see the FO do a little bit better, too.

 

I think our defense in center field will be good, no matter who gets the job out of ST. Mastro, Hicks and Benson should all be plus defenders out there. I'm assuming Carroll starts at second. I have no idea who gets the job at short but hopefully we have a glove guy up the middle, since I'm pretty sure he won't hit.

[beckmt]

This is a decent signing. If he makes it fine, if he looks real bad the cost is not super high. Much better than Corriea

[nicksaviking]

Another awesome signing!! And no I'm not joking. I <3 Terry Ryan!!!

 

Um, the other being Correia?

[Winston Smith]

With a defense that may equal some of the poorest or porous (take your pick) in the league these kinds of pitchers don't seem like wise investments. Maybe it's time for Terry to find some guys that can catch the ball?

[cmathewson]

This is like signing Scott Baker on the cheap. I've always liked him, despite the low K totals. At the very least, he and Gibson can tag team in their first full year back from TJ. And if he performs, they can extend him. Solid move. I'm still waiting for Ryan to sign a "pretty darn good pitcher," though.

[Dilligaf69]

I don't mind it...I actually kind of forgotten about him. This is the kind of contract Correia should've gotten...oh well not my money. Hope Pelfrey works out.

[by jiminy]

I agree with everything you say, Nick, and it's true -- it's a much better pickup than Kevin Correia.

 

But "better than a two-year, ten-million-dollar contract to a below average National League pitcher" is a pretty low standard to beat.

 

Shouldn't be be going for, "offers at least a chance of helping the Twins win, either now or in the future"?

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

If you look at Pelfry's numbers--he seems to be a Brett Saberhagen type--a great year followed by a mediocre (at best one). He was great in 2008 and 2010--good ERA, 200 IP double digit wins. In 2009 he sucked with an ERA over 5. In 2011 he was slightly better. In 2012 he was hurt. His upside (2008 and 2010) is greater than anybody but Diamond. If we get that in 2013--fine--tell him thanks for the year and bring up Meyer. If we dont get that--he is gone costing about 5million. I like this,

[ashbury]

And if he performs, they can extend him.

 

This is the weak part of the signing; Boras is his agent. While I am no Boras-hater, I don't think the track record says a successful Pelfrey would sign for a team-friendly 2014 contract.

[TheLeviathan]

But, I doubt the ceiling, or upside, is much higher than that for either of them, too.

 

Exactly, I don't understand a number of the arguments being made here.

 

1) I thought Baker not having a team option in his deal was part of why it was a no-brainer not to sign him? This is totally brushed over when it was a central point in the Baker deal. Not to mention the fact that Pelfrey went in for TJ a full month later than Baker? If you read your response to this signing and Bakers you continue to have a lot of conflicting remarks.

 

2) Upside? Based on where he was drafted? C'mon...we're better than that right? Frightwig listed some damn fine statistics - Pelfrey's prospect listing 6 years ago and his draft position are not real sound places to hang your hat. He's not a bad pitcher, but that is pretty flimsy. For 1.5M more we would've gotten a clearly better pitcher who happened to do it against the AL, not the NL.

 

3) Durability? So apart from missing an entire season and likely not being ready until May of this one counts this in the positives? That's like saying my criminal record was fine except for that year I spent in jail for a bank robbery. Durability HAS to be a concern this first year, it's simply impossible to count that as a positive. If this were a two year deal I'd grant we might see it return in 2014...but in 2013? That is optimism with little to no basis for a guy that won't even be a year removed from major elbow surgery two months into the season.

[LaBombo]

I agree with everything you say, Nick, and it's true -- it's a much better pickup than Kevin Correia.

 

But "better than a two-year, ten-million-dollar contract to a below average National League pitcher" is a pretty low standard to beat.

 

Shouldn't be be going for, "offers at least a chance of helping the Twins win, either now or in the future"?

 

+1. Looks like Ryan has lowered the bar enough with Correia that now we can look forward to the

"upside" of a guy released by a team that finished 11th in the NL in ERA and just traded away their best starter. Given their career 4.50-ish ERA's and the league switch, the Twins will be lucky if either of them manages an ERA much under 5.00.

 

On the other hand, Bill Smith lowered the GM bar so much that Ryan can hardly help but look like a genius.

[Kwak]

Given the acquisition of the promised three starting pitchers apparently nicely under the "available budget" what is the likelihood a useful hitte is signed?