Trade Deadline is Over and Gone. Where Are the Twins Now and Going Forward?

[DocBauer]

There are still multiple posts about the retrace deadline, which is cool. But it's over and done. Where are the Twins NOW, and what is to come?

 

Reality points:

 

1] The Twins are 66-42 with a 3 game lead in the Central on Thursday the 1st of August. They have the 3rd best record in the AL, and the 4th best record in all of baseball. Games played are not the same, but they are roughly 4 games back from the best record in the AL.

 

2] Ted wrote a great piece a couple of days ago, that I can't find at the moment, that stated the Twins had a winning record against .500 or better teams that would lead to an 88 win season. Think about that for a moment. This current Twins team, even with a few small injuries and an underachieving pen, BEFORE making their past additions, would have an 88 win seaskn if they only pkayed .500 or better teams.

 

3] Don't have all the stats in front of me at the moment, but believe I recently read the Twins rotation ranks 2nd or 3rd in the AL in WAR and IP.

 

4] The Twins have a deep and productive lineup on pace Theto shatter team records and possibly break some ML records.

 

5] The Twins didn't exactly bring in a pair of powerful All Stars for the pen, but brought in a nice couple of proven arms, having fine seasons, with post season experience, and they both deepen and strengthen the pen.

 

Our beloved Twins are, mostly, a collection of very talented and young players. Despite honest misgivings about the pen, it has not been the dumpster fire some state it as being. You don't have the season and record the Twins have if your pen is a complete bust. And now it's deeper, better, more experienced, and has a couple young arms showing potential.

 

The deadline is now done. Moves have been made. Rosters may fluctuate, but they are mostly set. Approximately two months to go before the post season begins.

 

Where is the team NOW? What do you see? How do things play out now? What does the staff and FO do over the next couple of months?

 

Your turn.

[dbminn]

The position players are set. They are deep and talented. Buxton's health is a key to the rest of the season and beyond. Arraez provides a young man's enthusiasm and a veteran's plate discipline. If only there was an OF prospect tearing up AAA, ready to fill in if there's an injury.

 

The starting rotation has proven durable. The front five have started 103 of 108 games. They are also solid, with a 3.78 ERA and 11.9 WAR (a league-average rotation accumulates about 10 WAR for a full season). But the rotation is not deep. The "next man up" is a rookie, most likely Thorpe. They aren't dominant either - outside Berrios. They are vulnerable to injury in the regular season and matchups in the 2nd and 3rd games of a playoff series.

 

As DocB noted, the bullpen has been better than many think. The FO improved BP depth at the deadline, which should save some wear and tear on Rogers. But like the rotation, the BP is not dominant as a group. The Indians, Yankees and Rays have the superior WPA and WAR this season. 

 

Looking forward, I see a legitimate playoff team with some concerns. They are definitely underdogs to the Astros and IMO need home-field advantage to beat the Yankees. The Twins need good health and surprising performances from a couple of RP.

 

 

 

 

[goulik]

It’s not just the best teams that win in the post season but a team that has some clutch hits, 2 to 3 starters that are hitting their spots and have 3 working pitches, and a bullpen with 3 to 4 guys that are putting out the fires when they do happen.

 

Could this be the that team? Yes. But they are the 2nd to 3rd most likely team in the AL to be that team. To be honest, I think we have the edge on the Yankees in starters, offense, and defense. Houston has us in Pitching no doubt but we have the superior offense and comparable all around defense. What the Yankees and Astros both have on us is post season experience.

 

If Arraez, Kepler and Polanco are getting on base and the Bomba Squad hit some home runs with them on board, if Berrios, and Pineda remain consistent as they have been for the past 2 months and Odorizzi is on his game, if Rogers, Harper, Dyson, and Romo are given 3 innings or less per game and handle the pressure, and if Buxtons healthy, we could have a parade. These things are possible.

[Riverbrian]

 

One of my favorite scenes from Apollo 13. The NASA engineers had to figure things out, using only material available in the capsule.  

 

The trade deadline is over. The capsule is in space... the roster is set. You can't go to Walmart to pick up a bullpen arm, duct tape or a heat shield. The team engineers can now only work with the material on the 25-40 man rosters from now until the World Series. 

 

The question Doc is asking with this thread is more important than any anger expressed over Greinke being traded to Houston. It's over... This is the team. What do they do now? 

 

I'll try this again over here. I was getting beat up on a different thread over my "weak points". 

