Still waiting...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The off-season isn't exactly a timed race. Guys do come off the board, but it doesn't really make sense to talk about "pace" when there is a ton of time left, lots of unsigned players, and various potential trade targets.

 

I will criticize the front office if they cut payroll. But it's unreasonable to act like the off-season is over or even close to over. 

I'm not sure what you expect on a site that has a new, Twins-focused thread for each *day* of the winter meetings! It's pretty much set up to micro-analyze things. And frankly, it's still very much an open question whether this front office will actually make major moves (and whether they need to, of course).

 

As for the offseason being over, doom and gloom, etc. -- there's also lots of hyperbole. Welcome to the internet! I find it's often best to ignore it. (So I never -- I repeat, NEVER -- make or reply to hyperbolic posts! )

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

LOL stop with this nonsense. Marlins aren’t getting Rosario and only giving up Alcantara. They’ll need to give up a lot more if they want Rosario

Even if you don't think Alcantara has top-of-the-rotation potential, he was an above league average SP last year, in a full season (32 starts, 197 innings), at age 23. He has 5 years of team control left -- including the next two at league minimum salary.

 

I get that Rosario is a good player himself, and perhaps unfairly maligned at times, but I wouldn't be calling a straight-up Rosario-for-Alcantara swap "nonsense" from the Twins side.

[bird]

 

I think fans expect a team that is contending not to cut payroll by tens of millions.......which they are on pace to do right now. They have 30-40 million, and there are good FA pitchers out there.....we'll see what happens with the two or three remaining most likely to be impact starting pitchers.

 

mike sixel
12:30 Are the Twins going to sit out major FA again this year, despite sitting on 30-40MM in payroll space? Who will acquire the better pitcher the rest of this off season, the Twins or White Sox?

 

 

Dan Szymborski
12:31 I suspect so. I was disappointed they didn't go after Corbin last year.
Sure, they had a fine year, but they *cut* payroll from Mauer's last year

 

 

I don't understand fans' fanatic and almost neurotic fixation on dollar figures. Who gives a rip what that number is if the FO gets the team from 78 to 101 in one year? And you're telegraphing an image that the sky is somehow falling because, on December 12th, you want to complain about a payroll number you know very well will go up. 

 

Do you seriously believe the ONLY way for Falvey to succeed at solving this rotation problem well enough to at least give them a fighting chance in the postseason is to write oversized checks for a stupid number of years to the highest priced FA's? Do you truly believe they are punting away all chances of success if they don't sign one of MadBum, Ryu, or Keuchel? Am I misunderstanding your lament?

 

This FO has not provided you with the ammunition to accuse them of some pattern of being overly thrifty. Unless you accuse them of not *really making bona fide offers to the likes of Wheeler. This is their very first off-season with that proverbial breeze coming through the window.

[jud6312]

 

By this definition, were the Houston Astros a pathetic abject failure in 2019?

 

No matter what level of competition it is, if you don't win the championship you have failed. That doesn't mean it's "pathetic" (your word, not mine), but it is still a failure. Nobody should settle mediocrity.

[nicksaviking]

 

Totally agree. April games are 50/50 at best for good weather, but it's not like if you played for the Angles you wouldn't have any chance of running into crappy April/May weather on the road.

 

I get it. It's a negative, but I've always though more has been made of it that what it should be.

 

I totally agree, it's way more about perception than it is reality. Perception almost always kicks reality's butt though. Not just with this baseball stuff, with everything.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't understand fans' fanatic and almost neurotic fixation on dollar figures. Who gives a rip what that number is if the FO gets the team from 78 to 101 in one year? And you're telegraphing an image that the sky is somehow falling because, on December 12th, you want to complain about a payroll number you know very well will go up. 

 

Do you seriously believe the ONLY way for Falvey to succeed at solving this rotation problem well enough to at least give them a fighting chance in the postseason is to write oversized checks for a stupid number of years to the highest priced FA's? Do you truly believe they are punting away all chances of success if they don't sign one of MadBum, Ryu, or Keuchel? Am I misunderstanding your lament?

 

This FO has not provided you with the ammunition to accuse them of some pattern of being overly thrifty. Unless you accuse them of not *really making bona fide offers to the likes of Wheeler. This is their very first off-season with that proverbial breeze coming through the window.

 

I never said pretty much any of what you are attributing to me here.....I've repeatedly said we'll see what happens.

 

The reason fans look at payroll is because signing free agents is one way to get better, and they only cost money, not prospects. I'm assuming that was a rhetorical question, though.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't understand fans' fanatic and almost neurotic fixation on dollar figures. Who gives a rip what that number is if the FO gets the team from 78 to 101 in one year? And you're telegraphing an image that the sky is somehow falling because, on December 12th, you want to complain about a payroll number you know very well will go up. 

