Trading for Price and Betts

[jkcarew]

Not enough concern here with losing Balazovic, IMO. Even when you have the window, you should be trying to steer away from dealing from the very top of an area of obvious organizational weakness. If the partner wants arguably our top starting pitching prospect (easy to argue right now, given Graterol's current status)...for one year of Mookie Betts...no thanks. Much more willing to consider if we're talking about our top one or two position/hitting prospects. Hitters we got.

 

 

[Flipper1a]

I wouldn't mortgage the near future for those two and also tie up salary.  Hard no on any Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Balz, Duran, Alcala, and Graterol offers (basically top 5, 5-10 I wouldn't either).

 

Raley, Javier, Gordon, Raley, Wade, Cave---yes.

[twinkiesfan11]

I would argue that is exactly where the Twins want to be and that is a World Series champions. With that being said I don't think this is the deal that helps them get there. I much rather have Sale than Price.

As prospects the only two that matter to me are Balazovic and Lewis, and I would be willing to trade them but not for Price.

Of course they want to be World Series champions. My argument is that it would be better to follow the Giants, Royals and Astros (minus the cheating) models of getting there with mostly homegrown talent on rookie or reasonable contracts so they can contend for multiple years. It feels like a lot of Twins fans want to see Falvey follow the Dombrowski model, empty the prospect cupboard and overpay in free agency, whatever it takes to win now. Even if they chose that course of action and actually won I have a feeling those same fans would be the first ones complaining when the bottom falls out and we’re back to tank mode. As a long time Twins and Wolves fan I’m tired of tank mode and glad that this FO seems to have a much more long-term focused approach.

[TNTwinsFan]

I don't like the idea of trading away Balazovic...I think that kid's going to be a stud. Also, that's a LOT of prospect capital for 1 year of Betts and a #2 at best in Price that probably doesn't move the needle in the playoffs as much as they may think.

 

The one pitcher the Twins should have given a flyer to that they didn't, and can't now, is Alex Wood. I bet he pitches as well as David Price does this year... I vote "No" on this trade proposal.

[jkcarew]

 

Now that I think about it more, this ask from the Sox is pretty laughable.

If you're talking about the "“two high-end prospects just to front the deal" part of this...yes, laughable.

 

Clearly, Boston will consider Betts' expiring contract as kind of a last-chance opportunity to get themselves out from under Price's deal. The unrealistically high opening price is obligatory. But humorous nonetheless.

[Monkeypaws]

Lets help the Red Sox out of a salary jam and give up some of our best prospects to boot for a rental and an overpriced pitcher.

 

No thanks.

[Darius]

The only way I’m taking Price is if they eat half the contract and send me a prospect. If he’s with Betts, it seriously reduces what I’d give up.

 

Betts would look pretty good in the outfield. With Betts, Buxton, and Kepler you’re looking at one of the best defensive outfields of all time (assuming he or Kepler are just as good in left). The bat wouldn’t look too shabby slotted in for Rosario, either. However, there is zero chance of retaining Betts beyond 2020. So, I’m not rolling out the red carpet in terms of prospects there.

 

The whole discussion is an exercise in futility. There is absolutely no way the ownership OKs adding another $20+ million dollar contract to the payroll, let alone two. I can only imagine the amount of Rolaids the Pohlad clan has gone through after adding Donaldson and surpassing $130M. The FO will never give up the prospects necessary for Boston to eat payroll (they’ve basically said they’re not trading Lewis, Kirilloff, etc).

[Darius]

While I believe the Twins should be closer to $160m in payroll, this would put them around $180m, which is probably unreasonable.

 

Unreasonable compared to what?

 

We always compare this team to other markets in terms of what it can spend. But what about other pro teams in this market:

 

I’m sure there is more recent data, but in 2015 the Twins made over $21M in profit. No other professional sports team in the market netted more than $7 (Vikings about $5M, T-Wolves about $6M, Wild took a loss).

 

It would be unreasonable to Pohlads, who like to maintain their massive profits. But, even after signing Donaldson, it can still be argued that what they are doing in terms of payroll is unreasonable.

