4th OF Discussion with Hamilton now DFA'd

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Seems as though I might have been confusing him with Duran

No, you were right. Alcala's ERA is lower since moving to relief. That "As reliever" split includes earlier games where he was the "primary" pitcher after an opener.

 

Duran hasn't pitched in relief yet this season (aside from one appearance as a primary after an opener).

[yarnivek1972]

So we can only promote guys after a sufficient sample size of relief innings at AA?

 

Personally l have no idea about Alcala's readiness, but it doesn't seem unreasonable at this point to promote him to the AAA bullpen, with an eye towards potentially promoting him to the MLB bullpen in September.

Promoting him after 10 IP as an actual reliever seems extremely rushed to me. There is really no way to know yet how he will bounce back. Looking at his game logs, he’s been getting 3, 4 or 5 days rest after an 18-30 pitch outing. That isn’t how relievers are used at the MLB level.

 

IMO, you shouldn’t have anyone at AAA that isn’t ready to help at the MLB level.

 

And to bring this back to the 4th OFer aspect, I think Hamilton would be more likely to help in September (and hopefully beyond) than Alcala. And it matters because either would need to be added to 40 man.

[jkcarew]

 

Wade is hurt. So, he is pretty irrelevant to the discussion.

Would it break my heart if the Twins don’t get Hamilton? No. Do they need to improve the 4th OFer spot for the stretch drive and hopefully beyond? Yes. Cave isn’t a good hitter or fielder. At least Hamilton is a good fielder.

Cave career OPS+...106 (92 this year); Hamilton 68 (and 46). There is no amount of fly balls that can be hit that Cave can't get to to make up for that.

 

And Wade has already started his rehab assignment in Cedar Rapids.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Promoting him after 10 IP as an actual reliever seems extremely rushed to me. There is really no way to know yet how he will bounce back. Looking at his game logs, he’s been getting 3, 4 or 5 days rest after an 18-30 pitch outing. That isn’t how relievers are used at the MLB level.

IMO, you shouldn’t have anyone at AAA that isn’t ready to help at the MLB level.

And to bring this back to the 4th OFer aspect, I think Hamilton would be more likely to help in September (and hopefully beyond) than Alcala. And it matters because either would need to be added to 40 man.

In September, with a full 40 man roster at our disposal, we can (and should) use relievers pretty much however we want.

 

Currently active relievers at AAA include DJ Baxendale, Jeremy Bleich, and Preston Guilmet. Are they ready to help at the MLB level? If those guys are part of your AAA pen, I see no reason why Alcala can't be too, even after only 10 relief innings at AA.

 

That said, it's certainly reasonable to prefer Hamilton on the 40-man over another reliever in September. But that hardly means promoting Alcala to AAA right now is unjustified.

[SwainZag]

 

Cave career OPS+...106 (92 this year); Hamilton 68 (and 46). There is no amount of fly balls that can be hit that Cave can't get to to make up for that.

 

And Wade has already started his rehab assignment in Cedar Rapids.

 

If it's in September you can have both.  Cave be your 4th OF spot starter when someone needs a day off or like now when players on the IL, and Hamilton can be your late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner.  They provide different services.  Realistically Hamilton would never see an AB.

[Vanimal46]

Cave career OPS+...106 (92 this year); Hamilton 68 (and 46). There is no amount of fly balls that can be hit that Cave can't get to to make up for that.

 

And Wade has already started his rehab assignment in Cedar Rapids.

The fascination with Billy Hamilton is something else... He's been swinging with a pool noodle for a long time.

[SwainZag]

 

The fascination with Billy Hamilton is something else... He's been swinging with a pool noodle for a long time.

 

The fascination isn't with his bat.  

[stringer bell]

We've all seen the havoc that Buxton can cause by getting on base. I would like to see the Twins have an additional weapon that they can use as a pinch-runner to create that anxiety in the opposition. Billy Hamilton has game-changing speed. Eight days ago, Ehire Adrianza ran for Cron and was thrown out by a mile at home plate. I submit that more often than not, Hamilton scores on the identical play. That was the difference between a win and a loss against the Twins' competition to win the division. We have 13 days left in this month, where supposedly Hamilton would replace current fourth outfielder Jake Cave. I would expect that Cave might start a game or two in the interim, if that. 

