Need to take a hard look at Sano.

[TheLeviathan]

What did he have for breakfast?  Can we flay him alive for that at least?

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Note to Brock... need Sarcasm tags

 

Given the hilarity of the thread.....I read "empty power" as a real complaint as well.  Fit right in.

[MNT1996]

 

Sanó had a nice weekend in Tampa. Good at-bats, and he was rewarded with hits. Let's see how he does against Cleveland. The Tribe has three good arms going during the weekday series.

 

A larger point is that almost all hitters go hot and cold (Max Kepler is Exhibit A). Sanó's "bad" at-bats and games make me think that he just won't improve. Two games where he had consistently good at-bats doesn't change my opinion either way.

 

Sano has had 50 ABs this season and a couple weeks off an injury rehab. I guarantee you all players will have many "bad" at bats just coming off of rehab. This is no reason to make anyone think he won't improve. If he has terrible at bats consistently with 150 ABs under his belt yeah I can see some red flags, but give this guy a break. He's had 50 ABs.  

[twinsnorth49]

I thought we already had an it's time to panic thread?

[DiscGolfer]

 

Sanó had a nice weekend in Tampa. Good at-bats, and he was rewarded with hits. Let's see how he does against Cleveland. The Tribe has three good arms going during the weekday series.

 

 

Tampa's starters are better than Cleveland's.  Bieber, Carasco, and Bauer haven't been all that good lately or at least not as good as they'er supposed to be.

[DiscGolfer]

 

The draft is Monday thru Wednesday.  Obviously we all know better than the Twins so let the complaining begin!

 

1st round they'll take another SS instead of a pitcher.

[blindeke]

 

I never said Sano can't produce, I'm saying he can't hit his ceiling if he's giving away a full one-third (or more, in this case) of his plate appearances without putting the ball in play.

 

And no, there's nothing different between a strikeout and fly/groundball out. But you're looking at only the negative outcome of a ball in play, not the ~30-35% of the time a batted ball drops safely for a hit. A strikeout has no positive outcome, only a negative.

 

So far this year, Sano has literally hit his ceiling... of Tropicana Field.

[dex8425]

 

What's the difference between a groundball or flyball out and a strikeout when no runners are on base? Nothing. As long as Sano produces around his career OBP and has good RBI and OPS numbers with RISP I have no concerns about how much he strikes out. 

 

Look at Stanton of the Yankees last year. K'd over 33% of his PAs. Had 100 RBIs and 38 HRs with a OPS of .852. Very productive guy. As long as Sano produces (like he has so far), K's shouldn't define him. 

Heck, look at Joey Gallo this year. His strikeout rate is an ASTRONOMICAL 45%. And his OPS is over 1000. He would be in the MVP conversation if the season ended today. I'm not a Joey Gallo fan, but his existence alone is evidence of the MLB era we're in. Lots of 3 true outcome guys. 

[TheLeviathan]

Heck, look at Joey Gallo this year. His strikeout rate is an ASTRONOMICAL 45%. And his OPS is over 1000. He would be in the MVP conversation if the season ended today. I'm not a Joey Gallo fan, but his existence alone is evidence of the MLB era we're in. Lots of 3 true outcome guys.

 

I wanted the Twins to go after him so badly this offseason too!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So far this year, Sano has literally hit his ceiling... of Tropicana Field.

And I question whether a 1.000 OPS is sustainable when mixed with a 40% K rate.

 

We've seen hot starts from Sano before. I think the guy will settle in being, at minimum, an .825-.850 OPS player. That's very good.

 

But he can be better than that, which is my point. His contact rate and the resulting K rate is what is holding him back.

 

In no way am I agreeing with people who want him traded or demoted. That's just pure silliness.

[Jham]

And I question whether a 1.000 OPS is sustainable when mixed with a 40% K rate.

 

We've seen hot starts from Sano before. I think the guy will settle in being, at minimum, an .825-.850 OPS player. That's very good.

 

But he can be better than that, which is my point. His contact rate and the resulting K rate is what is holding him back.