 

Starting Pitching - dbminn does an excellent job in his post above. He hits the nail on the head.  Our starters have made 103 of 108 starts. The rotation has been both lucky and unfortunate to be this healthy into August. Lucky because this kind of health is VERY rare. Unfortunate because this kind of health has hidden who and (how good) is the next man up. Other teams have gotten longer looks at the next man up. It would be pretty strange for this health to continue all the way through the playoffs and the trade deadline is over so when it happens...???

 

I felt that acquiring a starter was the #1 need at the deadline. Acquiring Stroman pushes Perez into the pen so it strengthens the rotation and bullpen with one move. However, we didn't acquire Stroman, Syndergaard or Ray. The front office looked at the prices and said... "THIS IS OUR TEAM", which is a decision that comes with the office position. However, this means that Smeltzer or Thorpe must replace the value that Stroman, Minor or Boyd would have provided us because remaining this HEALTHY is VERY rare.

 

Smeltzer and Thorpe are both small sample sizes and in need of a bigger sample. The team needs to acquire that data now and not wait until an injury that may come on September 29th. Move Perez into the pen immediately, just like you would have, if you acquired Stroman, Greinke or Bundy and give the  rotation spot to Smeltzer or Thorpe.

 

If there are TD readers who are worried that Perez's numbers (as a starter) can't be replaced by Smeltzer or Thorpe. I worry that the fear of not replacing Perez's numbers will cost you the chance to find out if the numbers can be bettered. 

 

Put Perez in the pen right away. 

 

 

[terrydactyls]

When he is done with his rehab assignment, add Graterol to the 25-man roster and use him as the first guy out of the bullpen for the rest of the season. If he shows he can handle it, the bullpen is now ready for the playoffs.

[lukeduke1980]

I think it's time to start a 'stacking' method of planning to use Thorpe, Smeltzer, etc for 3 after Odorizzi or Gibson or Perez give you 4 or 5 good innings, or twice through the lineup.  I anticipated this would be needed before the season but Odorizzi and Perez started off really great.  That will have to be a playoff strategy as well, why wait to implement.

[Doomtints]

Where are the Twins now? Pretty much where they were before, as you say, with the same flaws that they could have addressed.

[jokin]

 

When he is done with his rehab assignment, add Graterol to the 25-man roster and use him as the first guy out of the bullpen for the rest of the season. If he shows he can handle it, the bullpen is now ready for the playoffs.

 

Qualified like. Once certified healthy, I would suggest a little time at AAA and the MLB ball before promoting Graterol. Plus, the Twins should be cautious with him about overuse on multiple consecutive days' appearances.

[rkevin]

For this last 3rd of this season, I like the idea of Smelzer or Thorpe as a starter and put Perez in the BP, someone to come in when the starter flops or can't go 5. Maybe move Pineda to #4 or not and just keep him at the 5 spot. The other guys will fill innings 6-7 and then we go with a combo platter of Dyson and Rogers to close it out at the end, maybe one for the 8th the other for 9th.

 

Also, I would like to see Rocco push the starters to one more inning per game. Sans Berrios, how can he expect them to pitch into the 7th inning if they never pitch into the 7th? The mind set is: starters need to be counted on to lead the team down the home stretch and get to the playoffs and hopefully beyond. Now is the time to take the reigns. Man up. No more pampering. Do what your paid to do.

 

If the process fails, well that's how it goes but at least you tried to get to where you want to be.

[gunnarthor]

Generally we're ok. We're better than Cleveland. I think NY and Houston are clearly better but Oak and Tampa are not. We should be favored in a home series against those two teams while being underdogs with a puncher's chance against the top two. 

 

I think ownership and/or the FO failed the players at this deadline. They should have gotten Stroman and some bullpen help. They didn't. I think the players should be pissed. 

 

I don't think Rocco has managed particularly well the last few weeks and we're burning out the bullpen - of course, every team is burning out their bullpens. But those are solvable issues to some extent - I think Rocco is good enough to get better. There are a few live arms in the minors that could help out by catching fire in the majors for a month.

[beckmt]

I think we are on a par with NY.  They did nothing and we addressed our bullpen.  Twins and Red Sox exposed the Yankees starting rotation, and if our starters and relievers can somewhat hold them in check we can win that matchup.  Astros are the favorites, no doubt.  Cleveland balanced their club, but depending on how there injured starters return, may have less depth than was expected.  

Should be interesting, hope Dyson's night was just a hiccup.

[rdehring]

Thanks Doc for a post that talks about looking forward.  

