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The Rays got their man at the deadline. Arggggh!


jokin
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I've mentioned former Miami Marlin and now Tampa Bay Ray RP Nick Anderson as an obvious Twins' deadline target for the pen previously. They obviously should have known enough about his background, considering that he's originally from Brainerd, Mn and pitched well within the Twins' organization for the previous 4 years prior to 2019. Clearly, the homework on Anderson was already complete- besides his ties to the Twins, the FO obviously perused the entire Marlins' staff fairly thoroughly, before ultimately deciding on making a deal for Sergio Romo. The only question left on acquiring Anderson was the asking price.

 

Well, the deadline came and went, the Twins picked up Sam Dyson, and they obviously didn't do ANY homework on Dyson's physical situation.

 

The story gets worse for what the Twins missed. Is Anderson a soft tosser? That would be NO. He's averages 96.3 on his FB and also possesses a 83.5 mph devastating slider. Anderson pitched very well, but not lights out for Miami. The move to Tampa Bay thus far has been positively transformative for the 6'5" righty. How other-wordly, you might ask?

 

Since August 1, his numbers are the best for RPs in all of baseball. Better than Rogers, Chapman, Yates, Hendiriks, you name it.

In 8 August appearances:

 

W-L 2-0

Games 8

IP 8

ERA 0.00

FIP -1.28 (that's right, NEGATIVE)

K/9 20.25

K% 69.2%

BB/9 0.00

AVG .115

SLG .154

OPS .269

wOBA .114

IFFB% 33.3%

TBF 27

Hits 3

 

Undoubtedly, Anderson probably wasn't ready to be the closer or the set-up man on this team, he is not regularly called upon in high leverage situations, but consider this:

 

For the season, in low and medium leverage situations Anderson's K% is a combined 43% and K/9 is 15.75.

And even in high leverage situations, his K% is 35% and K/9 is 13.1.

 

> NOBODY on the Twins staff comes close to these numbers, even Rogers and Duffey.<

 

On the season, only 1 RP (Josh Hader) has a higher K% and K/9 than Anderson's 41% and 15.2. And he's accomplished this with very good control- his K-BB% of 33.5% ranks third behind only Hader and Yates.

 

Seems like he would have been the perfect fit for some of the 5th, 6th and 7th inning duty for the Twins.

 

How many games might he already have made the difference for the Twins in some of their recent August pitching disasters, and before that? Looks like he'll always be "The one that slipped through the cracks...."

Edited by jokin
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It seems like the Front Office was more concern with keeping the likes of Oliver Drake and Matt Belisle on their pitching staff other then giving Nick Anderson a shot. He was having a nice season in Rochester but did not deserve a call up last year? With all the scouting talent in this Organization, how could they not no this guy was ready for a shot.

Edited by Highabove
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it’s 8 games, lets see how he’s doing consistency wise in mid September

 

How about the previous 45 games?

 

As I pointed out in the article, I examined his entire body of work.

By the measure of his entire season, Anderson would still be a major force in the Twins pen.

 

Yes, he did have a few bad outings, especially in May (partly attributed to an IFH% spike to 28.2%). But as I noted, his overall season K and control numbers stand out in a way that make him not only far superior to anyone in the Twins' pen, but also near or at the top in terms of K/control numbers among all relievers in baseball this season, not just with the Rays in August.

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If anyone wonders why I'm insistent about giving playing time to as many players as possible. 

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. 

 

If anyone wonders why I don't have complete faith in the scouts, the front offices or Keith Law to be right all the time. 

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. 

 

Our scouts and our front office (Who I believe are talented) gave away a guy who is striking out over 2 batters an inning this year. Nick would have been a huge boost to this bullpen this year and we let him go. 

 

I don't blame anyone, mistakes like this happen all the time and they happen because the margins are thin and the job is hard. But... they let him go for nothing... It should tell everyone that complete trust in the process is misplaced. 

 

The only way to minimize these types of mistakes is too hand them the ball and let them show you. 

 

Putting Belisle on the roster instead of Anderson during a lost season was a critical mistake, it was someone making the determination that Belisle was better than Anderson and being wrong by 100 miles. 

 

The guy is striking out 2 batters an inning. I don't care if his ERA is 10.88 in 2020... He is striking out 2 batters an inning in 2019. He would be a huge addition to this bullpen right now. 

 

I've moved on... I think the front office has done a great job and I'll bet they will make mistakes like this again in the future.