 

In no way am I agreeing with people who want him traded or demoted. That's just pure silliness.

Would you rather trade Sano or Royce Lewis?

[d-mac]

I know I'm late to this thread, but I wanted to throw these career slash lines out there:

 

Player A: .237/.364/.490; wRC+ 123

Player B: .245/.336/.484; wRC+ 118

 

Ratio of XBH to Singles:

Player A: .977

Player B: .884

 

Can you tell who is who?

 

Player A: Adam Dunn

Player B: Miguel Sano

 

Would you dump Adam Dunn, a  routine 40 HR, 100 RBI hitter?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Would you rather trade Sano or Royce Lewis?

 

Kind of a false dichotomy is it not? You can keep both...

 

and in terms of adding talent at the deadline that helps this team, Sano will not do it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Would you rather trade Sano or Royce Lewis?

Both, probably for a reliever.

[Riverbrian]

 

Would you rather trade Sano or Royce Lewis?

 

[Jham]

Both, probably for a reliever.

So you're a Sano hater AND a Lewis hater! Obviously the twins aren't your favorite team...

[lukeduke1980]

I was on the 'consider trading him' side, but remembered the benefit of having Sano under Nelson Cruz's tutelage for another year and a half.  Let him continue to learn and be a solid number 6 or 7 hitter.

[Thegrin]

Sometimes we forget that baseball is a team sport and Sano is just part of the team, for better or worse. 

[Trov]

I did not read full thread, but for those that want him traded, what would you get for him if you feel his value is so low he needs to be dumped, what team will value him high at this point?  So you trade him for barely anything and say he becomes Ortiz, then everyone will freak out about how we just let him go.  Now am saying he will become him no, but look at their times with Twins, very similar numbers and issues.  Ortiz had slightly lower K rate, but so did the league.  

 

What a problem the Twins have right now, a guy with 30 plus HR potential batting 6th, when whole lineup is healthy.  Would I be open to trading him if right deal comes along, sure, but I would be open to trading any player for right deal.  I would not trade him at this point, he is just getting into prime, seems to have dropped some weight and now we have new staff to hopefully teach him something.  

 

I just do not see the value to trade him now.  Why sell low?  I mean how much lower can his value be?  So you get maybe a rental bullpen 7th inning guy now.  Best case, he grows into monster hitter for 4 to 5 years, if not longer.  Worst case, bottom drops out and he is DFA or non-tendered and we get nothing.  Is a rental bullpen guy really worth the risk he blows up in his late 20's?  I think not. 

[Jham]

I did not read full thread, but for those that want him traded, what would you get for him if you feel his value is so low he needs to be dumped, what team will value him high at this point? So you trade him for barely anything and say he becomes Ortiz, then everyone will freak out about how we just let him go. Now am saying he will become him no, but look at their times with Twins, very similar numbers and issues. Ortiz had slightly lower K rate, but so did the league.

 

What a problem the Twins have right now, a guy with 30 plus HR potential batting 6th, when whole lineup is healthy. Would I be open to trading him if right deal comes along, sure, but I would be open to trading any player for right deal. I would not trade him at this point, he is just getting into prime, seems to have dropped some weight and now we have new staff to hopefully teach him something.

 

I just do not see the value to trade him now. Why sell low? I mean how much lower can his value be? So you get maybe a rental bullpen 7th inning guy now. Best case, he grows into monster hitter for 4 to 5 years, if not longer. Worst case, bottom drops out and he is DFA or non-tendered and we get nothing. Is a rental bullpen guy really worth the risk he blows up in his late 20's? I think not.

I mean the same logic works in reverse. If he's got so much upside, why would his value be so low? He's a high floor, high ceiling guy with years of control remaining. Both competitive and rebuilding teams should be interested.

 

Maybe this isn't my argument since I'm not in favor of dumping him for peanuts. I'd certainly be open to a trade for fair return.