 

Both Cleveland and the Yankees have problems.  Cleveland doesn't have the pitching they had with Bauer gone.  They also don't have a lineup that has you shaking in your boots.  The Yankees don't have starting pitching, period!  So our prospects aren't that grim in the first round.

 

One need I would like to see addressed is one of the young relievers moving up and pitching himself into position to be an option in the 7th or 8th innings come October.  Who will that be?  I could see it being Littell, either of the lefty starters (Thorpe or Smeltzer), or perhaps Moya.  Yes, Moya has had the most disappointing season of his life.  But I think he had his best outing of the year in his most recent game at Pensacola.  Get him several more appearances in Florida and a couple in Rochester.  Maybe, just maybe, he will be back by August 31.

[Tomj14]

 

I think it's time to start a 'stacking' method of planning to use Thorpe, Smeltzer, etc for 3 after Odorizzi or Gibson or Perez give you 4 or 5 good innings, or twice through the lineup.  I anticipated this would be needed before the season but Odorizzi and Perez started off really great.  That will have to be a playoff strategy as well, why wait to implement.

I am not sure I would call it stacking but I agree when Odorizzi, Perez, and maybe Gibson start Rocco needs to tell Thorpe/Smeltzer I am going to need 3 maybe 4 innings out of you today.

You can not continue to go one relief pitcher an inning for 4 to 5 innings a night almost every night.

Relief pitchers do give up runs and when you are running them out there for that many innings they are bound to give up runs more often they any of us want.

For example May was going to have a few bad games it just sucks they happen to be three in a row.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think we are on a par with NY.  They did nothing and we addressed our bullpen.

 

FWIW, the Yankees bullpen was already better than ours, and they hope to get Betances and Severino back yet this season. They could do some extreme bullpenning this postseason! The Yankees probably should have added a starter, though.

 

Our rotation has been better overall, but some of that difference is some crazy recent results (plus those crazy games in London). I wouldn't expect Tanaka to give up 12 runs in a postseason game.

 

Through July 21st, the Twins rotation had an advantage, with 79/88/95 ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-, but the Yankees were still respectable at 90/97/94. Even now, the Yankees are basically even with us in xFIP-, 94 to 96.

[Doomtints]

 

Generally we're ok. We're better than Cleveland. I think NY and Houston are clearly better but Oak and Tampa are not. We should be favored in a home series against those two teams while being underdogs with a puncher's chance against the top two.

 

I'm slightly more optimistic, I think this team can beat Houston. We're just one bullpen away from standing toe to toe with the Yankees, and alas that's where things will land this year.

 

The Twins should either shoot for the top seed or shoot for the wild card and hope someone else takes out the Yankees before the league championship series.

[DocBauer]

 

One of my favorite scenes from Apollo 13. The NASA engineers had to figure things out, using only material available in the capsule.

 

The trade deadline is over. The capsule is in space... the roster is set. You can't go to Walmart to pick up a bullpen arm, duct tape or a heat shield. The team engineers can now only work with the material on the 25-40 man rosters from now until the World Series.

 

The question Doc is asking with this thread is more important than any anger expressed over Greinke being traded to Houston. It's over... This is the team. What do they do now?

 

I'll try this again over here. I was getting beat up on a different thread over my "weak points".

 

Starting Pitching - dbminn does an excellent job in his post above. He hits the nail on the head. Our starters have made 103 of 108 starts. The rotation has been both lucky and unfortunate to be this healthy into August. Lucky because this kind of health is VERY rare. Unfortunate because this kind of health has hidden who and (how good) is the next man up. Other teams have gotten longer looks at the next man up. It would be pretty strange for this health to continue all the way through the playoffs and the trade deadline is over so when it happens...???

 

I felt that acquiring a starter was the #1 need at the deadline. Acquiring Stroman pushes Perez into the pen so it strengthens the rotation and bullpen with one move. However, we didn't acquire Stroman, Syndergaard or Ray. The front office looked at the prices and said... "THIS IS OUR TEAM", which is a decision that comes with the office position. However, this means that Smeltzer or Thorpe must replace the value that Stroman, Minor or Boyd would have provided us because remaining this HEALTHY is VERY rare.

 

Smeltzer and Thorpe are both small sample sizes and in need of a bigger sample. The team needs to acquire that data now and not wait until an injury that may come on September 29th. Move Perez into the pen immediately, just like you would have, if you acquired Stroman, Greinke or Bundy and give the rotation spot to Smeltzer or Thorpe.

 

If there are TD readers who are worried that Perez's numbers (as a starter) can't be replaced by Smeltzer or Thorpe. I worry that the fear of not replacing Perez's numbers will cost you the chance to find out if the numbers can be bettered.