 

While I agree about the fixation on dollar figures, I don't know that I agree with the entire premise.

 

There are plenty of, maybe even most, high dollar free agents that I have little interest in, while there are quite a few cheaper upside free agents I'd prefer. Or even better yet, youthful trade targets who are inexpensive.

 

If for instance the Twins traded for Blake Snell, traded Rosario for Alcantara and rounded out the rotation with Rich Hill, while signing the likely inexpensive Kole Calhoun to replace Rosario, I'd be thrilled and the payroll would probably be what, 110M? Easily bottom 20 of the league.

 

But I only like the destination, I don't really care about the route they took to get there. But what I don't like is that this team ALWAYS takes the same route. Try something different for once, go outside of your comfort zone some time. Just because they can build a team inexpensively doesn't mean they HAVE to.

[bird]

 

I brought up Cain as an example of spending in free agency, not to talk about outfielders.  

 

And, another route to... what, exactly? Another route to a quick ALDS exit? 

 

I think that's part of why the two sides talk past each other. Many of us feel this team should be striving for a deep postseason run, however that is defined. Maybe, for others, process and effort and feel good statements are what matters. I really, really do not know. 

 

Can we at least agree that the team is a "true contender" now? That had been the discussion the past couple years, if I recall correctly. That this team will go in when they are a true contender.

 

 

I'm certain we'll continue to talk past each other if one's position is the ONLY way to set the club up for a deep postseason run is by winning the bid for the top FA's.  If they don't land one, is it automatic that they're doomed to a quick exit? If that is one's point of view, then there's no sense in talking, right? This isn't a directed comment. I agree with a premise that there's logic to making that 5/80 investment at times. When guys like me search for explanations for certain decisions, it's not about searching for clues as to the effort, or finding solace in feel good statements. But yes, we DO examine processes for the truth we find in them, not to uncover ways to make excuses for an outcome about which we're all disappointed, of which there are many. 

 

There isn't much at all in the way of dispute that the team is a contender. We're all "striving" for the same outcome. It is probably insulting to Falvey that anyone he respects would think otherwise. Frankly, most disagreements stem from how differently people view the striving process. Lots of people object to the process of the FO stopping its bidding when the number blows past its clearing price, for example.

[Battle ur tail off]

I'm also fine with however they want to get a contending rotation for the upcoming season. If they would rather use some of their prospect capital or some of their offense to upgrade the pitching staff, I am all for it. 

 

I would get to it though before all of these FA are signed. Once they are, other teams will also pivot to the trade route, once they do, it will cost more to pry players from teams with the right assets. 

[bird]

 

I never said pretty much any of what you are attributing to me here.....I've repeatedly said we'll see what happens.

 

The reason fans look at payroll is because signing free agents is one way to get better, and they only cost money, not prospects. I'm assuming that was a rhetorical question, though.

 

 

Some commenters talk incessantly about money, including you, my friend. It can be a bit suffocating at times, especially when we express ambivalence about it in one situation and drone on and on about it in others, such as the off-season FA thing. And going back into irrelevant history and clinging to false narratives on the subject of spending is a particular forte of yours, is it not?

 

Can't we have good discussions about whether the rumors are valid, and the offer a good decision, instead of constantly lamenting about spending? Please?

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, I saw a blurb earlier where Falvey was asked about trades and he said they were mostly concerned with free agents right now. Which was AFTER there were reports that Wheeler, Bumgarner and Ryu weren't interested in coming here. The legitimacy of those reports are hardly relevant, if there are indications that the targets you want may not reciprocate the feelings, start working the trade angle to get a guy who has to come here. Don't focus all of your energy on the guys giving you the cold shoulder.

[bird]

 

While I agree about the fixation on dollar figures, I don't know that I agree with the entire premise.

 

There are plenty of, maybe even most, high dollar free agents that I have little interest in, while there are quite a few cheaper upside free agents I'd prefer. Or even better yet, youthful trade targets who are inexpensive.

 

If for instance the Twins traded for Blake Snell, traded Rosario for Alcantara and rounded out the rotation with Rich Hill, while signing the likely inexpensive Kole Calhoun to replace Rosario, I'd be thrilled and the payroll would probably be what, 110M? Easily bottom 20 of the league.

 

But I only like the destination, I don't really care about the route they took to get there. But what I don't like is that this team ALWAYS takes the same route. Try something different for once, go outside of your comfort zone some time. Just because they can build a team inexpensively doesn't mean they HAVE to.

 

 

Yeah, solid point, but let's remember that this is this organization's first off-season as a contender. This is not the old organization. 

[Vanimal46]

Yeah, solid point, but let's remember that this is this organization's first off-season as a contender. This is not the old organization.

