Still waiting...

[bighat]

 

Houston is a great area for people who like to fish or hunt, like Minnesota but with longer seasons, fewer days of wind chill below zero (like basically none) and access to the ocean.  I gotta think that no state income tax doesn't hurt, either.

 

I grew up in Minnesota and now live near Chicago.  The weather here is somewhat better than Minnesota (my mother and I compare it nearly every day...).  Urban amenities are in totally different leagues.  If you want to fly to meet your family or something, check the schedules for O'Hare vs. MSP.

 

I would rather live in Minnesota, personally, but it's pretty easy to imagine no one who grew up south of here would ever think that, at least not at first.

Yeah I grew up in Minneapolis and lived in the city of Chicago as an adult for 10 years. Chicago's a "big league city" and Minneapolis is just a nice little town that happens to have a baseball team. At least that's the perception and it's not going to change.

 

Chicago is much closer to that New York feel, whereas Minneapolis is like Pittsburgh - a fine town in its own right, but if you've never been there you'll really have no clue as to what it has to offer. 

 

I live in Guatemala now. Everyone's heard of Chicago. Nobody's heard of Minneapolis. It's not necessarily fair, but it is what it is.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I totally disagree. Very often a strong initial offer early in the hot stove season lands a player (Gibson is an example this year). The market is a total question at that point, and with the history of the last couple of years, the position becomes that's what I want, the risk of waiting is over. Many beneath the top tier last year declined good multi year offers (albeit no over pays - Grandal) and ended up with one year contracts (Moustakas) or no contract (Keuchel/Kimbrel). 

 

I respect your opinion, but to say the pervious poster's opinion is ludicrous is......... well...... 

 

 

To say *for a fact* that Bumgarner would be a Twin now if they had offered early? Yes, that is absolutely ludicrous. It's pure fiction. 

 

Bumgarner's agent would have called around. He would have gotten a sense for whether the Twins had priced out other clubs. Offering $100 million wouldn't have gotten it done if there are a bunch of teams looking to go north of that on 2nd tier guys. Where there were and are, apparently.

 

It's cheap message board talk to say, oh overpay so and so, overpay this guy, do this, do that. It's not how the real world works. Falvey and Levine actually have to live with their decisions. Fans on here can demand to sign Bumgarner, and then when he tanks can blame the front office for a bad evaluation. Can't lose. But for the actual front office, they can't afford to make $100 million+ mistakes very often.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To say *for a fact* that Bumgarner would be a Twin now if they had offered early? Yes, that is absolutely ludicrous. It's pure fiction. 

 

Bumgarner's agent would have called around. He would have gotten a sense for whether the Twins had priced out other clubs. Offering $100 million wouldn't have gotten it done if there are a bunch of teams looking to go north of that on 2nd tier guys. Where there were and are, apparently.

 

It's cheap message board talk to say, oh overpay so and so, overpay this guy, do this, do that. It's not how the real world works. Falvey and Levine actually have to live with their decisions. Fans on here can demand to sign Bumgarner, and then when he tanks can blame the front office for a bad evaluation. Can't lose. But for the actual front office, they can't afford to make $100 million+ mistakes very often.

 

We'll never know, since their largest signing is, who, Nolasco? In the history of the team?

 

It's the pattern, not the one off cases. 

[Vanimal46]

Can they try making at least a $50 million mistake? Perhaps they could sign a player so Erv Santana doesn’t hold the title of largest FA contract given for yet another year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Can they try making at least a $50 million mistake? Perhaps they could sign a player so Erv Santana doesn’t hold the title of largest FA contract given for yet another year.

 

I can never recall if it is Erv or Ricky....about the same, I think....

[big dog]

 

Well, your previous post suggested $100 mil guys were getting $200 mil. That's not happening; I don't think that's ever happened. And $100 mil guys getting $120 mil isn't a big deal -- that's how competitive markets work. (And I'd be mildly surprised if Bumgarner topped $120 mil, at least by much.)

 

 

Again, there are no younger guys to sign as FA. You have to trade for them first. How much are you willing to give up in trade? And who exactly are you targeting here? Is Jon Gray "young" enough? Although he's close enough to FA that I suspect he's not signing a reasonable extension (Cole didn't). Zac Gallen would have been nice, but he's gone already -- the Marlins leftover pitchers may be your only options for this strategy right now. Are any of them worth it?

 

I saw someone in a news article speculate about Bumgarner getting a number a lot closer to $200 than to $100.  Doesn't mean it will happen, but if you are betting on $120 I'll take the over (pending # of years).

