MIN 4, MIL 2: The Randy and Rosie Show

[Nate Palmer]

Randy Dobnak has been so good in 2020, he gave up one run over five innings tonight and his ERA actually went up. Eddie Rosario provided all the offense, hitting a grand slam in the third inning, as the Twins beat the Brewers 4-2.Box Score

Dobnak: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Home Runs: Rosario (4)

Top 3 WPA: Rosario .246, Dobnak .154, Rogers .099

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

Download attachment: Winchart.png

 

The start of the game between the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers didn’t take off like we had hoped for Twins. It felt like the bats were going to struggle just like they had been over the weekend. So when Eddie Rosario narrowly missed a flyball at the wall off the bat of Orlando Arcia to put the Brewers up 1-0. Doom and gloom began to set in once again.

 

All it took to get runs on the board and Dobnak cruising was a quirky third inning at the plate. Alex Avila led off with a solid single up the middle. Max Kepler reached on a swinging bunt towards shortstop. Polanco gained an extra life after Christian Yelich was ruled to drop a foul ball pop-up, and hit into a fielder's choice leaving runners on 1st and 3rd with one out.

 

With Nelson Cruz at the plate, Adrian Hauser plunked him right on the elbow to load the bases for Rosario. The man who coined the name Bomba Squad hit what may end up being one of the more relief-giving Bombas of the season. One that more than made up for Rosario’s misplay in the field earlier in the game, putting the Twins up 4-1. Those 4 runs would be all it took to get the win in 4-2 fashion.

 

The reason those runs were all that the Twins needed was because Randy Dobnak just continued to do Randy Dobnak things. The run surrendered in the second inning was only the second run given up by Dobnak this season. After that he really hit his stride and started to retire Brewer batter after Brewer batter. The current steadying force of the rotation finished with 5.0 innings pitched, 4 hits, 1 earned run, 3 strikeouts, and 1 walk.

 

Oh and in case you wanted to think about how good he was just a bit more there is this fun little graphic.

 

 

From the sixth inning on, the bullpen came in and did their job. The only hiccup was a solo homerun surrendered by Sergio Romo as he faced Keston Hiura. Tonight we got to see Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers as well get on the mound and work the end of a game like we have grown used to seeing them do to close out a game. Even if Manny Pina reaching second base in the ninth caused a bit of a higher heart rate.

 

While there is plenty to celebrate with this win that breaks the 4-game losing streak the Twins were on, there are still some reasons for concern for a team with a World Series in their sights. What may be looming largest is that the offense isn’t quite yet at the level we came to expect over 2019.

 

That doesn’t mean that the Twins need to score 10 runs every game (but we wouldn’t complain). With 7 hits, once again the Twins needed to bunch together the right amount of hits to get the job done. On the other hand, that could be a win in itself, being the Twins played without Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, and injured Josh Donaldson in the lineup.

 

What stood out to you from tonight's Twins 4-2 win? Let us know below in the comments!

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Download attachment: Bullpen.png

 

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[wabene]

You could use Alcala, Clippard, May, Duffey and or Romo tomorrow no probs. See that's not so bad, start another win streak Baldelli.

[jimbo92107]

Usually when we see stuff like Dobnak has, he would be a long reliever. Sinkers, curves, change up's, all low in the zone. Apparently he's better than that. Looks like he's starting to vary the speed of his offerings, making it even harder to square them up. Today he got just 3 K's, but he got lots of whiffs, too. 

 

Randy Dobnak: Stud horse.

[Otwins]

Calling Rosario's attempt to catch that ball in the first a misplay is a little harsh.  That ball was smoked and missed being a home run by about a foot,

[bighat]

Another one-inning-wonder for the Twins. They seem to score maybe 1 or 2 innings per game max, and they never tack on runs late in a ballgame.

 

That said, a much-needed win. Eddie has had a GREAT year so far, and so has Randy Dobnak. Nice to see Rogers come back after the blown save with a nice inning as well.

 

Let's take 2 of 3 in MIL.

[DocBauer]

My only question is why not the 6th inning for Dobnak? Is it getting everyone a chance to pitch and stay sharp? Is it to keep confidence up for the SP, Dobnak in this case?

[Linus]

My only question is why not the 6th inning for Dobnak? Is it getting everyone a chance to pitch and stay sharp? Is it to keep confidence up for the SP, Dobnak in this case?

I’m with you Doc. Dobnak was rolling and likely would have given them another inning with only a dozen more pitches

[ashbury]

Another one-inning-wonder for the Twins. They seem to score maybe 1 or 2 innings per game max, and they never tack on runs late in a ballgame.

You're not imagining things. It's still Small Sample Size territory, but they score at about half the rate in innings 5-8 than they do in 1-4.

 

Most seasons, inning 1 is tops (the manager gets to choose his batting order, after all) and inning 2 is lowest (same reasoning) but after that they're all within about 10%, until the 9th (which often isn't a complete inning).

 

League-wide, 2020 is shaping up a little weird in that respect, as innings 1-2 are more than a little low. But again, it's early.

 

Thank you baseball-reference.com!