 

Right now... I'll just settle for them realizing that they made a mistake here and will make mistakes like this in the future and this will hopefully stall any futures thoughts of "we know better". If they do that... they will make less mistakes like this in the future. You need scouts, you need the data but you need to recognize the imperfections of scouts and data and let the players prove everyone wrong if they are able. 

 

Letting Anderson walk was a bigger mistake than trading Pressly. 

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https://www.mlb.com/news/this-was-the-best-reliever-traded-at-the-deadline

 

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There were 19 notable relievers traded in the days leading up to the July 31 Trade Deadline, with past and present All-Stars like Mark Melancon, Sergio Romo and Shane Greene among them. For the most part, it hasn't gone well. We took 18 of them and looked at their August stats, and so far, they've combined for a 5.35 ERA, an enormous jump from the 3.86 ERA they had through the end of July. Teams looking for relief generally haven't found it.

You'll notice we only included 18 of the 19, and the name we left out is one you likely aren't familiar with. You absolutely did not know Nick Anderson when the Twins signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2015, and you probably did not notice when they dealt him to Miami last November for a Minor League third baseman to avoid a 40-man roster crunch. (It's OK: Neither did we. Anderson didn't even rate a mention in the headline. The Minor League third baseman, Brian Schales, is hitting .189/.301/.378 in the

Edited by ashbury
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If anyone wonders why I'm insistent about giving playing time to as many players as possible.

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits.

 

If anyone wonders why I don't have complete faith in the scouts, the front offices or Keith Law to be right all the time.

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits.

 

Our scouts and our front office (Who I believe are talented) gave away a guy who is striking out over 2 batters an inning this year. Nick would have been a huge boost to this bullpen this year and we let him go.

 

I don't blame anyone, mistakes like this happen all the time and they happen because the margins are thin and the job is hard. But... they let him go for nothing... It should tell everyone that complete trust in the process is misplaced.

 

The only way to minimize these types of mistakes is too hand them the ball and let them show you.

 

Putting Belisle on the roster instead of Anderson during a lost season was a critical mistake, it was someone making the determination that Belisle was better than Anderson and being wrong by 100 miles.

 

The guy is striking out 2 batters an inning. I don't care if his ERA is 10.88 in 2020... He is striking out 2 batters an inning in 2019. He would be a huge addition to this bullpen right now.

 

I've moved on... I think the front office has done a great job and I'll bet they will make mistakes like this again in the future.

 

Right now... I'll just settle for them realizing that they made a mistake here and will make mistakes like this in the future and this will hopefully stall any futures thoughts of "we know better". If they do that... they will make less mistakes like this in the future. You need scouts, you need the data but you need to recognize the imperfections of scouts and data and let the players prove everyone wrong if they are able.

 

Letting Anderson walk was a bigger mistake than trading Pressly.

They've been pretty good discarding players without much of a sting afterwards. Nick Anderson is just one example out of dozens of players they let go. The others haven't made an impact at all at the MLB level. So with that being said, I agree. I think they're doing a good job trimming the fat each year.

 

Other than Nick Anderson this year, and Derek Rodriguez last year, are there other examples of players the Twins discarded and proved them wrong? Do we still wish JT Chargois is still in the organization? How about Nick Burdi? Or John Curtiss?

 

I still put the Pressly trade as #1, with a bullet, Falvine's biggest mistake.

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Given their track record I don't really trust this FO with pen management.  It seems the pen is the one area they typically care the least about especially when it comes to protecting guys.  At any rate they did have to make some tough decisions or risk losing guys for nothing.  I guess they Figured with Romero and Meija likely pen arms and Moya and Magill who had held their own the year before likely to improve.  They liked DeJong and Vasquez better than Anderson as they were younger.  They also probably didn't see Hildenberger falling off a cliff either and they had Thorpe, Gonsalves and Littel waiting in the wings to help as well so I can see how they thought Anderson was likely expendable.  

 

I will give them a little bit of credit though as they actually worked out a trade with the Marlins so they knew Anderson had value they just thought the guys they were keeping likely had more value but it turns out things went pretty sideways as a lot of the guys they kept actually regressed significantly.  That's teh way it goes sometimes.  You make logical decisions or calculated risks and they backfire.

Edited by Dman
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It seems like the Front Office was more concern with keeping the likes of Oliver Drake and Matt Belisle on their pitching staff other then giving Nick Anderson a shot. He was having a nice season in Rochester but did not deserve a call up last year? With all the scouting talent in this Organization, how could they not no this guy was ready for a shot.

It’s funny you mention Drake, he’s currently on the Rays bullpen alongside Anderson. He pitched very well for the Twins, which made it baffling why they cut him IMO.