Are you happy with how things are going so far? Think they could do a little bit better?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Some commenters talk incessantly about money, including you, my friend. It can be a bit suffocating at times, especially when we express ambivalence about it in one situation and drone on and on about it in others, such as the off-season FA thing. And going back into irrelevant history and clinging to false narratives on the subject of spending is a particular forte of yours, is it not?

 

Can't we have good discussions about whether the rumors are valid, and the offer a good decision, instead of constantly lamenting about spending? Please?

 

which false narrative, exactly? 

 

And, isn't this a thread about free agency?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Are you happy with how things are going so far? Think they could do a little bit better?

 

I am. I'm operating under the view that we are in the middle of the off-season, and that the off-season can only be evaluated at the end of the process. The rush to criticize the front office isn't based on facts.

[prouster]

The off-season isn't exactly a timed race. Guys do come off the board, but it doesn't really make sense to talk about "pace" when there is a ton of time left, lots of unsigned players, and various potential trade targets.

 

I will criticize the front office if they cut payroll. But it's unreasonable to act like the off-season is over or even close to over.

Exactly. I remember a lot of carping last year about the lack of activity, the injustice of cutting spending, etc. Then they signed Cruz in January and Marwin shortly after the start of spring training. Then the consensus seemed to be that it was a pretty good off season.

 

The market is moving faster on big names this year, but there is still a lot of time to fill holes and, yes, spend money. The season doesn’t start tomorrow.

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, solid point, but let's remember that this is this organization's first off-season as a contender. This is not the old organization. 

 

No I agree, I have been willing to give the new guys a long leash, particularly after putting together a really good club last year. I've been a fan so far. I also kind of get the feeling that despite a really intriguing free agent class, things have absolutely not been breaking the Twins way either and we didn't see this coming.

 

But I kind of think the front office should have been able to get better intel then us so they could see it coming. For instance, IF free agents were turned off by geography, I think that's something the front office needs to figure out earlier so as not to waste time on those guys. I also think they failed to read the market and were surprised by the insane spending by the big money teams. I mean all of us were, but the teams on the I-95 corridor and the teams in Southern California weren't. None of them flinched at the other teams' offers, I suspect they knew this was coming, and I think our team should have been prepared.

[prouster]

No matter what level of competition it is, if you don't win the championship you have failed. That doesn't mean it's "pathetic" (your word, not mine), but it is still a failure. Nobody should settle mediocrity.

The Astros, uh, won 107 games, won the Pennant, and took Washington to seven games. I guess that’s mediocrity??

[nicksaviking]

 

Are you happy with how things are going so far? Think they could do a little bit better?

 

I'm actually going to be a bit happy if they miss out on the next tier of pitching, because I think it will force their hand to make some trades instead, which I'd much prefer.

 

But if that comes to fruition, I wouldn't buy into them saying that it was all part of their master plan, all along!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm certain we'll continue to talk past each other if one's position is the ONLY way to set the club up for a deep postseason run is by winning the bid for the top FA's.  If they don't land one, is it automatic that they're doomed to a quick exit? If that is one's point of view, then there's no sense in talking, right? This isn't a directed comment. I agree with a premise that there's logic to making that 5/80 investment at times. When guys like me search for explanations for certain decisions, it's not about searching for clues as to the effort, or finding solace in feel good statements. But yes, we DO examine processes for the truth we find in them, not to uncover ways to make excuses for an outcome about which we're all disappointed, of which there are many. 

 

There isn't much at all in the way of dispute that the team is a contender. We're all "striving" for the same outcome. It is probably insulting to Falvey that anyone he respects would think otherwise. Frankly, most disagreements stem from how differently people view the striving process. Lots of people object to the process of the FO stopping its bidding when the number blows past its clearing price, for example.

Would you offer Ryu a 5/80 contract, then?

[Vanimal46]

I am. I'm operating under the view that we are in the middle of the off-season, and that the off-season can only be evaluated at the end of the process. The rush to criticize the front office isn't based on facts.

Here are more facts:

 

The only pitchers that could be considered “impact” pitchers left are Ryu and Bumgarner. They only cost money.

 

This regime has made 3 “buying” trades. They sold Jaime Garcia within 3 days of acquiring him, botched the Dyson trade, and got 2 months of Sergio Romo. If they actually give up prospect capital to get impact pitching I will he ecstatic.

 

It’s only halfway through the offseason, and one avenue that only requires money to play in it is drying up.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Here are more facts:

The only pitchers that could be considered “impact” pitchers left are Ryu and Bumgarner. They only cost money.

This regime has made 3 “buying” trades. They sold Jaime Garcia within 3 days of acquiring him, botched the Dyson trade, and got 2 months of Sergio Romo. If they actually give up prospect capital to get impact pitching I will he ecstatic.