 

Younger guys- how about signing two or three guys like Gausman and hoping to get one fixed?  How about trading for one of the Marlins guys as well?  Again, I certainly didn't expect this to be easy.  Getting Bumgarner isn't going to be easy, either, and if we got him it would not necessarily work out.

 

My problem with this whole narrative is too many people are basically saying "pay whatever it takes for a tier 2 person, just do it, that's what's required".  That's one option, and it is the most expensive but is by no means any kind of guarantee.  The more expensive it gets, the more additional risk it carries.  I'm just saying, we might have to look at other strategies, and one of them might turn out better.  The more the overpay, the more I turn to other strategies.  Prices matter, at least when you have constraints.

 

 

[big dog]

 

I can never recall if it is Erv or Ricky....about the same, I think....

Santana's annual salary was $13.5 million, Nolasco got $12 million, both for four years. 

 

[howeda7]

 

To say *for a fact* that Bumgarner would be a Twin now if they had offered early? Yes, that is absolutely ludicrous. It's pure fiction. 

 

Bumgarner's agent would have called around. He would have gotten a sense for whether the Twins had priced out other clubs. Offering $100 million wouldn't have gotten it done if there are a bunch of teams looking to go north of that on 2nd tier guys. Where there were and are, apparently.

 

It's cheap message board talk to say, oh overpay so and so, overpay this guy, do this, do that. It's not how the real world works. Falvey and Levine actually have to live with their decisions. Fans on here can demand to sign Bumgarner, and then when he tanks can blame the front office for a bad evaluation. Can't lose. But for the actual front office, they can't afford to make $100 million+ mistakes very often.

When you're in a position to go for it, you have to be aggressive and yes, overpay. Do Wild fans lament signing Parise and Suter because it didn't work out? I don't think most of them do. They pushed their chips on the table and went for it. It didn't work out. But it was still worth doing. Same for the Vikings with Cousins.

 

No one is asking for the Twins to match the Yankees or the Dodgers or be a major FA player every year. But the Twins never have in the modern era. Not with prospects and not with $$. And if they won't go for it now, they never will.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I saw someone in a news article speculate about Bumgarner getting a number a lot closer to $200 than to $100.  

That's crazy talk, Bumgarner's not getting over $150 mil. His MLBTR estimate was 4/72, so $100-120 mil is already a pretty hot market for him.

 

I guess I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up with $125 mil or something, but who's left to bid him up beyond that? The Twins, Dodgers, and Braves have actually spent relatively conservatively lately. The Angels might be desperate, but they also just had to sell their top draft pick before signing Rendon, I think they know they have limits.

[howeda7]

At this point I'd settle for Kuechel, trading Rosario and prospects for Alcantara and having a deep rotation without an ace and add Betances or another RP. Sign Jerrod Dyson to play LF until Kiriloff is ready and then slide him to CF when Buxton gets hurt. Gonzalez can play 3B unless we somehow land Donaldson.

[bird]

 

Sure, Minnesota is cold. Especially today, so good thing no games are scheduled.

Reminder that Lorenzo Cain signed a 5/80 contract in Milwaukee and they went to Game 7 of the NLCS.

We are still waiting for the front office to do something even remotely close to that.

 

Why? Both Polanco and Kepler out-produced Lorenzo Cain. So did Byron Buxton. And Sano. Garver. Cruz.

 

They may miss out on MadBum, Ryu, and (hopefully in the eyes of many) Keuchel. If they do, they'll find another route, IMO.

 

Thad would probably define last year's production from both Odorizzi and Pineda as "impact" production. This is not apologist thought, but I'm wondering if fans aren't feeling dissonance based on having a loftier definition of the word "impact", conflating impact pitching with big name pitching, and with having a different idea about the timetable for solving the few roster issues left to solve.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why? Both Polanco and Kepler out-produced Lorenzo Cain. So did Byron Buxton. And Sano. Garver. Cruz.

 

They may miss out on MadBum, Ryu, and (hopefully in the eyes of many) Keuchel. If they do, they'll find another route, IMO.

 

Thad would probably define last year's production from both Odorizzi and Pineda as "impact" production. This is not apologist thought, but I'm wondering if fans aren't feeling dissonance based on having a loftier definition of the word "impact", conflating impact pitching with big name pitching, and with having a different idea about the timetable for solving the few roster issues left to solve.

 

I think fans expect a team that is contending not to cut payroll by tens of millions.......which they are on pace to do right now. They have 30-40 million, and there are good FA pitchers out there.....we'll see what happens with the two or three remaining most likely to be impact starting pitchers.