[BrianTrottier]

 

I just do not see the value to trade him now.  Why sell low?  I mean how much lower can his value be?  So you get maybe a rental bullpen 7th inning guy now.  Best case, he grows into monster hitter for 4 to 5 years, if not longer.  Worst case, bottom drops out and he is DFA or non-tendered and we get nothing.  Is a rental bullpen guy really worth the risk he blows up in his late 20's?  I think not. 

 

Except that his value is not low. He's already put up .8 fWAR in 13 games, which would put him on pace for about 5 if he played just half of the team's games this year. I think most people would expect that pace to normalize a bit, but his numbers don't seem so gaudy as to be completely unsustainable. The guy is mashing ball even with the too-high K rate.

 

[Trov]

 

Except that his value is not low. He's already put up .8 fWAR in 13 games, which would put him on pace for about 5 if he played just half of the team's games this year. I think most people would expect that pace to normalize a bit, but his numbers don't seem so gaudy as to be completely unsustainable. The guy is mashing ball even with the too-high K rate.

I agree with you, he is doing just fine, my comment was to the original post, that he needs to be dumped because he will never figure it out and the claim he is not performing well.  I see no way he is traded this year.  He will either hit well and Twins will keep him, or he hits poorly and no team will want him for any value.  

[Zephrin]

 

Except that his value is not low. He's already put up .8 fWAR in 13 games, which would put him on pace for about 5 if he played just half of the team's games this year. I think most people would expect that pace to normalize a bit, but his numbers don't seem so gaudy as to be completely unsustainable. The guy is mashing ball even with the too-high K rate.

 

Is there such a thing as a too-high K rate anymore?  Look at the praise being heaped on Joey Gallo this year, and his K rate often approaches 40% for a year.  (It's 35.5% in 2019.)  As long as Sano keeps taking his walks and mashing doubles and homers he will have significant value.  

 

You also have to put his production into context within the team.  As a team, the Twins aren't striking out very much, so having one "true outcome" player in the lineup works. Plus, Sano's OBP is above .350.  Even with a bit of regression, as long as he keeps it above .325 (which is what Buxton's OBP is right now and folks aren't complaining about him) he will be a valuable cog in the massive hitting attack.  

[Mike Sixel]

He's literally putting up superstar numbers right now. He's on pace for an 8-9 fwar season if he played 155 games. Those are Trout numbers....

 

If he's half that good, he'd be the Twins best player, or maybe second best.

[Doomtints]

Some perspective:

 

Every hitter swings at pitches they shouldn't. Every hitter takes pitches they shouldn't. Joe Mauer did it. Kirby Puckett did it. Bombo Rivera did it.

 

When you look at a hitter pitch-by-pitch instead of at-bat by at-bat, all you are seeing is your own confirmation bias.

 

Sano has been an MVP-caliber player in his 13 games so far. That's it. The end.

 

Will he keep it up? Most players don't hit at his level for a full season, so figure that out yourself. Those who hit like he has been hitting for 3/4 of a season win MVP trophies.

 

We all agree that Rosario had a great year last year -- but he sucked after the all star break. His great numbers last year are all based on the first half alone.

 

This is true for pitchers as well as hitters. Lincecum won two Cy Young awards and 20-30% of his pitches bounced in the dirt on the way to the plate. If you looked at him at the pitch level, you'd think he was terrible in those years.

I have seen this for years as I hounded around Twins boards. Someone decides they don't like a player, they make a thread about it using some stat they think supports their bias, but the player is actually playing well. I'd be happier if people were just honest and simply said they don't like the player and don't try to back it up with irrelevant data.

[woolywoolhouse]

If his swing-and-miss tendencies continue, then come post-season Marwin Gonzalez is your starting third basemen and Sano becomes a strong righty off the bench when the opposing team's manager puts in a lefty to throw to Kepler or Castro. 

[Doomtints]

 

I know I'm late to this thread, but I wanted to throw these career slash lines out there:

 

Player A: .237/.364/.490; wRC+ 123

Player B: .245/.336/.484; wRC+ 118

 

Ratio of XBH to Singles:

Player A: .977

Player B: .884

 

Can you tell who is who?