 

Keep in mind they bought the team for $44M. They’ve made a billion in unrealized appreciation and they make 50% return on their initial investment annually (based on 2015 numbers....I’m sure the profit in 2019 was closer to $40-$50M). Demanding a return on your investment of that magnitude is not only unreasonable, it’s downright greedy. Especially when a significant portion of that return was initially financed by the taxpayer (Target Field).

 

I’ve given the Cheap Pohalds a break for a few days because of Donaldson, but let’s not act like these guys are anywhere near blowing open the bank vault, here. They’re still Scrooge McDuck personified.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Unreasonable compared to what?

We always compare this team to other markets in terms of what it can spend. But what about other pro teams in this market:

I’m sure there is more recent data, but in 2015 the Twins made over $21M in profit. No other professional sports team in the market netted more than $7 (Vikings about $5M, T-Wolves about $6M, Wild took a loss).

It would be unreasonable to Pohlads, who like to maintain their massive profits. But, even after signing Donaldson, it can still be argued that what they are doing in terms of payroll is unreasonable.

Keep in mind they bought the team for $44M. They’ve made a billion in unrealized appreciation and they make 50% return on their initial investment annually (based on 2015 numbers....I’m sure the profit in 2019 was closer to $40-$50M). Demanding a return on your investment of that magnitude is not only unreasonable, it’s downright greedy. Especially when a significant portion of that return was initially financed by the taxpayer (Target Field).

I’ve given the Cheap Pohalds a break for a few days because of Donaldson, but let’s not act like these guys are anywhere near blowing open the bank vault, here. They’re still Scrooge McDuck personified.

Oh, just stop. That's not what I said nor am I defending the Pohlads in any way.

 

My point is that, from a purely competitive long-term standpoint, going from $130m to $180m in a single offseason on a team that needs to continue to offer raises to its home-grown players enters unreasonable territory unless you then expect the Twins to be at a $200m payroll in 2022.

 

Besides, in 2019, a $180m payroll would have put the Twins fifth in all of baseball.

[Twins1964]

Good Morning,

 

Per the MLBTR article linked, how would y'all feel about trying to swing a deal with the Red Sox for Mookie Betts and David Price? It appears the Sox are trying to package them together for a couple of high end prospects and it could be a nice opportunity for the Twins.

 

What does a deal look like in this case? Would the Pohlads ever eat this much money to go after a World Series championship?

 

My proposed deal would look something like this:

 

Twins Receive:

Mookie Betts (OF)

• 2020 Salary - $27,000,000
• Free Agent at end of 2020 Season

David Price (SP)

• 2020-2022 Salary - $32,000,000
• Free Agent at end of 2022 Season
• Red Sox retain 20% of salary ($6,400,000 per year, $19,200,000 total)

Thaddeus Ward (RHP)

• Red Sox #10 Prospect, 2018 5th Round Pick from UCF
• Rule 5 Draft Eligible: December 2021
• Projected to hit the Majors in Late 2021

Red Sox Receive:

 

Eddie Rosario (OF)

• 2020 Salary - $7,750,000
• Free Agent at end of 2021 Season

Fernando Romero (RHP)

• Pre-Arb with 6 years of control remaining
• Former top prospect

Royce Lewis (SS/CF)

• Twins #1 Prospect (per TD)
• Pre-arb with 6 years of control remaining
• ETA of Late 2021/2022

Jordan Balazovic (RHP)

• Twins #4 Prospect (per TD)
• Pre-arb with 6 years of control remaining
• ETA of Late 2021

Brent Rooker (1B/OF)

• Twins #14 Prospect (per TD)
• Pre-arb with 6 years of control remaining
• ETA of Mid to Late 2020

Wander Javier (SS)

• Twins #20 Prosper (per TD)
• Pre-arb with 6 years of control remaining
• ETA of Late 2022-2023

This deal offers the Red Sox some much needed prospect capital and salary relief, as well as a cheap replacement for Mookie Betts in Eddie Rosario. I feel JD Martinez could really help Eddie become a dynamite player in Boston. This deal also offers Romero a much needed change of scenery and an opportunity to get back on track. 