 

mike sixel
12:30 Are the Twins going to sit out major FA again this year, despite sitting on 30-40MM in payroll space? Who will acquire the better pitcher the rest of this off season, the Twins or White Sox?

 

 

Dan Szymborski
12:31 I suspect so. I was disappointed they didn't go after Corbin last year.
Sure, they had a fine year, but they *cut* payroll from Mauer's last year

[nicksaviking]

 

Santana's annual salary was $13.5 million, Nolasco got $12 million, both for four years. 

 

Please don't ask us to do math on this board.

 

But seriously, Santana, Nolasco and Lynn were the 2nd tier pitchers when they were free agents. I was happy the team took the initiative to sign them, but I didn't actually care for any of those pitchers when they got them. We're dealing with some unexpected inflation at the moment, but Bumgarner, Ryu and Keuchel are still 2019's version of Santana, Nolasco and Lynn, and I'm still not interested. 

 

I want them to go big (which didn't happen) or get creative another way. I don'l like these low ceiling consolation prizes.

[bird]

 

The goal should not be to contend for the playoffs and win a weak division. The goal should be to hold the trophy in October - anything less is a moral victory and nothing more.

 

 

By this definition, were the Houston Astros a pathetic abject failure in 2019?

[bird]

 

It's becoming pretty clear that the front office is leaking stuff like this to local reporters about Bumgarner and Ryu so they have an excuse when they don't sign them.  And in response both player's camps have leaked to national reporters that they would come to Minnesota if the money is right. I'm guessing neither guy has us at the top of their list, but either would come here if the money is right.

 

In a few days we'll hear about how they loved the organization but they just wanted to stay on the West Coast, or go to a bigger city, or be closer to home, etc. And then they'll try to pretend that is the reason we didn't sign them and not the fact that our offer was for 20% less than the winning one.

 

 

You're making stuff up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why? Both Polanco and Kepler out-produced Lorenzo Cain. So did Byron Buxton. And Sano. Garver. Cruz.

Not in 2018, when the Brewers went to game 7 of the NLCS. 6.9 bWAR.

 

(Not that the Twins needed/need Cain specifically, but it would be nice to see them land a contributor like that, even if it meant the risk of an $80+ mil contract, or even sparing a few prospects.)

[bird]

 

It’s pathetic the Twins haven’t done anything to this point. Unless José Berríos all of a sudden turns into a top ace type pitcher we still need a better #1 than him. Our “championship” window is wide open and predictablely Flavine is just sitting around NOT improving the team. Sorry Graterol, Balazovic, or Duran are not going to be an ace within their first few years in the Bigs. So...we actually need to sign or trade for a starter who’s BETTER than Berríos (who is really a #2/3 starter) if we truly want to contend.

 

 

Falvey has a team of ten front office people at the winter meetings right now. I hardly think they're just sitting around. That's insulting.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

To say *for a fact* that Bumgarner would be a Twin now if they had offered early? Yes, that is absolutely ludicrous. It's pure fiction. 

 

Bumgarner's agent would have called around. He would have gotten a sense for whether the Twins had priced out other clubs. Offering $100 million wouldn't have gotten it done if there are a bunch of teams looking to go north of that on 2nd tier guys. Where there were and are, apparently.

 

It's cheap message board talk to say, oh overpay so and so, overpay this guy, do this, do that. It's not how the real world works. Falvey and Levine actually have to live with their decisions. Fans on here can demand to sign Bumgarner, and then when he tanks can blame the front office for a bad evaluation. Can't lose. But for the actual front office, they can't afford to make $100 million+ mistakes very often.

"He'd be a Twin by now" is perfectly acceptable discussion board talk, and certainly invites disagreement.

 

Consistently calling other posters' comments and opinions "absolutely ludicrous" and other such things is where the comment policy starts to enter the picture. 

[howeda7]

 

I think fans expect a team that is contending not to cut payroll by tens of millions.......which they are on pace to do right now. They have 30-40 million, and there are good FA pitchers out there.....we'll see what happens with the two or three remaining most likely to be impact starting pitchers.

 

mike sixel
12:30 Are the Twins going to sit out major FA again this year, despite sitting on 30-40MM in payroll space? Who will acquire the better pitcher the rest of this off season, the Twins or White Sox?

 

 

Dan Szymborski
12:31 I suspect so. I was disappointed they didn't go after Corbin last year.
Sure, they had a fine year, but they *cut* payroll from Mauer's last year

It's possible all they do is add a reliever and maybe a cheap 1B/3B option and go into 2020 with a $110 million payroll.  $20 million less than 2018. Pathetic and inexcusable if it happens.