It’s only halfway through the offseason, and one avenue that only requires money to play in it is drying up.

 

Odorizzi says hi.......

[howeda7]

 

LOL stop with this nonsense. Marlins aren’t getting Rosario and only giving up Alcantara. They’ll need to give up a lot more if they want Rosario

My sarcasm meter must be broken.

[jud6312]

 

The Astros, uh, won 107 games, won the Pennant, and took Washington to seven games. I guess that’s mediocrity??

 

Do you play to win or do you play for second place?

[prouster]

Do you play to win or do you play for second place?

I graduated high school a while ago now. It’s been a long time since I’ve played anything.

[h2oface]

 

Here are more facts:

The only pitchers that could be considered “impact” pitchers left are Ryu and Bumgarner. They only cost money.......

 

Well, Ryu only costs money. Bumgarner will cost a draft pick, too. Still very worth it.....

[h2oface]

 

Do you play to win or do you play for second place?

 

Sure, everyone plays MLB to win. But.......... losing in 7 games in the WS is not playing for second place, and is pretty damn awesome. 

[Crackedfungo]

Everyone needs to relax.  We never had a chance with Wheeler, Straus, or Cole..  It was for the following reasons:  move back to family/area + money met/exceeded, remain with team and continuity of family + money met/exceeded, and maximum idiotic ego boost in being highest/longest paid pitcher ever and dominant team + crazy ass duration terms and AAV for money exceeded.  There was NO WAY the Twins were going to get any of these pitchers.  It is not the FO or JPs fault (and I am no apologist).  We are simply a mid/small market team, in a tough climate, with very little geographic and or specific draw for these FA's (unless one of these players had a wives or extended family up here and were looking at a return to quality of life - for 6 months).  Moreover, I believe our taxes are still too high for living in the sticks with such a tough climate - don't underestimate this (compared to TX or alternatives that don't have some other unique draw).  

 

So, what about Bumgarner and Ryu?  I am going to say that I predict <10% chance that MadBum is even interested at ANY price.  As for Ryu, I would say <25%, since there isn't much that would draw him here (community related, culture, etc).  Thus, only excessive $ or duration would seem to be even a potential draw for either, which is NOT a recipe for success in later years of contracts. 

 

So, we will need to trade for a prospective pitching climber using our excess OF assets (the MILB players, not MLB players unless Cave is a throw in), and we absolutely MUST get Falvey/Wes/Baldelli  to develop 3 of the following pitchers ASAP, so that we go into future years (with Berrios, and Trade Asset) in a position of strength without the need to attract fickle FAs: Dobnak, Romero, Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, Colina, Sands, Vallimont, Enlow and/or Canterino.  I think Thorpe and Smeltzer belong in the BP with Alcala, along with a few of the losers of the battles above.  Out of these 10 varying levels of prospects, you NEED to be able to hit on 3-4.  This is not unheard of, given that several are only 1-2 levels removed from MLB.  

 

No, this is not a well-coordinated plan with our current initial 'window' of players and new-found success.  However, this is a NET RESULT of NOT pursuing in-house development in the last few years of SP's in a real and overt way (wasting time with the Pelfrey's and Perez's of the world).  We continue to try to buy or resurrect mediocre crap and hope for a long-term miracle.  It just doesn't work.  So, we need to DO IT NOW, developing a pitcher for each of the next 3 years and force them into 30 starts (and cycle in alternatives as soon as we are sure that the one focused upon is not the solution). 

 

I am not saying we don't try for a FA, but I am pragmatic enough to know that you can attempt to write big checks with NO TAKERS.  It is what it is....

[NickPuntos562OPS]

 

The off-season isn't exactly a timed race. Guys do come off the board, but it doesn't really make sense to talk about "pace" when there is a ton of time left, lots of unsigned players, and various potential trade targets.

 

I will criticize the front office if they cut payroll. But it's unreasonable to act like the off-season is over or even close to over. 

I won't even criticize if they cut payroll, assuming they still improved the rotation.  I'm afraid this FO is overly concerned with getting excess value, and that makes me nervous about how far they are willing to go not just in free agency, but in the trade market.  The offseason is by no means over, but there is a very good chance that if they miss on Ryu or Bumgarner their best FA options are worse than Gibson.   That puts a lot of pressure on them to make a trade that they may not be willing to make.  If they leave this offseason without obtaining a pitcher on par with Odorizzi this offseason is an abject failure. 

 

The FO is relatively new, but the fanbase is restless and they will turn on the team very quickly if they are perceived as being cheap and either miss the playoffs or get swept out (again) in 2020.  The FO has talked a good game, time to play one.

[Twodogs]

Porcello signed 1 year 10 mill. That seems rather reasonable.