 

For the Twins, this takes their "wide open window" and shatters the frame around it. Betts is a former MVP in the prime of his career who can catapult this team to the best record in baseball. While we probably won't be able to re-sign him, one year of Betts is enough to make this team the definitive favorite to come out of the American League. Secondly, which is crazy, is the addition on a legitimate #2-3 starter in David Price. He provides much needed help at the top of the rotation and has postseason credibility that goes back over a decade.

 

It might take a one or two more low end prospects from the Twins to push the needle on this, but I think this could be a framework to getting a massive lineup upgrade and a very good starting pitcher.

 

Thanks for any comments or ideas you may have!

 

 

Utterly ridiculous. Makes no sense at all. An absolute waste of space. Twins are not set up for “ win this year “ mentality. Unlike Fletcher’s Wild trade deadline abortions, Twins front office is not that stupid. Garbage article.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 
Utterly ridiculous. Makes no sense at all. An absolute waste of space. Twins are not set up for “ win this year “ mentality. Unlike Fletcher’s Wild trade deadline abortions, Twins front office is not that stupid. Garbage article.

First, this isn't an "article", it's a user-generated post about what the Twins could possibly do this offseason.

 

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[twins_89]

Two things make this extremely unlikely. First, I see no realistic chance the Twins take on that much additional salary. Second, giving up so much prospect capital while taking back Price is a significant overpay and should be avoided at all costs.

[RaoulDuke]

I think they should trade for Archer.  Costs less in salary and somewhere in the same realm prospect wise.  Probably a better bet to bounce back than Price because of his youth + more likely to get a boost from a modern analytical approach.

 

Saving Gerrit Cole from Pittsburg sure worked out well for the Astros.

 

 

[akmanak]

I don't think there is any reason to spend another dime on offense at this point. Unlike quality pitching you could easily pick someone up for much cheaper around the trade deadline if need be.

 

When it comes to pitching, well that is a different story but I really don't think Price is worth the "price" we would have to give up to obtain him.

[ewen21]

I have no interest in a guy like Price. He has cache because of what he did years ago. He is not the same guy and even when he was he was notoriously horrendous against the Yankees. Not plain old bad....I’m talking horrendous.

 

If the goal is to get someplace in the playoffs this isn’t the answer.

 

I’m ok with those names you want to trade. Lewis is not Derek Jeter. He’s a tradable piece. That is how all prospects should be viewed at this point. We have a nucleus of guys in their mid 20s so we don’t need to treat prospects like they’re gold. Treat them like they are meat. Use them.

[ewen21]

I think they should trade for Archer. Costs less in salary and somewhere in the same realm prospect wise. Probably a better bet to bounce back than Price because of his youth + more likely to get a boost from a modern analytical approach.

 

 

Archer has been mediocre for a few years. No thanks

Saving Gerrit Cole from Pittsburg sure worked out well for the Astros.

[beckmt]

.Hard pass, let someone else pay the price.  Unfortunately, the players pay the price for a situation like the Red Sox, Cubs, etc are in.  Over 30 players unless elite are going to be on 1 - 2 year deals and on make good contracts the minute they have an off year. 

[Tomj14]

 

Of course they want to be World Series champions. My argument is that it would be better to follow the Giants, Royals and Astros (minus the cheating) models of getting there with mostly homegrown talent on rookie or reasonable contracts so they can contend for multiple years. It feels like a lot of Twins fans want to see Falvey follow the Dombrowski model, empty the prospect cupboard and overpay in free agency, whatever it takes to win now. Even if they chose that course of action and actually won I have a feeling those same fans would be the first ones complaining when the bottom falls out and we’re back to tank mode. As a long time Twins and Wolves fan I’m tired of tank mode and glad that this FO seems to have a much more long-term focused approach.

I haven't seen anybody on this site type the Twins need to empty the cupboard in a trade. If the twins minor league system is as great as everybody thinks (and I do) trading two pieces for a few years of control for a top notch pitcher isn't in anyway the Dombrowski model. As far as overpaying free agents that is the cost of doing business in MLB if you want top notch talent and if you want to win and win big sometimes you have to bite the bullet when the window is open.