 

Player A: Adam Dunn

Player B: Miguel Sano

 

Would you dump Adam Dunn, a  routine 40 HR, 100 RBI hitter?

 

Player A: 2001 games of statistical data
Player B: 394 games of statistical data

 

Sano had one bad year. ONE ... and that year is not even half as bad as Dunn's worst year was. Sano's one bad year is part of a much smaller sample. I get it that the year is fresh in our memories, but come on....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is there such a thing as a too-high K rate anymore?  Look at the praise being heaped on Joey Gallo this year, and his K rate often approaches 40% for a year.  (It's 35.5% in 2019.)  As long as Sano keeps taking his walks and mashing doubles and homers he will have significant value.

Gallo's walk rate is also an insane 19.6%. And his BABIP is an unsustainable .385 (career .273).

 

Sano can be productive with a K rate north of 37% but his production will be limited somewhat because he walks back to the dugout in over one-third of his plate appearances.

 

I don't think anyone here is asking Sano to cut that K rate to 20% and become a contact guy but it'd be nice if he could cut at least 4-5% off that K rate, preferably one or two points more than that.

[twins1095]

 

Gallo's walk rate is also an insane 19.6%. And his BABIP is an unsustainable .385 (career .273).

 

Sano can be productive with a K rate north of 37% but his production will be limited somewhat because he walks back to the dugout in over one-third of his plate appearances.

 

I don't think anyone here is asking Sano to cut that K rate to 20% and become a contact guy but it'd be nice if he could cut at least 4-5% off that K rate, preferably one or two points more than that.

 

 

If we look at what Sano IS and not what he COULD be.  He IS a 35+ HR 30+ 2B 100 RBI ~.335-340 OBP.810-820 OPS player per 162 games.  Which means that even if he does not play 162 games, at a per game production level he produces at that level when healthy.

 

All of those numbers would essentially rank 1st or 2nd on the Twins.  That is what Sano IS.  The strikeout numbers and issues do not PREVENT him from being that level of player above.  The strikeout numbers prevent Sano from performing above that level, which is essentially the difference from a good player and an elite player.

 

Again just to be clear, based on his career thus far...that is what Sano IS now.  There is no debate, no argument, and no other opinion.  If we're going to start a debate, we have to start from that as a foundation based on his first 2500-3000 plate appearances of production.  

 

Do we want to keep a player around who profiles as a .340 OBP - 30 2B - 35 HR - 100 RBI player with some potential upside for another gear? 

 

Basically the question is, do we want to keep around a player who gets on base more, hits for more power, and drives in more runs than just about any player on the Twins except a healthy Cruz and in some categories maybe Polanco (OBP) and Rosario (power numbers) albeit with injury concerns that do cause worry about his ability to ever string together a fully healthy season?

 

In my opinion, despite the health concerns...the current career production per game numbers plus the potential for more is worth the injury concerns especially when you realize that he's probably (for the long-term) the Twins second most productive hitter on the roster behind Polanco.  Although I do recognize that there is an argument for Rosario.  

 

Average matters much less than on base percentage.   If a guy gets on base and hits for power that is literally the model and formula for value.

 

The strikeouts only matter if they prevent Sano from getting on base and hitting for the power numbers.  It hasn't, at least it hasn't prevented him from putting up better power numbers and getting on base more than any other Twins player other than Cruz for his career.   (Some Twins are having career years that surpass that production this year)

 

For example, Rosario does not have a single year in his career where he has gotten on base as much as Sano's career average.  Neither does Kepler.   I think Polanco has one year at Sano's career average before this season.

 

Why do you all care about strikeouts when he hits for more power and gets on base more than guys with less strikeouts?  Some of you would rather we put a guy in the lineup that will get on base less, drive in less runs, hit less extra base hits, and score less runs just to get more groundouts and popups instead of strikeouts...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Doomtints]

Thank you.