 

Put Perez in the pen right away.

A very interesting idea! And u totally get your reasoning. But to me it feels a bit extreme. Sort of like, we dont want Buxton to get hurt so we won't play him. Not as extreme or exact, of course.

 

Were the Twins to do something like this, and there is definitely merit, I would propose a firm of 6 man rotation where you still only have 5 rotating starters, but each starter misses a turn and gets their "bullpen work" by actually making an appearance out of the pen. Or by piggybacking another starter by design. I think it accomplishes what you are proposing, or at least works towards that end, while providing additional rest to finish out the season.

[beckmt]

 

FWIW, the Yankees bullpen was already better than ours, and they hope to get Betances and Severino back yet this season. They could do some extreme bullpenning this postseason! The Yankees probably should have added a starter, though.

 

Our rotation has been better overall, but some of that difference is some crazy recent results (plus those crazy games in London). I wouldn't expect Tanaka to give up 12 runs in a postseason game.

 

Through July 21st, the Twins rotation had an advantage, with 79/88/95 ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-, but the Yankees were still respectable at 90/97/94. Even now, the Yankees are basically even with us in xFIP-, 94 to 96.

Yes, but the Yankee rotation is a dumpster fire and ours is better.  If Betances and Severino both return at full strength, the issue get a lot dicer, but if Twins continue to blow out Yankee starters they have a big issue.  If Yankees are able to do effective bullpen games for how long the series lasts, then the Twins have a problem.  Odds of this are small.

[beckmt]

My one fear was that the Yankees would buy the extra bullpen pieces and just go with openers and bullpen.  7 - 8 great relievers was my biggest fear, and Cashman could not pull the trigger on that arrangement.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

. If only there was an OF prospect tearing up AAA, ready to fill in if there's an injury.

 

 

Can you say: Jake Cave?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, but the Yankee rotation is a dumpster fire and ours is better. 

In general, I agree, but:

 

MIN SP vs NYY this year: 29 IP, 7.45 ERA, opponents batting .333/.423/.624, .431 wOBA

 

NYY SP vs MIN this year: 26.1 IP, 8.54 ERA, opponents batting .312/.394/.651, .424 wOBA

 

Yeah, Berrios didn't get a start vs. NYY, but Tanaka didn't get a start vs MIN (and Paxton only got 3 innings due to injury too). The Yankees were also missing Judge/Gregorius/Hicks/Encarnacion for half of these games, and Stanton for all of them. Among Twins regulars, only Sano/Arraez missed the first 3, and Buxton the last 3. So who knows how a short series could play out.

 

Plus the Twins have a solid starting 5, but only the top 4 matter in the playoffs. The Yankees will have a bigger advantage being able to lop off their worst performer, be it Sabathia or Happ, than the Twins will have being able to lop of theirs (Perez?).

 

Yankees top 3 SP by FIP right now: 92 FIP-, 89 xFIP-

 

Twins top 3 SP by FIP right now: 82 FIP-, 91 xFIP-

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My one fear was that the Yankees would buy the extra bullpen pieces and just go with openers and bullpen.  7 - 8 great relievers was my biggest fear, and Cashman could not pull the trigger on that arrangement.

The Yankees already have 4 turning in great performances in 2019, plus Green has been good before and is coming around (1.98 ERA, 11.9 K/9 since June 1st).

 

Can they get two more from among the injured-but-should-return-in-2019 Betances, Severino, Loaisiga, Heller? They've been aggressively promoting prospect Deivi Cruz too -- started the year in high-A, just turned 20 in May, and he's already been pitching in AAA for the last month. (Of course, we all hope Graterol becomes our secret weapon too!)

[scottz]

The position players are solid all around, including the bench. One of the team's strengths, I think, is that they really seem to like each other. The enthusiasm has been great to see, and it lifts all of them, regardless of who is playing. I remember a thread earlier in the year when Sano and Kepler ran into each other in the dugout and both looked kind of pissed off. At the time, I think I said something like, "It's probably nothing, but it could be something." It was most definitely nothing. A team that likes each other is a good team.

 

I have concerns about the rotation even though I've liked what Smeltzer and others have done with their chances as serviceable 5th starters. Berrios and Gibson I'm not especially worried about. Odorizzi has had some concerning moments, as has Perez. Pineda is already at 117 innings over 21 starts. If he keeps that pace for 11 more starts, he'll be at 178 innings - more than he has ever thrown before. That concerns me, though I like what he has done (and would be happy if they extended him another 3).