 

Trading for a player that is 1 playing season away from free agency with almost no chance of him resigning is not usually a good move, but if you could do it was middle tier or flier prospects when you are loaded in the minors isn't a bad idea, trading away your top guys is.

 

For Chris Sale I would seriously have to consider that trade, he is 30 years old and has been one of the best pitchers on the planet for quite a few years, the innings the last two years are a being worrisome but he even with that he has been better than Odo and the Twins are paying him 17.8

[Number3]

Donaldson signing just not enough? That made perfect sense because it moves Sano to first which was essentially open. Plus it improves the offense and defense at the same time and adds a little fire to the lineup. But that is still not enough. The core of the lineup that won 101 games deserves to be run out there one more time at least  Signing a Betts or a Price for big bucks would destroy the makeup of the team and would be a disaster. I would like Betts to be available as a ringer if the Twins have an off season bowling team. He is great on those PBA/amateur tv bowling tournaments.

[Tomj14]

 

I wouldn't mortgage the near future for those two and also tie up salary.  Hard no on any Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Balz, Duran, Alcala, and Graterol offers (basically top 5, 5-10 I wouldn't either).

 

Raley, Javier, Gordon, Raley, Wade, Cave---yes.

I believe the Twins could offer the 6 you have there to every team in the league and no team would give you a good starting pitcher or even a prospect as good the 5 you wouldn't trade (except Alcala), if you only offer quantity in trades with no quality that is what you get in return.
 

[dex8425]

 

Without being able to re-sign Betts, you are giving up a whole heck of a lot for 2 more years of Price.  While Betts and Price being in the fold for 2020 would increase the Twins WS odds, it doesn't guarantee them anything.  I'd have to pass.  If you are going to trade away Lewis, IMO, it needs to be for a younger SP with at least 2 years or control.

Especially if we're ALSO trading away Jordy Blaze. I'm almost more reluctant to give up Balazovic than I am Lewis at this point if I'm the Twins, given that he looks like the most sure-thing starting pitching prospect in our system.

[dex8425]

Of course the Red Sox are starting the negotiations high for now. The longer you wait the more the price (pun intended) comes down. 

 

Like others have said I don't think it's worth talking about this because the Twins are not going to have a 180 million dollar payroll, unfortunately. 

 

If they could swing 180 million for one year, I'd wait until March, then offer them:

1. Rosario or Cave, whichever one they want

2. Luke Raley

3. Royce Lewis

 

See if that gets Bloom to pick up the phone if we eat all of Price's contract. 

[dex8425]

 

 I would like Betts to be available as a ringer if the Twins have an off season bowling team. He is great on those PBA/amateur tv bowling tournaments.

He is actually really good at bowling, thanks for reminding me.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Of course the Red Sox are starting the negotiations high for now. The longer you wait the more the price (pun intended) comes down.

 

Like others have said I don't think it's worth talking about this because the Twins are not going to have a 180 million dollar payroll, unfortunately.

 

If they could swing 180 million for one year, I'd wait until March, then offer them:

1. Rosario or Cave, whichever one they want

2. Luke Raley

3. Royce Lewis

 

See if that gets Bloom to pick up the phone if we eat all of Price's contract.

If we're eating the entire contract, we should be getting Betts for nothing.

Really we should still be getting a pretty good prospect in addition to Betts, but in an effort to get the deal done, I could see forgoing that.

[ewen21]

I wouldn't mortgage the near future for those two and also tie up salary. Hard no on any Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Balz, Duran, Alcala, and Graterol offers (basically top 5, 5-10 I wouldn't either).

 

Raley, Javier, Gordon, Raley, Wade, Cave---yes.

Ick. I’m sorry but I’m tired of that phrase

 

Up and down our lineup we have guys under 28 years old. These are good everyday players and we have several locked up for a few years. How is trading Lewis and any other position player “mortgaging the future”??

We are a young team as it is with two notable players exceptions.

 

When you have a nucleus of players in their mid-20s you might as well deal prospects to complement the young talent. This is something Terry Ryan never seemed to understand.