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

My only question is why not the 6th inning for Dobnak? Is it getting everyone a chance to pitch and stay sharp? Is it to keep confidence up for the SP, Dobnak in this case?

I don't think they wanted him to face Yelich a third time.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Was nice to see winning baseball again! Dobnak the steadying horse the rotation needs. He has proved again and again that he deserves a spot in this rotation.

[puckstopper1]

 

Was nice to see winning baseball again! Dobnak the steadying horse the rotation needs. He has proved again and again that he deserves a spot in this rotation.

Totally agree TouchEmAllGuy.

 

Dobnak's outing was greatly needed - especially since our so-called "ace" was not able to pitch well enough to break the losing streak in the game before.

[Dantes929]

At a minimum he has so far proved that he should have been one of the top 5 to start the season.   Just think if the top 5 had stayed healthy and just pitched mediocre Dobnak would still be on the outside looking in, probably pitching long relief.

[Aggies7]

imagine being in a coma since the 80's and waking up to find out that 5 IP from a starter is now the accepted norm. 

[Darius]

Dobnak is a phenomenal story, for a few reasons:

 

1). He came out of nowhere. Has never been a highly touted prospect. That’s not something that happens anymore (rarely), for a number of reasons (more information, better player analysis, etc).

 

2) Similar to 1 - nobody gave him a chance. I didn’t. I wasn’t happy he started a playoff game. I’ve long thought that if he’s a rotation fixture, we’re in trouble. I couldn’t have been more wrong.

 

3). Of course, the Uber driver thing has become a national story.

 

4) The way he presents himself. His mustache and glasses make him a folk hero, in a way. Brilliant self-marketing on his part, whether intentional or not.

 

5). He’s showing the league that the power-pitching trends shouldn’t be gospel. How many guys like Dobnak don’t get a chance because they don’t fit that mold?

 

Really impressive guy. Very inspirational. On top of all of that...a damn good pitcher.

[gil4]

 

Polanco gained an extra life after Christian Yelich was ruled to drop a foul ball pop-up

Ruled correctly, no matter how much it confused the Twins' TV team.  

 

Excerpt from the definition of a catch in the rule book:  "In establishing the validity of the catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and intentional."

 

His throwing hand was not by the glove when the ball popped out and he was not yet in the process of the transfer. He tried to quickly open and close the glove to get the ball deaper into the pocket, and in doing so it came out.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xn6rm5Odtfs

[rdehring]

 

Another one-inning-wonder for the Twins. They seem to score maybe 1 or 2 innings per game max, and they never tack on runs late in a ballgame.

 

That said, a much-needed win. Eddie has had a GREAT year so far, and so has Randy Dobnak. Nice to see Rogers come back after the blown save with a nice inning as well.

 

Let's take 2 of 3 in MIL.

No bighat. Let's take all three.

[ashbury]

Ruled correctly, no matter how much it confused the Twins' TV team.  

 

Excerpt from the definition of a catch in the rule book:  "In establishing the validity of the catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and intentional."

 

His throwing hand was not by the glove when the ball popped out and he was not yet in the process of the transfer. He tried to quickly open and close the glove to get the ball deaper into the pocket, and in doing so it came out.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xn6rm5Odtfs

The rule is also very explicit that falling down is not a saving factor, but on the contrary is a reason to question the catch if it pops out:

 

It is not a catch, however, if simultaneously or immediately following his contact with the ball, he collides with a player, or with a wall, or if he falls down, and as a result of such collision or falling, drops the ball.

 

Said another way, he needed to make that slide in order to catch the ball. You'd better hang onto the ball all the way - you can't blame the controlled fall that caused you to be able to reach the ball safely in the first place.

 

It's a really well thought-out rule. Brewer fans may naturally feel they got robbed, but they didn't.

 

[rdehring]

Last night was another example of why Eddie Rosario is so very important to this team. Yes, he came up again with another chance with lots of runners on base. But damn, he got it done again in big style. He really needs to remain part of this team until their opportunity to win is over.

 

And speaking of his so-called misplay, my old eyes told me it would have been a hell of a play to get that one. But I got a feeling Eddie thought he should have had it and that may have been in the back of his mind when he stepped into the box with ducks on the pond.

[Nate Palmer]

 

Calling Rosario's attempt to catch that ball in the first a misplay is a little harsh.  That ball was smoked and missed being a home run by about a foot,

Misplay may have been a poorly used word there. I didn't really mean to put as much fault on Rosie as that probably came off as. 

[gil4]

 

The rule is also very explicit that falling down is not a saving factor, but on the contrary is a reason to question the catch if it pops out:

 

It is not a catch, however, if simultaneously or immediately following his contact with the ball, he collides with a player, or with a wall, or if he falls down, and as a result of such collision or falling, drops the ball.

 

Said another way, he needed to make that slide in order to catch the ball. You'd better hang onto the ball all the way - you can't blame the controlled fall that caused you to be able to reach the ball safely in the first place.

 

It's a really well thought-out rule. Brewer fans may naturally feel they got robbed, but they didn't.
 

It is a lot more detailed than the NFHS rules I normally deal with, but both get to pretty close to the same place.