 

Hamilton is in some respects more of a threat on the bases than Buxton. He steals against left handers (Buxton's only steal against a lefty this year was when he got picked off and the first baseman made a bad throw to second) and he will steal third base. 

 

It doesn't matter that Cave or Wade are better overall players than Hamilton, it is two aspects of the game--baserunning and outfield defense--that matter. September and playoff rosters are different and there is room for specialists, as Hamilton would be. The cost would be money (a couple million) and a spot on the 40-man roster. There are plenty of guys to cut from the 40-man, as we'll see after the Twins' season ends. 

[USAFChief]

There's no doubt there's a role for Hamilton in September and the post season.

 

The problem is, how do you roster him between now and then?

[yarnivek1972]

There's no doubt there's a role for Hamilton in September and the post season.

 

The problem is, how do you roster him between now and then?

Why do they have to roster him before September? He’s pretty likely to accept a “wink, wink” minor league contract.

[USAFChief]

Why do they have to roster him before September? He’s pretty likely to accept a “wink, wink” minor league contract.

well if that's the case, do it. Activate him the last day of August.

[SwainZag]

 

Why do they have to roster him before September? He’s pretty likely to accept a “wink, wink” minor league contract.

 

Does he have options left?  If so they could swing that, if not he would have to clear waivers.  How long does a team have when claiming a player to actually roster them?  Is it immediate?

[yarnivek1972]

Does he have options left? If so they could swing that, if not he would have to clear waivers. How long does a team have when claiming a player to actually roster them? Is it immediate?

He’s been DFA’ed. That starts the waiver process within 7 days. Assuming he clears, he’s a FA and can sign anywhere, even a milb contract.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

There's no doubt there's a role for Hamilton in September and the post season.

The problem is, how do you roster him between now and then?

 

Easy.  Cron to the 13-day IL (for Sep 1 purposes) to make room for Hamilton.  You're not missing Cron' bat right now, as his thumb clearly is still not right (.221/.284/.382 OPS, 69 wRC+ in 19 second half games).  Cave to AAA when Cruz is ready.  Sano plays every day at 1st, Gonzalez and Adrianza take third base, and a combo of Hamilton (maybe once), Gonzalez, Adrianza, and Arraez handle the outfield until Buxton gets back.

[amjgt]

Anti-Hamilton: The dude can't swing his way out of a phone booth

Pro-Hamilton: His defense and baserunning are great

AH: But he can't get on base

PH: I don't want him to ever take an at bat

AH: You can't roster that guy

PH: You can roster 40 people in September

AH: But he can't hit

PH: I KNOW! I DON'T WANT HIM TO!

 

Buxton is not going to be back until at least September

 

Send Cave down for 10 days and have Hamilton as your 5th outfielder (Gonzalez is #4). If he HAS to be in the starting lineup one day, so be it.

 

Come Sept 1, you call up Cave, your roster crunch is completely gone, and you have a great late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner. Ideally, he never has another PA as a Minnesota Twin.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Cave career OPS+...106 (92 this year); Hamilton 68 (and 46). There is no amount of fly balls that can be hit that Cave can't get to to make up for that.

 

And Wade has already started his rehab assignment in Cedar Rapids.

 

Assuming (and this is a big assumption) that everyone is healthy for September and the playoffs, Cave would barely be hitting anyways; Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler will start every single game.  Therefore, your 4th outfielder needs to be either a clear defensive upgrade to negate the offensive downgrade (advantage Hamilton), or a firestarter on the bases (advantage Hamilton).

 

Jake Cave serves little purpose in the postseason.  Hamilton serves potentially immense purpose in the postseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Does he have options left?  If so they could swing that, if not he would have to clear waivers.  How long does a team have when claiming a player to actually roster them?  Is it immediate?

Hamilton has actually never been optioned! So he has all 3 left. However, he has over 5 years service time, so he has the right to refuse any optional assignment. But it's possible you could get him to agree to a temporary optional assignment -- Anibal Sanchez agreed to one a couple years ago for the Tigers, so he could start in AAA for a bit rather than be buried at the bottom of the MLB pen.