 

I also have concerns about the bullpen because, as we saw yesterday, a game can very quickly go from a W to an L when the bullpen goes wrong. In the playoffs, you simply can't have an L in a game when you turn it over to the bullpen and are in a strong position to win.

 

Overall, I'm having a great season. It is fun to watch and I feel pretty confident that this team will make the playoffs. And playoff baseball is fun, especially when you have a vested interest in a team.

 

I hope our baseball team wins tonight.

[dbminn]

 

Can you say: Jake Cave?

 

Agreed. I guess I don't think of him as a prospect anymore, but I shouldn't ignore him. 

[mrtwinsfan]

 

Can you say: Jake Cave?

NO

[Thegrin]

After a thorough examination of the facts:  Invest in Maalox & Tums and look for a boom in sales in the Minnesota region. 

[Riverbrian]

 

A very interesting idea! And u totally get your reasoning. But to me it feels a bit extreme. Sort of like, we dont want Buxton to get hurt so we won't play him. Not as extreme or exact, of course.

Were the Twins to do something like this, and there is definitely merit, I would propose a firm of 6 man rotation where you still only have 5 rotating starters, but each starter misses a turn and gets their "bullpen work" by actually making an appearance out of the pen. Or by piggybacking another starter by design. I think it accomplishes what you are proposing, or at least works towards that end, while providing additional rest to finish out the season.

 

Actually, Not really. 

 

It's just an attempt to create more depth. You can create depth by playing your depth to see if they are indeed depth. 

 

Find out now while there are still games to be played... don't wait until you are forced to find out blind due to injury that is probable to happen.  

 

Smeltzer has thrown 21 pretty good innings. A baseball team should be eager to find out if he can throw a pretty good 22, 30, 40 or 50 innings.

 

If he can continue... you've improved your rotation internally and it allows an already vetted Perez to become starting pitching depth that is stashed in the bullpen, and simultaneously (hopefully) improve the bullpen because Perez can knock the bottom rung of the bullpen off the 25 man and join Rogers from the left side.  

 

When the injury happens, Perez can be reinstated into the rotation. Perez is the depth... not Smeltzer. 

 

Basically Smeltzer plays the role Stroman would have. If Stroman comes aboard... Perez hits the bullpen and becomes starting pitching depth stashed in the bullpen. 

 

We didn't sign Stroman... our in house options were good enough to not pay the price, I assume. I'm willing to go along with this... So do it. 

 

If the front office doesn't believe that Smeltzer can out perform Perez and doesn't allow Smeltzer the opportunity to do it and didn't trade for a starter. 

 

The front office failed. Because we needed the depth. 

 

Sometime you got to create your own... and you can't create it, if you don't play it. Smeltzer is the next man up... let's see if he can throw a good 22nd inning... right now. 

[ashbury]

Can you say: Jake Cave?

I avoid uttering that incantation, when I can help it. Too much temptation to include a curse word as a modifier in front.

 

The guy turns 27 this December, so whatever else he is, he's not a prospect anymore.

 

/ edit - he is, however, a major leaguer again, according to reports today

[jorgenswest]

Cave is still exactly the Twins saw when they acquired him. Outfield depth with options. He is good on a corner and below average in center.

 

His ability is probably close to his career numbers of about a 750 OPS and 99 wRC+.

 

That is a valuable guy to have on options but not starter material on a corner. Even as a fourth OF teams are looking for more versatility from their bench. I would expect Wade will be that role next year with Cave getting an opportunity on a weaker team.

[DocBauer]

Cave is still exactly the Twins saw when they acquired him. Outfield depth with options. He is good on a corner and below average in center.

His ability is probably close to his career numbers of about a 750 OPS and 99 wRC+.

That is a valuable guy to have on options but not starter material on a corner. Even as a fourth OF teams are looking for more versatility from their bench. I would expect Wade will be that role next year with Cave getting an opportunity on a weaker team.

I think Cave is a pretty good OF, overall, but not great. I think he is a luxury for this team, despite his disappointing numbers at the ML level. Whether his disappointing production is the result of being in AAA most of the year, or riding the shuttle, I don't know. I suspect he does his best when playing daily, a luxury he hasn't had this year at the ML level.

[DocBauer]

Berrios is our #1 SP and a budding ACE. We still have two months to formulate a post season rotation. We know what and who Odorizzi, Gibson and Pineda are, and what they can be. We have two mkre months for some stuff to sort out.

 

I wonder who are #2 And #3 SP will be.