 

All that said, NO WAY on Price and why trade anything for Betts? I like Betts but that doesn’t make sense

[bustedstuff88]

Im confused...I dont know why we would ever give them anything if we are the ones taking on the bad contract and they indeed want to get away from the luxury tax threshold....

 

So my trade would be taking on Price and Betts salaries and that is all. Redsox get payroll relief.

 

No way they are getting anything of substance back. No way in hell. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You are also getting a first round pick when Betts turns down your qualifying offer, but I appreciate the insight.

I believe this rule has changed. The team that signs him no longer gives up a first.  

[Major League Ready]

 

Unreasonable compared to what?

We always compare this team to other markets in terms of what it can spend. But what about other pro teams in this market:

I’m sure there is more recent data, but in 2015 the Twins made over $21M in profit. No other professional sports team in the market netted more than $7 (Vikings about $5M, T-Wolves about $6M, Wild took a loss).

It would be unreasonable to Pohlads, who like to maintain their massive profits. But, even after signing Donaldson, it can still be argued that what they are doing in terms of payroll is unreasonable.

Keep in mind they bought the team for $44M. They’ve made a billion in unrealized appreciation and they make 50% return on their initial investment annually (based on 2015 numbers....I’m sure the profit in 2019 was closer to $40-$50M). Demanding a return on your investment of that magnitude is not only unreasonable, it’s downright greedy. Especially when a significant portion of that return was initially financed by the taxpayer (Target Field).

I’ve given the Cheap Pohalds a break for a few days because of Donaldson, but let’s not act like these guys are anywhere near blowing open the bank vault, here. They’re still Scrooge McDuck personified.

 

Wouldn’t the best comparison be the closest profile available? In this case that would be MLB teams with the most similar revenue. The top row are teams closest in revenue to the Twins. The 2nd row is the next wave up with the exception of Detroit. They are an anomaly among all MLB teams in terms of spending over the past decade. Therefore, I did not include them but I guess you could say they are an example that suggests it could be done.

 

Detroit had a run of reasonable success from 2011-2014 as their payroll ran up. Eventually it reached 198M in 2015. They lost $35M and produced 74 wins, fired their leadership and blew up the roster. The accelerated spending did not yield greater success. It led to a disaster. Over the 5 year period of 2015-2019 they won an average of 67 games.

 

 

The five teams closest to the Twins in revenue averaged $96M in payroll and the average peak for payroll was $126M. The five closest teams over the decade were my best guess. None of those teams came anywhere near $160M much less $180M. Actually, the Twins 2020 payroll will be the highest of the past decade for the teams most similar revenue. All of these teams had higher revenue in 2018 but the twins due have the capacity to equal or even surpass the closest 5-6 teams. Also, I did not include 2020 because the available tools don’t have all of the 2020 information. 

[dex8425]

 

Im confused...I dont know why we would ever give them anything if we are the ones taking on the bad contract and they indeed want to get away from the luxury tax threshold....

 

So my trade would be taking on Price and Betts salaries and that is all. Redsox get payroll relief.

 

No way they are getting anything of substance back. No way in hell. 

 

They are asking high for now. I agree they are not getting two top prospects from anyone for one year of Betts at a high salary plus Price at a salary no team wants.  The question is what would you give them to get a deal done today instead of later in the year when the price goes down and more teams are interested.

 

Price has the lowest value on baseballtradevalues.com of any starting pitcher in baseball, lol. Negative 55. Not as bad as Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera though. 

[Mr. Brooks]

They are asking high for now. I agree they are not getting two top prospects from anyone for one year of Betts at a high salary plus Price at a salary no team wants. The question is what would you give them to get a deal done today instead of later in the year when the price goes down and more teams are interested.

 

Price has the lowest value on baseballtradevalues.com of any starting pitcher in baseball, lol. Negative 55. Not as bad as Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera though.

I don't think they're ever going to have teams knocking down their door trying to get a deal done.

So I'm not worried about getting a deal done before another team jumps in.

Betts is the cost of unloading Price's contract. I wouldn't personally move off that stance. In fact, I think its it's a very generous offer to not also ask for a good prospect or two in addition to Betts.