[amjgt]

Random thought.... To counteract some of the negativity on the cold in MN as it relates to free agents, It would be really interesting to put a pin in a map of where all of the Twins players on the 40-man are currently. I'm guessing a pretty low percentage are in MN.

 

Point being, if you don't want to spend winters in MN, then don't. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Random thought.... To counteract some of the negativity on the cold in MN as it relates to free agents, It would be really interesting to put pin in a map of where all of the Twins players on the 40-man are currently.

Right on! If I can track where my UPS package or pizza delivery is, I should be able to follow the movements of La Tortuga too.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Why? Both Polanco and Kepler out-produced Lorenzo Cain. So did Byron Buxton. And Sano. Garver. Cruz.

 

They may miss out on MadBum, Ryu, and (hopefully in the eyes of many) Keuchel. If they do, they'll find another route, IMO.

 

I brought up Cain as an example of spending in free agency, not to talk about outfielders.  

 

And, another route to... what, exactly? Another route to a quick ALDS exit? 

 

I think that's part of why the two sides talk past each other. Many of us feel this team should be striving for a deep postseason run, however that is defined. Maybe, for others, process and effort and feel good statements are what matters. I really, really do not know. 

 

Can we at least agree that the team is a "true contender" now? That had been the discussion the past couple years, if I recall correctly. That this team will go in when they are a true contender.

[amjgt]

It would also be pretty interesting to know what percentage of players that played at least 5 years for a team, after they retire, end up living within 100 miles of that city.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think fans expect a team that is contending not to cut payroll by tens of millions.......which they are on pace to do right now. They have 30-40 million, and there are good FA pitchers out there.....we'll see what happens with the two or three remaining most likely to be impact starting pitchers.

 

The off-season isn't exactly a timed race. Guys do come off the board, but it doesn't really make sense to talk about "pace" when there is a ton of time left, lots of unsigned players, and various potential trade targets.

 

I will criticize the front office if they cut payroll. But it's unreasonable to act like the off-season is over or even close to over. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Random thought.... To counteract some of the negativity on the cold in MN as it relates to free agents, It would be really interesting to put a pin in a map of where all of the Twins players on the 40-man are currently. I'm guessing a pretty low percentage are in MN.

 

Point being, if you don't want to spend winters in MN, then don't. 

 

I've been to all ten opening day's since Target Field opened, and have been snowed upon twice. Obviously the weather hands out some unexpectedly nice days, but baseball in Minnesota more often than not isn't played in pleasant weather until about mid May. At least not as far as what much of the country considers pleasant.

[amjgt]

 

I've been to all ten opening day's since Target Field opened, and have been snowed upon twice. Obviously the weather hands out some unexpectedly nice days, but baseball in Minnesota more often than not isn't played in pleasant weather until about mid May. 

 

Totally agree. April games are 50/50 at best for good weather, but it's not like if you played for the Angles you wouldn't have any chance of running into crappy April/May weather on the road.

 

I get it. It's a negative, but I've always though more has been made of it that what it should be.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The off-season isn't exactly a timed race. Guys do come off the board, but it doesn't really make sense to talk about "pace" when there is a ton of time left, lots of unsigned players, and various potential trade targets.

 

I will criticize the front office if they cut payroll. But it's unreasonable to act like the off-season is over or even close to over. 

 

which is why I said we'll see what happens.......and I've said that over and over in my posts......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It would also be pretty interesting to know what percentage of players that played at least 5 years for a team, after they retire, end up living within 100 miles of that city.

For sure, you have to keep the tracking devices on after retirement. Really the only way to process long-term changes in the migratory habits of "tortugas".

[AZTwin]

At this point I'd settle for Kuechel, trading Rosario and prospects for Alcantara and having a deep rotation without an ace and add Betances or another RP. Sign Jerrod Dyson to play LF until Kiriloff is ready and then slide him to CF when Buxton gets hurt. Gonzalez can play 3B unless we somehow land Donaldson.

LOL stop with this nonsense. Marlins aren’t getting Rosario and only giving up Alcantara. They’ll need to give up a lot more if they want Rosario

[Mike Sixel]

 

LOL stop with this nonsense. Marlins aren’t getting Rosario and only giving up Alcantara. They’ll need to give up a lot more if they want Rosario

 

Did you see what Pham went for? And he's been a better hitter than Rosario for a few years now.