 

The Belisle situation was a total joke, and Anderson was a legitimate option to be called up... thankfully we haven’t seen any moves like that one this season, I guess outside of a few days of Torres being on the roster.

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Letting Anderson walk was a bigger mistake than trading Pressly. 

 

Uh, yeah. I definitely thought about proposing that possibility, but decided not to go there.

 

The only thing I could think of for why they let Anderson go was because he was an inherited guy, who couldn't possibly fit into their plans, because... maybe.... he "only"played for Mayville State in college and 3 Indy League teams before being signed by the previous Twins regime... and, despite his outstanding MiLB results, they KNEW better.

 

It's gonna stick in my craw for a long time, much like the head-scratching trade of Pressley a year ago.

 

The only way it's gonna hurt even more is if/when either Anderson or Pressly shut down the Twins in a Wild Card, ALDS, ALCS game come October.

 

Making 2 mistakes wasn't the end of the world in terms of their chances this fall, but critical mistakes like this require proper atonement- and that hasn't happened yet. The fact that the Marlins had declared open season on their roster and that the Twins obviously had a second chance at Anderson and whiffed again is cause for concern.

 

Without addressing this "blind spot" in their thinking,

1) replacing Pressley with similar quality in the offseason, and

2) when they've had opportunity to do mend an unforced error with a willing trade partner and failed to execute,

 

their otherwise decent master-recipe for success for 2019 still comes off as half-baked.

 

 

Edited by jokin
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...they had Thorpe, Gonsalves and Littel waiting in the wings to help as well so I can see how they thought Anderson was likely expendable.  

 

I will give them a little bit of credit though as they actually worked out a trade with the Marlins so they knew Anderson had value they just thought the guys they were keeping likely had more value but it turns out things went pretty sideways as a lot of the guys they kept actually regressed significantly.  That's teh way it goes sometimes.  You make logical decisions or calculated risks and they backfire.

 

The Twins had a chance to atone for their mistake, it wasn't logical to NOT make a deal with the Marlins to acquire Anderson, Romo and/or one or two of the Marlins young starters. As we know now, they were ALL on the trading block- and the Twins clearly were kicking the tires. (We knew it at the time, as well, the Marlins are chock-full with young pitchers and high-ceiling prospects on the way and NEEDED to deal the excess currently on their roster).

 

It looks like pulling the trigger on a more blockbuster deal- with the potential "backfire"- was just a bridge too far for FalVine to risk. By contrast, look at what Falvey's old team did on deadline day- the Indians had the guts and wherewithal to trade a young, potential Ace- to address a bigger essential need via a complicated, three-way trade. And in the process, we now have a legitimate race for the AL Central.

Edited by jokin
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The problem with relievers is that they can do really well in SSS... I do think the FO missed this one, simply by letting him go... or perhaps that's what he needed to make an adjustment, who knows.

 

Personally, I tend to agree with Vanimal that trading Pressley was the worst mistake. I said it then that trading him was punting on 2019... and here we are needing him. 

 

That said, speaking of the Marlins, not acquiring Anderson is hardly the biggest mistake from that roster. That mistake goes not beating Arizona's offer for Zac Gallen. I didn't think the Marlins would be trading him, but they did... and not for much. That offer should have been beaten. 

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That said, speaking of the Marlins, not acquiring Anderson is hardly the biggest mistake from that roster. That mistake goes not beating Arizona's offer for Zac Gallen. I didn't think the Marlins would be trading him, but they did... and not for much. That offer should have been beaten. 

You may not think much of Jazz Chisholm, but he's the #30 prospect at Fangraphs right now with a 55 FV. Also #57 at MLB.com, and was #59 at BA / #69 at BP preseason.

 

For the Twins to beat that offer may have taken Lewis or Kirilloff.

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You may not think much of Jazz Chisholm, but he's the #30 prospect at Fangraphs right now with a 55 FV. Also #57 at MLB.com, and was #59 at BA / #69 at BP preseason.

 

For the Twins to beat that offer may have taken Lewis or Kirilloff.

So, Kirilloff for five years of a number three? If those numbers are correct, I do that every time given this roster. Every time. They have one starter under contract for next year. One.

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We can’t possibly know if the Twins had or didn’t have interest in trading for Anderson or Gallen, or what offers were made. Equivalent values based on whatever online tools available to us, are estimates. They have no insight to the value that one FO places on a player and another team’s prospect.

 

It’s fair to say this team would have been better had Falvey kept Pressly. It’s not fair to say they should have gotten specific deals done. I wanted them to do more at the deadline, it didn’t happen. It takes two to tango.