 

That said, keep in mind that claiming him now would put you on the hook for ~$2 mil ($1 mil remaining salary, $1 mil contract option buyout for 2020). Unless you *really* want Hamilton and you *really* are concerned about him landing elsewhere, it's probably better to let him go unclaimed and try to sign him as a free agent for league minimum (roughly $150k the rest of the season).

[Oldgoat_MN]

This 'Jake Cave can't hit' narrative ignores the fact that in the second half of this season he is hitting .405/.465/.595 (1.060). Now that's only in 43 PA, but his July & August has certainly been different than the start of the year.

Someone's going to scream SSS!, but he has definitely been a good hitter of late.

 

So if you want to make a case for Hamilton, fine. The idea that Jake Cave cannot hit should probably not be one of the reasons.

[jkcarew]

 

Assuming (and this is a big assumption) that everyone is healthy for September and the playoffs, Cave would barely be hitting anyways; Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler will start every single game.  Therefore, your 4th outfielder needs to be either a clear defensive upgrade to negate the offensive downgrade (advantage Hamilton), or a firestarter on the bases (advantage Hamilton).

 

Jake Cave serves little purpose in the postseason.  Hamilton serves potentially immense purpose in the postseason.

Good points regarding what you would use him for (theoretically) in the post-season. Still, no thanks...no thanks to the contract, no thanks to the roster spot. No thanks.

[SwainZag]

 

Good points regarding what you would use him for (theoretically) in the post-season. Still, no thanks...no thanks to the contract, no thanks to the roster spot. No thanks.

But why?  The contract amount is moot at this point.  If they could roster him until September, what's the problem?  Not having Cave around for 10 days?  Hamilton on the September roster would make this a stronger a team.  I don't get it.

[jkcarew]

 

The fascination with Billy Hamilton is something else... He's been swinging with a pool noodle for a long time

To be fair, he was still a very good player in 1901.

[Musk21]

Hamilton has been claimed by Atlanta today.

 

[notoriousgod71]

 

There's no doubt there's a role for Hamilton in September and the post season.

The problem is, how do you roster him between now and then?

 

The rotating 13th pitcher could go...

[jorgenswest]

Alcala had an ERA of nearly 6 in AA. Promoting him to AAA was a mistake IMO. I think it was done to give the appearance that they didn’t get fleeced in the Pressly trade.

I sure hope they aren’t making decisions based on ERA.

 

His strike out rate is better in AA this year. His walk rate is down. His xFIP and FIP are below 4. There is reason to believe he will be more successful in relief with his good fastball.

[yarnivek1972]

I sure hope they aren’t making decisions based on ERA.

 

His strike out rate is better in AA this year. His walk rate is down. His xFIP and FIP are below 4. There is reason to believe he will be more successful in relief with his good fastball.

Which are good numbers, not great. They certainly don’t scream “promote me” when he’s 10 innings into a new role.

[gagu]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/braves-claim-billy-hamilton.html

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Which are good numbers, not great. They certainly don’t scream “promote me” when he’s 10 innings into a new role.

Have you considered that internal evaluations are done with metrics we don't even have access to?

[yarnivek1972]

Have you considered that internal evaluations are done with metrics we don't even have access to?

Have you considered that those evaluations could be wrong?

 

What evaluation led this FO to sign Matt Belisle? TWICE. I could list others, but he’s the only guy they went after twice for no good reason.

 

I also have a hard time buying the validity of any metric over a 10 inning sample.

[Mr. Brooks]

Have you considered that those evaluations could be wrong?

 

What evaluation led this FO to sign Matt Belisle? TWICE. I could list others, but he’s the only guy they went after twice for no good reason.

 

I also have a hard time buying the validity of any metric over a 10 inning sample.

Of course they could be wrong. Not sure what I said that implied they couldn't be.

 

And why are we limiting the sample size to 10 innings?

I'm sure they are constantly evaluating these guys, over the entire season.

 

I don't think anyone is disputing that whether they're right or wrong is a valid argument. I think the dispute is much more likely the quite preposterous theory that they are doing it to save face on the trade.

[old nurse]

 

In August, sure. September, I would bet most contenders will.

You can't name one that has.