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I think we can disabuse the notion that Falvey is some sort of pitching whisperer. The Twins pitching hasn’t been good since they got here and have made decisions that have actually made things worse

I would at least wait until their internally developed pitching prospects make it to the majors, including their drafted pitchers (Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Matt Canterino), and acquired arms (Zack Littell, Jhoan Duran, Luis Rijo).

 

It would help if the past FO would have been able to develop a few more options - imagine how much Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay would be helping if just one of them developed into the type of pitcher we were hoping for. 

 

So far the pitching development has been disappointing, at least in the majors, but we've been going through mostly Terry Ryan-acquired arms. I suspect things will improve when the FO's pet projects reach the majors.

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They've been pretty good discarding players without much of a sting afterwards. Nick Anderson is just one example out of dozens of players they let go. The others haven't made an impact at all at the MLB level. So with that being said, I agree. I think they're doing a good job trimming the fat each year.

Other than Nick Anderson this year, and Derek Rodriguez last year, are there other examples of players the Twins discarded and proved them wrong? Do we still wish JT Chargois is still in the organization? How about Nick Burdi? Or John Curtiss?

I still put the Pressly trade as #1, with a bullet, Falvine's biggest mistake.

A lot of great posts, but really like this one.

 

At some point, we need to let the Pressly move go. The FO thought they were being smart, but they blew that one. Every team makes mistakes. It's time to move on. NONE of the names mentioned above have done anything really. But agreed Anderson was a big mistake vs Belisle. Not pointing fingers, but was that the FO, or Molitor, or a combined mistake?

 

I find it strangely confusing because the FO has been so aggressive and forward thinking thjs season in regard to Littell, Poppen, Smeltzer and others. It leads me to believe that we not only missed an opportunity, but maybe the communication last season just wasn't as good.

 

Trades, development and progressive promotion/opportunity actually has the pen looking much better than it was a month or so ago, with additional optimism going forward.

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So, Kirilloff for five years of a number three? If those numbers are correct, I do that every time given this roster. Every time. They have one starter under contract for next year. One.

He's a rookie and he's pitching better than a 3 right now (albeit in the NL). I guess the question is whether he's peaked or if he'll get better. Typically those guys at that age improve. 

 

and yes, I'd make that trade... or perhaps you do a 55 FV guy and throw in a 45 if you really want to keep one of the top 3.  Either way, I make that trade. 

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Every front office has misses... Add this to the list. Time will tell whether Anderson can sustain an MLB career.

There was a lot of teeth gnashing last year over losing Derek Rodriguez... This year was utterly forgettable for Rodriguez.

Rodriquez to me has the ability of a #4 or #5 starter.  He had a great year last year, this year not so good. His last start was very good, so there is hope. 

Still this leads to concern about the Twins front office, because Rodriquez and Anderson were both lost for nothing and have turned in value elsewhere.

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They've been pretty good discarding players without much of a sting afterwards. Nick Anderson is just one example out of dozens of players they let go. The others haven't made an impact at all at the MLB level. So with that being said, I agree. I think they're doing a good job trimming the fat each year.

Other than Nick Anderson this year, and Derek Rodriguez last year, are there other examples of players the Twins discarded and proved them wrong? Do we still wish JT Chargois is still in the organization? How about Nick Burdi? Or John Curtiss?

I still put the Pressly trade as #1, with a bullet, Falvine's biggest mistake.

 

I will take the progress that has been made and be thankful for the progress that has been made by this front office and I really don't like being on the critical side of them because I am truly thankful. 

 

No matter what I type below, I want it understood, I am over the moon happy with our front office and manager. 

 

To address your questions or points.

 

1. The majority of discards are obvious. They won't produce a sting because they were obvious. 

 

2. In the case of discards that could sting... they typically won't sting because they won't get the opportunity from other organizations to sting. They might get 10 "prove it now" innings or 10 "prove it now" AB's

 

3. Nick Anderson is a pretty stunning miss "by himself" when you consider that we just released 4 relief pitchers in July and gave Matt Belisle a 25 man roster spot last summer during a "we are a seller" season. 

 

4. Nick Anderson was traded, we kept DeJong, Vazquez, Moya. This is a bad miss in an area of acute need. 

 

5. Yes I wish we still had Chargois. He has had options since leaving Minnesota. He still has a 40 man spot with the Dodgers. 

 

6. Yes I wish we still had Burdi... (well not so much now with his shoulder issue) but yeah, he should be on our 60 day DL. He has 10 IP with Pittsburgh... He got rocked for 5 runs without getting a batter out before landing on the DL and that is going to inflate things with only 10 IP. However, 19 K's over those 10 IP's is pretty impressive. We can't be tossing guys like this away. 

 

7. Curtiss? He's looking like a "no sting" drop but regardless of how he looks now. He should have gotten a longer look than the 6.1 innings he pitched last year in consideration how bad last season was. 

 

8. I think the front office has been great... I'd like them to now handle their pitching staff like they are doing with the offense. Give them playing time and let the cream rise to the top. 25 guys who can play. 

 

9. I think the front office has been great but we wasted a lot of precious time with Morin, Parker and Magill. I wouldn't call them bullpen serious yet... at least as long as they are willing to give Morin a long look and toss aside Anderson, Burdi or Chargois. 

 

10. The Pressly trade was bad but at least we got something in return. In two years the trade could look different but yes it looks bad right now. However with Anderson... we got nothing in return. (Sorry Brian Scales). All we had to do was hand him the ball... SOMEONE GOT IN THE WAY OF THAT HAPPENING and we handed the ball to Belisle instead and then we handed it to DeJong and others instead. We released 4 bullpen arms in July. The bullpen looks a lot different with Anderson and Pressly in it. 

 

11. I sincerely, think the front office is doing a great job.Just being constructive for the future.  :)

 

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I am on record as liking the Pressly trade as he wasn't going to help us in 2018 and the FO had all off season to find someone with stuff that was at least close to what was lost. 

 

They found a player in Marwin Gonzalaz to come close to replacing Escobar's production why couldn't they do that for the pen?  If they would have then the Pressly trade wouldn't have looked so bad but by essentially not replacing that production then yes I agree that trade does look bad.  It didn't have to look bad though.

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I will take the progress that has been made and be thankful for the progress that has been made by this front office and I really don't like being on the critical side of them because I am truly thankful.

 

No matter what I type below, I want it understood, I am over the moon happy with our front office and manager.

 

To address your questions or points.

 

1. The majority of discards are obvious. They won't produce a sting because they were obvious.

 

2. In the case of discards that could sting... they typically won't sting because they won't get the opportunity from other organizations to sting. They might get 10 "prove it now" innings or 10 "prove it now" AB's

 

3. Nick Anderson is a pretty stunning miss "by himself" when you consider that we just released 4 relief pitchers in July and gave Matt Belisle a 25 man roster spot last summer during a "we are a seller" season.

 

4. Nick Anderson was traded, we kept DeJong, Vazquez, Moya. This is a bad miss in an area of acute need.

 

5. Yes I wish we still had Chargois. He has had options since leaving Minnesota. He still has a 40 man spot with the Dodgers.

 

6. Yes I wish we still had Burdi... (well not so much now with his shoulder issue) but yeah, he should be on our 60 day DL. He has 10 IP with Pittsburgh... He got rocked for 5 runs without getting a batter out before landing on the DL and that is going to inflate things with only 10 IP. However, 19 K's over those 10 IP's is pretty impressive. We can't be tossing guys like this away.

 

7. Curtiss? He's looking like a "no sting" drop but regardless of how he looks now. He should have gotten a longer look than the 6.1 innings he pitched last year in consideration how bad last season was.

 

8. I think the front office has been great... I'd like them to now handle their pitching staff like they are doing with the offense. Give them playing time and let the cream rise to the top. 25 guys who can play.

 

9. I think the front office has been great but we wasted a lot of precious time with Morin, Parker and Magill. I wouldn't call them bullpen serious yet... at least as long as they are willing to give Morin a long look and toss aside Anderson, Burdi or Chargois.

 

10. The Pressly trade was bad but at least we got something in return. In two years the trade could look different but yes it looks bad right now. However with Anderson... we got nothing in return. (Sorry Brian Scales). All we had to do was hand him the ball... SOMEONE GOT IN THE WAY OF THAT HAPPENING and we handed the ball to Belisle instead and then we handed it to DeJong and others instead. We released 4 bullpen arms in July. The bullpen looks a lot different with Anderson and Pressly in it.

 

11. I sincerely, think the front office is doing a great job.Just being constructive for the future. :)

We'll agree to disagree on a lot of this... It's simply impossible to keep every single player on the 40 man. Limited spots, you know? All of them would have to be dropped at some point for injury or lack of performance in the case of Chargois. Brace yourselves, there's a huge 40 man roster crunch coming this winter. Other players that may have a moment of greatness in the future will be let go.

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